A copy of our horse racing analysis for Sat May 14th 2016.
Bit's in RED I added in later
Mathematician 2317
Saturday May 14th
1 Bet today
0 Negative
9 Previews
Newbury is the spine of today's message
My stronger bets are elsewhere though
Feels a sensible and competent message
There will be a Sunday message tomorrow
Not sure what form it will take just yet.
I will be covering the 2 French Group 1's
Balayer vers le haut vos français
Today's Bet
Split Stake Bet
Staked to £10 for Guidance
Punchestown 3.10 - BYE BYE O BYE 4/1 WON
Bangor 3.40 - HINDON ROAD 9/4 WON
£3 Win Bet on Each Horse
£2 Each Way Double on Both
I fancy these two horses the most
Don't take under the odds for these
They should both be available at the price later
Bye Bye O Bye is in a massive field
Hindon Road has no hiding places
He offers an easier option for less reward
So I am going to spread the risk today
And combine both horses in a split stake bet
We will be fine if either horse wins
We have not done this for a long time
I didn't really know what to do here
Bye Bye O Bye is a more confident selection
He is my best bet today
But the field size has forced a split stake bet
Not entirely satisfactory but how it's worked out
T o d a y s M e s s a g e
I should start by mentioning that a few weeks
ago I mentioned some obscure Rugby bet on
Saracens which was given to us my somebody
who knows more than I do about it. They play
in the Final today so it will be nice if they win.
I texted him this morning and he replied only
by saying to expect a 7pts win from Saracens.
The game is Live on Sky Sports 2 at 3.45pm.
4 Newbury Previews
No more than average strength interest bets
I am highlighting 4 races today
Thirsk 1.45
KODI DA CAPO 3/1
Each Way
On paper seems a very logical bet
It is a bit of a dirty bet I don't want to stake
The course have irrigated the track
They have moved the stalls on the quiet
Because of that I see this as a non staked bet
But it does feel like a very logical bet
Punchestown 2.35
INCITATUM 11/8
Win Bet
I don't see any sensible alternatives
But too short a price to stake as a bet
I need more to do that in a biggish field
But the clear choice to win a soft race
Punchestown 3.10
BYE BYE O BYE 4/1
Each Way
1/4 the Odds 1-2-3-4
This is a Heart v Head dilemma
I fancy him very very strongly
This could be like a hot knife through butter
But common sense has to be a factor
This is a 25 runner Handicap Hurdle over 3m
We should not really be going anywhere near it
A Hold up horse in a monstrous field
If he runs his race and has a clear run
He should win and won't be out of the 1-2-3-4
The only horse I fear is Clontarf
But the field size is very intimidating
Bangor 3.40
HINDON ROAD 9/4
Win Bet
I like this Handicap Chaser
Probably a bit shorter than I'd like
But conditions should be right up his street
This should be a career best over fences
Has to be one of my better bets today
Daily Negatives
0 Negative Today
Results of Negatives
24 correct bets from 32
F r i d a y s R e v i e w
I strongly steered you towards two races in the
Friday message. We got the first one just right
but the 2nd one very wrong. HARD TO CALL
was a losing Bet. Not quite sure why he drifted
earlier but was then heavily backed into a very
short price before the race. He was going quite
well but them emptied for some reason. It was
a bitter disappointment as he was trading long
odds on for much of that race. We got the first
race right with the 1st and 2nd and there was
an extra bonus of our Negative getting beaten.
It was a message that needed both main races
to deliver and as that didn't happen it must go
down as a poor effort and quite an anticlimax.
P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s
T h i r s k 1.45
4/1 Kodi Da Capo, 5/1 Kocollada, 11/2 Lady Cristal
11/2 Queen Celeste, 6/1 Indigo Beat, 8/1 Cosmic Sky
8/1 Norwegian Highness, 12/1 Conistone, 12/1 Frozen Kiss
5f Maiden for fillies
KODI DA CAPO has 2 runs
NORWEGIAN HIGHNESS has 1 run
The Rest are unraced
The Racing Post say
"Kodi Da Capo sets just an ordinary standard but
her experience should see her go well for a long way"
I pretty much agree with that
My thinking here on a track that favours experience
Is should we bet KODI DA CAPO each way at 3/1
I think there is a case for that
KOCOLLADA is unraced
She is an April 30th Fial
All past winners were foaled on April 6th or earlier
10 of the last 11 winners were foaled in March or earlier
One problem here is the draw
Normally I would oppose Stall 1
In fields of 6 or more
Unraced horses drawn 1 are 0-40 since 1997
QUEEN CELESTE has this problem
But is it a problem now ?
