Dear Member
Thursday April 3rd
Main Account - No Bet
Optional Account -5 Bets
Message contains 9 Previews
First day of the Aintree Festival today and pleased
to see April begin as I can get rid of the last Month
which was not pleasant. Ready to get back to work
now. I don't plan to make a song and dance about
the Grand National in terms of seperate messages
and all that. I think I will just keep in in a Saturday
message. Today I am going to prioritise Aintree as
the main meeting. There are slim pickings at other
tracks. Most of the horses I like there are too short.
O p t i o n a l A c c o u n t (5 Bets)
Aintree 2.30 Match Bet - HOUBLON DES OBEAUX to beat Argocat 11/10 (Lost )
Aintree 3.05 Match Bet - PTIT ZIG to beat Irish Saint 4/5 + ( WON )
Aintree 3.40 - WARNE 4/1 Each Way ( WON )
Aintree 4.15 - KINGS GREY 20/1 Each Way (Lost )
Aintree 5.25 - DOCTOR HARPER 12/1 Win Bet ( WON )
T o d a y s B e t s D i s c u s s e d
Main Account
I have gone with No Bet. There were 3 races that may
have developped into an account bet. KINGS GREY at
4.15pm and DOCTOR HARPER at 5.25pm are in difficult
races and I don't feel I have made a good enough case
in either race so I am relegating them to Optional Bets.
WARNE 4/1 Each Way in the 3.40 is another that could
easily have been one account bet. I was in two minds
about him. There are a few things to bear in mind here.
* There are only traditionally 3 places for each way bets
* Bet365 Skybet PPower 888Sport are giving you 4 places
* These should be the firms you try to bet with here
* Personally I am tempted by WARNE without the favourite
* WARNE is 5/2 each way without Mossy Joe in the bet
Optional Account
* I have gone with 5 bets
* 2 of these are Match Bets so un-tippable on the main accoiunt
* The 3 other bets were considered as main account bets
* I decided not to upgrade these bets
* I could have had 7 bets rather than 5
* Taunton 2.45 GARDE LA VICTOIRE 4/6 Win Bet
* Wolverhampton 6.15 TRAVEL 10/11 Win Bet
* I shall leave these as they are short prices
* With 5 bets there already I don't need any more
Today's Best Bet
Aintree 3.40
WARNE 4/1 Each Way
Ideally with 4 places otherwise 3
P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S
A i n t r e e 2.00
11/4 Calipto, 9/2 Activial, 5/1 Guitar Pete, 7/1 Fox Norton
11/1 Broughton, 11/1 Hawk High, 12/1 Clarcam, 14/1 Aurore D4estruval
14/1 Commissioned, 16/1 Baradari, 33/1 Agreement, 33/1 Handiwork
33/1 Violet Dancer, 50/1 Dispour, 50/1 Rhamnus.
* This is a Grade 1 hurdle for 4 year olds over 2m 1f
* I'd ignore horses with under 3 hurdle runs
* Only 1 Triumph Hurdle winner has managed this
* COMMISSIONED - RHAMNUS - AGREEMENT fail this
* ACTIVIAL has only had 2 hurdle starts as well
* Horses from Non Graded 2m Novice Hurdles have a poor record
* AURORE D4ESTRUVAL fails this and is therefore rejected
* AGREEMENT also fails this
* DISPOUR just hasn't done enough
* Horses that came from handicaps were just 1-28
* That was a 40/1 shock result in a poor year
* That winner had 10 hurdle runs which was unsual
* Horses from Handicaps are probably best ignored
* VIOLET DANCER - HANDIWORK - BARADARI fail this
* CLARCAM also comes from a handicap
* No past winner like him fell or unseated last time out
* HAWK HIGH comes from winning a Cheltenham Handicap
* We know horses doing this are just 1-28
* He has a Career best Racing Post Rating of 128
* Past winners had these R.P. Ratings before winning
* 133 145 149 128 155 148 154 152 141 123
* HAWK HIGH figure of 128 would win 1 of the last 10 renewals
* ACTIVIAL also has a 128 Racing Post Rating
* He has failed an earlier statistic with just 2 hurdle runs
* Horses absent 6 weeks or more are 0-39
* FOX NORTON fails that and no winner came from a 3yo race
* The Triumph Hurdle is the best trial
* This year we have the 3rd 4th and 8th from that race
* GUITAR PETE was 3rd in the Triumph Hurdle
* I opposed him at Cheltenham
* Wasn't sure he would stay 17f around there
* This 17f is actually a stiffer test than Cheltenham
* It taked a few seconds more to run this Aintree distance
* That places even more pressure on his stamina
* I'm going to assume there are more guaranteed stayers here
* BROUGHTON was well beaten in the Triumph
* There have been winners well beaten in that race
* If he does pop up it should be no statistical surprise
* CALIPTO was 4th in the Triumph Hurdle
* The jockeys stirrup leather snapped two hurdles out
* Going well at the time he would have gone close
* CALIPTO is more like past winners than most
* The danger is if it is a bad Triumph hurdle this year
* If so then the likes of Actival and Hawk High could threaten
* I am staying with Triumph Hurdle form
* I am taking the view if CALIPTO runs his race
* Then there should not be 3 horses to beat him
Selection
CALIPTO 7/2
Each Way
L i n g f i e l d 2.20
7/4 Shama, 11/4 Court Room, 3/1 Classic Devotion
10/1 Ganymede, 12/1 Magnus Romeo, 20/1 Filosofo
25/1 Bongo Beat, 25/1 Effect.
