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Mathematician 1702
Saturday October 12th
10 Previews
4 Mini Previews
No Full Account Bet
Two Options
One Mention

T o d a y' s O p t i o n s

Today's Two Bets (Options)
Newmarket 2.05
LOCKWOOD 4/1
Each Way

York 3.30
MASS RALLY 14/1 Each Way
BOGART 16/1 Win Bet

Today's Mention
Newmarket 5.25
CHAPTER SEVEN 16/1 Each Way
SHORT SQUEEZE Place Saver 5/4

A Manic Saturday again. It's Always difficult to
extract the best bets form the message and get
them at the top of the message. Today I have a
lot more likely winners unstaked but I decided
to go with some big prices bets discussed here.

Newmarket 2.05 - LOCKWOOD 4/1 Each Way
Excites me less than my other bets mainly as
he is a shorter price but his profiles fine and
he likes the ground and I think he should run
well. One or two foreign dangers so this isn't
a bet I would want to talk up unnecessarily.

York 3.30
MASS RALLY 14/1 Each Way
BOGART 16/1 Win Bet
On the one hand it is ridiculous to expect a
lot from such a big field York Handicap and
it could be seen as too big a risk. That said
I have done this race properly and haven't
cut any corners and reading my preview it
seems to me that I have made a good case
for these horses. I fancy these more than I
probably should. I've staked MASS RALLY
each way and BOGART to win so there is
a chance that staking backfires badly and
if it does then I will be moaning tomorrow.

Newmarket 5.25
CHAPTER SEVEN 16/1 Each Way
SHORT SQUEEZE Place Saver 5/4
I have had to make this a "Mention" rather
than a stronger Option because I wanted a
place saver and not everyone has access
to that bet. If you haven't then just have a
win saver on Short Squeeze. I really like
my angles in the race but it's so hard we
are going to need lots of luck to win this.

Lets hope for a good day but with two bets
from the three horses at 14/1 and more it
is asking a lot to get one of these winning.

T o d a y 's M e s s a g e

It is a long stamina sapping message today but
tomorrow's will probably be short as Goodwood
has some ridiculous field sizes and heavy rain's
due and may well cause some Sunday carnage.
I think today's message is strong and I'm hoping
in places it may touch a high standard. I would
need to temper that with a disclaimer. October
and foul weather at a bad time of year nothings
guaranteed. Last Saturdays message turned out
to be excellent but because of the nature of the
weekend races I wouldn't expect lots of winners
and I wouldn't be following it through to the end.
I've made Newmarket the spine of this message.
I have dipped into a couple of York races which
includes a very long 3.30pm preview. Hexham's
not a good card and I have not found anything
there. I've thrown in a Token Irish race without
much standing out there. Chepstow has several
previews as well. Hopefully I've not overdone it.

****************************************************
****************************************************
P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W

N e w m a r k e t 2.05
3/1 Darwin, 4/1 Lockwood, 6/1 Fiesolana
6/1 Highland Colori, 10/1 Amarillo, 10/1 Ansgar
10/1 Trumpet Major, 12/1 Libranno, 20/1 Arnold Lane
33/1 Gabriel´s Lad.

* The Challenge Stakes is a Group race over 7f
* Several big shocks in the past so be careful
* Look at the last 23 winners of this race
* All 23 had previously run in Listed or Group Class
* HIGHLAND COLORI and GABRIEL´S LAD have not
* They fail other angles later in the preview
* Horses with 5 and 14 runs are best
* Go back 23 years and 20 of the 23 winners had that
* I'd be wary about betting a horse with many more runs
* LIBRANNO with 34 runs is the most exposed horse
* He failed in last years race and could be vulnerable
* TRUMPET MAJOR has 18 runs and not for me
* Not with a 91 day break and a Group 2 penalty
* AMARILLO - bit exposed + Stall 1 an unsafe combination
* ANSGAR is overexposed and has no 7f form
* ARNOLD LANE - Exposed and comes from handicaps
* No recent winner won this from a handicap
* GABRIEL´S LAD has exactly the same problems
* HIGHLAND COLORI also has the same problem
* FIESOLANA is a filly which brings 3 small issues
* We haven't had a female aged 4 or 5 winning this
* We haven't had a filly down in trip winning either
* We haven't had a filly winning with so many runs
* DARWIN is a very sexy 3 year old
* He's the only 3yo and they score well
There are a couple of issues he does face
* There were 12 winners aged 3
* All 12 had at least 7 career starts
* DARWIN only has the 5 runs so far
* They all had at least 4 runs that season as well
* DARWIN only has 3 runs this year
* All his 9 opponents have raced more this year
* These are the worrying issues for me