The track has been realigned
The Stalls have been moved
They have made no effort to tell anyone this
That could mess the draw bias up
So I can not use the draw stats against her
That is another seed of doubt about the race
It could mean QUEEN CELESTE is drawn well
It could mean KOCOLLADA is drawn badly
But I still retain my original view
That KODI DA CAPO each way at 3/1
Looks a sensible bet
If I look at her profile down from 6f
It is pretty much a neutral/positive
Last week at Ascot a similar horse won
That was Carmagie who had the same profile
That tells me we should be fine statistically
NORWEGIAN HIGHNESS has had a run
But it was a very low Racing Post Rating that day
And she is a young May foal
KODI DA CAPO is older and has an extra run
Half the field will be unfancied outsiders
Something may end up too strong
And beat KODI DA CAPO
But with 2 runs and an advantage in fitness
I am sceptical that 3 can beat here
So I feel this is the natural bet in the race
Selection
KODI DA CAPO 3/1
Each Way
Punchestown 2.00
This 2m maiden hurdle has a massive field
Falls into the much too difficult box
Any selection would be a guess
But I would consider a match bet here
I want to oppose Secrets Safe
I don't want a Flat bred sired by Arcano
Low rated flat form
A Sire who has never bred a hurdles winner
The only sire in a massive field who hasn't
I would probably take any horse to beat her
But far too big to lay so it must be a match bet
Oppose Secrets Safe in any match bet
P u n c h e s t o w n 2.35
13/8 Incitatum, 9/4 Crosshue Boy, 6/1 The Jazz Singer
7/1 High Nellie, 9/1 Laces Out, 16/1 Legal Lord, 16/1 Maizy
33/1 Miss Mary D, 50/1 Berry, 50/1 Ekbaal
50/1 Sunnybrook Rambler, 100/1 Loch Luatha
100/1 St Edmunds, 100/1 Supreme Star
100/1 The Ballyboys.
This is a 3m Maiden Hurdle
May has 37 similar races
Horses from Bumpers have a 1-60 record
LEGAL LORD has this problem and is rejected
MAIZY has this problem and is rejected
CROSSHUE BOY also comes from a Bumper
He has a strange profile running 5 days ago
If he has been trained for a Bumper
It is very quick to suddenly jump 3m of hurdles
Novice and Maiden Hurdles over 17f or more
Any Time of Year
Horses from Bumpers
Running in the last 6 days
I find a 0-44 record with these horses
That suggests it may be a problem
He certainly doesn't offer enough to select him
Unraced horses aged 6 or more are 0-36
LACES OUT fails that as an unraced 7yo
THE JAZZ SINGER is sired by Tobougg
His hurdlers over 2m 7f or more are 2-100
Those with under 10 hurdle runs are 0-55
His Breeding profile worries me
HIGH NELLIE was beaten 26 lengths just 6 days ago
That has to be a serious concern
Especially as a Mare who has very average numbers
I think INCITATUM may be the one
Racing Post Hurdle Ratings of 106 106 85 112 115
None of his rivals have bettered a rating of 104 before
Selection
INCITATUM 11/8
Win Bet
N e w b u r y 2.45
4/7 Eagle Top, 11/2 Ayrad
7/1 Astronereus, 8/1 Star Storm
9/1 Carnachy
Group race over 12f run on softer ground
I can not commit to EAGLE TOP here
I have always harbored a doubt about 12f
I know he won at Royal Ascot over 12f
But the leaders went off too fast in that race
He was the beneficiary of a falsely run race
Besides this is a prep race
He has 223 days absence
It is softer than Good
And if you look at his sire Pivotal
He has had just 2 pattern winners over 12f +
One had a recent race and the other was in a fillies race
None like EAGLE TOP has managed it
When also facing an absence
Small field of course undermines breeding stats
But I am passing on him
No strong convictions in the race
Split Stake Bet to Minimum Stakes
£3 Win AYRAD around 7/1
£7 Win CARNACHY around 4/1
P u n c h e s t o w n 3.10
4/1 Bye Bye O Bye, 9/1 Massinis Adventure
10/1 Hogan´s Alley, 10/1 Vote Of Confidence
12/1 Mia´s Anthem, 12/1 Quelle Belle Vie,
12/1 Returntovendor, 14/1 Jo Go, 14/1 Skellig Rocks
16/1 Clontarf, 16/1 Cloudy Morning, 16/1 Germany John
16/1 Princess Lir, 20/1 Sarah Battle, 20/1 Siberian Vixen
25/1 Authorized Cadeaux, 25/1 Chestnut Charlie
25/1 Cool Oscar, 25/1 Dom Lukka, 25/1 Humm Dinger
25/1 Maccas Lad, 25/1 Padre Tito, 33/1 Wilde Breeze
50/1 Burnt Sienna, 50/1 Lake Shore Drive.
