Mathematician 3125
Saturday January 19th

6 Races Discussed
0 Account Bet
1 Highlighted Bet

Highlighted Account

Haydock 12.55

SUGGESTION 5/1

Each Way

 

Betting The Message

6 meetings

6 Races discussed

Altior is clearly the biggest star
Just unbackable in a small field
Field sizes are a problem today
They have cut us down to 6 races

Hardly a day for classic messages
Main ambition is a decent winner
Not many looked suitable enough
Possibly two bets in this message
Offer the best chance of that winner

Haydock 12.55

Suggestion 5/1

Each Way

Navan 3.20

Milanesque 6/1

Each Way

SUGGESTION is my best bet
Making him a highlighted bet
Nothing between the accounts
Just don't feel this is a Saturday
Where we can get too ambitious
See him as a very fair e/w punt

Sundays Message

This will be later than normal
Aiming to send around 11.15am

 

PROFILES & PREVIEWS

 

Lingfield 12.50

3/1 Turn Of Luck, 100/30 Global Wonder, 9/2 Narjes,
11/2 Pivotal Flame, 10/1 Freebe Rocks, 12/1 New Street,
12/1 Viento De Condor, 16/1 Natch, 20/1 Middlescence,
25/1 Shanakill Star.

10f Handicap

PIVOTAL FLAME looks unsafe
He has quite an unusual profile
Just 3 days ago he ran over 1m 5f
This is a 3 furlong drop in distance
MIDDLESCENCE also does this

This statistic suggests a problem

10f Handicaps
Since 2002
Any time of year
Any Class of race

Horses from 1m 5f or more
Running within 1-2-3-4-5 days
Aged 4 or older
Have a 0-54 record since 2002
No horse has won with this profile
PIVOTAL FLAME has this0-54 problem
MIDDLESCENCE also fails this angle

VIENTO DE CONDOR has 3 runs
January has 161 of these races
Horses aged 4 with under 4 runs
Have a 0-36 record in them
He looks too unsafe
SHANAKILL STAR has 3 runs
As a mare with a long absence she is weak
NATCH isn't running well enough

Horses from 7f races
Running within 30 days
Return a 0-66 record in these races
FREEBE ROCKS shares this 0-66 profile
NEW STREET would not be first choice
He is easily the oldest horse in the race
Others have far better numbers
I would shortlist 3 horses

Shortlist

GLOBAL WONDER
NARJES
TURN OF LUCK

NARJES won last time
Older mare on a career high mark
TURN OF LUCK is down from 12f
Harder to read as a lightly raced 4yo
But has more potential than most
GLOBAL WONDER has the best chance
Would win this is repeating his last run
But not an easy trainer to rely upon

Selection

£7 Win Bet TURN OF LUCK 11/4

£3 Win Bet GLOBAL WONDER 5/2-11/4

 

 

Haydock 12.55

11/4 Bahama Moon, 7/2 Night Of Glory, 5/1 Suggestion,
11/2 Ain't My Fault, 7/1 Georgian Firebird, 10/1 Contre Tous,
10/1 The Character, 16/1 Canny Style, 33/1 Lostock Hall.

2m Handicap Hurdle

Plenty of these have a lot to prove

January has 157 similar 2m handicaps
Horses coming from a Chase
Have a poor 1-92 record in them
Those doing this aged under 11 are 0-80
CONTRE TOUS fails this 0-80 statistic

THE CHARACTER has 35 career starts
With just 1 run since April 2017
He may need more runs for fitness

NIGHT OF GLORY has topweight
Thats combined with 98 days absence
Only 3 previous hurdle runs
And first run for a new stable as well
I wasn't blown away with that profile

January Handicap Hurdles
Any Distance
Class 2-3-4-5-6
Horses aged 5
Absent over 59 days
Under 5 career hurdle runs
Have a 0-38 record in these races
NIGHT OF GLORY shares this 0-38 profile

