Mathematician 2263
Friday March 11th
1 Bet Today
0 Negative
10 Races Discussed
Astonishing message today
Lets hope it's astonishingly good not bad
I had 6 potential Bets today
I feel like a mum forced to choose between sextuplets
Decisions have been made
This message appears to be full of gems
All that glistens is not always gold
Today's Bet
Leicester 4.00
Split Stake
RIDDLESTOWN Evens
BEAUJOLAIS BOB 8/1-9/1
Half your stake on both horse to win
RIDDLESTOWN is here as a saver
We will break level if he wins and I feel he may
BEAUJOLAIS BOB is the other half of the bet
I think he has a chance as outsider of 3 horses
I am opposing the 2nd favourite of 3 runners
If I am right to do that then we can't lose
Staking £10 on the race it is £5 Win on both horses
All that Glistens is not Gold
Coming to the business end of one of the
most depressing weeks of the season but
things pick up today and the six meetings
give us plenty of choice which has thrown
up some fascinating angles to battle with.
It's imaginative, high tempo, dramatic and
packed full of some serious statistics. It is
too long and I just hope I don't regret that.
Ayr 2.00 - Long odds on favourite fails 0-45 stat
Limerick 2.05 - Second Fav fails a 0-191 stat
Leicester 4.00 - Second Fav fails a 0-134 stat
Limerick 4.55 - Odds on Fav fails a 0-39 stat
Dundalk 6.05 - Odds on Fav fails a 0-21 stat
Dundalk 7.05 - Second Fav fails a 1-204 stat
Dundalk 7.35 - Warm Fav fails a 0-47 stat
There is also a 0-109 statistic I haven't included
in that list and my best negative may also run in
another race I haven't included. That should be
enough to get the mouths watering but I do say:
All that Glistens is not Gold.
T o d a y s M e s s a g e
So many tempting bets today
I have got too many options
I did think about recommending any of these bets
Ayr 2.00 - Craiganboy 9/2 Each Way 1/4 odds 1,2
Limerick 2.05 - Oiche Mhaith Boy 5/4 Win Bet
Sandown 2.10
£4 Each Way Smart Catch 4/1
£1 Win Bet Kastani Beach 7/1
£1 Win Bet Tresor De Bontee 10/1
Limerick 4.55 - Twiss´s Hill 5/2 Win Bet
Dundalk 8.35
£6 Win Reckless Lad 4/1
£4 Win Hat Alnasar 7/4
Some of the evening previews are dodgy
Best described as Minimum Stakes at best
Tread carefully among some of these races
I have to make an impossible choice
As to which bet to stake as my best
And I have gone with this bet
Leicester 4.00
Split Stake
RIDDLESTOWN Evens
BEAUJOLAIS BOB 8/1-9/1
Half your stake on both horse to win
N e g a t i v e s
I can't even relax enough to think
about a negative today given how
many short priced horses I oppose.
No Negative Today
Results of Negatives
22 correct bets from 29
Cheltenham Next Week
Messages Today
Normal Messages Saturday
Short Message Sunday
No Message Monday
Cheltenham starts Tuesday
Just want to reiterate that I am not planning
long endless previews this year. I'm going to
keep it short in most races. Prioritise relevant
things and cut down on all unnecessary waffle.
I am partly forced into this situation
Because no 48 hr decs this year
That will be my biggest problem next week
The reality is most races are a guessing game.
You have the best chance of guessing
If you can rule as many horses out as possible
That will be the role of the tools I use
With the Generic Statistics I will play it day by day
Generic Statistic 7 is probably the riskiest
This statistic may be best used as a guide
It opposes Handicap Chases with 16 Chase runs
But one did win last year with 19 Chase starts
And the stat is based on just 4 years work
I will use it to split and separate some horses
It will certainly be a helpful guide
Just not sure it can finish the week unscathed
I won't be having most of my bets
In the big handicap chases as I normally would
I will be spreading them out a lot more
Using lots of savers and some novelty markets
T h u r s d a y s S u m m a r y
I only looked at one race yesterday and that
was the first at Southwell. We backed 3 here
and they finished 1st 3rd and last. We ended
up with a small profit with saver Swift Cedar
winning. You have to decided what issues to
prioritise in a race. Swift Cedar stood out on
my Numbers but he was ridden by the least
experienced rider. I decided the best policy
was to compromise and back him as a saver
and this prevented either a profit or a loss.
P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s
A y r 2.00
1/2 Minella Aris, 7/2 Craiganboy, 8/1 Nendrum
9/1 Shanroe Street, 50/1 Here Comes Love.
This is a 2m 5f maiden hurdle
MINELLA ARIS was trained by Aidan O'Brien
Must have had problems as he never raced
He was bought for 200k at the Sales
Clearly a nice prospect and probably will win
But can we really trust this horse ?