28 runner Handicap Hurdle over 3 miles
It must be one of the worst races to bet in
One of the worst decisions to preview it too
Despite that I really fancy BYE BYE O BYE
On April 25th I sent my message as normal
I had not done the Tramore race he won that day
But I was a bit bored in the afternoon
Noticed he had won recently and checked him out
I liked what I found and I backed him at 11/10
He absolutely bolted up at Tramore
He was ridden with so much confidence as well
I like the fact he moved stables recently
His previous trainer had never trained a hurdle winner
His New Stable have clearly sorted him out
He won a Point to Point
He then hacked up at Kilbeggan
He did the same at Tramore
He was favourite to land a hat trick at Ballinrobe
That day BYE BYE O BYE finished only second
It was very soft ground that day
This is a fast ground sire
He has a horrible record with his soft ground runners
That was a very creditable run
He led over the last
He Improved his Racing Post Rating 8lbs on his win
It was a career best on ground he hated
He is improving past and has a lot in hand still
Yes this is a hideously big field
And it does worry me he is a Hold Up horse
But he has won 16 and 15 runner races recently
And there will be so much dead wood in this race
Unless he gets badly impeded or has traffic problem
I will be surprised if 4 horses can beat him
If you look at his main market rivals
Massinis Adventure has 146 days absence
Hogan´s Alley has 77 days absence
Vote Of Confidence has 155 days absence
Princess Lir has 87 days absence
There are hardly many you can take seriously
The huge field has made our price bigger
It does feel like madness
And I would ot normally play in these races
But I really like his chance and with 4 places
Selection
BYE BYE O BYE 4/1
Each Way
N e w b u r y 3.20
2/1 Dream Dubai, 4/1 Remarkable, 6/1 Taneen
7/1 Log Out Island, 9/1 Dhahmaan, 9/1 King Of Rooks
10/1 Sunflower, 20/1 Twin Sails, 25/1 Dream Destination
50/1 Buying Trouble.
This is a 6f Listed race for 3 year olds
I can not remember ever doing this race before
12 Past renewals
11 of the winners raced within 31 days
Not a good race for seasonal debutants (1-26)
KING OF ROOKS is a seasonal debutant
If you look at his sire Acclamation
And his record in Listed /Group races
Those absent more than 75 days were 1-45
Only 1 won with an absence and that was on fast ground
DREAM DESTINATION is a seasonal debutant
SUNFLOWER is a seasonal debutant filly
Neither of these appeal
TANEEN is a seasonal debutant
He only has 2 career starts
All bar one of the winners had more runs
LOG OUT ISLAND is not like a winner
No horse was beaten so far over 7f last time
TWIN SAILS has exactly the same problem
REMARKABLE won a handicap last time
The only winners from handicaps had 4 + runs
REMARKABLE has just the 3 runs
Obviously deserves a lot of respect
But he has some catching up to do in the numbers
DREAM DUBAI has 2 runs
I would have preferred another run
And a better stable as well
But I can't rule him out
The winner of this always comes from 1 of 3 tracks
Newmarket Ascot or Newbury
The Best trial race is the Pavilion Stakes at Ascot
5 of the 12 winners came from that race
The 2013 2014 2015 winners did that
DREAM DUBAI was second in that race
DHAHMAAN was 4th in that race
Interesting DHAHMAAN was half the price that day
He could easily reverse the form today
The 2013 winner did exactly that
Zanetto beat the horse that beat him in the Pavilion
He didn't get a good start and may have needed the run
I do like DHAHMAAN here and his price
I do wish his stable were having more winners though
Selection
DHAHMAAN 7/1
Each Way
B a n g o r 3.40
7/2 Bobble Boru, 4/1 Hindon Road
5/1 Doitforthevillage, 5/1 Mondo Cane
7/1 Ockey De Neulliac, 7/1 See Double You
10/1 Heist, 14/1 Iona Days.
Handicap Chase over 2m 4f
3 of these have under 10 Chase starts
Doitforthevillage - Heist - Hindon Road
The others all have 10 or more Chase runs
HINDON ROAD interests me here
The Racing Post suggested in his last run
That he wanted a shorter trip than 2m 6f
And he wanted quicker ground than Soft
My Breeding Statistics agree with that
They confirm the suspicion I had when he last ran
That his stamina ran out at Newbury on the ground
This does look the right move for him
We have a lot of small stables here
HINDON ROAD is from a high class yard
Only had 3 Chase runs
These were his only 3 runs this season
He was entitled to need his first two runs
Entitled to have hated the ground on 2 occasions
This is a nice drop in Class
The drop in trip and drying ground will help too
I would rather have a lighter raced Chase
Several very lightly raced Chasers have won this
I like the issues behind this horse
I think we have the best trainer in the race
The Best Jockey as well
I think we are the biggest improver in the race
It is a bet that has to be based partly on assumptions
But I like him and feel he is one of the better bets today
Selection
HINDON ROAD 9/4
Win Bet
N e w b u r y 3.55
7/2 Toormore, 9/2 Kodi Bear, 11/2 Limato
7/1 Belardo, 8/1 Dutch Connection, 8/1 Mahsoob
12/1 Endless Drama, 12/1 Euro Charline, 14/1 Arod
14/1 Gm Hopkins, 25/1 Gabrial, 25/1 Johnny Barnes
150/1 Barchan.
