Mathematician 2401
Sunday August 21st

1 Bet today
0 Negative
3 Previews

The message today concentrates on just two
handicap hurdles at Worcester. Not normally
races that would figure highly for us but there
was not much interesting elsewhere. Brighton
offers scrappy fields. Nothing at the Curragh
tempted me. Only 1 minor Chelmsford race.


Today's Bet

Worcester 4.20

FOREVER FIELD 5/2-11/4

Each Way

11/4 Corals Ladbrokes Bet365 Boyles
11/4 Chandler PPower Betfair Independants
5/2 Skybet Betfred Stan James

Going with a 5/2-11/4 shot each way
Not really the kind of bet I wanted
But if I wanted a bet I had to compromise
I think I can beat the favourite
There should not be many that can win
If he can run his race going left handed
I think he can win
He has won left handed in a bumper
It's one of a small number few concerns I have
So to would another non runner
But I think if every horse runs to form he'll win

T o d a y s M e s s a g e

Highlighting 2 Bets today
Staking one of these
Both National Hunt bets

Worcester 4.20

FOREVER FIELD 5/2-11/4

Each Way


Worcester 4.50

£7 Win Bet DRY OL´PARTY 2/1

£3 Win Bet NORTHERN MEETING 100/30

Daily Negatives

No Negative Today

Results of Negatives
27 correct bets from 38


S a t u r d a y s R e v i e w

It is not always simple to know whether a message
is a good or bad one. Yesterdays can be seen in two
different ways. I suppose I was pleased overall that
we had a P W L L W finish which included the best
bet on SEA LIGHT. His price was under pressure
all morning. We can argue whether he should have
been a bet or not. He was 11/4 into 6/4 and jumping
the last in second place it was a 50-50 call whether
he would have won. So we will never know what we
should have done. I am just pleased it won and we
had the last winners and a profitable overall effort
which goes someway to compensating for a shorter
and rather limited Saturday. That's was brought on
by just too much to cover and getting bamboozled
by the cards just as I was on this day back in 2015.

P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s


C h e l m s f o r d 2.40

4/5 Accento, 11/4 Ningaloo, 10/1 Hajaj, 10/1 Tuscany
12/1 Qatar Man, 16/1 Crystal Dome, 16/1 Flauto
100/1 Av A Word, 100/1 Reach For Glory.

This is a 2yo maiden over 7f

ACCENTO has ran once
Sets a reasonable standard but no more
Not sure I'd want a once raced horse drawn 1 here
But can not show any supporting evidence to say that
Stamina is my problem with him
He ran like a non stayer to me at Doncaster
I didn't think he got the 7f here
There are some breeding doubts as well
So I would swerve him because of that
If he stays he will probably win
But not many can win this race
And we need to consider an unraced horse

Paul Cole runs TUSCANY
If you look at Paul Coles record
With unraced 2 year olds over 7f or more
There is a 0-54 record going back to 2010
Hard to trust the trainer with these types
NINGALOO could be the one
Expensive type. Prominent Stable. Well fancied.

Selection

NINGALOO 11/4

Each Way


W o r c e s t e r 4.20

9/4 Alcock And Brown, 11/4 Forever Field, 7/1 Act Alone
7/1 Authorized Too, 7/1 Jigsaw Financial, 10/1 Crimson Ark
12/1 Get Home Now, 16/1 Twentytwo´s Taken.

Handicap Hurdle over 2m 4f
Run for horses rated 0-130

ALCOCK AND BROWN is a warm favourite
He is a 4yo sired by Oasis Dream
He has had 3 Hurdle runs all in Novice Hurdles

Look at Handicap Hurdles in August
Class 3 or lower over any and every distance
Horses from Novice or Maiden Hurdles
Under 4 hurdle runs
These horses had a 7-161 record

Horses aged 4 like ALCOCK AND BROWN were 1-34
Those with previous Flat runs like him were just 2-57
Those with 9 or more career starts like him were 1-47
Hardly an encouraging set of results

This is over any distance in Class 3 or lower dont forget
The only 4yo that won with under 4 hurdle runs
Was a shock 25/1 winner in 2010 (Rebel Swing)
ALCOCK AND BROWN is not a similar type to him