Selection
* LOCKWOOD has more experience and runs this year
* He comes from the Park Stakes at Doncaster
* The 2004 and 2009 winners did the same
* LOCKWOOD looks the best all round profile
LOCKWOOD 4/1
Each Way


Fairyhouse 2.10
11/8 Thynetocatcher, 100/30 Ashbury
7/2 Never A Secret, 10/1 Kalico Kim
10/1 Naughty Molly, 14/1 Tullydonnell Flyer
16/1 Slivegullion Girl, 16/1 Supreme Vic
20/1 Hill Rock.
I can't know nearly enough about Irish Beginners
Chases for Mares. That said I would want far more
evidence that THYNETOCATCHER is fit and in form
than he showed recently. With a recent run I was
tempted to suggest ASHBURY each way but I know
that half the field are horses I don't know enough
about and the unknown factor could kill that choice.
There is money for SLIVEGULLION GIRL who may
be worth a saver. Thats how I'd play the race. The
saver looks cheap and ASHBURY each way the bet.

Chepstow 2.25
I don't see much point in opposing KELTUS in the
Juvenile Hurdle. Paul Nicholls will want winners
at this meeting and he is 4-6 in the race. I can't get
excited enough to bet him but I wouldn't oppose it.
Probably one of those that will win if he is odds on
but if weakness in the market out to 7/4 or more it
could be a worry. Not for me though as I wont bet.

N e w m a r k e t 2.35
9/4 Great White Eagle, 4/1 Sudirman
9/2 Hot Streak, 7/1 Astaire, 7/1 Supplicant
14/1 Brown Sugar, 14/1 Shamshon, 20/1 Green Door
20/1 Saayerr, 33/1 Jallota, 33/1 Justice Day
66/1 Bahamian Heights, 100/1 Speedfiend.
They say it is the best Middle Park Stakes for a
very long time. GREAT WHITE EAGLE no doubt
will be smart but I don't know much about him
or whether he needs further and there are some
horses that have more experience than him and
that have recorded a better Racing Post Rating.
I respect ASTAIRE but not sure I like Stall 13 with
13 runners. HOT STREAK may be seen both as a
positive and negative. Should we be betting any
horse in a Group 1 race that ran just 7 days ago ?
On the other hand he could have a fitness edge
and when I Looked at Group 1 races at this time
of year for horses with very recent runs I noticed
Kevin Ryan has won with a quick returner back
in 2006 with Palace Episode in the Dewhurst. In
the end I decided to oppose HOT STREAK. He's
so far he may not stay 6f. I know he won his 1st
race over 6f but only in a weak maiden and it's
interesting he hasn't got home in either 6f race
he's had since. In this Class I don't think he will
stay. SUDIRMAN has a big chance but he might
want faster ground and if you look at the history
of this race not many winners drop in trip here.
I like SUPPLICANT as he is almost identical to
the 2007 winner and comes from a good trial
race and loves the ground. I think the sensible
option is to save on GREAT WHITE EAGLE too.
Selection
SUPPLICANT 7/1 Win Bet
GREAT WHITE EAGLE 9/4 Saver


Y o r k 2.55
7/2 Outer Space, 7/2 Rufford, 5/1 Mushir, 6/1 Brave Boy
6/1 Figure Of Speech, Haikbidiac, 12/1 Online Alexander
20/1 No Leaf Clover, 25/1 Northern Water, 33/1 Blurred Vision.