* This is a 10f Maiden for 3 year olds
* SHAMA has always been well thought of
* She was big and very backward this year
* I'd expect a good season for this 3yo filly in the Oaks
* COURT ROOM has raced once only 12 days ago
* I looked at horses from maidens within the last 3 weeks
* Not a good 2-97 record
* Those like COURT ROOM with 1 career start were 1-36
* That horse (Off Chance) was Female and ran better last time
* 3yo males with this profile were 0-23
* COURT ROOM's profile leaves me cold
* I feel the seasonal debutants are far safer
* SHAMA and CLASSIC DEVOTION look best
* CLASSIC DEVOTION could easily be the right bet each way
* Hard to judge the pair or to stake the pair
* I think SHAMA is the most likely winner
Selection
SHAMA 11/8
Win Bet
A i n t r e e 2.30
13/8 Silviniaco Conti, 2/1 Dynaste, 100/30 First Lieutenant
11/1 Menorah, 16/1 Houblon Des Obeaux, 20/1 Argocat.
This years Aintree Bowl Chase has just 6 runners and It does
look like three big runner especially as Menorah is short of
runs this year and Argocat the wrong age. The three horses
that dominate this all had something to prove. DYNASTE has
less experience than most past winners and has to come up
in distance. SILVINIACO CONTI has to recover from his hard
race in the Gold Cup. FIRST LIEUTENANT has a longer than
ideal absence. In last seasons race FIRST LIEUTENANT won
with SILVINIACO CONTI a dissapointing third but he made a
crucial mistake and wasn't given a positive ride and he may
well reverse that form. He is after all the far better horse on
official ratings and has a better preparartion this year. There
are 5 horses winning this race that ran within 10 lengths of a
Cheltenham Gold Cup winner as SILVINIACO CONTI did last
time and he is closest to Exotic Dancer the 2007 winner. The
other danger DYNASTE has a serious chance. Statistically a
close call but in profiles I just shade it to SILVINIACO CONTI
but see both as potential winners. Racing Post Ratings say
that SILVINIACO CONTI's Gold Cup 4th was 1lbs better than
DYNASTE's Ryanair Chase win. I'd agree there is not much
between them. SILVINIACO CONTI is probably better value.
Selection
SILVINIACO CONTI 5/2
Win Bet
Match Bet
Houblon Des Obeaux to beat Argocat evens or better
I think it's a case of Houblon Des Obeaux outstaying him
as I have my doubts Argocat is going to last this distance.
T a u n t o n 2.45
8/11 Garde La Victoire, 7/2 Vesperal Dream
11/2 Almost Gemini, 8/1 Ring Eye, 12/1 Playhara, 20/1 Garton Star
25/1 Italian Symphony, 33/1 Ollisu Lad, 40/1 Dream Destiny
40/1 Stella4s Fella, 50/1 Rattleandrun, 66/1 Ernest Speak
66/1 Strategic Exit.
I would forgive GARDE LA VICTOIRE his run at Cheltenham
and his defeat on Soft at Kempton. To be fair both runs had
Racing Post ratings of 140 and 136 and don't really need to
be forgiven. He faces promising opposition but they have a
lot of improvement to find. I think he will take this hurdle.
Selection
GARDE LA VICTOIRE 4/6
Win Bet
A i n t r e e 3.05
2/5 The New One, 8/1 Diakali, 8/1 Rock On Ruby
14/1 Grandouet, 14/1 Ptit Zig, 25/1 Irish Saint
40/1 Grumeti.
