What Did Guy Say About The Grand National ?
Grand National Day
All our reputations are on the line today with the
pressure of once a year punters we all know who
will be expecting us to pull up the winner for them.
When I tell you that I feel the Grand National is
going to be won by a 50/1 outsider who has never
won any Chase in his life before and never won a
race beyond 3m before you may think I've had a
mental meltdown and that I should be sectioned.
Possibly so but I'm pleased with my 50/1 having
ran a few fresh angles last night and adapted my
approach because it is a softer ground National.
I have a Split Stake bet 50/1 20/1 with 2 savers.
No Official Bet
Grand National Final Selection
£4 Win Bet RULE THE WORLD 50/1
£2 Each Way GOONELLA 20/1
£1 Win GALLANT OSCAR 20/1
£1 Win MANY CLOUDS 10/1
1-2-3-4-5-6 Places with V. Chandler
1-2-3-4-5 Places available with these firms
Bet365 Skybet Boyles PPower Corals Betfair
Best firms to bet Rule The World
Bet365 Skybet PPower
£4 Win Bet Rule The World 50/1
£2 Each Way Goonyella 20/1
£1 Win Gallant Oscar 20/1
£1 Win Many Clouds 10/1
Explained in Detail elsewhere in message
Obviously have to be realistic
But I am happy with this portfolio
My personal stakes will differ slightly
I will save on Many Clouds Place only
That's the only difference from the above stakes
A i n t r e e 5.15
7/1 Many Clouds, 10/1 The Last Samuri, 12/1 Silviniaco
Conti, 14/1 Holywell,14/1 Saint Are, 14/1 The Druids
Nephew, 16/1 Gallant Oscar, 16/1 Shutthefrontdoor, 20/1
Goonyella, 20/1 Kruzhlinin, 20/1 Sir Des Champs, 20/1
Ucello Conti, 25/1 Morning Assembly, 25/1 Unioniste,
33/1 Boston Bob, 33/1 First Lieutenant, 33/1 Triolo
D´alene, 40/1 Le Reve, 40/1 On His Own 40/1 Onenightinvienna,40/1
The Romford Pele, Wonderful Charm, 50/1 Buywise 50/1
Gilgamboa, 50/1 Hadrian´s Approach, 50/1 Just
A Par, 50/1 Rocky Creek, 50/1 Rule The World, 50/1 Soll,
66/1 Aachen, 66/1 Ballycasey, 66/1 Ballynagour
66/1 Black Thunder, 66/1 Double Ross, 66/1 Home Farm,
66/1 Pendra, 66/1 Vics Canvas, 66/1 Vieux Lion Rouge.
The Grand National is fascinating as ever
This year Willie Mullins has 4 runners and Paul Nicholls
They have a quarter of the field trying to win the trainers
They seem to be throwing a lot on unsuitable doubtful
stayers at the race
I am boxed into certain corners in a race like this
Certain statistics and Breeding statistics give me no
The 7 year olds for example have to be eliminated
So to surely does the 13yo VICS CANVAS
So do the horses with very light seasons on fitness
The last 27 winners had the following runs that season
4 7 4 3 4 6 4 5 6 6 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 6 7 3 5 4 6 7
It would statistically unacceptable to consider horses
with 1-2 runs
WONDERFUL CHARM and TRIOLO D´ALENE have this problem
So to does SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR who didn't stay last year
HADRIAN´S APPROACH and PENDRA are too lightly
raced this year
HOME FARM - KATENKO and KRUZHLININ are as well
ROCKY CREEK is a doubtful stayer by Dr Massini
I am boxed in by breeding stats as well
I don't mind that as these are tried and tested
There are strong grounds to oppose several on stamina
I always oppose the horses by Accordion in long distance
THE ROMFORD PELE and SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR are by this sire
Horses by Robin Des Champs don't have high class staying
SIR DES CHAMPS represents him and looks a doubtful stayer
King's Theatre has bred 131 Listed /Graded winners
Those that ran over 3m 3f or more are 0-43
THE DRUIDS NEPHEW has this to overcome
He led 6 fences out last year when falling
But there was a long way to go and he is not proven
over this far
Besides that he is far lighter raced this season than
Just 1 run in 120 days will be no help when the Petrol
light comes on
Horses by Shantou have not done that well
None have won beyond 3m 2f yet in Class 4 or higher