Only 1 hurdle run.
Only 1 career race and an absence
I don't like asking horses to overcome absences
When lightly raced and on very soft ground
And Tom George has never inspired me
Maiden Hurdles in March
Run over 2m 2f or more
1 Hurdle run before
Absent over 8 weeks
Horses with this profile are 3-110
Those that had under 3 career starts were 0-45
MINELLA ARIS fails this statistic.
Now some have won in February and April
Some have won Novice Hurdles as well
But Maiden hurdles in March then none have won
MINELLA ARIS therefore looks far too short at 2/5
NENDRUM was beaten 45 lengths just 3 days ago
I can't bet him on the outsider HERE COMES LOVE
SHANROE STREET is not certain to stay
I want to go with CRAIGANBOY each way
His profile is Neutral
He may not have the raw ability of the favourite
But he ran 11 days ago and has experience
He has a Racing Post Rating of 120 behind him
That probably does flatter him
But he looks the clear danger to the favourite
My angles suggest the favourite has vulnerabilities
So I think CRAIGANBOY is the each way bet
Selection
CRAIGANBOY 9/2
Each Way
L i m e r i c k 2.05
7/4 Oiche Mhaith Boy, 9/4 Tamisa
3/1 Hanover Street, 10/1 Give Battle
14/1 Little Stevie, 16/1 Queen Oscar
20/1 Noble Vision.
This is a 4yo maiden hurdle
Only 20 similar races in March
There is an interesting statistic here
February March April May June July August
All 4yo Non Handicap Hurdle races
Any Distance during these 7 months
4 year old fillies
Absent more than 75 days
There is a 0-191 record with these horses
TAMISA fails this 0-191 statistic
She is a 4yo filly absent 111 days
She has to be opposed according to this stat
His sire has yet to breed a National Hunt winner yet
If you look at TAMISA's sire (Thewayyouare)
His lifetime runners over any code
That raced on Good to soft or worse
Have a 1-51 record which is another point against him
HANOVER STREET ran once for Aidan O'Brien on the flat
He moved after 1 race to a small stable
That worries me
So does his inexperience
GIVE BATTLE has not shown much at all
His 2 hurdle runs were heavy defeats
His Jockey has a 0-38 career record
OICHE MHAITH BOY
Stand out choice
On my above angles I should be very confident
My only doubt about him is legitimate
There is definitely a stamina doubt
He wasn't proven beyond a mile on the flat
If he stays he wins in my view
Selection
OICHE MHAITH BOY 11/8
Win Bet
S a n d o w n 2.10
7/2 Smart Catch, 7/2 Un Prophete
9/2 Loves Destination, 13/2 Kastani Beach
9/1 Just When, 9/1 Newton Geronimo
10/1 Tresor De Bontee, 10/1 West Of The Edge
16/1 Expanding Universe.
This is a 2m handicap hurdle
It's an race For Military Amateur Riders
SMART CATCH had this race in the bag last year
He blew it at the last 2 hurdles though
He has a weaker jockey with a 0-16 record
But most that he rode that were fancied placed
My angles show certain types are weak
For example since 2001 horses aged 5 are 0-19
Past winners had the following career starts
23 22 17 19 21 26 19 26 25
Past winners had the following hurdle starts
12 14 16 8 8 21 10 16 23
That is why I don't want a lightly raced 5yo
LOVES DESTINATION is a 5yo mare
Her age worries me and her jockey is 0-25
UN PROPHETE is only a 5 year old
I'm taking the view 4 hurdle runs is not enough
EXPANDING UNIVERSE isn't running well enough
WEST OF THE EDGE drops down from 3m1f to 2m
That was only 11 days ago and he was thrashed in that
I can't have him with an unsafe profile like that
If you look at the past 16 renewals of this race
All 16 winners ran within 53 days
JUST WHEN has the longest absence of 101 days
His rider has a prosthetic leg and is yet to ride a winner
I have to oppose him
NEWTON GERONIMO refused to race last time
That makes him risky and he is too inexperienced
Shortlist
TRESOR DE BONTEE- Not sure about him
Hard to like especially on recent runs
But he is 16/1 and one small possible excuse
His sire's record suggests this is his best trip
KASTANI BEACH has ran in this race 3 times
He has a WON 2ND 2ND record in the race
My main worry is 74 days absence
All 16 past winners ran within 53 days
SMART CATCH has to be included
He comes from a significant trial race 3 weeks ago
There is a race at Sandown 3 weeks ago
In the last 16 years only 7 horses came from that race
Remarkably they finished W W W W W 4 7
The horses that were 4th and 7th ran last year
The 2002 2003 2004 2006 2013 winners prepped there
I will give SMART CATCH the chance to redeem himself
Selection
£4 Each Way SMART CATCH 4/1
£1 Win Bet KASTANI BEACH 7/1
£1 WIn Bet TRESOR DE BONTEE 10/1
L e i c e s t e r 4.00
Evs Riddlestown 11/10 Tachbury, 10/1 Beaujolais Bob.
