The Cesarewitch

The Cesarewitch is a Handicap over 2m 2f

Below I have for you some questions I asked myself about how certain elements of form have fared on previous runnings of this race.

I then go on to assess several runners and conclude with my provisional shortlist. I hope it is of some help or interest to you.

 

Cesarewitch Past Winner Profiling


How Exposed are they ?

* Past winners had these career runs (any code)
* 28 37 13 25 10 51 19 13 34 13 21 46 15 23
* I would ignore any horse with under 10 runs

How Many Flat runs does it take ?

* Past winners had these Flat Only runs
* 28 37 13 25 10 17 11 8 34 13 8 23 15 12
* I would want at least 8 runs on the Flat
* Both that won with 8 runs had extra NH runs

Does hurdling form matter ?

* Past winners had these Previous Hurdle runs
* 0 0 0 0 0 23 8 5 0 0 14 18 0 11
* The last 5 winners had never been hurdling

How do Chasers get on ?

* Past winners had these Previous Chase runs
* 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
* The last 5 winners had never been Chasing
* The majority of recent winners had not been chasing

How many runs do you want this season ?

* Past winners had the following runs this year
* 15 6 5 7 7 6 7 4 6 2 5 9 4 5
* I would insist on at least 4 runs this season
* More than 7 runs is fine but 4-5-6-7 runs are best

How important is a recent run ?

* Past winners had the following days absence
* 13 16 29 21 36 70 27 191 37 56 112 21 13 105


What Level of Class should you have achieved ?

* You need form in at least Class 2 Grade before
* 23 of the last 24 winners had that the exception 1995
* 5 of the last 6 winners had Group Form before
* Horses coming from a Group Class race won 2 races
* Both horses came from the Group 2 Doncaster Cup

Can you win after a disappointing last run ?

* The winner should have run well last time
* Ideally you should be 1-2-3-4-5-6-7 last time
* Look at horses beaten 10 + Lengths last time out
* They had a miserable 1-236 record since 1990
* That winner was beaten in a National Hunt race too
* No horse has won this beaten 10 + Lengths on the flat

How do Female horses get on ?

* Female horses have a 3-56 record
* The 3 winners were aged 4 7 4
* They all ran within 6 weeks from 2m or shorter
* They all had at least 13 career starts

Any clues from the previous race a winner had ?

* All 66 horses that ran over 12f or less last time lost
* Horses with Less than 2 career wins are 0-100
* Horses that have penalties are 2-70

* Look at horses that ran on the Flat in the last 6 weeks
* Those that came from handicaps over 2m 1f or more
* All 53 horses that tried that lost
* Look at horses that ran on the Flat in the last 6 weeks
* Horses from a Class 2 Handicap are just 1-96
* If you have a recent flat run
* It needs to be over 2m or shorter in a Class 3 race
* 5 winners had this profile
* Consider those aged 4 + with 13 or more career starts
* Look at those beaten under 4 lengths last time
* This brings a very interesting 5-28 profile
* This includes the winners in 2013 2011 2010 2002 1999
* 3 of the last 4 winners had this profile
* You won't find a better profile than this in the race

What is the record of different Age groups ?

* Horses aged 3 have a 3-65 record since 1990 (4.65%)
* Horses aged 4 have a 5-247 record since 1990 (2.02%)
* Horses aged 5 have a 3-164 record since 1990 (1.84%)
* Horses aged 6 have a 5-119 record since 1990 (4.20%)
* Horses aged 7 have a 4-77 record since 1990 (5.19%)
* Horses aged 8-9-10-11 have a 4-65 record since 1990 (6.15%)
* This shows 5 year olds have the worst strike rate
* They have won just 1 of the last 18 renewals
* Horses aged 7 or more are 8-142
* That is a good record compared to other ages


What type of 3 year old wins this ?

* 3 year olds have a 3-65 record
* Horses aged 3 had the following career starts
* 10 11 9
* Horses aged 3 had the following runs this season
* 7 9 4
* Horses aged 3 had the following days absence
* 36 22 41
* You want a certain type of 3yo ideally with 9-12 starts
* Those with less (0-25) or more (0-121) have yet to win
* 3 year olds with under 3 career wins (0-32) struggle
* All 3 year old winners were 1-2-3 last time

What type of 4 year old wins this ?