BALLYNAGOUR has this problem
What I do like about BALLYNAGOUR
Is the number of runs he has had this year
Overall the negatives outweighed the positives
But 70/1 on Betfair is a very cheap additional saver
MORNING ASSEMBLY is sired by Shantou
Thats a breeding concern and doesn't score well on my
He'd be the least experienced chaser in decades if winning
The last 2 winners had just 10 and 11 Chase runs
Maybe it is not unrealistic to expect a winner like
him with 8 Chases
He is after all well handicapped
If the race is slowly changing and lighter raced horses
And that does happen and could well be the case
Then MORNING ASSEMBLY would be one to consider
He is the ideal flag bearer for the new progressive
lighter raced type
But I have to overlook a lot if I select him
I have JUST A PAR as a doubtful stayer
Flat bred but he has won a 3m 5f Whitbred Gold Cup
He scores well on my scoring system as well
He has raced just once in 126 days though
20 of the last 21 winners had at least 2 runs since
Jan 1st that year
The last 25 winners all ran within 56 days
UCELLO CONTI fails that and has the longest absence
BUYWISE is absent longer than acceptable
He just doesn't look the type that wins races like this
He could find the big field against him
BLACK THUNDER looks short of runs and absent too long
GILGAMBOA looks a doubtful stayer
SAINT ARE was second last year
That sort of trumps my breeding stats who dislike him
But last year he had an extra race that season
This year he has just 3 runs
That is very low for an exposed horse with 25 Chase
On that has raced just once in 126 days
These are the reasons his numbers are not significant
I just feel there are better bets out there
I can't make a case for BALLYCASEY
I feel the same about 12yo ON HIS OWN
FIRST LIEUTENANT interested me in last years race
I just wasn't sure if he had retained all his ability
His Racing Post Ratings suggest he has done
But FIRST LIEUTENANT is 11 now
He has raced just once in 113 days
He had a 23 day absence in last years race
This year it is 63 longer than the last 25 winners
I can't justify him as a selection this year
I don't fancy LE REVE
BOSTON BOB is 11
He has raced just twice in 9 months now
I don't see enough I like about him
SOLL could go well
He comes out quite well on my points system
He shouldn't be as big as 80/1 on Betfair
His run in last years race was poor though
He broke a blood vessel and does run that risk again
Not considered for a selection
But I found few negatives and respect him
There are two class horses this year
SILVINIACO CONTI is one of those
If you look down the weights from the top down
You can see a case that Class might come to the front
But I've never though he fully stayed the Gold Cup trip
And he is not a big horse either
Hats off to him if he wins but I can't see it
And his price is too short given the task in hand
MANY CLOUDS is the other Class horse
Last years winner scores pretty well this year too
To be fair he is shortlistable
But he wouldn't be an imaginative choice
HOLYWELL is clearly very smart
His Points score is good enough to shortlist
I just have a Non statistical combination of problems
He is a short enough price
When you consider he is not a very big horse
THE LAST SAMURI is 8 with 8 Chase starts
Would be the least experienced winner in decades
He has won his last 2 races though
And he is very well handicapped off 149
I give him a better chance than I did a few weeks ago
He scores badly on my points system
And he makes limited appeal at the price
But I feel like I have been a bit unfair to him recently
UNIONISTE scores well on my points system
He fell at the 5th in last years race but he was a 7yo
I can make a case for him and he could win
It is really just the big field that worries me
He isn't the most substantial of horses
That's not something that I want to risk
No surprise if Many Clouds won again.
