Mathematician 2231
Saturday June 13th
0 Account Bet
0 Selection
0 Profile & Preview bets
0 Negative
12 Races Discussed
It is not going to be a normal Saturday message
today. There are 9 meetings and heavy rain too
and it's pointless trying to tackle it all or attempt
a substantial message. It would be reckless and
I've gone for a far less intense style of preview.
It's very hard not to write the day off given how
intense it is and how much circumstances must
change with or without the rain. There are now
dozens of non runners already some because of
the rain and others as they are not getting any.
That said I do fancy a few today.
I'm far more interested in Sunday though as we
get a fair crack of the whip there. We are going
to have to plough through today first and do it
knowing this is a very dangerous day to bet.
P r o f i l e & P r e v i e w B e t
No Bet Today
Not going to be bullied or manipulated into a
bet today. I am going to target Sunday's cards
again when we are in better control of things.
I fancy 6 horses listed just below and feel we
should be having a few lower staked bets on
these horses assuming conditions allow this.
Today's Message
Everything said and done in the full knowledge
that today is a complete circus and not a day I
can or should be getting too heavily involved.
There are a few things that interested me a bit
Hexham 2.25 - VENUE 3/1 Each Way
Very interested to see if he can beat a serious
flat horse with no hurdling experience. I don't
want to go with a 3/1 each way shot today but
my stats say he's a better bet than the favourite.
LOST
Bath 2.40 - STROKE OF MIDNIGHT 6/4 Win Bet
My main interest is whether the 2nd favourite
will fail an unusual 1-122 statistic leaving this
race open to Stroke of Midnight the numbers
horse. Again not a race or price that tempts me.
2ND
Sandown 2.55 - PROFITABLE 7/2 Each Way
Tight margins but he looks to have a serious
each way chance and his numbers impressed.
2ND
Musselburgh 3.25 - RED BARON 9/2 Each Way
There could be pace and tactical issues but in
a wide open race my profiles boxed me into an
inescapable corner. The only horse I liked here.
WON
Sandown 3.30 - ROYAL BRAVE 5/1 Each Way
Tough race but he is a good match with every
one of the previous winners of this handicap.
WON
York 4.20 - CORREGGIO 12/1 Each Way
Could this be the strongest draw bias on any
track at the moment. I fancy 4 and chose him.
Open race but the draw bias is fascinating,
I am tempted by CORREGGIO 12/1 Each Way
You just don't know if rain will kill his chance
WON
My head says my best bet is this
Sandown 2.55
PROFITABLE 7/2
Each Way
2ND
.
D a i l y N e g a t i v e s
No Negative Today
Results of Negatives
12 correct bets from 14
F r i d a y s S u m m a r y
Two bets yesterday a winner and a loser. At least
the strong bet won. PANDORICA did the business
and when you look back at the race and see how
the 2nd most experienced hurdler came second
it shows how good those statistics were showing
how experience matters in these mares novices.
The second bet was a Win-Win-Each Way Double.
MILL SPRINGS did his bit finishing second and
I probably underestimated the odds on favourite
but I was happy he had a chance and he ran well.
SMART MOVER looked set to bolt up touching a
price of 1.19 in running but the front runners did
too much in front going off too fast. I've seen so
many races this week where the leaders take off
too fast and fade with empty tanks in the last few
yards. I think he was the best horse in that race.
I think that cost us the second bet. At least there
was a reasonable profit from the two selections.
P r o f i l e & P r e v i e w s
York 2.00
Tempted me for a best race of the day preview
Decided I couldn't decide about the 4 year olds
My stats show they are weak but one won last year
Heavy numerical presence as well
I don't fancy last years winner Pearl Castle
Surprised if he can win drawn 1
No Selection
B a t h 2.05
5/8 Balliol, 9/4 Zuzinia, 5/1 Vale Of Paris
8/1 Our Lord, 8/1 Quiet Beauty, 20/1 Margot Rose
20/1 Oh My Tinkerbell, 33/1 Racing Angel.
This is a 5f maiden
My 1st thought was to go with unraced BALLION
If you look at the opposition
Their racing post ratings are very modest
It would be disappointing if he couldn't match that
ZUZINIA has had 17 races already and lost them all
Her best Racing Post Rating is 71
Her best rating this year is 63
That is not a high standard to go to bat with
One statistic interested me
Bath have 14 maidens for 3 year olds over 5f
Thats 14 maiden races over 5f any time of year
Unraced horses are 0-12
Horses with Under 2 career starts are 0-31
13 of the 14 winners had between 2 and 8 runs
This just puts me off BALLION a bit
This is a tricky 5f for inexperienced horses
I would expect ZUZINIA to at least place
VALE OF PARIS could be a threat but she's dark
Hard to read and she is not matched to a winner
ZUZINIA 5/2
Each Way
H e x h a m 2.25
2/1 Penglai Pavilion, 9/4 Venue, 9/2 Mercoeur
8/1 Running Brook, 11/1 Another Bygones
12/1 Ping, 25/1 Jimmy Crackle, 25/1 Touch Of Steel
33/1 Cherry Princess, 33/1 Reeflex, 100/1 Persian Fashion.
