Mathematician 2496
Sunday December 11th
1 Account Bet
0 Negative
8 Previews
This is an interesting days racing
It is rich in Novice and Maiden hurdles
The message has plenty to consider
I have a piece about the Champion Hurdle
Some news about our Christmas schedule
The Racing Content today feels pretty good
My biggest headache is choosing the best bet
There were a lot of options today
Today's Bet
Punchestown 12.55 - TURCAGUA 7/4 - 2/1
Cork 1.10 - DR MIKEY 5/2
Each Way Double
I have gone with an each way double
But I went through several other options
And I think the message is more significant
Than the chosen bet on this particular day
T o d a y s M e s s a g e
8 Previews
Previews 1 2 3 4 8 are highlighted
The Message feels stronger earlier
Then it tends to get diluted down a bit
Results may yet show something different
But I felt I had to highlight as many as 5 races
Carlisle 12.00
STARPLEX 7/1
Each Way
Not entirely sure about this bet
Starplex has a 4-7 profile
I don't think he has stayed on his last 2 runs
It is an unusual profile I don't see often
I like the price each way
A little worried I can't judge the opposition well
And very worried we get a non runner
But I will be interested in how he runs
And he does have by far the best profile
Cork 12.35
£4.00 Each Way TOUT EST PERMIS 9/1
£1.00 Win Bet ALCANDER 11/1
£1.00 Win Bet DINARIA DES OBEAUX 8/1
Fascinating race
The favourite is odds on with dodgy breeding stats
Alcander is there as a cheap saver
Dinaria Des Obeaux is unraced
I nearly made her the main bet
Because of concerns about the favourite
The friendly nature of the race
His sires statistics in juvenile hurdles
But her trainers comments must worry us
"I'd imagine she'll need this run first time"
"We'd be delighted if she ran into the money "
Usually wise to treat trainer comments sceptically
But that would worry me
I dug those comments out about 10am
They are not widely reported comments
They changed the nature of my staking
Good example of how bets and selections
Can change very late in real time as study goes on
Punchestown 12.55
TURCAGUA 5/2
Win Bet
Hard to know what ability he has
But I feel it is enough to win a similar race
I give him a small edge on his profile
Small edge on his numbers and ability
Carlisle 1.05
PADS 9/1
Each Way
1/4 The Odds 1, 2
Not keen on this Badly framed race
He is probably the 4th best horse of 6 runners
But he has a W W W W profile
So what Can I do but highlight him
I have my doubts about him
But at around 10/1 we don't need much on
Cork 3.50
£8 Win Bet LOGICAL SONG 9/4
£2 Saver Bet VARENE DE VAUZELLE 5/1
Two minds about him
Last time out he was beaten over much further
That was either down to stamina failings or not
If it was not down to stamina
Then we could be in trouble
But it it was a case of not staying last time out
That caused his defeat
Then I feel he should win very easily
As he looked very good the time before
On the balance of probabilities
I think he probably will outclass these
Daily Negatives
No Official Negative
Negative Profiles
Cork 12.35 - Tree Of Knowledge 4/5
Carlisle 12.00 - Bubsy Burbidge 2/1
Results of Negatives
30 correct bets from 42
Pre Christmas Break
I gave a commitment a few days ago
To pick up the pace and have more bets
A few days after that decision
We have had 3 negatives which is progress
And pleasing that we got all of these beaten
We have had 2 account bets too
I can hardly pretend the floodgates are open
But there has been a bit of progress there
It was a failure not to have a bet on Saturday
But we would have lost had we done that
It is never as simple as some think it is
In the Autumn the number of bets dried up
I think it was down to a lot of different reasons
One of which was not taking enough breaks
Getting burnt out and stale over a long summer
I have not yet learnt I need to have the odd break
Dropping one day a week leaves me feeling guilty
I am going to take some time off before Christmas
December 19th 20th 21st 22nd are not significant days
I am going to drop messages over these 4 days
Shut the service early for Christmas
Give me a chance of having a good rest
And come back for Boxing day
Then of course the Welsh National
We have slipped back in the second half of 2016
Not been happy with my performance this year
So the plan has to be to get back to where we were
And part of that will be taking the break I badly need
Cheltenham Festival
Champion Hurdle
YANWORTH 10/1
I recently backed this horse at 10/1
In terms of the strength of my bet
I would say £2 or £3 of a standard account bet
I just feel we should have something on him now
I opposed him at last years festival
Didn't think he could stay 2m 5f