Many Clouds is 9/2 to Place on Betfair
That could be the best saver in my view
I had a bet on Morning Assembly 28/1 yesterday
My race stats, Breeding stats and Points system disagree
They would see that as a stupid waste of money
I don't think he will win but he got under my skin a
If the race is changing towards lighter raced horses
After all the last 2 winners had 10 and 11 Chase runs
The he may just break some unbreakable angles and win
He is Not on my official shortlist though
The Final Angle
The Most Important Angle
The Brand New Angle
The Ground is on the soft side
That is going to make a significant difference
So I decided to look at only past Nationals
That were run when the ground was softer than Good
That just seems Logical and I was persuaded by this
Every winner was aged 9-10-11
No Winners Came from Cheltenham (0-67)
All winners had 5 or 6 races that season
Most had 3 or more runs since Christmas Day
All had at least 2 runs since Christmas Day
If you think about it the race must be harder to win
on softer ground. I don't think it is coincidence that
these winners had 6 6 6 5 6 races that season rather
than those with 3-4 runs. It is that extra preparation
I also like and understand with several recent races
as well. Horses from Cheltenham's Festival are 0-67
in softer ground Nationals and that could be a factor.
Only 1 horse fits this profile like a Glove
RULE THE WORLD 50/1
I tell you what else I like about him
Sometimes after the National you get that feeling
Where you can see it clearly after the race but not
He fits that feeling of being all too obvious after
I made his sire a Negative sire
That was unfair. It probably should have been neutral
The Sire did not have a Chase runner since 2013
So none have had a proper chance to achieve things
Besides that Rule The World has shown great stamina
He was 2nd in an Irish National on soft ground
I love his extra runs this year
He has a 2 race advantage over most of these
He scored badly on my Points system for these reasons
He has never won a Chase before
He has never won over 3m or more
He also comes up in distance
It seems Madness that I am going with a horse that
never won a Chase before and has never won one at 3m.
Other statistical punters would cold shoulder me for
But he has only had these 13 Chase placings
2 2 5 2 2 2 6 SU 3 2 2 5 4
He was pitched in at the Deep end very quickly
On his Chase debut he gave weight away to a Grade 1
Beaten only in a photo that day as well
2nd in an Irish National after just 5 runs
He has already shown he is a high class Grade 1 horse
It is a crazy selection statistically
But he is also a crazy price as well
And I am sold on him.
Final Selection [ to a £10 total nominal stake
£4 Win Bet RULE THE WORLD 50/1 [1st]
£2 Each Way GOONELLA 20/1 [5th landing
£1 Win GALLANT OSCAR 20/1 [donkey]
£1 Win MANY CLOUDS 10/1 [donkey]
What Did Our Clients Say?
First of all I want to congratulate you on a spectacular
piece of analysis on the Grand National. It was quite
brilliant. I had a small to medium sized bet on Rule
the World at 50/1 and my only regret is that I was so
Anyway, you will see from your records that I used
to subscribe to your service but cancelled a few months
just did the daily membership for the National). What
originally attracted me to the service was exactly what
on Saturday - careful analysis of big races with measured
selections. however, after a few months of membership,
felt the service was drifting somewhat, and actual account
bets were becoming fewer and farther between. In the
I felt it wasn't worth continuing.
So, I am considering re-subscribing, and wanted to
ask you how the service was going these days? Also is
imagination, or is your forte more national hunt than
Hope to hear from you shortly.
I got 55.00
on Betfair this morning.
Fantastic call yesterday. Although you did not make
Rule the World an account bet, I liked the analysis
and went £25 EW (half stakes) on him at 50/1.
That is the first Grand National winner I have had since
2001 winner Red Marauder.
viewpoint at the bottom of the message and whilst I
agree that at some point if a service gets too big ie
has too many members the bookmakers spot the pattern
and react to prices, I feel it is another thing for
them to start factoring your particular methods into
Your method of analysis is to my mind an extension (deeper
thought and wider and different factors) of the way
that the RP do the big race trends. You choose specific
races and days you work and it looks to me to be very
labour intensive. By comparison speed ratings are relatively
straight forward and easier.
and racing industry in general are very traditional
in their approach, and dont seem to want to be able
to factor into prices anything other than mainstream
Besides which, how do they know which angles you will
adopt for different races - they couldnt have forseen
the National angle as you didnt see it/adopt it yourself
until quite late. Take also someone like Patrick Veitch,
who uses all sorts of angles eg sectional timing, many
of which are like yours labour intensive, and the bookies
dont try and compete because its too much like hard
work. All they do is try and work out who is behind
the money and reduce prices as soon as they think
they are vulnerable. Who knows what will happen in future
but there would have to be enormous upheaval in the
way the industry currently thinks for your methods to
be factored into prices.
views on the same subject aren't there?