This is an interesting 2m Novice Hurdle
Slightly unusual because of PENGLAI PAVILION
He is a Group horse on the Flat
He is having his first national hunt race after a break
I looked at the record of similar types
That is horses with no National Hunt runs at all
But with Previous form on the Flat
There was a very modest 5-171 record
Those aged 5 like PENGLAI PAVILION were 0-44
Those absent more than 3 months were 1-92
PENGLAI PAVILION has a pretty weak profile
You have to factor in his level of backclass
It is a race where you have to make a decision
Togo with the class horse with no National Hunt form
Or go with a less talented proven National Hunt type
These angles persuade me to leave the favourite
Running Brook was 40/1 when he won last time
Ping is unraced and not for me
Another Bygones has to improve a lot on the numbers
His sire produces low grade handicappers. Not for me
VENUE has to be the bet
He comes here 123 118 123 on Racing Post Ratings
That should put him in this race with every chance
Selection
VENUE 11/4
Each Way
B a t h 2.40
5/2 Stroke Of Midnight, 7/2 Eglantyne Dream
6/1 Cuppatee, 8/1 Fit, 8/1 Jumeirah Star
8/1 Princess Kodia, 10/1 Wilspa´s Magic
14/1 Tulip Dress, 20/1 David´s Beauty
33/1 Olivia Pope.
* This is a 2yo maiden over 5f
* There is one stat I like about this track
* Look at 2 year old races at Bath with 9 + runners
* Bath have 495 of these races since 1997
* Thats any time of year, any distance and any class
* Look at the 2 year olds drawn in Stall 1
* Almost all of these had 2 or more career starts
* Those draw 1 with under 2 career starts are 1-122
* EGLANTYNE DREAM fails this 1-22 statistic
* I do not want a once raced 2yo drawn 1
* FIT flopped on his debut
* With 2 months break he has to be considered
* STROKE OF MIDNIGHT is the numbers horse
* I think she may have too much for these
Selection
STROKE OF MIDNIGHT 13/8
Win Bet
Musselburgh 2.50
I've played around with the draw in this 5f
sprint and some fitness issues. I would be
making DISTANT PAST the saver. I feel he
has the best chance but the price is tight.
MAPPIN TIME has just recorded his career
best numbers over 5f and did that twice.
Selection
MAPPIN TIME 8/1 Win Bet
DISTANT PAST 11/4 Saver
S a n d o w n 2.55
9/4 Waady, 5/2 Likely, 3/1 Profitable
8/1 Zuhoor Baynoona, 9/1 Elysian Flyer
16/1 Merdon Castle, 20/1 Rosie´s Premiere
33/1 Miss Mullberry, 33/1 Union Rose.
This is a Listed race over 5f
14 renewals
Horses absent more than 6 weeks are 0-34
Horses with under 3 runs are 0-11
These angles put me off LIKELY
I wanted another run for ELYSIAN FLYER
WAADY commands a lot of respect
PROFITABLE has a clear edge on the numbers
Selection
PROFITABLE 7/2
Each Way
M u s s e l b u r g h 3.25
4/1 Red Baron, 6/1 Online Alexander
15/2 Barnet Fair, 9/1 Boom The Groom, 10/1 Demora
10/1 Fast Track, 16/1 Caspian Prince, 16/1 Hawkeyethenoo,
16/1 Masamah, 20/1 Arctic Feeling, 20/1 Confessional,
20/1 Kingsgate Choice, 20/1 Lexi´s Hero
20/1 See The Sun, 25/1 Blithe Spirit, 25/1 Perfect Pasture
33/1 Addictive Dream.