* 4 year olds have a 5-247 record
* Horses aged 4 had the following career starts
* 28 13 13 15 10
* Horses aged 4 had the following runs this season
* 15 5 4 4 5
* Horses aged 4 had the following days absence
* 13 29 191 13 14
* 4yo's with 16 + runs on the Flat had a 1-110 record
* That winner was last year and a filly
* Male 4yo's with more than 15 runs were 0-76
* Male 4yo's are best with 10-15 runs and 4-5 runs that year
* Horses aged 4 all had at least 4 runs this season
* No winning 4 year old had previous Group class form

What type of 5 year old wins this ?

* 5 year olds have a 3-164 record
* Horses aged 5 had the following career starts
* 13 18 7
* Horses aged 5 had the following runs this season
* 2 1 4
* Horses aged 5 had the following days absence
* 56 29 28
* Small sample size but all 3 were lightly raced this year
* All 3 winners aged 5 were unexposed with under 21 runs
* Look at Male horses aged 4 or 5
* When having 20 or more runs they are 0-104

What type of 6 year old wins this ?

* 6 year olds have a 5-119 record
* Horses aged 6 had the following career starts
* 25 19 34 23 21
* Horses aged 6 had the following runs this season
* 7 7 6 5 8
* Horses aged 6 had the following days absence
* 21 27 37 105 24
* All 6 year old winners had over 20 runs
* They all had 5--7-8 runs that season

What type of 7 year old wins this ?

* 7 year olds have a 4-77 record
* Horses aged 7 had the following career starts
* 46 46 54 58
* Horses aged 7 had the following runs this season
* 9 9 10 17
* Horses aged 7 had the following days absence
* 21 11 57 23
* All winning 7 year olds were very experienced
* They all had at least 9 runs that season

How do Older horses get on ?

* 8-9-10-11 year olds have a 4-65 record
* Horses aged 8-9-10-11 had the following career starts
* 37 51 21 53
* Horses aged 8-9-10-11 had the following runs this season
* 6 6 5 2
* Horses aged 8-9-10-11 had the following days absence
* 16 70 112 28
* Most horses aged 8 + had 5 + runs that year
* The only one that wasn't was controversial Top Cees


