Mathematician 2263
Saturday July 18th
0 Account Bet
0 Selection
1 Profile & Preview bets
0 Negatives
5 Races Discussed
Profile & Preview Bet
Chester 2.25
WEE JEAN 11/2
Win Bet
6/1 PPower
11/2 Tote Betfred Bet365 VC Ladbrokes
I wasn't looking forward to planning today's
message with 9 meetings. Crazy stuff again
and fraught with danger. My form has been
very consistent recently. Many bets winning
and those that failed have finished second.
I am just where I want to be in terms of form
results and confidence and I am not risking
any of that on this genetically modified day.
We have done very well recently with Irish
and National Hunt Racing but I don't see a
race I like enough today away from the flat.
If we take a small step back today so be it.
We can afford it and it wouldn't bother me.
T o d a y s M e s s a g e
Five Previews today but realistically just 4
The Wetherbys Super Sprint is out of place
It is only a vanity project as we do well in this
I have a 2yo Seller at Ripon I like (2.10pm)
The other 3 races are handicaps
None and easy but they are not impossible.
Newmarket 1.40 Strong Steps 9/2 - 4/1 Each Way
Ripon 2.10 - Lolamotion 11/2 Each Way
Chester 2.25 - Wee Jean 7/1 Win Bet
Haydock 6.50 - Irish Girls Spirit 5/1 Win Bet
Only 2 of these were considered for bets
Newmarket 1.40
STRONG STEPS 4/1 Each Way
I like this bet a lot
I just wouldn't want the ground too fast
I have a staking dilemma as well
I could easily go win bet and a saver
Ifwecan and Algaith are my dangers
In the end I went each way
I see an improving 3yo with a light weight
Chester 2.25
WEE JEAN 5/1 Win Bet
Different class if he runs his race
Huge chance he won't do that though
I have a theory that makes him an interesting bet
It needs to be right though as he could run a stinker
I could not split these two bets
I Made the decision partly based on non runners
They have made WEE JEAN's chance greater
Any more non runners would badly hurt Strong Steps
Non runners in WEE JEANS race would help him
D a i l y N e g a t i v e s
No Bet Today
Results of Negatives
17 correct bets from 19
F r i d a y s S u m m a r y
One each way bet yesterday which ran well coming
a predictable second place behind the favourite so
nothing unexpected there. The feedback I had after
the race all said swap jockeys and swap the results
as our man was out ridden. No damage done and it
was worth a try and she never looked like finishing
unplaced. That was the minimum standard required
with a short Friday message. The only other race in
the message saw the selection fall when he clearly
would have been placed at worst so whilst annoying
it goes with the territory and at least it wasn't a bet.
P r o f i l e & P r e v i e w s
N e w m a r k e t 1.40
7/2 Strong Steps, 9/2 Algaith,
5/1 Emirates Skycargo, 10/1 Ifwecan,
12/1 Flow, 12/1 Secret Art, 14/1 Boonga Roogeta
16/1 Directorship.
* This is a Class 2 Handicap over a Mile
* There are 51 similar races in July
* There are some interesting 3yo angles here
* Horses aged 3 have a 7-92 record in these 51 races
* However look at those beaten last time out
* Horses aged 3 beaten last time out were just 1-71
* Those that had 6 or more career starts were 0-51
* EMIRATES SKYCARGO fails the above angles
* Horses aged 3 with 6 or more career runs were 2-63
* Those absent over 3 weeks were 0-23
* EMIRATES SKYCARGO also fails that
* I have to oppose him on those 3yo profile
* I also feel he has the worst of the draw
* This is another interesting 3yo statistic
* Horses aged 3
* 6 or more previous races
* Running in the previous 2 Months
* There was a 5-85 record with these horses
* Those that won last time were 5-19
* Those that lost last time were 0-66
* EMIRATES SKYCARGO fail this
* Horses aged 8 or more are just 1-57
* None of these were aged 9 or more
* DIRECTORSHIP looks too old as a 9yo
* BOONGA ROOGETA is rejected
* I don't want an older mare hammered last time
* FLOW is a 5yo absent 94 days
* Horses aged 5 or more won 26 of the 51 races
* Those absent over 52 days were 0-20
* I wouldn't rule him out on that stat alone
* Hard to fancy him though absent 93 days
* Having never won in this class or off this handicap mark
* SECRET ART is 5 and won last time
* 6 winners did that absent 18 8 8 11 21 9 days
* SECRET ART absent 20 days is not out of this
* Only 1 exposed 5yo followed up a win absent 2 + weeks
* That was a horse called Ace of Hearts
* He came from a Class 2 race
* SECRET ART only comes from a Class 3
* It is not a strong or perfect profile
* I will shortlist him based on negatives for others
* ALGAITH is a 3yo
* Not too bad a profile
* I needed a place last time out to match him though
* I would see him as 3rd choice
* IFWECAN is a 4yo that ran 3 days ago
* That could be a big advantage in this race
* My angles are a bit cautions though
* So few with his profile have tried to win