* The Rockingham is a Listed race for 2yo's at 6f
* There are 21 past renewals
* Look at the number of runs past winners had
* 7 8 5 6 2 4 4 7 9 3 6 4 9 3 4 5 7 7 3
* I'd be worried about horses with 1-2 runs
* MUSHIR - I'd be very worried with 1 career run
* He will be smart but none won when so inexperienced
* ONLINE ALEXANDER wouldnt interest me with 2 runs
* OUTER SPACE also only has 2 career runs
* Thats less than every past winner since 1991 bar one
* The only winner with 2 runs (2007) was a filly
* She didn't have to come from a 5f race
* ONLINE ALEXANDER does come from 5f
* OUTER SPACE does as well and that's another problem
* Look at the last 21 renewals of this race
* Only the 1993 winner came from a 5f race
* That winner only had 3 opponents
* 3 of the 4 runners came from 5f races that year
* Horses very rarely win this from 5f races
* ONLINE ALEXANDER - Profile is not good enough
* OUTER SPACE - Profile is not good enough
* BLURRED VISION is a maiden
* None of the last 21 winners were maidens
* NORTHERN WATER shouldn't win at these weights
* NO LEAF CLOVER is even worse in at the weights
* No horse has won this beaten in a Nursery last time
* NO LEAF CLOVER fails that and is rejected
Shortlist

* BRAVE BOY - Acceptable profile

* HAIKBIDIAC - Not out of it but ground and draw a worry
* FIGURE OF SPEECH - Chance but did last run leave a mark ?
* RUFFORD - Same profile as 2005 winner
Selection
RUFFORD 7/2 Win Bet
HAIKBIDIAC 7/1 Saver Bet


C h e p s t o w 3.00
5/4 Killala Quay, 7/2 Rolling Maul,
7/1 Twice Returned, 11/1 Jigsaw Puzzle, 14/1 I Am Colin
16/1 Perfect Candidate, Flemengo, 28/1 Be Marvellous
28/1 L Frank Baum, Wynn Darwi, 50/1 Dont Call Me Oscar.
* This is a 2m 4f Novice Hurdle
* I looked at similar races in October
* There are no very strong or very weak profiles here
* PERFECT CANDIDATE is a 6yo seasonal debutant
* Ran his profile with 5 runs and found a 0-15 record
* KILLALA QUAY is 6 won a Novice Hurdle 3 + months ago
* There were 5 horses that had his profile
* They all started under 3/1 and finished W 3 2 2 4
* It's competent but hardly bet compelling
* On the one hand his stable are in brilliant form
* On the other he will start shorter than he's entitled
* ROLLING MAUL won a Bumper when last seen
* Two winners of this in 2011 were not unsimilar
* TWICE RETURNED is comes from a maiden hurdle
* Horses with his profile without a recent run are 1-9
* 6 were outsiders. Those starting under 20/1 were W 2 4
Selection
This smells to be like a Split Stake race and I would
have done that had prices been available. I wanted
a place bet on ROLLING MAUL but he is too short to
bet now. My win bet was to have been KILLALA QUAY
but now I think about it I'm questioning why I should
bet him at odds on without a good profile. I think the
better bet is ROLLING MAUL each way given that we
have had 2 recent winners of this with a similar profile.
Selection
ROLLING MAUL 3/1
Each Way

N e w m a r k e t 3.10
6/5 War Command, 7/4 Outstrip, 6/1 Anjaal
14/1 Cable Bay, 14/1 Friendship, 66/1 Stormardal.
A small field Dewhurst is not my cup of tea when
it is a weak angles race anyway. There wont be
much between OUTSTRIP and WAR COMMAND.
If I had to guess it would be WAR COMMAND as
he has an extra run. That may not sound much
but having 4 runs rather than 3 is 25% extra and
that counts a lot. He has a W W 3 W record and
he had a good excuse for his defeat as hardly
any Coventry Stakes winners follow up having
been absent as long as he was. No real betting
interest. ANJAAL is a pesky threat I can not rule
out but I'm not opposing WAR COMMAND.