Just a quick email to add my congratulations to the
result on the Grand
National. A fantastic result for us all it seems.
Many thanks for the effort and time you put into this
My weekend was even more successful when Danny Willett
won the golf yesterday (if only I had done a double
with the National) but lets not get too greedy!!!!!
No-body believes I got the winner of the GN and it all
down to you -
Many Thanks. Best wishes,
I understand you will have had far too many messages
to reply to me.
I guess I have been with you 3-4 years, except with
a short break for
six months when I was working abroad...
You once gave me some input on a couple of laid out
plot horses Toga Tiger etc...
I just wanted to drop you a line to say what a massive
effort in the National yesterday.
You certainly have some of the most powerful set of
angles and biggest "edge" I have ever seen.
Often, I think it is not so much the power of the angles
that is really important, more the extent to which they
are already "priced in" and factored by the
What I feel makes your angles so powerful at present
(and I definitely agree with you, perhaps because of
your remarkable depth of experience they are powerful
now that they even were three years ago when I first
joined you) is that you clearly have a set of angles
a) are highly predictive
b) are dramatically underweighted or even virtually
ignored by the betting market.
This is what I feel makes your angles so powerful.
Stats, and specifically stats history of the same race
over previous years, is clearly NOT on the current betting
market's radar as much as it should be.
When it is, your value to a punter will be significantly
reduced because your insights will already be baked
into the prices available, eliminating our edge.
At present, you have a powerful edge ignored by the
I feel the betting market is still virtually entirely
dominated by traditional form analysis.
Form analysis may be powerful, and indeed it might
even be more predictive than your stats analysis.
But if the market prices are based around form analysis,
they are useless to a punter.
Your angles are not only highly predictive, more so
than ever before, but crucially are not taken account
by the betting market at present.
The only comparison I can draw is with some speed rating
figures about 10-15 years ago.
For a period of time, these were incredibly powerful
tools, throwing up top rated 33/1 shots that were virtually
being ignored by the market. People relying on this
information source went through a very high ROI period
of 5 years or so.
Alas, gradually over time, as I find so often happens
with powerful edges, the market started to adapt and
today speed rating figures are pretty much "in
the price". Of course, they are as good an indicator
of a horse with a good chance as they ever were, but
the information they convey is already baked into the
market's price, so it is very, very hard to find an
edge with them.
Anyway, I digress; thank you again for your incredible
There are many people carrying out stats analysis,
but it took a stroke
of genius/courage, to make the sort of call you did
It is the sort of call that could only have been made
by somebody with inner self-belief, and years and years
of experience of watching horses running round tracks
and watching which statistical angles
worked and didn't - and in what circumstances. Almost
a sixth sense.
That is why even a punter who tried to learn from your
messages and analyse each race from the same angles
you look at would so often fail to reach the same conclusion
as you -
a depth of experience which cannot be bought or replicated.
No short cuts!
If I had the funds, I would look to buy out the service
so that you stopped educating people to your angles,
shortening the window of opportunity we have available
to enjoy a high ROI before the market adjusts over time.
You might feel you have been banging the same drum
for many years without influencing the market unduly,but
in my view, you have reached a new level over the last
12 months which means it is virtually
impossible you can continue to operate as you have done
previously somewhat below the radar;
I find it hard to believe you can sustain this level
of ROI without the market adapting and reacting.
Edges this powerful do not last ignored by the market
for long periods, I believe.
As you say in today's notes most folk have a bet on
Grand National even though we all know it is not a race
to have a bet on.
I had a couple of small ante post interests on Gallant
Oscar and Goonyella. I'm not a BIG bettor.
However having read your thoughts on Rule The World
and thought it made sense.
Having backed Pineau de Re a couple of years ago it
seemed similar having done well in
Ulster or Irish versions. So I had similar investment
not very large in my case.