* I would have to argue his profile is neutral positive
* IFWECAN is also 0-17 in Class 2 races
* I am very tempted to have a saver with a recent run
* I just wonder if this is a prep race for Glorious Goodwood
* It would be typical of his trainer to do this
* He has ran at the previous two Goodwood festivals
* I won't be surprised if he runs well without winning
* Mind you this is 28k first prize so I'm possibly wrong
* STRONG STEPS is the best 3yo profile
* Mainly because he has under 6 previous runs
* I like his chance and his profile
* If he had won last time it would be a brilliant profile
* He was only beaten in a photo last time
* He should have won mugged on the line
Selection
STRONG STEPS 9/2
Each Way
R i p o n 2.10
2/1 I T Guru, 11/4 Fred´s Filly, 7/1 Griffin Street
7/1 Lolamotion, 8/1 Scarlet Pursuits, 14/1 Bond´s Pearl
14/1 Whispering Wolf, 20/1 Piccacard, 20/1 Turpintina
33/1 Tutill.
This is a 6f selling race for 2 year olds
I like a bit of experience in these races
Past winners had the following carer starts
3 5 5 1 3 5 3 4 2 4 6
Most past winners had 3-4-5-6 previous runs
The only winner with 1 run was in a falsely run race
I would ignore the very lightly raced horses
That includes the unraced BOND´S PEARL
His sires unraced horses over 6f + are just 1-133
FRED´S FILLY has 2 runs
I can't rule her out statistically
Not sold on her as all her main rivals have more experience
I T GURU doesn't excite me
Male horses from 6f sellers
Beaten in that seller last time out
Under 4 career starts
There was only a weak 1-59 record with these types
That winner had a more recent run than T GURU
PICCACARD has a weak profile well beaten over 7f
GRIFFIN STREET had a shaky profile
His Racing Post Ratings are regressive as well
WHISPERING WOLF doesn't offer enough
Shortlist
SCARLET PURSUITS - optional saver at 8/1
LOLAMOTION has the best profile
Fillies from 5f sellers
5 career starts
Beaten under 5 lengths last time
Running 16-23 days beforehand
7 horses had this profile
They finished 2 W 8 4 3 W 2
LOLAMOTION has this profile
Selection
LOLAMOTION 5/1
Each Way
C h e s t e r 2.25
100/30 Invoke, 4/1 Only Joking,
5/1 True Pleasure, 11/2 Imshivalla, 7/1 Signoret
8/1 Wee Jean.
This is a 7f handicap over fillies
Some observations about one horse
WEE JEAN 8/1
There is a lot I do not like. What a horrible frame to
this race. WEE JEAN hasn't won in ages. She simply
seems to flatter to deceive and ends up hammered
in most of her races. She has never raced here and
we don't know if the track will suit. She will probably
do what she always does and let us down. That said
there are some very interesting positives about her.
WEE JEAN was rated 103 at the start of the season
She is now rated 85 having dropped down very fast
She dropped from 103 to 100 97 96 93 89 85 in 6 runs
That seems a very generous fall in the weights
It means WEE JEAN can now race in a 0-85
This is about the easiest class he has ever raced in
WEE JEAN is now rated 85 and only has a 0-80 to beat
On her best form she could destroy these
She probably won't do but I intend to risk her anyway
All we need is a good reason for her to run well
Why she may put a string of poor races behind her
We are clutching at Straws a bit but I don't mind that
Not when she is a big price in a small field
The first time visor may make a difference
Perhaps she will love this track and reignite her season
My Best reason or hope is why she could bounce back
Is the record of her sire Captain Gerard
Captain Gerard has bred winners over 8f or more
Not many though and none won above Class 5 Grade
There is a case to make about WEE JEAN's stamina
She may not stay a mile especially in classy races
None of her sires runners have won over 8f in Class 4 +
I have raised this question mark about her before
A couple of her runs do suggests she stays 8f easily
I think that is misleading and has fooled her trainer
If I am right and WEE JEAN doesn't stay a mile
Then you can excuse almost all her recent form
She's been running over 8f in much better races
Today she is down in distance and down in class
In a small field she could bounce back
I appreciate this could just be fantasy talk
Bit when I watched a couple of recent runs on video
She may have have been thrashed in them
But she had plenty left in the tank
She was hardly touched in the last furling last time
I am giving her a chance to bounce back to form
Selection
WEE JEAN 8/1
Win Bet
N e w b u r y 3.45
7/2 Excessable, 7/2 Soapy Aitken, 9/2 Great Page
9/1 Receding Waves, 10/1 Hawatif, 12/1 Belvoir Bay
14/1 Moondyne Joe, 14/1 Racquet, 16/1 Lathom
16/1 Mr Lupton, 20/1 Powerallied, 33/1 Field Of Vision
33/1 Force Awakens, Sunnua, 40/1 David´s Duchess
40/1 Midnight Malibu, Another Boy, 50/1 Back To Bond
50/1 Pacches, Princess Kodia, 66/1 Jessie B Goode
66/1 Mermaid, 66/1 Mininggold.