AIN'T MY FAULT has 3 career starts
Not many for a 6yo sharing topweight
He is going to be a future chaser
He gives weight to more proven types

BAHAMA MOON can't be ruled out
But it means relying on Jonjo O'Neill

GEORGIAN FIREBIRD is a 9yo mare
Only 2 older mares have won
Both high weighted class horses
GEORGIAN FIREBIRD is bottomweight
Lacks quality and average numbers
Stable last winner was in May 2017

CANNY STYLE is a cheap mare
Who has just downgraded stables

Difficult to know which method to use
If you look at Racing Post Ratings
In particular last time out numbers
They show one horse well clear

Last time out
Racing Post Ratings
Running this season

116 Suggestion
106 Bahama Moon
103 The Character
102 Ain't My Fault
98 Canny Style
96 Georgian Firebird
93 Contre Tous

SUGGESTION comes out well
His last 2 numbers are 116 116
Suggests he can win off a mark of 113
His defeat last time at 11/10
Was the same figure as his previous win
The frame of the race isn't bad
Can't know all the nooks and crannies
Or what may be needed to win this race
But he looks the sensible bet in the race

LOCKSTOCK HALL is thrown in
Recently had 767 days off the track
Has had 2 comeback runs
Entitled to have needed both
Whilst hammered 96 lengths last time
No chance he stayed 2m 4f that day
Down to 2m if he is nearing fitness
He could be interesting around 16/1
Felt he may just want another run
But he could be worth a saver bet
I will leave that up to you

Selection

SUGGESTION 5/1

Each Way

 

 

Navan 1.00

6/4 Face The Facts, 9/2 Diol Ker, 8/1 Discordantly,
14/1 Hit The Tar, 14/1 Moratorium, 14/1 Emily Moon,
16/1 Cray, Where Eagles Dare, 20/1 Young Dev,
25/1 Dark Decade, Dawson's Cottage, Seeyouinvinnys,
33/1 Darver Star, Outside The Ring, Take A Turn,
50/1 Cloughmoylepatriot, 66/1 Keep Standing, Misshamrock,
66/1 Port Sunshine, Rio De Cerisy, 66/1 Scaramucci,
100/1 Manomine, Our Big Red, Tormund, 150/1 Sophie's Best,
200/1 Fianchetto, 200/1 Geoffrey's Girl,
500/1 Larry Tully, Tomasbar, Willwams.

2m 4f Maiden Hurdle

FACE THE FACTS is a 5yo
He was smart on the flat
Won a listed race got to a rating of 104
Certainly has enough raw ability to win
Whether we want his type though
Open to question over 2m 4f at Navan

I looked at similar 5 year olds
They win plenty in 2m maiden hurdles
This is further and this interested me

January and February
Maiden Hurdles
2m 3f and further
Horses aged 5
Previous Flat form
Returned a modest 3-107 record

If we break that 3-107 return down
Those running with 48 days are 0-68
FACE THE FACTS shares this profile
Those with 1 hurdle run are 0-33
FACE THE FACTS also shares this

Realistically he will be better
Than many of the losing 5yo's like him
So no surprise if he does win this
But at at short price with this profile
May be best to oppose him each way

DIOL KER was unlucky last time
There are many similar types to him
That can not be ruled out in this race
Such as Moratorium from the same owner
But DIOL KER looked the percentage bet

I wanted to go each way
But the price has now shortened
So playing the race this way

Selection

£8.50 Win Bet DIOL KER 11/4

£1.50 Win Bet DISCORDANTLY 7/1

 

Ascot 2.25

5/2 Thosedaysaregone, 9/2 Ballymoy, Seddon,
7/1 Better Getalong, 8/1 Colonial Dreams, 10/1 New Quay,
14/1 Boite, Djingle, 16/1 Kelpies Myth, 20/1 Man Of Plenty.