I usually "take
a rest" during flat season. I may get Sat news
on a couple of occasions but will certainly return come
keep up good work and don't burn yourself out (Quality
not Quantity should be your motto)
Credit where credit is due, what a fantastic message.
was a cracker yesterday, you found something no-one
Not that I put much on, but the return was great at
Brilliant assessment of the GN yesterday I don't know
how you picked out the winner but well done.
All your members must be delighted.
Thanks for a great tip. M
I loved your
At best, one can only ever please some of the people
some of the time and managing expectations
is crucial to one's perception of 'satisfaction'. I
learnt this lesson a long time ago but once
I made it a cornerstone of my modus operandi, I found
it had unexpected effects.
By way of illustration, if I were to advise a client
that it was likely his claim would settle for £1m
and it did, it is likely he would be moderately satisfied.
If I had instead told him that the likely range of settlement
was £0.5m-£1.5m, and it settled for £1m,
it is equally possible he would be less content, despite
the same outcome. If I chose the third option of telling
him that I thought we would achieve £0.5m but
I would try to get more, it's likely he'd think
I was bodering on genius when he recovered £1m.
The same outcome, three different but equally legitimate
modes of delivery, yielding three different satisfaction
When Google made colossal profits a few years back,
their shares plummeted.
Why? Because the results - whilst objectively superb
- were ever so slightly lower than predicted.
It is wise never to set the bar too high for oneself,
or - more accurately - never to
communicate that fact to one's clients or customers,
For what it's worth, I don't agree with many of the
remarks attributed to your 5 year member.
Your performance figures speak for themselves. Yes,
the betting world (like any other) is constantly changing
but it's clear to me that you are evolving too.
Your Grand National message was powerful evidence in
favour of that proposition.
I liked the way you said that this felt like a bet that
in hindsight would appear obvious
and it's that type of creative thinking that I admire
about you and your service.
I was thinking about the race yesterday morning before
your message arrived and it
occurred to me that many if not all the 'old statistics'
are no longer valid, given the
not insignificant changes made to the fences and the
topography of the course over the past few years.
I was unable to come up with the winner of the race
myself, but it did cause me to think about it in a different
Many thanks for making yesterday's Grand National not
only one of the most exciting I've watched but also
one of the most profitable !! Managed to get the 50/1
and will be having a nice Sunday Lunch out on Rule the
Thanks Guy keep up the good work and don't be to harsh
on yourself we all make mistakes.
A belated "thank
you" for yesterday's inspired result !
I'm an old
git on a small pension whose normal bet is a fiver each
I enlisted for your trial a week or so back with reservations
because, frankly, the ongoing seventy quid a month is
a considerable outgoing for me.
However, I liked the sound of your methods and decided
to give it a go; and how pleased I am that i did.
The way you analyse the races is most impressive and
Hoping to remain
with you for years to come.
With very best
Congratulations Guy!! You worked damned hard through
all your Statistics to come up with a fantastic winner
and deserve all the credit you must be getting !
The only thing worries me is you will be getting too
popular and the prices will start to suffer !!
What I really
enjoy/appreciate about your service Guy is that when
you make an error of judgement you
are never afraid to 'fess up - a quality that's extremely
rare (probably unique) in this industry.
Congratulations on nailing the National winner - a tad
late for me to maximise but at least
I added it to my own list of selections!! Enjoy your
Sunday!! Regards, Graham
What a Pick.
I refer of course to Rule the world.
Well done indeed.
Keep up the good work.
Well done yesterday Guy, what a star ! and many thanks
Just a quick thank you for your inspired selection yesterday
and your great service generally.
A work of genius!
It’s a privilege to be a subscriber!
Many thanks for yesterday's National selection.
I went all in on Rule the World(I never back ew) and
use your "selections" as a guide rather than
Your race assessments are outstanding.
great pick Guy,many thanks.
Many many thanks.
You Rule The World!!
Well done today,
When you said "fits that feeling of being all
too obvious after the
race" that was enough for me. Didn't bother with
anything other than
Rule The World each way at 50s. I had the same pre-race
thought years ago with Royal Athlete and didn't have
the courage to back him at 66s.
Didn't make the same mistake this time! But this time
it was down to
Thanks & kind regards
The only tipster I've seen today willing to look outside
of the box and all the usual 'trends'.