Selection - WAR COMMAND 11/10 Win Bet

Y o r k 3.30
13/2 Baccarat, 8/1 An Saighdiur, 8/1 Hallelujah
8/1 Louis The Pious, 10/1 Doc Hay, 10/1 Khubala
10/1 Seeking Magic, 12/1 Ancient Cross, 12/1 Mass Rally
12/1 Spinatrix, Valbchek, 14/1 Bogart, 16/1 Confessional
20/1 Harrison George, 20/1 Jimmy Styles
20/1 Pastoral Player, 25/1 Borderlescott
25/1 Humidor, 25/1 Secret Witness.
* This is a Class 2 Handicap over 6f
* There are just 31 similar races in October
* Look at Handicaps here with 10 + runners
* Look at the draw of the last 11 winners
* 10 10 12 19 14 18 18 14 19 14 18
* That show's a massive high draw bias
* The race before that went to a Stall 1 (Van Ellis)
* Take nothing from Granted but low numbers are weak
FITNESS
* This seems the important factor here
* There are 9 renewals of this race
* The 9 winners had 14 6 15 6 10 12 7 22 14 runs that season
* The 9 winners were absent 7 8 14 21 14 14 15 8 10 days
* The 2012 winner had 2 runs in the previous 21 days
* The 2011 winner had 2 runs in the previous 29 days
* The 2010 winner had 2 runs in the previous 25 days
* The 2009 winner had 2 runs in the previous 34 days
* The 2008 renewal was abandoned
* The 2007 winner had 2 runs in the previous 21 days
* The 2006 winner had 2 runs in the previous 22 days
* The 2005 winner had 2 runs in the previous 27 days
* The 2004 winner had 2 runs in the previous 14 days
* The 2003 winner had 2 runs in the previous 22 days
You clearly want at least 6 runs this season like every
past winner. Every previous winner ran within 3 weeks
and 8 of the 9 winners ran within 2 weeks. These also
had at least two runs in the last 34 days so recent runs
looks quite important and the following are rejected.
* JIMMY STYLES is out aged 9 with 1 run since May
* VALBCHEK is underraced this season
* HALLELUJAH is short of runs with just 1 since June
* He is also badly drawn as well
* ANCIENT CROSS is badly drawn and no recent run
* As a 9yo winning last time he is wrong
* BORDERLESCOTT is too old and up in trip
* LOUIS THE PIOUS has just 1 run in 56 days
* Drawn 1 it's not a good enough profile
* BACCARAT does not have a very recent run
* He has raced just once in 56 days
* Hardly impossible to overcome but it worries me
* He doesn't fit in with any past winners
* BACCARAT is 4 and has just 9 career starts
* In 31 similar races there were 9 winners aged 4
* These had 20 30 25 17 23 31 22 21 12 previous runs
* Those like BACCARAT with under 12 runs were 0-19
* Those with under 17 runs were just 1-25
* These races haven't gone to lightly raced 4yo's
* BACCARAT doesn't offer me enough
* AN SAIGHDIUR is 6 years old
* One run in 3 weeks and 2 runs in 55 days
* That has not been enough in this race
* I looked at horses aged 6 or more
* Those from 6f races without a run in 2 weeks
* I found a 1-64 record from horses like him
* AN SAIGHDIUR looks too risky and not well treated
* HUMIDOR has the same problem as a 6yo
* He fails that 1-64 statistic and looks an unlikely winner
* SECRET WITNESS hasn't been running well enough
* HARRISON GEORGE has never won off this mark
* Not saying much for an 8yo well beaten last time
* SEEKING MAGIC has had just 1 run in 70 days
* That's not the norm of past winners
* PASTORAL PLAYER - I needed a better last run
* He may find 6f here in a big field too much
* There were 8 winners coming from 5f races
* These were all aged 3-4-5
* Horses aged 6 or more from 5f races were 0-35
* CONFESSIONAL fails this as a 6yo
* He's never won within 5lbs of this mark
* He also looks best at 5f
Possibles
* KHUBALA is 4 and well beaten last time
* Further than any 4yo winner and he isn't well treated
* Tough handicap mark and a poor last run to overcome
* Couldn't rule him out but hardly a strong profile
* SPINATRIX - Profile would be good if she was male
* I just can't match her to any exposed mares winning
* She is 0-7 in this Class and never won off this mark
* Without track form she gets no benefit of the doubt
Shortlist
* DOC HAY is 6 and comes from a 5f race
* We know no horse aged 6 has yet won doing this
* DOC HAY comes from a 5f Listed race
* I can find 2 winners aged 5 doing this
* I'd be inclined to shortlist him
* Two runs in 2 weeks is a big help
* He is well drawn and in form
* I'd have liked some track form but he's shortlisted
* BOGART is 4 and well beaten last time
* No 4yo won a similar race after such a bad defeat
* I can forgive him that last run
* Especially in the Ayr Gold Cup given his draw
* MASS RALLY's profile isn't flawless
* 6 year olds from 6f without a run in 2 weeks are 1-64
* He gets great credit for winning here in May
* There was no shame in his 7th in the Wokingham
* MASS RALLY then placed in a Group 3 race
* It was a small field but he had the worst draw
* He was then out of his depth in a Group race in Ireland
* There were several Group 1 sprinters in that race
* He then went to York and was a bit disappointing
* It was a Listed race though and better than this
* His Ayr Gold Cup run last time is interesting
* He missed the break and was last after the start
* Made nice ground late without being asked for much
* If he doesn't blow the start he could win this