This is a high quality 5f sprint
Since 2011 there were 48 races here with 10 + runners
Horses drawn 1 and 2 were 1-89
BOOM THE GROOM has a bad draw
Horses aged 7 or more have underperformed
None have won this race (0-38)
I looked in all similar races for horses aged 7 +
Those absent more than 19 days were 0-80
Those with under 5 races that season are 0-94
MASAMAH is absent too long as an 8yo
HAWKEYETHENOO fails both the above stats
BARNET FAIR looks very underraced this year aged 7
Given just 2 completed runs I would oppose him
FAST TRACK has a shaky profile
Not keen he has raced just once this year
I also feel Stall 7 is not a helpful draw
I'm going to take out SEE THE SUN
I looked at his sires 5f runners
None have won beyond a Class 4 race yet
Shortlist
ONLINE ALEXANDER is had to read
She is a 4yo filly and these have a 1-25 record
That winner had 6 runs that season and came from 6f
ONLINE ALEXANDER only has 2 runs
DEMORA only has 2 runs
That worries me as a 6yo mare
RED BARON - Excellent prospects
I can't see another horse I can make a strong case for
Selection
RED BARON 9/2
Each Way
S a n d o w n 3.30
4/1 Eternitys Gate, 5/1 Royal Brave, 7/1 Ask The Guru
7/1 Extrasolar, 8/1 Macdillon, 8/1 Rocket Rob
10/1 Eleusis, 10/1 Powerful Wind, 12/1 Tahchee
14/1 Alpha Delta Whisky, 16/1 Salvatore Fury
16/1 Valmina
* This is a 5f handicap
* 9 past renewals and they shared this profile
* They were Male
* They were aged 4-5-6-7-8
* They ran within the past 3 weeks
* They were beaten under 6 lengths last time out
* They all came from handicaps over 5f or 6f
* They all came from Class 4 or Class 5 races
* If these angles work again one of 3 will win
SALVATORE FURY
ASK THE GURU
ROYAL BRAVE
Selection
ROYAL BRAVE 5/1
Each Way
C h e s t e r 3.40
6/1 Dr Red Eye, 13/2 Chilworth Icon
13/2 Rusty Rocket, 7/1 Sir Billy Wright,
9/1 Duke Cosimo, 10/1 Nezar, 11/1 Ballesteros
12/1 Cruise Tothelimit, 12/1 Smokethatthunders
16/1 Gramercy, 16/1 Rise To Glory, 20/1 Deauville Prince
20/1 Whozthecat.
This is a 6f handicap
Not prepared to bet a horse drawn 11 or more
I'm against horses with 1 run this year
Not persuaded by Ballesteros without a recent run
Dr Red Eye isn't racing over his best trip
Chilworth Icon is much better in a smaller field than this
Deauville Prince is unsafe down from 8f
SIR BILLY WRIGHT has enough to shortlist
RUSTY ROCKET looked as good a choice as any
No Selection
Y o r k 4.20
4/1 First Sitting, 7/1 Rousayan, 8/1 Cornish Path
10/1 Artful Prince, 12/1 Barren Brook, 12/1 Correggio
12/1 Mfiftythreedotcom, 12/1 Park Place, 12/1 Reggie Bond
14/1 Hernando Torres, 14/1 Toga Tiger 16/1 Ahoy There
16/1 Roayh, 20/1 War Poet,
This is a 0-82 handicap over just under 9f
There is an amazing draw bias here
Not unexpected given the shape of the track
Since 2008 there were 29 races over this distance
Horses drawn 2-3-4-5-6-7-8 won 28 of these
Horses drawn 9 or higher have found it extremely tough
They have a 1-141 record in these 27 races
I am opposing the following high drawn horses
REGGIE BOND - WAR POET - MFIFTYTHREEDOTCOM
AHOY THERE - BARREN BROOK - ARTFUL PRINCE
TOGA TIGER - ROUSAYAN
Shortlist
FIRST SITTING
PARK PLACE
CORNISH PATH
CORREGGIO
I like CORREGGIO best
Beaten 1.75 lengths in last years race
Drawn too high last year
Noe drawn better and 10lbs lower
CORREGGIO 12/1
Each Way
C h e s t e r 4.50
11/8 Poetic Verse 5/2 Energia Fox
6/1 Grand Liaison, 6/1 Thatchereen, 8/1 Miss Lucy Jane
9/1 Rowlestone Lass, 12/1 Vicky Valentine.
I would steer more towards the class horses
in this fillies handicap.
I can't see Rowlestone Lass winning a 0-85 as
his best turf Racing Post Rating is only 60 and
I was more persuaded by the classier horses.
ENERGIA FOX
POETIC VERSE
It may come down to which stays better in the
ground. I would save on one and bet the other.
I feel POETIC VERSE is certainly the safer bet
B a t h 5.10
4/1 Skate, 5/1 Dreams Of Glory, 5/1 Head Space
5/1 Silverrica, 6/1 Verus Delicia, 7/1 Dominium
7/1 Fear Or Favour, 10/1 Swendab.
This is a 0-80 handicap over 5.5f
Unusual distance so I use 5f and 6f statistics
I looked at 5f and 6f handicaps in June
Trying to see how SKATE's profile worked out
3 year old seasonal debutants
Under 7 career starts
I found a 0-13 record with these horses
I should oppose SKATE with just 4 runs
I'm looking for an each way alternative
VERUS DELICIA isn't safe as a mare absent 4 days
SWENDAB is not running well enough
FEAR OR FAVOUR is very interesting
Big drop in class. He would win at his best
Easy to make a great case on paper for him in a 0-80
He isn't running well though
I watched his last run and I saw little spark
Didn't strike me as a horse about to win
DOMINIUM wouldn't be my first choice
Not as 2nd top weight on a career high mark
Shortlist
HEAD SPACE
SILVERRICA
DREAMS OF GLORY
Tight call. I went with runs this year and
course experience which led me to this
DREAMS OF GLORY 6/1
Each Way
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Best Wishes
Guy Ward
www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk
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