I have never liked the Lockinge
Always too many 4yo seasonal debutants
I ran some Breeding stats
Looking for sires who bred winners over 8f or more
In Group races when it was softer than Good
DUTCH CONNECTION's sire has not achieved it
His sire returns a 0-12 record
ENDLESS DRAMA's sire returned a 0-16 record
I don't want him first time out
EURO CHARLINE also failed my Breeding stats
JOHNNY BARNES also failed my Breeding stats
GABRIAL also failed my Breeding stats
Horses sired by Kodiac
Running over 8f or more
Running on Good to soft or worse
Those that raced in Class 3 or higher were 1-34
That was when KODI BEAR won at Goodwood
Small field though. Tactical race. Recent run
Can we really be sure he will stay a mile on soft
In a Group 1 and with a long absence ?
Maybe but my breeding stats ask questions
AROD has an unacceptable draw
ENDLESS DRAMA has an unacceptable draw
MAHSOOB is drawn 13 of 13 which is a worry
I think that has to hurt his chance
MAHSOOB also comes from a Group 3 race
Horses doing that are 0-30 in this race
GM HOPKINS lacks backclass
Never run in a Group 2 never mind a Group 1
Horses from Listed races like him are 0-23
AROD also has that problem
BELARDO has a big chance
Horses beaten at Sandown often win this
He was given a bit too much to do last time
My two problems with him are these
He is not a big horse and it is softer ground
He has had 2 runs this year which is not the norm
LIMATO has a chance as a 4yo debutant
But none that have won came from 7f races
He's never raced on ground this soft before
TOORMORE was 2nd in last years race
That was first time out and from a horrible draw
I would rather rely on him each way
Not a very original selection
But this race and I have never loved each other
Selection
TOORMORE 4/1
Each Way
N e w b u r y 4.30
5/1 Imperial Aviator, 6/1 Good Run, 7/1 Spader
8/1 Vivre Pour Vivre, 9/1 Cartago, 10/1 Ebtihaal
10/1 Motdaw, 12/1 Prince Of Arran, 12/1 Soldier In Action
14/1 Both Sides, 14/1 Danehill Kodiac, 14/1 Gawdawpalin
16/1 Southdown Lad, 25/1 Shahbar, 25/1 Theydon Grey.
This is a 3yo handicap over 10f
It is a very tough race this year with 15 runners
But it takes a Group Class horse to win this
It is a very high class handicap
That's why lightly raced horses always win it
Anything with more than 6 runs has shown too much
Past winners had 3 2 6 5 3 3 4 3 4 3 career starts
Those with more than 6 runs were 0-18
I will be surprised if one of those wins this
The following horses are too exposed
THEYDON GREY - MOTDAW
SOLDIER IN ACTION has 7 runs more than ideal
CARTAGO fails this with 7 runs
No past winner came from Pattern races as he does
PRINCE OF ARRAN has 7 runs
That would worry me a bit
I ran some sire statistics
Sires who bred winners of 10f or more
When softer than Good and in Class 2 or higher
DANEHILL KODIAC's sire has not done this
IMPERIAL AVIATOR 's sire has not done this (0-4)
SOLDIER IN ACTION 's sire has not done this (0-4)
GOOD RUN's sire Iffraaj also has this problem
His runners over 10f in Class 2 on softer ground are 0-13
More about him later
GAWDAWPALIN - Not first choice from a Class 5 handicap
BOTH SIDES and SHAHBAR don't offer enough
EBTIHAAL comes from a mile race
Horses doing that with 1 run that season were 0-15
They were 0-29 with 1-2 runs that season as well
That puts me off EBTIHAAL
He also has 9st 7lbs which is a serious worry
Every winner since 2003 had no more than 9st 4lbs
It is a tough ask giving top class horses weight
GOOD RUN also has more weight than I'd like
SOUTHDOWN LAD wouldn't be my first choice
Shortlist
SPADER- Profile find but up in class
VIVRE POUR VIVRE has a safer profile
Selection
VIVRE POUR VIVRE 8/1
Each Way
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Best Wishes
Guy Ward
www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk
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