Grand National Betting Advice

Below you can read some Grand National thoughts
as sent to full members here on March 23rd.

Any selections noted are not official service tips.
This was more so just a little extra for full members here.

I hope you find it interesting.


Grand National Preliminary Dossier

Index

1) Aim of the Dossier
2) Ante Post Bets
3) Scoring Results
4) The System Rules
5) Preliminary Grand National Analysis
6) Grand National Statistics


Aims of The Dossier


Today's Dossier is not aiming to identify the final
selection for the Grand National. It's basically an
experiment to try to turn my statistics into ratings.

Each horse starts with a Rating of 50
I add points to their score if passing certain stats
I subtract points from their score if failing some

This is completely subjective. Only an experiment
but I am hoping this will show up the likely winner
and identify horses that can be backed Ante Post.

These bets could end up as the final selection or
may just play a supporting role on the day. It's too
early for a final decision. It's simply an experiment.
Appreciation goes to a co researcher Coffeedodger
one of the members who has helped a great deal
in putting this together. He is also infamous when
on the service message board and I'm certain he
will happily engage in any debate on the message
board about this System for those wanting that.

I have advised bets on 9 horses
Some of these are just savers
These are not on any of the accounts
They are staked within a £10 Stake
They are in order of preference at the moment
Don't worry about following the exact staking


Ante Post Bets


Staked to £10 total nominal stake.


£3 AL CO 33/1 (Betfair)

£2 FIRST LIEUTENANT 40/1 (Betfair) 50/1 (PPower)

£1.50 ACROSS THE BAY 66/1 (80/1 Betfair)

£1 GODSMEJUDGE 25/1 (Betfair)

Savers


£0.50 MONBEG DUDE 50/1 + (Betfair)

£0.50 SAINT ARE 33/1 (Betfair, Offices)

£0.50 NIGHT IN MILAN 40/1-50/1 (Offices)

£0.50 PORTRAIT KING 66/1 (Non Run-No Bet) B365 SJ BFSportsbk

£0.50 PINEAU DE RE 28/1 (Betfair) 25/1 Offices

 



Scoring Results

* Many of these will not be running
* There could be the odd horse running not covered
* The highest Scores have the best profiles

54.50 AL CO

53.50 GODSMEJUDGE

53.50 PORTRAIT KING

51.50 MONBEG DUDE

51.50 RAZ DE MAREE

51.00 PINEAU DE RE

51.00 ACROSS THE BAY

50.50 FIRST LIEUTENANT

50.00 MON PARRAIN

50.00 NIGHT IN MILAN

50.00 ROYALE KNIGHT

48.50 SAINT ARE

48.50 ROCKY CREEK
48.00 GOONYELLA
47.00 CARLITO BRIGANTE
47.00 SOLL
46.50 ALVARADO
46.50 GAS LINE BOY
46.50 MAKE A TRACK
46.50 ROY DE MEI
46.50 WYCK HILL
46.50 GALLANT OSCAR
46.50 UNIONISTE
46.50 ALDERWOOD
46.00 LIVING NEXT DOOR
45.50 TEAFORTHREE
45.00 DOUBLE ROSS
45.00 THE PACKAGE
44.50 RUBI LIGHT
44.00 BOSTON BOB
44.00 CAUSE OF CAUSES
44.00 DOLATULO
44.00 THE DRUIDS NEPHEW
44.00 REBEL REBELLION
43.50 LORD WINDERMERE
43.50 BROADWAY BUFFALO
43.00 CEDRE BLEU
43.00 PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE
43.00 RIVER CHOICE
42.50 BUDDY BOLERO
42.50 CHANCE DU ROY
42.50 OSCAR TIME
42.00 BOB FORD
42.00 OWEGA STAR
42.00 ROLLING ACES
41.50 SHOTGUN PADDY
41.00 KATENKO
41.00 SUPER DUTY
40.50 SAM WINNER
40.50 THE RAINBOW HUNTER
40.00 BALTHAZAR KING
40.00 BENVOLIO
40.00 COURT BY SURPRISE
40.00 HADRIAN'S APPROACH
38.50 MANY CLOUDS
37.50 SPRING HEELED
35.50 BALLYCASEY
35.50 MERRY KING
35.00 TRANQUIL SEA
34.00 HOME FARM
30.50 CORRIN WOOD
28.50 SHUTTHEFRONTDOR