Handicap Hurdle over 2m 3f
Graded race with 8 past renewals
Far from an easy race to navigate
We have 4 outsiders hard to like
MAN OF PLENTY is older than ideal
DJINGLE is not safe enough
Not from a Chase with 1 run this year
KELPIES MYTH is sired by Dandy Man
This sire has yet to breed a hurdle
In a Class 3 or higher grade before
BOITE has a small chance no more

Looking at the stronger fancied horses
SEDDON only has 3 previous hurdle runs
He has far fewer than any other horse
Past winners of this race
Had the following hurdle runs
6 8 7 6 16 12 32 20 17 9
They all had at least 6 hurdle runs
SEDDON is not a match to any of them

NEW QUAY has a testing absence
THOSEDAYSAREGONE won last week
That was a lower grade of race
That 7 day absence could help him
It could also hurt his chance as well

COLONIAL DREAMS could go well
Has to be respected from a big stable
But his numbers suggest not thrown in
And he's raced just once since May 2018

BETTER GETALONG has a similar issue
He has raced just once since April 2018
I'd rather have more runs this season

December January February
Graded Handicap Hurdles
Any Distance in these 3 months
Horses aged 7 or more
Having 1 run that season
Return a a modest 2-37 record
Those with 5 or more hurdle runs
Have a 0-29 record in these 3 months
BETTER GETALONG fails this statistic
COLONIAL DREAMS fails this statistic
They only just fails it but they both do

BALLYMOY does have 3 recent races
He may be able to defy topweight here
Less doubts about him than most

Selection

Small Stakes

BALLYMOY 4/1

Each Way

 

 

Haydock 3.15

Peter Marsh Chase

5/1 Daklondike, Robinsfirth, 8/1 Ballyarthur,
9/1 Ballydine, 9/1 Captain Redbeard, 10/1 Otago Trail,
10/1 Red Infantry, 12/1 One For Arthur, 12/1 Wakanda,
14/1 Three Musketeers, 33/1 Chase The Spud.

Peter Marsh Chase
Grade 2 Handicap over 3m 1f

Valtor pulled out on Friday
Leaves 11 runners this year

Past winners
Had the following chase starts
6 10 21 8 3 12 26 14 10 31 3 10 8 13 22 15 14 28

Number of Chase runs

25 Wakanda
17 Chase The Spud
12 Otago Trail
10 Ballyarthur
15 Captain Redbeard
10 Three Musketeers
12 One For Arthur
8 Daklondike
8 Red Infantry
6 Robinsfirth
5 Ballydine

Past winners runs this season
No winner had just 1 run that season
They had 3 2 4 2 3 3 4 3 4 5 3 2 2 2 runs
Been a long time since a horse won this
Having raced just once this season

ONE FOR ARTHUR has this problem
He fell at the 3rd fence on his comeback
For a horse aiming for the National
I would have to question his fitness
CHASE THE SPUD has the same problem
He is 11 years old with just 1 prep run
And he was hammered 86 lengths in that
No wins off his current handicap rating
He looks unsafe and hard to commit to
ROBINSFIRTH is a seasonal debutant
He has not raced now in 400 days
Past winners had the following absences
28 56 35 36 35 26 28 22 21 16 27 14 28 23 42
The longest absent winner was 56 days
ROBINSFIRTH has plenty to prove here
Big horse could also be hard to get fit

DAKLONDIKE is 7 years old
He is 2 years younger than his rivals
There are no 8 year olds this year
History suggests that is no advantage

The last winner of this aged 7
Was way back in 1996
All 23 that tried since failed
Since Little Owl back in 1981
There were just 2 winners aged 7
Both in 1995 + 1996 had 4 runs that year
DAKLONDIKE only has 2 runs
That is the weakest age group

OTAGO TRAIL has 2 runs this year
His previous race was a heavy defeat
Perhaps he was on the bounce that day
Lap of the gods predicting his running
But a high weight and poor last run
There are safer choices than him
He has been very well backed

CAPTAIN RED was 2nd in this last year
He came into that race after a victory
This year he was hammered last time
Another who has to bounce back from a flop