Last Sunday we backed the Prix de l'Abbaye winner
MAAREK at 8/1 and also saved on the second. If you
remember I did some "Racing Post Ratings" analysis
which showed the horses that had the highest figures
on soft ground in 5f races. The analysis worked a treat.

Tom Segal has often stated YORK form is unreadable
and that time after time York horses win and then get
beaten elsewhere. The reverse is also true when you
find horses doing little and then win here when they
had ran well at the track before. Therefore I tried this.
* Racing Post Ratings of 100 or more
* Achieved only over this 6f distance at York
* Must be in the past two years
109 MASS RALLY - BOGART
108 None
107 BOGART
106 LOUIS THE PIOUS
105 None
104 HALLELUJAH
103 SECRET WITNESS
102 HALLELUJAH KHUBALA
101 None
100 BOGART
* BOGART has the Joint 1st, 3rd 9th best figure
* MASS RALLY has the Joint 1st figure
Selection
MASS RALLY 14/1 Each Way
BOGART 16/1 Win Bet

C h e p s t o w 3.35
5/4 Berkeley Barron, 4/1 Potters Cross
11/2 Lightentertainment, 17/2 Amore Alato
9/1 Spookydooky, 12/1 Exemplary, 12/1 Tijori
25/1 Puerto Azul, 28/1 Native Brian
33/1 Echoes Of Joy, 40/1 Celtic Fella.
This is a 2m 4f Novice Hurdle. The profiles in this
race are so insipid that I am not sure we can trust
them. For example BERKELEY BARRON who won
a Novice Hurdle last season isn't quite right. I can
find 8 winners aged 5 coming from Novice Hurdles
last year but all were beaten last time. Those that
won like BERKELEY BARRON were 0-3 and maybe
the penalty hurts them on their seasonal debut. I
don't feel confident here. LIGHTENTERTAINMENT
just fell short as well. Push me for the best profile
and I would probably argue it falls between these.
AMORE ALATO - EXEMPLARY - POTTERS CROSS
I think POTTERS CROSS should run well and I've
found a horse called Moonwolf who won a very
similar race to this with a profile like EXEMPLARY.
Selection
POTTERS CROSS Each Way 4/1
EXEMPLARY 8/1 Win Bet


N e w m a r k e t 3.40

I sent some Cesarewitch Statistics a few days ago
knowing it was very unlikely I'd be interested in a
huge field like this. I just casually looked at which
horses passed my angles and came up with just 2.
DOMINATION - LIEUTENANT MILLER
What we known now that we didn't then was the
draw. People are saying a low draw is best but I
don't agree. Bottom line is that since 2001 there
were 4 races over this course and distance. The
4 winners were drawn 8 1 9 36 which is a lowest
and highest draw and two middle ones. I do not
see any reason to change my view. SMOKY HILL
could be added as a saver. I would include him
in any staking plan with LIEUTENANT MILLER a
reasonable choice as is DOMINATION but this is
not a handicap I am targeting in any way at all.