I don't see a very safe profile
Given 4 year olds are just 1-34 with his profile
Now he may have just beaten a horse in Nikki Steel
Who came out and won easily yesterday
Which is partly why he is favourite for this race
As is the fact he has improvement in him
But his profile is weak
We can not know if he will stay this far
He was nothing special on the Flat
And we have the Oasis Dream connection to consider

I have had success and failure with this sire's hurdlers
So I am cautious using my standard 2 angles for him
However this one is a brand new angles never used before

Horses sired by Oasis Dream
Running over Hurdles
Any Distance
Running in Class 3 or higher are 0-37
ALCOCK AND BROWN fails this 0-37 record
He is trying to win in a Class of race
That none of his sires runners have yet done before
That 0-37 record and his profile
Leave me to think on balance we should look elsewhere

There are 3 horses with long absences

ACT ALONE is 7 absent 673 days
The longest absence any horse had was 238 days
Those like ACT ALONE with longer were 0-40
I can't find a lightly raced horse with an absence winning
GET HOME NOW is aged 8 absent 403 days
With 36 hurdle runs he looks too exposed
CRIMSON ARK is 6 and absent 136 days
He only has 3 hurdle runs

August Handicap Hurdles
Any Distance
Class 4 or higher
Male horses with under 5 hurdle runs
Won 8 races in an 8-79 record
These 8 horses had the following days absences
14 7 14 14 11 17 8 6 days
Those absent longer than 17 days were 0-53
That shows very lightly raced horses
Struggle when having any kind of absence
CRIMSON ARK has this problem
ACT ALONE also fails this 0-53 record
Funnily enough ALCOCK AND BROWN fails it too
Albeit only be a couple of weeks
TWENTYTWO´S TAKEN is a mare
She pulled up last time out
I don't see enough positives with her

Shortlist

AUTHORIZED TOO comes from a 2m hurdle
I can find a 5yo mare winning with a similar profile
No 5yo Males though
I wouldn't rule him out
But his profile is neutral at best
And he is a Racing Club horse
He did win last time out but this is a better race
And there are 2 others with stronger claims

JIGSAW FINANCIAL is 10 and won last time
He has never won in this class before
Never won off his current mark either
I was set to oppose him as he was so exposed
But my angles tell me not to rule him out
His profile is good enough to shortlist

FOREVER FIELD has one of the better profiles
Second last time in a stronger race than this
His last 5 Racing Post Ratings are 107 111 119 126 130
Thats progressive and he looks a huge runner

Selection

FOREVER FIELD 5/2-11/4

Each Way


W o r c e s t e r 4.50

7/2 Dry Ol´party, 7/2 Northern Meeting
9/2 Solstalla, 11/2 Lets Go Dutchess
10/1 Buy Me Out, 12/1 Canitbe, 16/1 Ginger Fizz
20/1 Faith Jicaro.

Mares Handicap Hurdle over 2m
Very few of these races in August
Only 9 Mares Handicap Hurdles at any distance
Just 2 came over this distance
So you can see the sample sizes are small

The 9 winners had the following hurdle runs
16 5 29 15 13 13 8 10 11
You can see lighter raced hurdles have dominated
Those with under 15 hurdle runs were 0-15

What we have here are two topweights
NORTHERN MEETING with 12 hurdle runs
DRY OL´PARTY with 11 hurdle runs
With an attractive profile and plenty to offer
Taking on some much less experienced types

I much prefer this pair over some lighter raced types
SOLSTALLA is only a 4yo with 4 hurdle runs
LETS GO DUTCHESS only has 3 hurdle runs
I would be happy to avoid these 2 horses
I don't like CANITBE with poor numbers
FAITH JICARO looks very beatable
GINGER FIZZ also looks hard to like
BUY ME OUT ran yesterday over 2m 5f
She finished last in a 3 horse race
Coming down to 2m within 1 day would worry me

I like these higher weighted horses
NORTHERN MEETING
DRY OL´PARTY

It strikes me they have decent profiles
Have several inexperienced types below them
And some older experienced plodders hard to like

Selection

£7 Win Bet DRY OL´PARTY 2/1

£3 Win Bet NORTHERN MEETING 100/30


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Best Wishes

Guy Ward

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

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