My Thinking On The Runners

* I want a fit horse to win a race like this
* Past winners had the following runs this year
* 15 6 5 7 7 6 7 4 6 2 5 9 4 5
* I would insist on at least 4 runs this season
* More than 7 runs is fine but 4-5-6-7 runs are best
* The following horses are underraced this year
* NEARLY CAUGHT only has 3 runs this year
* All 4yo winners had more and none Group form like him
* His Sire has only 2 mile winners in Class 5 or lower
* None have won further and he is opposed
* EARTH AMBER is out as a mare with 1 run since April
* The big field worries me about her as well
* MUBARAZA is too short of runs this season
* There are 5yo winners not too dissimilar to him
* A poor last run damages his profile
* Horses from recent Handicaps over 17f + are 0-53 in this
* I don't want to rely on his trainer either
* All 53 horses that tried that lost
* VERY GOOD DAY has to go with 1 run this year
* BIG EASY is short of runs as an exposed 7yo
* All winners his age had considerably more runs
* Just 3 this year and 1 run in the last 154 days worries me
* BIG EASY also comes from a recent 18f handicap
* Horses from recent Handicaps over 17f + are 0-53 in this
* SULA TWO is short of runs this season
* MR BURBIDGE is unlikely to be fit enough
* SADDLER´S ROCK isn't really the right type
* Not keen on the combination of weight or absence
* The winner should have run well last time
* Ideally you should be 1-2-3-4-5-6-7 last time
* Look at horses beaten 10 + Lengths last time out
* They had a miserable 1-236 record since 1990
* That winner was beaten in a National Hunt race too
* No horse has won this beaten 10 + Lengths on the flat
* VILLA ROYALE - GABRIAL´S KING fail this
* SOHAR - DEBDEBDEB also fail this
* VILLA ROYALE is the wrong type of 5yo
* GABRIAL´S KING is also the wrong type of 5yo
* Coming from a 18f Class 2 handicap is a negative too
* DEBDEBDEB has to prove she can stay
* None of her sires long distance winners were in Class 4 +
* SOHAR is unsafe as mare drawn 36 with few recent runs
* SIR FRANK MORGAN has the wrong preparation
* No 4yo male has won as exposed as he is
* Male 4yo's are best with 10-15 runs and 4-5 runs that year
* RAY WARD does have that profile so is respected
* He does have flaws in other areas
* No winning 4 year old had previous Group class form
* RAY WARD has that so is not like the other 4yo winners
* He also comes from a recent Class 2 handicap over 17f +
* We know all 53 horses doing this were beaten
* ARGENT KNIGHT has the same problem
* He is not in the correct range of 4 year old winners
* SEE AND BE SEEN has the same problems as well
* GROOVEJET is the only 3 year old in the race
* The problem is she is a 3yo filly
* All 11 of those lost and none finished better than 6th
* She must be a doubtful stayer as well
* SWNYMOR is 5 and has 21 career runs
* He is more exposed than any 5yo winner
* Not by much but he isn't in the right range
* He is also absent longer than any 5yo winner
* His wins are all small fields in lower grades
* His Sire has yet to prove he gets stayers over this far
* One or two issues that just put me off him
* NOBLE SILK isn't the right kind of 5 year old
* LADY KASHAAN is wrong as an exposed 5yo mare
* MOIDORE has been busier than any 5yo winner
* He did run well in this race last year though
* I can see a case for him but he isn't like any winners
* Look at horses that ran on the Flat in the last 6 weeks
* Those that came from handicaps over 2m 1f or more
* All 53 horses that tried that lost
* MOIDORE has that to overcome as well
* He hasn't proved he is this class yet
* GABRIAL´S STAR is the wrong type of 5yo
* He lacks the class to win this
* WATERCLOCK is up too far in class
* KNIGHTLY ESCAPADE won't have the class
* Not off bottomweight and stepping up 2 grades
* SPICE FAIR also has Class issues
* He is 0-16 in Class 3 and higher
* He has a career high mark as well
* LAUGHING JACK looks out of his depth
* TED SPREAD is 7 and absent 140 days
* He is underraced for a horse his age
* JONNY DELTA is not close enough to the 7yo winners
* He also comes from the wrong type of race
* No horse aged 6 or more had under 19 runs
* DIGEANTA is wrong as a 7yo with 10 runs
* TEAK won last time over hurdles
* That's not an orthodox profile in this race
* Very few winners manage that and none won last time
* BRASS RING has plenty of positives
* Not far off the ideal 4 year old with 9 runs and 6 this year
* Two winners came from the Doncaster Cup like him
* Neither were 4 year olds though so he isn't perfect
* His Sires runners have yet to win beyond 2m as well
* QUICK JACK has a mixed profile
* He has raced just once since last January
* He has had only 2 previous runs in 2014 so far
* What few 5yo winners there are did have light seasons
* They were also unexposed as he is
* His runs this year should not been seen as negative
* He does fit the 5yo pattern uncomfortable as it may be
* There are doubts and he isn't a great price
* He is absent longer than the other 5yo winners
* His Sire (Footstepsinthesand) has only had 2m winners
* QUICK JACK is the first to try and win beyond 2m
* On his profile - He Should be shortlisted
* I am not doing that based on a) price b) Stamina concerns

 

This is my provisional shortlist on Friday


* DE RIGUEUR has positives in his profile
* I don't have any major issues with him
* I just hope he hasn't lost his form late season
* He was improving in summer but 2 average races since

* RHOMBUS has a nice level of exposure
* He could have been a very good profile
* The only problem is he comes from a 12f race
* All 66 horses that ran over 12f or less last time lost
* RHOMBUS won over 12f last time
* He is up in the weights and in Class and distance

* COMMUNICATOR is the right type of 6 year old
* The right exposure, runs this year and absence
* His Sire Motivator has bred a Cesarewitch winner
* He's also bred a Cesarewitch Trial winner
* He was badly drawn last time yet still ran well
* He could win this off his current rating

* SUEGIOO is an unexposed 5 year old
* I see him as the right type of 5 year old
* He's a Chester Cup winner so can handle big fields
* His Sire was responsible for last years winner as well
* You can argue he looks badly handicapped off 102
* That said he has some big numbers
* 3 of his last 4 Racing Post Ratings are higher than 102
* His best 4 runs on those numbers were his last 4 races
* They used to say he was quirky but he's grown up

 

Final Selection

Still deciding.

It will be given to Full and Saturday Day Pass members in Saturday's message.

 

 

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Best Wishes

Guy Ward

 

 


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