* The Super Sprint is for 2 year olds over 5f
* There is only 1 reason I am doing the race this year
* That is because my angles almost always get it right
* We have a ridiculous record of shortlisting the winner
* Ignore horses without a run in the last 7 weeks
* Male horses that ran within 2 weeks were 0-72
* No past winner had 6 or more career starts
* No past winner came from Nursery's
* No winners came from maidens with 3 + runs
* Horses with 4 + previous runs need pattern form
* Those that came from Class 2 or lower were 0-127
* Most past winners had ran in Class 3 or higher before
* Avoid these horses if the following applies -
* They must be avoided if having 3 + runs
* They must be avoided if Male
* They must be avoided if Losing last time
* They must be avoided if dropping in distance
* No winner was beaten over 10 lengths over 5f last time
Shortlist
SOAPY AITKEN
GREAT PAGE
RACQUET
BELVOIR BAY
Selection
GREAT PAGE 6/1
Each Way
H a y d o c k 6.50
4/1 Thorntoun Lady, 6/1 Irish Girls Spirit
6/1 Taffetta, 8/1 White Flag, 10/1 Where The Boys Are
14/1 Findhorn Magic, 14/1 Loumarin
20/1 Busy Bimbo, 20/1 Two Turtle Doves.
This is a fillies handicap over 5f
There are 24 of these races in July
I want a recent run in this race
23 of the 24 winners ran within 28 days
LOUMARIN is absent too long as a 3yo
I see 3 year olds as fine as a general principle
I'm not sure Haydock is the ideal track for them
Haydock all aged handicaps over 5f
Run any any time of year
Run in Class 4 or lower
Horses aged 3
Coming from a 5f race
Under 12 career starts
There was a 0-34 record with these horses
None have won here in Class 4 or lower
LOUMARIN fails this
Since 2012 there were 23 handicaps here
23 handicaps over 5f with 9 + runners
Horses drawn 1 and 2 had a 0-38 record
TWO TURTLE DOVES is poorly drawn and badly weighted
BUSY BIMBO is poorly drawn and badly weighted
Now there are 9 runners we need to be careful
TWO TURTLE DOVES is a 9 year old though
None her age have won any similar fillies handicaps
THORNTOUN LADY won last time out as a 5yo
My main statistical problem with her is 2 runs this year
All older horses like her had far more runs that season
Not sure she will follow up having just two seasonal runs
THORNTOUN LADY was lucky to win last time
The pace collapsed as the leaders went off too fast
My angles suggest we should look elsewhere
WHERE THE BOYS ARE finished last of 8 last time out
If you look at her best 3 Racing Post Ratings
All 3 came with long absences
Two were with several months off the other 6 weeks off
Maybe she is a horse that is best fresh
WHITE FLAG is a 4yo with 20 career starts
Horses aged 4 with 17-23 runs from 5f handicaps won 2 races
The 2 winners were absent 1 and 5 days
WHITE FLAG has 13 days off but more positives than not
That said she has never won in this class
She isn't a very big horse either
She should go quite close all the same
IRISH GIRLS SPIRIT has an interesting profile
Horses aged 4 or more
Coming from a 5f handicap
Running within 7 days
Beaten last time but not more than 6 lengths
At least 17 previous career runs
There were 14 horses with this profile
5 of the 14 won finishing in these positions
W 3 8 W 3 W 9 W 2 2 3 3 W 3
12 of the 14 horses like her placed and 5 won
IRISH GIRLS SPIRIT has ran 4 times with a very recent run
She has a W 3 W 5 record running under a week ago
Selection
IRISH GIRLS SPIRIT 5/1
Win Bet
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Best Wishes
Guy
www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk
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