This is a copy of Cheltenham Betting Advice
from a past year.
It's just a sample really to demonstrate to you
the style of service message provided to our clients
here.
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Cheltenham 3.20
BetVictor Queen Mother Champion Chase
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m
9/4 Sire De Grugy, 9/2 Captain Conan, 11/2 Arvika
Ligeonniere
7/1 Baily Green, 10/1 Hinterland, 10/1 Kid Cassidy
12/1 Sizing Europe 14/1 Module, 14/1 Somersby
20/1 Special Tiara 25/1 Wishfull Thinking.
* This is a Grade 1 Chase over 2 miles
* The form horse is clearly SIRE DE GRUGY
* He tops the Official ratings and Racing Post
Ratings
* There are doubts if you want to oppose him
* He has never been to a Cheltenham Festival before
* That's unusual and his Cheltenham form is questionable
* There is more than a suspicion this may not
be his track
* His Jockey is talented but is hardly a positive
* Jamie Moore is 0-55 riding at the festival
* SIRE DE GRUGY has also had a busier season than
I'd want
* The last few winners had the following runs
that season
* 2 2 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 1 4 4 4 2 4 5 3 7 3
* SIRE DE GRUGY has 5 runs this season
* That is more than the last 17 winners had
* I think there are plenty of doubts about him
* Horses aged 11 + rarely have the Speed to win.
* They did win in 2005 and 1977 but are best opposed
* The age of recent winners is as follows
* 9-9-9-6-5-6-8-11-7-9-8-8-9-10-10-7-8-7-8-8-8-9-8-9
* SIZING EUROPE wouldn't interest me as a 12yo
* This race started in 1959 and only the 1977
winner was 12
* WISHFUL THINKING is 11 and makes limited appeal
* Horses aged 10 haven't won since 1998
* BAILY GREEN has 21 previous Chase runs which
is a lot
* Past winners had the following number of Chase
starts
7 7 9 13 12 8 9 8 22 8 11 18 23 4 24 12 11 11
18 14 9 15 14 8
* The last 8 winners had 7-13 Chase runs
* There are some before that with a similar number
of runs
* He was 2nd in an Arkle so should be respected
* He comes here losing his last 9 races though
* Well beaten over hurdles last time doesn't inspire
either
* His 21 Chase runs produced a best 158 Racing
Post Rating
* That should not be good enough to win
* There are horses in this race with better ratings
last time
* Arvika Ligeonniere, Captain Conan, Sire De Grugy,
Wishfull Thinking
* These 4 horses recorded better Racing Post Ratings
last time out
* They had better ratings that BAILY GREEN has
in 21 Chase starts
* I may be wrong in looking at this approach
* I appreciate the ratings are all under different
circumstances
* It still puts me off BAILY GREEN in a Grade
1 off level weights
* HINTERLAND is a 6 year old
* It would worry me he has just 5 Chase starts
* Recent winners had the following number of Chase
starts
* 7-7-13-12-8-9-8-22-8-11-18-23-4-24-12-11-11-18-14-9-15-14-8.
* Since 1989 only 1 winner had under 7 Chase starts
* That was the 1999 winner who had 4 Chase starts
* The 2007 winner was 6 but the hot favourite
fell that year
* The last 6 year old to win before that was in
1973
* HINTERLAND - You don't want a 6yo with just
5 Chase runs
* KID CASSIDY has to be given a chance
* His career best run has come over 2m at Cheltenham
* His last run was poor though not a good sign
* 30 of the last 32 winners were 1-2-3 last time
out
* The only 2 that were not both fell
* No winners have won after such a poor run as
he had
* MODULE - I just don't see enough I like
* SPECIAL TIARA disappointed last time out
* I can forgive that on heavy ground in a small
field
* He was beaten here in December over 2m
* He was 3rd behind Kid Cassidy and Sire De Grugy
* SPECIAL TIARA was really having his seasonal
debut that day
* He'd fallen at the first on his first run of
the year
* He has to improve but it's not a huge amount
to find
* ARVIKA LIGEONNEIRE has the track to overcome
* 8 of his 9 career wins were going right handed
* His 2 Cheltenham runs were both well below expectations
* So much class I couldn't rule him out
* There are too many doubts about track and ground
* CAPTAIN CONAN is the type to win at the Festival
* He looked like winning last years Jewson but
didn't stay
* This 2m distance could suit him best of all
* CAPTAIN CONAN has 6 Chase starts
* Recent winners had the following number of Chase
starts
* 7-7-13-12-8-9-8-22-8-11-18-23-4-24-12-11-11-18-14-9-15-14-8.