The System Rules


Each horse starts with 50 Points

Horses aged 7 - Subtract 5 Points
Horses aged 8 - Subtract 3 Points
Horses aged 8 Foaled after 11th April - Subtract 2 more points
Horses aged 10 - Add Half a Point
Horses aged 11 - Add Half a Point
Horses aged 12 - Subtract 2 Points
Horses aged 13 + - Subtract 5 Points

Previous runs since August 1st 2014
Horses with 0-1 runs in this period - Subtract 5 points
Horses with 2 runs in this period - Subtract 3 Points
Horses with 3 runs - Subtract 0.5 points

Horses with 2 runs and 21 + Chase starts - Subtract another 2pts
Horses with 3 runs and 21 + Chase starts - Subtract another 1pts

Runs Since January 1st 2015
Horses with under 2 runs since Jan 1st - Subtract 2 points
If having 21 + Chase starts - Subtract another 1 point

Horses absent 56-65 Days- Subtract 1 point
Horses absent 66-85 Days - Subtract 2 points
Horses absent 86-96 Days - Subtract 3 points
Horses absent 97-119 Days - Subtract 3.5 points
Horses absent 120 + days - Subtract 4 points

Horses winning Listed/Graded races - Add 1 point
Horses without any Graded form - Subtract 3 points

Horses with 11st 9lbs or more - Subtract 1 point

Horses with Under 9 Chase starts - Subtract 3 points
Horses with under 3 Chase wins - Subtract 1.5 points
Horses with 3 or more Chase Falls - Subtract 2 points

Horses who did not win over 3m or more - Subtract 3 points
Horses that have won over 3m 3f or more - Add 1 point

Horses coming from 2m 4f or shorter - Subtract 1.5 points
If that 2m 4f race is a Chase - Subtract 0.5 extra point

Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter - Subtract 1 point
If that horse has 21 or more career runs - Subtract 0.5 more points

Horses with Under 4 Handicap Chase runs - Subtract 2 points
Horses running in 5-12 Handicap - Add a Point
Never won a Handicap Chases - Subtract 1.5 points
Won 7 or more Handicap Chases - Subtract 1 point

2 or more wins since August 1st 2014 - Subtract 1.5 points

Horses coming from Cheltenham Handicaps
Winning last time in that race - Subtract 1.5 points
Horses from the Gold Cup - Subtract 1 point
Horses coming from any Cheltenham race
Beaten over 15 lengths in that race - Subtract 1pt
Coming from Cheltenham aged 9 or less - Subtract 1pt

Horses that raced over hurdles since Aug 1st - Add 1 point
Horses starting 25/1 + last time if it was a Chase - Subtract 1.5pts



Preliminary Grand National Analysis


AL CO 33/1

* Comes out top of my scoring system
* He has won a Scottish National
* He will be acceptable on my breeding stats
* Not the most fashionable of stables
* Would be a horrible name for a National winner
* Has to be backed at 33/1 or better

GODSMEJUDGE 25/1 (Betfair)

* Joint second highest points total
* Profile was shaping beautifully before Saturday
* Looked a potential selection with good breeding stats
* He was hammered over hurdles on Saturday
* Much harder to be confident about his chance now
* Saturdays bad run does not take points off him
* That's because bad recent runs have been overcome
* Horses beaten 57 33 47 lengths recently have won it
* That should give us a lot more hope about him
* For that reason we should have a small bet on him

PORTRAIT KING 100/1 (Betfair)

* Joint second highest points total
* Over 100/1 on Betfair a big chance he won't run
* He's won an Eider so encouraging for stamina
* I don't see him as very well handicapped
* He has scored very well so he must be respected
* He is 55 in the weights and could well get a run
* I'd rather take him at 66/1 non runner no bet
* Bet365 Stan James Betfair Sportsbook offer this