* The Aintree hurdle is a Grade 1 over 2m 4f
* Hard to see past THE NEW ONE unlucky in the Champion Hurdle
* His price is very short though
* DIAKALI is smart and will relish the small field
* 5 year olds don't score well though in this race
* DIAKALI also comes from a handicap
* 2 past winners did that but both were older
* These 2 winners came from the 2m 5f Coral Cup
* DIAKALI has to go up in trip from the County Hurdle
* IRISH SAINT has the same problem as a 5yo
* He also comes up in distance from a handicap
* PTIT ZIG is another 5yo and held by the favourite
* GRANDOUET comes from a Chase
* None of the previous winners did that
* ROCK ON RUBY also comes from a Chase
* With no horse winning doing this it is harder to choose these
* There is not a safe profile against the favourite
* THE NEW ONE looks the winner
Selection - THE NEW ONE
Obviously not worth bothering with
7 runners makes any place bets harder
If I had to nominate an alternative it would be a match bet
Match Bet
PTIT ZIG to beat IRISH SAINT
* Both horses are from the same stable
* Ratings give PTIT ZIG an 8lbs advantage
* Look at their career hurdle racing post ratings
* The latest rating is the most recent
PTIT ZIG - 85 107 - 112 136 144 149 160 155 160
IRISH SAINT - 114 135 141 138 139 149 122 152 151
IRISH SAINT has a career best RPR of 152 and yet
PTIT ZIG has comfortably beaten that on each of
his last 3 runs and just looks the more substantial.
A i n t r e e 3.40
6/4 Mossey Joe, 4/1 Warne, 7/1 Supreme Doc, 8/1 Richard4s Sundance
10/1 Cottage Oak, 12/1 Brunswick Gold, 14/1 Pentiffic, 14/1 Tartan Snow
16/1 Boxer Georg, 20/1 Cool Friend, 25/1 Court Red Handed, 25/1 Earth Dream
50/1 Dead Or Alive, 50/1 Sizing America, 66/1 Douglas Julian
66/1 Fresh Air And Fun, 66/1 Harry Flashman, 66/1 Island Life
66/1 Keenan4s Future, 66/1 Swallows Delight, 100/1 Himalayan Express
100/1 Orfeo Conti.
This is a Hunter Chase and therefore not a race I can
pretend I know much about. Ratings aren't everything
in these races but MOSSEY JOE rated 152 is dominant
here rated at least 13lbs higher than every other horse
in the race. Previous winners that had earnt a rating
before were rated at least 116. PENTIFFIC is not rated
that highly. Neither is SWALLOWS DELIGHT or several
others like COOL FRIEND and I'd oppose all of these.
Shortlist
* WARNE - Great chance if you ignore a poor Irish record
* MOSSEY JOE - His rating makes him automatic favourite
* No Official runs since last June is not a positive statistically
* You have to weight that up against a recent Point 2 Point win
I'm sceptical Mossey Joe can run to his rating. He may not
need to and has to go close but surely WARNE each way is
the bet. He was bought recently by the Waley-Cohen's only
to give the Sonthe chance of winning this race. He's a good
jumper and it is very hard to see him finishing too far away.
He was 4th in last years race having been hampered.
Selection
WARNE 4/1
Each Way
A i n t r e e 4.15
4/1 Claret Cloak, 6/1 Sound Investment, 13/2 Arnaud
7/1 Turn Over Sivola, 12/1 Changing The Guard, 14/1 Dare Me
14/1 Last Shot, 14/1 Oiseau De Nuit, 16/1 Anay Turge, 16/1 Kings Grey
16/1 Off The Ground, 20/1 Anquetta, 20/1 Astracad, 20/1 Parsnip Pete
20/1 Sew On Target, 25/1 Gus Macrae, 33/1 Bullet Street.