* CAPTAIN CONAN is 1 short of being ideal
* I can overlook that much as I'd prefer 7 Chase
runs
* I also have to overlook just 1 run this season
* Past winners had the following runs that year
* 2 2 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 1 4 4 4 2 4 5 3 7 3
* Only 8yo Flagship Uberalles has won with 1 run
this year
* Said to be working well after a back injury
* I see him as a potential winner but I need to
turn a blind eye
* To his 6 Chase runs and just 1 run this season
Part of me wants to go with CAPTAIN CONAN each
way
and to ignore my concerns instead relying on the
skills
of Nicky Henderson who is sure to have him close
to his
best. Everyone knows ARVIKA LIGEONNEIRE's flaws
but
surely 8/1 is a big price. Then I decided to review
what
I feared most about SIRE DE GRUGY. I decided to
isolate
2m Cheltenham performances on Racing Post Ratings.
Racing Post Ratings
Cheltenham runs only
2 Miles only
Since 2012
174 Sizing Europe
170 Sire De Grugy Sizing Europe
162 Kid Cassidy Wishful Thinking
161 Special Tiara
158 Baily Green
157 Wishful Thinking
155 Somersby
154 Captain Conan
147 Kid Cassidy
Sizing Europe has the best figure and joint 2nd
best
which were recorded at the 2012 and 2013 Festivals.
I don't want to go with him as a 12 year old but
clear
2nd best is SIRE DE GRUGY with a course &
distance
Racing Post Rating of 170 which is 8lbs higher
than
all other runners. This leads me to think that
there's
no real case for saying he doesn't like the track
and
it will surely be difficult to rule him out of
the 1-2-3.
It won't be palatable to some but we are talking
just
11 runners of which 4 are outsiders and 1/4 the
odds.
SIRE DE GRUGY 3/1 Each Way is a good bet
However
SOMERSBY is 16/1
SOMERSBY is also in the "Without the favourite"
market
This is betting without SIRE DE GRUGY
14/1 Ladbrokes
12/1 Corals PPower Chandler
10/1 Bet365
9/1 Boyles
Now I appreciate 10 years old is a bit older
than ideal
I appreciate he doesn't have the best record
here and
it is not his course and you can argue he has
had his
chance. But he was 2nd in an Arkle and placed
in the
Supreme Novice. He has placed in a Grade 1 here
as
well and he is effective. It's not his ideal track
but the
horse has some good runs here before.
Besides that people are saying Sire De Grugy
doesn't
like this track and Arvika Ligeonniere hates it
as well.
No Sprinter Sacre. This must be the worst Champion
Chase for donkey's years. He likes a small field
and a
quicker surface as well. He surely must be the
value
He won the Haldon Gold Cup just 3 runs ago
He was then 2nd in the Tingle Creek just behind
Sire De Grugy
Last time he unseated rider but he was only 11/4
to beat
Sire De Grugy in that race and now he is much
bigger.
Final Selection
"Without the favourite" market
SOMERSBY 12/1 or 14/1 Each Way
Anyone who can't get on this market can
bet SOMERSBY each way 16/1 in this race.
SIRE DE GRUGY 3/1 - Saver Bet
Saver Bets
Just to clarify the issue with Savers. When I
suggest
a saver the purpose is to make sure you break
level
on the bet if the saver wins. The main selection
will
be the horse to try and get the profit. The saver
has
the job of recovering stakes if the main bet loses.
[race result - Sire De
Grugy 1st & Somersby 2nd ]
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