MONBEG DUDE 50/1 + (Betfair)

* He is joint 4th highest scorer
* 33/1 with the offices yet 60/1 on Betfair
* There is a doubt about his participation
* He was 7th last year but flopped at Cheltenham
* He is undergoing tests before being confirmed a runner
* Trainer's hoping an aversion to a tongue strap is to blame
* I think they will be desperate to run him
* He passes the angles I see as most important
* I don't think this track is ideal for him
* That said the 4m trip could make up for that
* I would risk him not running and take some 50/1

RAZ DE MAREE 200/1 + (Betfair)

* He is 66/1 with the offices and 200/1 on Betfair
* Suggests to me he won't be running
* He was a well beaten 8th in last years race
* Small undersized horses which I try and avoid
* Hold fire on him until he is a confirmed runner

ACROSS THE BAY 66/1 (80/1 Betfair)

* My joint 6th best scorer
* Positives and Negatives but a big price
* He was only 14th in the 2013 Grand National at 40/1
* He led over the third last before fading
* That was after being taken wide by a loose horse
* He was then 14th in the 2014 Grand National
* Watch the rerun of that race
* He was cantering 3 lengths in front at the 16th
* Another loose horse forced him wide and killed his chance
* He must have lost 30 lengths going from 1st to last
* You can completely ignore his run last year
* Scores well this year with decent preparation
* ACROSS THE BAY was brought down at Cheltenham last time
* Going well 4 out he was tripped up by a Faller
* Not a horse that has had much luck
* It's a worry all 8 wins have come on soft and heavy
* He's run well on faster ground more than once
* The jury's is out in terms of stamina
* Should give a great run for your money
* With reasonable luck he will be there 3-4 out
* Has to be backed at 66/1 and more

PINEAU DE RE 28/1 (Betfair)

* Won the race last year
* Not as convincing this year
* He still comes out as joint 6th best on my scores
* I don't like the fact his 3 runs this year were hurdle races
* He hasn't ran in a Chase since last years race
* I would feel annoyed if he was to win unbacked
* Could be worth 1/2 a point as a saver

FIRST LIEUTENANT 40/1-50/1

* Comes out 8th best
* I personally like his chance a great deal
* Big danger though he doesn't have the legs
* That's debatable and I feel this track suits ideally
* He's the forgotten horse and has high class backclass
* I think he is a Must bet at 40/1 and More

MON PARRAIN 50/1-66/1 Offices 100/1 Betfair

* Running plans are unclear
* His trainer has 7 entries so will he miss out ?
* The 100/1 on Betfair suggests he may not run
* There is a Stamina question mark as well
* 50/1 Non runner No Bet is fine with Bet365 or Stan J
* Maybe best to wait to see running plans
* If he does run I would have a nibble at 33/1 +


NIGHT IN MILAN 50/1

* Joint 9th best on the numbers
* Not convinced he has the class
* 50/1 does seen a reasonable price though
* Small cover bet at this stage


ROYALE KNIGHT 33/1

* Not too bad a profile
* I am not going to bet him at this stage
* He has raced once since November
* One of my best angles suggests you want 2 + runs
* I will also have to fail him on my breeding stats
* No Bet


SAINT ARE

* Small cover bet at this stage

GOONYELLA - Not sure he will run. No bet now
CARLITO BRIGANTE - Hard to see him staying
SOLL - Not for me at the moment


 

Grand National Statistics


* The Grand National

* Older horses dominated recently.
* 2010 - The 1st 2nd 3rd 5th 6th 7th 8th were aged 10 or more
* 2011 - The 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th were aged 10 or more
* 2012 - The 1st 4th 5th 6th 7th were aged 10 or more
* 2013 - The 1st 2nd 4th 5th 6th were aged 10 or more
* 2014 – The 1st 2nd 6th were aged 10 or more