* This is a 2m Handicap Chase
* CLARET CLOAK fails a Generic Statistic
* Horses aged 7 in handicap chases with 11st or more
* Only 1 has won from 72 that tried and he has 11st 8lbs
* That winner (Edelweis Du Moulin) only had 7 opponents as well
* CLARET CLOAK maybe should have won the Grand Annual
* It's the weight and age that bothers me and the price
* SOUND INVESTMENT comes from a Novice Chase
* Horses doing that in this race were 0-15
* That means he is not like any recent winner
* SOUND INVESTMENT also lacks Graded form
* 20 of the last 21 winners had Graded Form
* SOUND INVESTMENT is 6 and only 2 winners were aged 6
* One had Grade 1 form the other won the Grand Annual
* SOUND INVESTMENT has only just won two small field Novices
* BULLET STREET is rejected as a 6yo with no Graded form
* OISEAU DE NUIT won this last year as a 11yo
* Not keen this year aged 12 with 11st 12lbs and a fall last time
* GUS MACRAE isn't running well enough
* ANQUETTA is not offering any encouragement
* SEW ON TARGET ran badly last time out
* He has to drop from 2m4f to 2m
* The only winners doing that had Grade 1 form he doesn't
* He has a career high mark and has only won in Class 3 or lower
* PARSNIP PETE may prefer it a bit softer
* Not sure about his reliability in a big field either
* Too many doubts for my liking
* ANAY TURGE's recent Chase form is uninspiring
* He has unseated rider 3 times in his last 9 chase runs
* He has won 3 times in those 9 races as well though
* Not overkeen given he has a 7lbs rider
* ASTRACAD fell in this race last year
* He is best in a small field
* I can't risk him with so many runners at Aintree
* Not off a career high mark and in a Class he hasn't won in before
* DARE ME - I wouldn't have minded another recent run
* He is another unproven in this class and off his current rating
* CHANGING THE GUARD is an ex Flat horse
* These have won before so I couldn't rule him out
* His Chase form so far is in small fields
* He flopped in his only Chase run in a big field
* I dont like his record in big fields over hurdles either
* He is not a big horse and that may be the reason why
* LAST SHOT is exposed over fences and unseated last time
* He is another described as not very big
* I try to avoid smaller horses in these races
* There were 4 winners aged 7 like LAST SHOT
* They all had far fewer chase runs than he does
* He also lacks the required backclass
* OFF THE GROUND comes from a Grade 1 Novice Chase
* No past winner won with that profile
* ARNAUD is interesting as an Irish 6 year old
* He comes from a Graded Novice and no winners did that
* He also has a 68 day absence to overcome
* No horse under 8 years old won absent more than 36 days
* We have had a recent 6yo winner with just 4 Chase starts
* No 6yo has won with anything like his weight
* He has a 7lbs claimer but none of those have won this race
* He is Sexy enough but lots to prove as a 6yo
* Not least 68 days off and a difficult weight
Shortlist
* TURN OVER SIVOLA is a lightly raced 7yo
* Reasonable weight there is lots to like
* KINGS GREY was 4th in last years race
* That 4th came on the back of a 96 day break
* He only had 3 runs that season before that 4th
* Today he has more and that must help
* Horses aged 10 like him havent done well
* He didn't start racing until he was 6 though
* I think he is the value in an open race
Selection
KINGS GREY 20/1
Each Way
A i n t r e e 5.25
8/1 Jetson, 17/2 Busty Brown, 9/1 Riverside Theatre
10/1 Doctor Harper, 10/1 On The Bridge, 10/1 Two Rockers
11/1 Carole4s Destrier, 12/1 Kaylif Aramis, 12/1 Spirit Of Shankly
14/1 Cantlow, 14/1 Josies Orders, 16/1 Any Given Day
16/1 Big Easy, 16/1 Meister Eckhart, 16/1 Seefood, 20/1 Close House
20/1 Edgardo Sol, 20/1 Return Spring, 20/1 Uncle Jimmy
20/1 Utopie Des Bordes, 25/1 Crowning Jewel, 33/1 Pateese.
I don't want to spend much time on a handicap hurdle with
more than 20 runners. These horses failed Generic Statistics.
Riverside Theatre - Edgardo Sol - Any Given Day
Two Rockers - Return Spring- Big Easy - Jetson
The following horses have No previous Graded Form when
we know every past winner had ran in Graded races before.
* On The Bridge - Carole4s Destrier - Spirit Of Shankly
* Josies Orders - Uncle Jimmy - Pateese
* Past winners had the following runs that season
* 7 6 8 3 5 5 4 6 5 9 7 4 6 5 7
* Busty Brown only has 1 run and is rejected
* Meister Eckhart looks underraced as well
* JETSON - I have problems with his weight as an exposed horse
* Especially as he is a small undersized horse
* KAYLIF ARAMIS - Outside chance not for me
* CLOSE HOUSE looks stable 2nd string and not enticing enough
* CANTLOW didn't make much appeal but no negative
* SEEFOOD - Not keen on his weight as a 7 year old
Selection
DOCTOR HARPER 12/1
Win Bet
Obviously this is wide open. I have decided to go with
David Pipe's DOCTOR HARPER for the following reasons.
* Horses from Sandown's Novice Handicap Hurdle
* 4 horses came from the same race finishing W W PU W
* They were aged 6 6 6 5 and DOCTOR HARPER is 6
* They had 4 5 4 5 Hurdle runs and DOCTOR HARPER has 5
* He passes all my other Statistics in the race as well
* DOCTOR HARPER is the selection
Wolverhampton 6.15
TRAVEL 10/11
Not a good price but if you look at 4yo fillies running
in similar races the one winner had a very recent run
and I'd rather have TRAVEL with a 6 day absence than
market rival TRACKS OF MY TEARS another 4yo filly
who is absent 115 days. LACEY came out just average.
I thought TRAVEL would probably win this handicap.
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Best Wishes
Guy Ward
www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk
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