This was the best Novice Hurdler of last year
Top Class horse but he does not stay 2m 5f
Alan King said this week
He would be running in the Champion Hurdle
That is his right race in my opinion
If you look at the Champion Hurdle market
YORKHILL 16/1 probably won't even run
Aside from the two market leaders
The other runners are all massive prices
Look at the 2 market leaders
FAUGHEEN will be a 9 year old
ANNIE POWER will be a 9 year old
Since Sea Pigeon won this race in 1981
There have only been 3 winners aged 9 or more
Hurricane Fly (2013) had 3 runs that season
Rooster Booster (2003) had 4 runs that season
Royal Gait (1992) had 3 runs that season
FAUGHEEN has not raced this season yet
ANNIE POWER has not raced this season yet
Even if they both run at Christmas
They can only have 1 more run at the most
So both will be underraced as 9 year olds
No surprise at all if at least one doesn't get there
FAUGHEEN has had a serious injury
Willie Mullins is capable of switching them anywhere
Both are top class horses
But neither have been seen in months
And the race is only just over 12 weeks away
YANWORTH 10/1 should be backed now
Saturday's Summary
Poor Saturday message yesterday
It certainly did not go as planned
There were some excused with the ground
Cheltenham for example became very random
Only the National Hunt side of things can be excused
My strongest 2 bets came on the Flat
There were 3 highlighted bets
We returned just one place from these
That was the race where we opposed Briar Hill
That was one of the few things that went right
And the 3rd negative in a row this week we got right
The message clearly isolated 2 stronger selections
STATUESQUE looked like she had won
Well in control and clear she was 1/5 in running
Then she seemed to collapse very quickly
Did she go for home too early or set too fast a pace
Or is she just a hound that did not want to know
Either way she went from winner elect to last place
My best bet was in the 4.15 at Newcastle
I went with TRIBESMAN with a saver
I think in the end the draw counted against him
He looked isolated as the race developed in the middle
LADY BACHHUS ran very well in second
Just not quite as well as I had expected or needed
So we came away with nothing from these 2 races
Which made up into a disappointing Saturday
P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s
C a r l i s l e 12.00
13/8 Bubsy Burbidge, 13/8 Compadre, 5/1 Testify
10/1 Pikarnia, 10/1 Starplex, 25/1 Fit For Fifty
100/1 Eager To Know, 100/1 It´s A Long Story.
This is a 2m 1f Novice Hurdle
If I look at these races in December
Run between 2m and 2m 2f
There are 191 of these races since 2008
Horses aged 5
1 Career race
Coming from a Hurdle race
I find a 0-38 record since 2008
BUBSY BURBIDGE fails this 0-38 record
There were winners before 2008
But in recent years his type have struggled
I would rather look elsewhere
TESTIFY is unraced and whilst a few do win
I would rather look elsewhere
PIKARNIA's numbers are very low
COMPADRE has an obvious chance
Ran in the Champion Bumper last season
Has raced once this season
The issue was whether he did enough last time
COMPADRE was beaten 21 lengths after all
If I look at 5 year olds
Who have had 1 run this season
In a 2 mile Novice Hurdle like him
Beaten over 15 lengths last time out
I find a modest 3-63 record
COMPADRE has this 3-63 profile
I suppose I have to see him as a positive
But not a strong profile
And always cautions dealing with Jonjo O'Neill
STARPLEX is interesting
He could win this if I am right
His Hurdle Racing Post Ratings are 106 and 86
That rating of 106
Is the best hurdle Racing Post Rating in the race
I think given his pedigree
There is every chance he did not stay last time
That was an extended 2m 4f on softer ground
If that is true this could be a soft winnable race
Is STARPLEX a safe bet ?
Absoultely Not
But if I looked at 6 year olds
Running within 45 days
Beaten 20 + lengths last time
Running over 2m 4f and more
Starting under 16/1
I find a very encouraging 4-7 record
STARPLEX does have this 4-7 profile
The 4 winners had 2 2 3 4 career runs
STARPLEX has 1 more on 5
But this is still an encouraging profile
And last years winner of this race (Suit Yourself)
Was one of the horses in that 4-7 record
Selection
STARPLEX 7/1
Each Way
C o r k 12.35
4/5 Tree Of Knowledge, 4/1 Niven, 9/2 Alcander
8/1 Dinaria Des Obeaux, 10/1 Ineffable,
12/1 Tout Est Permis 14/1 English Pale, 16/1 Landsman,
25/1 Papal Motel 33/1 Lachares, 40/1 Long Call,
50/1 Eight And Bob 50/1 No Approval, Sleeplessinseattle,
50/1 The Invisible Dog 66/1 Buzz Boy, 66/1 Northern Emperor,
66/1 Observation, 66/1 Tropic Thunder, 100/1 Athlone Range
100/1 Bracklin Princess, 100/1 Camile.