* The last 26 winners had the following runs that season
* 7 4 3 4 6 4 5 6 6 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 6 7 3 5 4 6 7 6

* Horses with 1-2-3 runs that season underperform

* Only Miinnehoma 1994 won with 2 runs that year
* He had 9 Chase starts and 17 career runs
* I can live with 3 runs if the horse is unexposed
* If under 25 National Hunt runs and 9-20 chase runs

* Runs Since January 1st that year
* Past winners had the following runs
* 2 3 2 3 2 3 1 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 4 3 2 3 3 4
* 19 of the last 20 winners had at least 2 runs since Jan 1
* Horses with under 2 runs in this period perform badly

* Class is important in a National Winner
* 12 of the last 14 winners won in Listed Grade or higher
* Ballabriggs (2011) did not do that
* He had won in Class 2 race but hadn't been tested in higher
* I'd argue he should be seen as a Graded winner
* He won the 2010 Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival
* It was a Class 2 handicap but he did that with Topweight
* That was more than worthy or a Graded win
* Pineau De Re (2014) did not do that either
* He was 2nd in a Grade race though

* I wouldn't automatically rule out highweights
* The 2012 winner won with 11st 6lbs
* The 2010 winner won with 11st 5lbs
* Many have won before and the fences are easier now

* 9 of the last 14 winners had just 10-15 previous Chase start
* We have to bear in mind the race is changing
* The 2012 4th (Cappa Blue) had just 6 chase runs
* Mely Moss was 2nd in 2000 with 5 Chase starts
* Lord Atterbury was 3rd in 2004 with 4 Chase starts
* The race has been maid easier too

* Horses with 21 or more chase starts underperform
* They won 3 of the last 18 renewals
* None had just 1 run since Jan 1st
* Just 1 winner with 21 + chase runs had 2 runs since Jan 1st
* Two winners with 21 + chase runs had 3 runs since Jan 1st

* 20 of the last 21 winners had 3-4-5-6-7 Chase wins before
* They had 3 5 11 4 4 3 5 4 3 3 5 7 3 5 6 5 7 3 5 6 4 5 Chase wins

* You want a decent Jumper
* 14 of the last 15 winners had not fallen more than twice before
* This was the only statistic the 66/1 winner in 2013 failed
* I wouldn't rule a horse out on this statistic

* Every winner since 1970 had won over at least 3m

* The record of horses from 2m 4f or shorter is poor
* This is worse when its a Chase over 2m 4f or shorter

* I Looked at horses from handicap chases over 2m 6f or less
* No horse won doing that with 21 or more runs

* Recent winners had ran in the following Handicap Chases
* 9 16 9 7 5 21 8 8 6 6 24 33 7 12 14 12 15 7 16 7 4 7
* Every recent winner has ran in at least 4 Handicap Chases
* Horses running in 5-12 Handicap Chases did well

* They won 15 of the last 22 renewals
* Number of Handicap Chases won
* Recent winners had won the following Handicap Chases
* 2 3 3 3 1 2 1 3 3 2 3 6 0 4 4 5 4 3 3 1 1 2
* No past winner had won more than 6 Handicap Chases

* Not having headgear is preferable to having it

* Most winners had under 2 wins that season

* Past Winners had the following number of wins that year
* 1 0 0 2 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 3 1 1 1 0
* The horse with 2 runs was Ballabriggs in 2011

* 1997 winner Lord Gyliene also won more than once that year
* The overall record though does favour under 2 wins

* There were 6 winners coming from Cheltenham
* Miinnehoma 1994 came from the Gold Cup
* Rough Quest 1996 came from the Gold Cup
* Bindaree 2002 came from the Trophy Handicap (6th)
* Silver Birch 2007 came from the Cross Country race
* Don't Push it 2010 came from the Pertemps H'Cap Hurdle
* Pineau De Re 2014 came from the Pertemps H'Cap Hurdle
* Ideally I'd like good chase form in a big field
* Ideally I'd avoid horses that were Novices last year

Best Wishes

Guy Ward

 

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