Best recent profile

Horses aged 8 or more
Under 13 Chase runs
At least 2 runs this season
Under 10st 8lbs weight

Horses with the above profile
Have a promising 6-24 record
Winning this race in these years
2004 2005 2007 2014 2015 2018

4 horses have this profile

BALLYARTHUR
BALLYDINE
RED INFANTRY
THREE MUSKETEERS

THREE MUSKETEERS is up from 2m 4f
None of his rivals manage that
Only a past winner managed that
Poor last run and he is less convincing

RED INFANTRY passes my main angles
One problem could be his previous run
He drops down from 3m 5f to 3 miles
The last 16 renewals run since 1997
Horses down from 3m 3f or more are 0-32
RED INFANTRY fails that 0-32 statistic

BALLYARTHUR has a chance
But all his best numbers are on soft/heavy

Shortlist

BALLYDINE is the least experienced
Passes my main angles but on this track
The least experienced isn't always ideal
And he is out of the handicap here

WAKANDA is very shortlistable
He has good and bad points
He has 25 Chase runs
The most exposed chase in the race
These types can and do win this
But 5 of the last 6 had under 13 chases
He comes from the best trial race
He comes from The Rowland Meyrick
Best trial race providing 5 past winners
I made him a negative in that race
Stepping up a mile with topweight
And when having just 1 run that season
His last run should be upgraded

Selection

WAKANDA 8/1

Each Way

 

Navan 3.20

11/4 Fergiethelegend, 7/2 Cap'n, 9/2 Doldido,
13/2 Nellie Pledge, 8/1 Milanesque, 12/1 Coolnagorna Giggs,
12/1 Dawn Light Cave, 14/1 Duke Cass, 16/1 Big Robin.

3m Handicap Chase

Poor quality staying chase
Horses rated between 102 and 83

DOLIDO may be the classiest horse
But he is one of 3 failing this angle

January
Handicap Chases since 2003
Run over 3m or more
Horses from 2m Chases
Have a 0-53 record in them

DOLIDO shares this 0-53 statistic
BIG ROBIN shares this 0-53 statistic
NELLIE PLEDGE shares this 0-53 statistic

None have won in January
Stepping up from 2m chases to 3m
Interesting the above 3 horses
Are also the topweights in the race
None of these look safe enough
DOLIDO is up a mile with a short absence
NELLIE PLEDGE is a mare up a mile
Going down the weights for the pick

This race is so bad
You could not oppose any with confidence
DUKE CASS isn't running well enough

We have 2 horses aged 13

COOLNAGORNA GIGGS
FERGIETHELEGEND

I'd rather not side with a 13 year old
This is quite an interesting angle

January
All non graded Handicap Chases
3 miles are more
Horses aged 13 or more
Absent more than 16 days
Have a worrying 0-114 record
COOLNAGORNA GIGGS has this profile

FERGIETHELEGEND fails this as well
He has also hammered in this last year
DAWN LIGHT CAVE is a 7yo mare
Low numbers and lacks positives

Shortlist

CAP'N won his only chase
He was lucky to win a 3 horse race
And he has since been hurdling
Upgraded stables so looks a positive

MILANESQUE is 10 with 15 chase runs
Don't see any problem with his profile
He has 3 warm up races this season

I watched him at Fairyhouse last time
He ran ok with a couple of mistakes
He ran in snatches once or twice
But when you think about it more
He did remarkably well to finish 5th
He was out of the handicap that day
The worse horse in that race rated 95
His rivals all rated between 105-127

MILANESQUE is back down in class
Every horse he faced last time out
Was rated higher than all todays rivals
He was only beaten 10 lengths in 5th

I'd have liked a stronger stable
None of these can be relied on
But we are getting a very fair price
We have plenty of weaker profiles
Like the couple of 13 year olds
The 3 horses stepping up a mile
So win lose or draw he looks best

Selection

MILANESQUE 13/2

Each Way

***************************************************
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Best Wishes

Guy Ward

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