3yo Hurdle race
This is quite an interesting race
3yo Hurdle on heavy ground
Stamina will be a big factor
That worries me about NIVEN
The sire has never bred a flat winner over 10f
Or a National Hunt winner anywhere
TREE OF KNOWLEDGE is the interesting one
Rated 96 on the flat
Odds on
Joseph O'Brien trains
My problem with him is his sire
TREE OF KNOWLEDGEis sired by Oasis Dream
Hurdlers sired by Oasis Dream
Have won 21 races to date
Those who raced on Good to soft or worse
Have a generally poor 3-96 record
All 3 winners had at least 5 hurdle runs
Those who had under 5 previous hurdle races
Have a 0-58 record
TREE OF KNOWLEDGE fails this 0-58 statistic
Hard to know how significant this is
As whilst my breeding stats do not trust him
Not many hurdlers by Oasis Dream
Have reached a level of Group Class as he does
Mind you his rating on the Flat of 96 may flatter him
It took him 3 runs to win his maiden after all
So a huge player and respected
But at the price and with those breeding statistics
I am taking TREE OF KNOWLEDGE on
There are few sensible alternatives
And we can only guess that alternative
Shortlist
ALCANDER
DINARIA DES OBEAUX
TOUT EST PERMIS
ALCANDER has 3 hurdle runs
Improving Racing Post Ratings of 60 96 111
That 111 rating could easily be enough
DINARIA DES OBEAUX is unraced
His claim is simply based on breeding
I checked the sires in the race
Those who had 3yo hurdle winners on soft/heavy
DINARIA DES OBEAUX's sire had a W W record
Throw in a high class stable
He she has to be a player
But I am worried she may need the run
TOUT EST PERMIS should be a big threat
Ran into 2 decent horses last time
One came out and won a Graded race
The other had far more experience
TOUT EST PERMIS shaped nicely
Selection
£4.00 Each Way TOUT EST PERMIS 9/1
£1.00 Win Bet ALCANDER 11/1
£1.00 Win Bet DINARIA DES OBEAUX 8/1
P u n c h e s t o w n 12.55
2/1 Turcagua, 3/1 Champagne Classic, 4/1 Toe The Line,
9/2 New To This Town, 9/1 The Rory Story, 12/1 Jimmy Breekie
20/1 Crehelp, 20/1 Glenabo Bridge, 20/1 Kilfenora
20/1 Palmabad, 20/1 Play The Part, 20/1 Playbook
20/1 There You Go, 25/1 Cagliostro, 25/1 Close Shave
33/1 Doldrum Bay, 50/1 Burrows Spring, 66/1 Like A Flash
100/1 Ballyadam Oscar, 100/1 King´s War.
CHAMPAGNE CLASSIC won a recent bumper
No real problem with his profile
But 7 horses ran aged 5 having won recent bumpers
And they finished 3 2 7 2 3 4 6 so none actually won
TOE THE LINE has an unsafe profile
He is 7 and comes from a 2mn hurdle race
With a recent run similar types have not done well
NEW TO THIS TOWN has a chance
He was only 6/1 to win the festival bumper last year
Reasonable comeback run
He could be one of the saver options
But TURCAGUA stands out a little bit more
Good profile with 2 very similar winners
Decent last run and powerful connections
Back in trip he may have too much for these
Selection
TURCAGUA 2/1
Win Bet
C a r l i s l e 1.05
7/4 Above Board, 9/4 Coeur Blimey
5/2 Front At The Last, 8/1 Pads
33/1 Zolfo, 50/1 Along Came Theo.