This is a 2m 4f Handicap Chase
3 runners rated 97 86 66
TACHBURY is a seasonal debutant
He is also aged 12 years old
Since 2005
February March April
Handicap Chases
Any distance
Any class of race
Horses aged 12 or more
Absent 5 or more months
There was a 3-170 record
That is a pretty miserable record
Those that ran in March were 0-59
Those with under 34 career starts were 0-115
Those in Handicap Chases under 3 miles were 0-81
Those with under 29 Chase starts were 0-134
TACHBURY fails all these statistics
That tells me 12yo seasonal debutants are weak
TACHBURY is therefore opposed
I don't like his trainers horses anyway
My plan here is to try and get TACHBURY beaten
But have a split stake on the other 2 runners
RIDDLESTOWN is the obvious one
He is the Class horse and the fittest horse
He only has 2 horses rated 86 and 66 to beat
RIDDLESTOWN will probably win this race
BEAUJOLAIS BOB can't be ruled out though
My Breeding stats say he didn't stay last time
His main claim to fame here
Is he gets 26lbs weight in the heavy ground
He hasn't shown much yet
But he has a seriously low handicap mark
Selection
Staked to £10
£5 Win Bet RIDDLESTOWN Evens
£5 Win Bet BEAUJOLAIS BOB 8/1
L i m e r i c k 4.55
8/11 Unic De Bersy, 11/4 Twiss´s Hill
7/1 Trade Marked, 10/1 Fairy Field.
This is a 3m Novice Handicap Hurdle
UNIC DE BERSY is the class horse
He is obviously very well treated
No surprise he is odds on
He does have 1 flaw to overcome
That is his stamina
His sire is the only one in the race
Yet to breed a 3m + winner over hurdles
His runners over 2m 7f and more are 1-30
Look at the sires National Hunt runners
That race on Good to Soft or softer
Those running over 2m 4f or more are 0-39
His soft ground hurdlers are 0-29
Now he seems to stay 3m over fences
But at the price these angles put me off him
TRADE MARKED didn't make much appeal
He is up from 2m to 3m
His sires 3m + hurdlers are 0-11 on softer than good
TWISS´S HILL is fit and ran well last time
She looks best placed to capitalise
Selection
TWISS´S HILL 5/2
Win Bet
D u n d a l k 6.05
11/10 Ruby Gates, 11/2 Set To Fire
6/1 Midnitemudcrabs, 7/1 Keytotheoperation
10/1 Dottie Lottie, 14/1 Try Again, 16/1 Cresendo
20/1 Bien Beau, 25/1 Modh Coinniolach
33/1 Theorem, 50/1 Phebes Dream.
This is a 3yo maiden over 7f
RUBY GATES is a 4/5 favourite
My Rose Tinted Coolmore goggles need cleaning
Not sure what to do about her
I run her profile as a 3yo filly
Who comes from a mile race in the last 4 weeks
Horses with her profile were 0-21
That doesn't worry me too much
I didn't like much of the opposition
MIDNITEMUDCRABS left me cold
SET TO FIRE is a filly with an absence and 6 runs
She hasn't got out of 0-75 Nurseries yet
I think SET TO FIRE has a chance each way
But I didn't feel safe enough with her
KEYTOTHEOPERATION is an unraced 3rd favourite
I will take a small chance on CRESENDO
Jim Bolger seasonal debutant
Poor numbers. Could be here to get handicapped
But I failed him on both runs last season
If you look at his sire's runners at 7f or more
They score very badly without several runs
CRESENDO failed this breeding stat twice last year
Maybe he didn't get home in either race
I am not confident here
I will suggest a split stake bet
Half Stakes on Ruby Gates 4/5
Half Stakes each way on Cresendo 20/1 +
D u n d a l k 7.05
6/4 Russian Soul, 5/2 Yuften 7/2 Togoville
9/2 Al Mohalhal 50/1 Rattling Jewel.