N e w m a r k e t 4.25
8/11 Lightning Thunder, 5/1 Al Thakhira
7/1 Valonia, 8/1 Lustrous, 10/1 Ventura Mist
14/1 Hoku, 20/1 Blockade, 50/1 Ifrika
50/1 Thewandaofu.
* The Rockfel Stakes has 15 renewals
* Not a significant race for my kind of angles
* I know that there were 3 winners from maidens
* AL THAKHIRA comes from a 6f maiden
* The 2003 winner did this but I'd prefer experience
* There were 4 winners that dropped from a Mile
* These 4 winners had 4 7 5 6 runs
* Horses doing this with under 4 runs were 0-20
* LUSTROUS has to attempt this with just 2 runs
* She doesn't come close enough to any past winner
* There will be dangers like VALONIA who is respected
* LIGHTNING THUNDER does set a decent standard
* I don't like anything enough against him
* LIGHTNING THUNDER - I wouldn't oppose him

C h e p s t o w 4.45
3/1 For Two, 4/1 Another Hero, 9/2 Handazan
5/1 Swnymor, 6/1 Bob´s World, 13/2 Leo Luna
11/1 Pistol, 25/1 In The Crowd
I am ducking this 4yo handicap this year.
Too many nearly profiles. Take FOR TWO
the favourite coming via a 4yo only race
last year. The winners doing that had ran
4 times over hurdles and he has just 3 so
if FOR TWO has a fault he could just be a
run short. This handicap tends to go to a
seasonal debutant. ANOTHER HERO does
not fit that. He's already raced this season
in Novice Hurdles. I looked at that profile
and although I found a 0-8 record it was
interesting that most of them placed. It's
almost as if they are vulnerable to those
better handicapped seasonal debutants
but fit enough to get place. That's why I
would have a split stake bet if betting in
this race. I have no strong opinion as to
what will win but ANOTHER HERO would
be my place bet 4/5 in any split Stake bet.

N e w m a r k e t 5.25
6/1 Short Squeeze, 7/1 Afonso De Sousa
7/1 French Navy, 8/1 Kassiano, 8/1 Tales Of Grimm
8/1 Tullius, 10/1 Pavlosk, 12/1 Premio Loco
14/1 Gabrial, 16/1 Chapter Seven 20/1 Bronze Angel
20/1 Farraaj, 25/1 Fantastic Moon 25/1 Highland Knight
40/1 Amralah 50/1 Proud Chieftain.
* The Darley Stakes is a Group 3 over 9f
* I think you need a horse with several runs this year
* Recent winners had the following runs this year
* 7 5 6 8 4 1 5 12 7 6 11 4 5 4 7 7 6 8 5 4
* I would want at least 4 runs this season
* AFONSO DE SOUSA only has 2 runs this season
* I would want more for a 3 year old
* No 3yo had 1-2-3 runs this season in this race
* Only 1 had 1-2-3-4 runs and he had Group 1 form
* I am against these 3yo's with 1-2-3 runs
* FANTASTIC MOON - AMRALAH
* TULLIUS is rejected as a seasonal debutant
* He may pop up but none like him have won
* Stall 1 may not help him anyway
* TALES OF GRIMM is out with just 2 runs this season
* FRENCH NAVY is out for similar reasons
* BRONZE ANGEL is hard to fancy with 1 run this season
* PROUD CHIEFTAIN is outclassed at the weights
* No 3yo filly has won this race before
* PAVLOSK is a 3yo filly and absent 50 days
* I don't see that as a safe profile with just 5 career starts
* She's be the joint least experienced winner anyway
* FARRAAJ should lack the right fitness
* He has 47 days off and just 1 run since last April
* PREMIO LOCO is 2 years older than all 23 past winners
* HIGHLAND KNIGHT is going up 3 grades in Class

Shortlist
* GABRIAL - Not too bad a profile but unreliable
* Not sure I like his draw in Stall 2 either
* CHAPTER SEVEN is an exposed 4yo
* He is well raced this year though unlike many
* He is 4 and comes from a Handicap
* The 1996 and 2003 winners did that
* Both had 6 runs that season
* CHAPTER SEVEN has 6 runs this year
* They did come from the Cambridgeshire
* CHAPTER SEVEN doesn't but he is a big price
* SHORT SQUEEZE is 3 and comes from a handicap
* Positives and Negatives for him
* He doesn't have much backclass for a 3 year old
* It could be asking too much going up in distance
* One horse aged 3 won this from a handicap in 1995
* He didn't come up in trip and was far lighter raced
* SHORT SQUEEZE is however improving significantly
* He does look Group Class so I want to shortlist him
* My angles are saying "No" to his chance
* I think there is an excellent compromise solution
* He could be a saver either Win or Place
* KASSIANO is smart and needs shortlisting
* He has been with Godolphin for 2 races now
* I think his last disappointing race is forgivable
* It was only his 2nd run after a long break
* Not sure about the ground for him
* Could be a mistake not to save at 10/1
Selection

CHAPTER SEVEN 16/1 Each Way
SHORT SQUEEZE Place Saver 5/4

C h e p s t o w 5.45
6/1 Pete The Feat, 6/1 Theatrical Star
7/1 Storm Survivor, 8/1 Merrion Square, 9/1 Ace High
10/1 Duke Of Lucca, 10/1 Join Together
12/1 Well Refreshed, 14/1 Court By Surprise
14/1 Rebeccas Choice, 14/1 What A Warrior
16/1 Al Co, 16/1 Alfie Spinner, 16/1 Alvarado
33/1 Mostly Bob, 33/1 Nataani.
This is a 3m Handicap Chase. If this race had been
on Sunday I would have given it far more time. So
difficult to nail this it probably isn't worth trying to.
I thought JOIN TOGETHER had too much weight to
win first time. I don't like WHAT A WARRIOR as he's
a 6yo seasonal debutant. If you look at debutants it
is clear you want 6-11 Chase starts ideally and those
like PETE THE FEAT with 20 previous Chase runs are
a bit too exposed for me. THEATRICAL STAR would
not my first choice from a Novice Chase last season.
WELL REFRESHED may find his handicap mark too
high to overcome considering this is first time out.
STORM SURVIVOR is neither a debutant or a horse
that has a recent run and that puts him in a difficult
place winning last time 104 days ago. I don't think
MERRION SQUARE is safe and not sure his owners
would want him to win this first time out anyway.
Shortlist
* AL CO - The last 3 winners had recent runs
* Easy to knock this horse but I want him on side
* I looked at 8yo seasonal debutants
* When having 7-8-9 previous Chase starts
* There was a 4-12 record with these horses
* The 2007-2008 winners of this had that profile
* COURT BY SURPRISE has this profile today
* His Trainer Emma Lavelle has twice won this race
* Her stable are in brilliant form
* Her last 8 runners finished W 2 W W W 3 W W
* ALVARADO is an 8yo debutant too
* He has 11 Chase runs and the 2009 winner had the same
* ALVARADO's profile is similar and he goes well fresh
* ALFIE SPINNER has the same profile as well
* Seems to go well fresh and deserves respect

* DUKE OF LUCCA is another 8yo debutant
* With 13 Chase runs I can live with that
* His trainer won with a similar type last year
* Balthazar King won with 14 Chase runs in a similar race
* As long as the rain isn't too bad he's a player
If I tried to split these it would be a guess given
I am getting very short of time now. By this time
if the message is doing really well then I should
be forgiven not having a selection. If its flopping
then you may be better off choosing it yourself !

Best Wishes
Guy Ward

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