Novice Hurdle around 2m 3f
Quite an unpleasant dilemma in this race
We have 4 horses that can win
Only 6 runners so not a pleasant frame
PADS has the best profile
But he has the worst numbers
And on his ability he looks the 4th best horse
However
If I look at similar 6 year olds
Who had 5-6 lifetime starts
Who have 3-4 previous hurdle races
Did not worse that 5th last time out
I find a very smart 4-4 profile
PADS has this W W W W profile
So I feel I have to have something on him
Even if the evidence suggests there are better horses
It is that extra experience that boosts his profile
ABOVE BOARD has ran twice
I can find winners with his profile
But not for a few years though
The last 33 that tried were beaten
But I can not rule him out him based on that
FRONT AT THE LAST ha sa complicated profile
H is a 6yo and has raced only once
Similar horses have won these races over shorter trips
They have won over longer trips as well
But around this sort of distance none have
I see that as more inconvenience
COEUR BLIMEY was beaten 27 lenghts last time
That was in a Graded race but it was 9 days ago
No horse tried to win with a similar profile
Just not enough evidence to assess him
So I am stuck with PADS here
He looks to have limitations
But he has a W W W W profile
He is a big price in a small field
So I feel I have to make him the selection
Selection
PADS 9/1
Each Way
C o r k 1.10
11/4 Kolumbus, 100/30 Dr Mikey, 4/1 Woods Well
9/2 Black Ace, 12/1 So Sorry Sarah
20/1 Autumn Showers, 33/1 California Soul, 33/1 Souphanouvan
40/1 Knockraha King, 50/1 Gold Struck, 50/1 Nicole´s Milan
50/1 Whats In It For Me, 66/1 Mustago
100/1 Oh´herewego, 100/1 Whitmore Power.
2m Maiden hurdle
Big field but just 4 serious runners
What I don't like about this race
Is a lack of credible fancied negatives
None of the possible winners have bad profiles
DR MIKEY each way seems reasonable
There should be just 3 main dangers to him
2 of these have long absences
The other has no hurdling form
DR MIKEY comes here winning his hurdling debut
Racing Post Rating of 126 is respectable
If you want hurdling form and a recent run
H is the only sensible option in the race
Confidence is limited without any negatives though
Selection
DR MIKEY 5/2
Each Way
C a r l i s l e 1.35
2/1 West Of The Edge, 5/2 Ballyben, 8/1 Cyclop
8/1 Saroque, 12/1 Basford Ben, 12/1 Danimix
16/1 Fill The Power, 16/1 Scotswell, 20/1 Sharney Sike
25/1 Carli King.
3m 2f Handicap Chase
I don't really want to commit to this race
If I was to have a bet
I would try and oppose the favourite
WEST OF THE EDGE recently upgraded stables
H won on his first start for that new stable last time
Normally I like things like that
But he is not the biggest of horses
He is not an expensive horse
He is syndicated by a Racing Club
And he is now in a 0-124 after winning just a 0-104
My shortlist would be these
Shortlist
SAROQUE
CYCLOP
BALLYBEN
No Selection
C o r k 1.40
5/4 Screaming Rose, 6/4 Monbeg Notorious
9/2 Rathnure Rebel, 14/1 Catcheragain
50/1 Lilywhite Gesture.
Graded Novice Hurdle over 3m
Quality staying types
I don't see any compelling angles
One thing I will say about the sires in this race
If I look at how many have bred winners in hurdles
Over 3m or more on bad ground in quality races
The only sire who has not had any winner yet
Is the sire of SCREAMING ROSE
My Breeding stats question her
They don't condemn her just feel she is unproven
Her Best Racing Post Hurdle rating is 136
She has run a 136 after 5 hurdle runs
MONBEG NOTORIOUS has run a 137 after 1 hurdle run
She has beaten that after just 1 run
That and the breeding issue steer me her way
RATHNURE REBEL could also be a big runner
Decent numbers and has more hurdling experience
You can only guess but I am split staking this
£5 Win Bet RATHNURE REBEL 6/1
£5 Win Bet MONBEG NOTORIOUS 4/5
C o r k 3.50
5/2 Broughtons Star, 4/1 Logical Song
8/1 Varene De Vauzelle, 14/1 French Ambassador
14/1 Theatre Princess, 16/1 Knockraha Boss
16/1 Leaders Questions, 16/1 Youcantcallherthat
20/1 Dontdelay, 20/1 Just Go, 20/1 Scottish Academy
25/1 Krissy´s Kisses, 33/1 Alphabelle.
Novice Handicap Hurdle over 2m 4f
I don't like BROUGHTONS STAR
I feel he is vulnerable in two areas
As a 9 year old stepping up from a 2m race
Horses aged 7 or more doing that are just 1-45
I also question his stamina
His sire does not offer us much stamina
THEATRE PRINCESS also comes from 2m
As a 9yo Mare there are safer choices
KNOCKRAHA BOSS was beaten 51 lengths 9 days ago
I think that is too far too recently
I like LOGICAL SONG
Won well 2 runs ago
Didn't stay 3m last time out
Selection
£8 Win Bet LOGICAL SONG 9/4
£2 Saver Bet VARENE DE VAUZELLE 5/1
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Best Wishes
Guy Ward
www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk
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