Fantastic GN work. Thank you.
I've heard many variations of "What's the definition
of mixed emotions?" joke.
Today I had my very own experience.
My wife has been in hospital for almost a week now
(she had a lung drained - she's fighting cancer).
Until yesterday everything was going well. Then at 6:45am
this morning she called me saying that she wanted me
as hospital asap as she was feeling really sick. After
arriving and comforting her (she's in a side room on
her own) I was fortunate to get a decent signal at the
hospital so I was able to get my bets on. I even managed
to watch my beloved Leeds Utd lose (again) on my iPad
using Sky Go. Various medical staff had come and gone
all day, but at 5:14 Mr Cheerful Nursing
assistant arrives to take her blood pressure, temp,
have an extended chat, etc.
Then my wife started feeling really ill again and had
to call a nurse in to fit a drip.
Everyone was done and exiting the room just as Mr Mullins
was being interviewed postrace.
Missed the whole thing. So I won the most money I've
ever won on a National, without going through the live
ecstasy of actually watching it.
(By the ti me I left the hospital at 8pm, my wife was
feeling a lot better thankfully.)
But none of that is your fault. I just grateful for
your email and picks and that I was able to get on.
Now I just have to entertain my mother who is visiting!!
I should be able to afford a few more months subscription
Sorry for the ramble - I'm sure you've had plenty of
congratulatory emails today!
Thank you very much Guy.
Guy, thank you.
Have two accounts accounts for you
Been very strict only bet on acc bets
Often follow message when I go to the races
Myself and my sister went to aintree today
Got message on train from London to Liverpool
thought I've made a lot last couple of months so
£50 ew on rule the world
OH MY GOD
Guy best feeling ever
Chucked my drink it was amazing best feeling ever
(Not sure on profit )
Maths greatest day in my horse racing life
Thank you so much
Best feeling ever
I have been a member for a while (maybe 5 years) not
Amazing win Guy, had £5 ew on winner
Hi Guy,I just
had to say,
Thank You,for an unforgettable special day.
I hope you get the plaudits from the members what you
What can I say well done what a great pick with Rule
Thanks very much I believe you were probably the only
tipster to give this
Well done &
fantastic analysis, especially to be brave and chuck
a few 'rules' out the window once the rains came.
I'd already flagged the horse myself last night, in
order to have a small saver on, purely because of the
story concerning 'Tipper' Morris, so once I saw your
column, I made it into my main bet.
I'm as pleased for you as I am for Mouse Morris... and
we even saw a human side to Michael O'Leary today!
Peach of a ride from the the young jockey who just hunted
round like a pro.
Also cheered me up no end after having to watch Ipswich
at home this afternoon,
although I left before the end, as the Grand National
seemed way more appealing at 0-3 down!
Well done, once again; hopefully it will have set up
many of your clientele with funds for the flat season.
Very well done!!!
Inspired call - well done!!
Dear Guy ,
Fantastic Tipping Guy , my
wife was chuffed, even though we only
had a pound each on it ! that's 2 good
priced winners you have tipped on the
Saturday service , I only wish I could
afford your service Full time !! thanks
Thank you Guy . No idea how you do it , you must be
That's the way to keep your subscribers very happy indeed.
Guy ! WTF?!!
You are a legend !! X
Sent from my
And got this advice for only £3!!!! For less
than a pint of beer!!!!
Hats off to you Guy! You called it pretty much to perfection.
Very well done.
Fantastic work - many thanks for all your effort.
Congratulations on your brilliant selection!
Glad I backed it at £12.00 each way my biggest
What a result.
I put £25 on at 50-1, promising that if it won
the winnings would go to charity.
What's your favourite charity?
dude........that was f*****g brilliant.
Wow I had a fiver bet to half your advice brilliant
thank you frank
Brilliant Guy, many congrats
I'm sure you
have had it loads already, Guy Im speechless,
thank you x x x x x
Guy, what can I say? Legend.
Fantastic - thank you very much . Next holiday paid
All the best,
superb tipping once again!
Thanks Guy.. £200 winnings
You are the
man Guy !
Thank you soooo much mate
Outstanding mate, absolutely outstanding !!!