This is a 6f conditions race
There are horses rated 100 100 110 97
Although the race conditions don't make it clear
I have to assume this is at least a Class 2 race
If I see the race as a Class 2 race
Then I should avoid RUSSIAN SOUL
6f races
Class 2 or higher
Any kind of race
Any time of year
If you look at horses aged 8 or more
Who come from a 5f race
And who run in the last 4 weeks
There is a horrible 1-204 record
The only winner was Blackheath in 2004
RUSSIAN SOUL fails this 1-204 statistic
There is a big "but" though
Most Class 2 races have bigger fields
There are very few run with such a small field
That have horses like RUSSIAN SOUL
The small field clearly weakens this 1-204 stat
But I am opposing RUSSIAN SOUL because of it
There are 17 similar races in March
Horses aged 7 or more were 0-50 in them
RUSSIAN SOUL also fails this age statistic
AL MOHALHAL is only a 3 yera old
Only 1 of the 17 winners were aged 3
I am not convinced he is a safe type to bet
I would rather have an older horse with recent runs
YUFTEN is a 5yo seasonal debutant
Highest rated and the Classiest horse here
But he has downgraded stables over the winter
He has also never raced over shorter than 7f
That worries me the most
I think he is bred to want further
His 4 siblings were all middle distance horses
If you look at his Dam's siblings
Almost all of these were middle distance types
I can not bet him at 6f on his debut
TOGOVILLE has the least to prove for me
He has at least had a recent run
Racing Post Rating of 105 is respectable
I think he is the safest choice in a tactical race
Selection
TOGOVILLE 11/4
Win Bet
D u n d a l k 7.35
11/8 Mulligatawny, 9/4 Whiskey Zulu
5/1 First Class Ticket, 8/1 The Wave Rock
10/1 Zilbiyr, 16/1 Adelena, 20/1 Bumper Crop
33/1 Prairie Wind, 50/1 Adateformary, 50/1 Brief Angel
50/1 Crash Bang Wallop, 66/1 Queen Alpha
100/1 Digger Dandy.
This is a 3yo maiden over a mile
MULLIGATAWNY shows a lot of promise
Good entries he could easily be good enough
The Draw in stall 1 worries me
Since 2015
Dundalk races over a mile
With 8 or more runners
If you look at horses drawn 1
There is a modest 2-78 record
Those with under 5 runs were 0-29
Those drawn 1 or 2 with under 5 runs were 0-47
MULLIGATAWNY may find this draw a problem
WHISKEY ZULU is a possible burglary bet
You could consider him each way at 5/2
I decided that was not safe enough
ZILBIYR - Numbers are not impressive
I also feel Stall 13 is not a good draw either
FIRST CLASS TICKET each way is another option
I will go with him as a compromise bet
But this is not a preview I have confidence in
Minimum Stakes would be a bit over confident
C h e l m s f o r d 7.45
5/4 Cee Jay, 7/4 Dominance, 6/1 Corridor Kid
10/1 Justice Rock, 10/1 Storming Ambition
66/1 Island Express, 66/1 Justice.
5f all aged maiden race
Had a dig around here
I can feel my statistics advising me
They are saying come on its late. Leave this alone
My Breeding stats are saying the same
First impression was about the market leaders
I felt CEE JAY should beat Dominance
My statistics tell me that is not a safe assumption
They are telling me leave this race alone
My Breeding stats tell me I am mad to bet either
Both have aspects about them I don't like
CORRIDOR KID had a neutral profile
I can not bet him from Derek Shaws stable
This trainer has a miserable record
When horses he trains have had absences
His horses absent 5+ months
When having under 8 career starts are 0-109
The numbers say CEE JAY
My Breeding stats say DOMINATION
I wasn't convinced about either
I asked them to consider JUSTICE ROCK
They don't rule him out
JUSTICE ROCK may just be a bit of value
Not quite sure he has the class
But he ran well just 2 days ago
Only 7 runners spoils a sneaky each way bet
But if she is a double figure price tonight
I'd rather nibble here to a small stake than others
JUSTICE ROCK is a weak value based selection
Selection
JUSTICE ROCK 12/1
Small Win Bet
D u n d a l k 8.35
13/8 Hat Alnasar, 2/1 Split The Atom
9/2 Reckless Lad, 6/1 Aussie Valentine,
12/1 Multiculture.
This is a 0-92 handicap over a Mile
I can not have SPLIT THE ATOM
He comes from a 5f race
He moves up 3 furlongs in distance
His 5f race was only 7 days ago
I hate his profile
I am far from convinced he will stay a mile
SPLIT THE ATOM has to be opposed
The race has 2 seasonal debutants
That makes it quite messy
AUSSIE VALENTINE - Not first choice first time out
MULTICULTURE - Not first choice first time out
Shortlist
HAT ALNASAR 7/4
RECKLESS LAD 4/1
Both go up in trip
Neither are perfect or either to split
I am playing it this way
£6 Win RECKLESS LAD 4/1
£4 Win HAT ALNASAR 7/4
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Best Wishes
Guy Ward
www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk