Mathematician 1751
1 Account Bet
Sandown 3.35
THERE4S NO PANIC 12/1 Win Bet
ALFIE SPINNER 7/1 Saver Bet
M e s s a g e C o n t e n t
A National Hunt message today with strong
tracks and quality racing. I have picked out
certain races I like and a few other angles.
There are 11 previews and the main aim is
to try and find a decent bet at a big price.
M e s s a g e H i g h l i g h t s
Not a swashbuckling message today. I have
just tried to sort out some big priced horses
and come up with three races I liked. There
is an argument that THERE4S NO PANIC may
not like big fields or may not stay but I think
that is based on assumptions and given his
price I want to risk him at 12/1 with a saver.
Sandown 12.50
TOP TOTTI 8/1 Win Bet
MRS PEACHEY 4/1 Saver Bet
Aintree 3.15
STORMIN EXIT 10/1 Each Way
PLEIN POUVOIR 10/1 Saver Bet
Sandown 3.35
THERE4S NO PANIC 12/1 Win Bet
ALFIE SPINNER 7/1 Saver Bet
Speculative bet today. No surprise if he fails
but I have two lightweights against a few of
these that may have more problems than it
looks and at the prices I am happy enough.
P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s
W e t h e r b y 12.10
15/8 Mysteree, 11/4 I Need Gold, 4/1 Mister Newby
6/1 Just Cameron, 7/1 Lucky Cody, 16/1 Latest Fashion
25/1 Bhakti, 25/1 Top Chief, 28/1 Dream Flyer
28/1 Sir Harry Hotspur, 66/1 Battledancer
66/1 Jazz Man, 100/1 Agesilas, 100/1 Moneymix.
* This is a Novice Hurdle over 2m 6f
* I NEED GOLD comes from a recent bumper
* I looked at all 5 year olds with his profile
* There was a 3-27 record
* Those that won bumpers last time were 3-4
* Those beaten in that bumper were 0-23
* I NEED GOLD was beaten 10 lengths last time
* He is like the horses that made up the 0-23 record
* I can find winners like him at shorter distances
* That stops me getting too excited
* MISTER NEWBY looks unsafe and unattractive
* JUST CAMERON has a absence from a hurdle
* I can find winners like him at shorter distances
* None at this distance
* MYSTEREE sets the standard on his last two runs
* I think that has earnt him the right to be selected
* I do wonder if something would improve past him
* I am giving him the benefit of the doubt
Selection
MYSTEREE 7/4
Anyone who doesn't mind short priced each way
doubles could consider using MYSTEREE in a bet
like that. I think URTICAIRE in the Navan 12.45 is
another suitable horse for that sort of bet. I think
betting MYSTEREE and URTICAIRE in a each way
double may just be worth it. Those who hate this
type of bet have the option of betting him to win.
S a n d o w n 12.20
2/1 Vibrato Valtat, 11/4 Champagne At Tara
3/1 Vaniteux, 11/2 Money For Nothing, 10/1 Rhapando
14/1 Comte D4anjou, 33/1 Morning Reggie
100/1 Area Access, 100/1 Sweet Boy Vic.
* This is a 2m Novice Hurdle
* The race is dominated by 4 year olds
* VIBRATO VALTAT is from a Novice Handicap
* 3 winners did that having 6 6 13 hurdle starts
* VIBRATO VALTAT with 3 runs isn't a close match
* VANITEUX is an unraced Nicky Henderson horse
* You would prefer experience given the choice
* Henderson has won the last 4 renewals though
* There has been unraced hurdlers win this race
* Those that did all had Bumper runs though
* VANITEUX doesn't have that
* VANITEUX and VIBRATO VALTAT are not selected
* MONEY FOR NOTHING has an acceptable profile
* The form of his debut run is working out well enough
* I can not rule him out at a big price
* CHAMPAGNE AT TARA is from a recent Listed Bumper
* 3 horses had this profile and one won
* I just preferred that profile to the others
Selection
CHAMPAGNE AT TARA 2/1
Win Bet
Chepstow 12.25
There may be too many runners in this Novice Hurdle
to take a confident view. I wont bother with a bet here.
MORITO DU BERLAIS and MIDNIGHT THUNDER are both
4 year olds from Bumpers and neither would be my 1st
choice. CAROLE4S DESTRIER has the ability but falling
last time damages his profile and unless I have to then
I don't bet last time fallers in these races. The obvious
one was GUNNER FIFTEEN. Horses with his profile had
a 1-3 record. He's a short price in a big field though so
I don't think he is worth it with no hurdling runs before.
W e t h e r b y 12.40
2/1 Dreams Of Milan, 5/1 Hatters River
5/1 Houndscourt, 6/1 Dartford Warbler, 6/1 Westward Point
8/1 Rick, 12/1 Purcell4s Bridge, 33/1 Jimmie Brown.
* This is a 2m 4f Novice Handicap Chase
* DREAMS OF MILAN is a seasonal debutant aged 5
* Not convinced that's a good profile
* November and December have 648 of these races
* Thats 648 Novice Handicap Chases at every distance
* I looked at 5 year old seasonal debutants
* There was a 5-85 record
* 4 of the 5 winners came from Novice Hurdles
* DREAMS OF MILAN comes from Handicaps
* Those that came from handicaps were just 1-39
* Those from Novice Handicaps like him were 0-14
* DREAMS OF MILAN is not like any winners
* Not like any of 648 in either of two months
* Finding the right alternative isn't easy
* These are complicated races at the best of times
* HATTERS RIVER would be my choice
* His Racing Post Ratings are progressive
* He has improved them 5 races in a row now
* He's a big strong chasing type and looks the safer bet
Selection
HATTERS RIVER 7/2
Each Way
S a n d o w n 12.50
3/1 Tigresse Bleue, 5/1 Mrs Peachey, 7/1 Scholastica
8/1 Benefique Royale, 8/1 In By Midnight, 8/1 Top Totti
10/1 Tante Sissi, 12/1 Lady Kathleen, 14/1 Golden Gael
16/1 Teochew, 20/1 Alder Mairi, 25/1 Synthe Davis.
* This is a Mares Handicap Hurdle over 2m 4f
* There are only 17 similar races in December
* I don't think we can know enough about these
* TIGRESSE BLEUE is from a Novice Handicap
* Horses doing that had a 0-7 record
* She could still win but I'd be happier if one had done
* I looked at horses from Chases and all 15 lost
* TANTE SISSI - GOLDEN GAEL - SYNTHE DAVIS do this
* I looked at horses with 1 run this season
* There were 4 winners but 3 of these were 9 year olds
* Horses aged 8 or lower with 1 run this year were 1-33
* Maybe they don't have the strength they need
* LADY KATHLEEN - Not for me with 1 run this year
* TEOCHEW - I'd avoid with just the one race this year
* ALDER MAIRI is out for similar reasons
* BENEFIQUE ROYALE - Not for me from a 2m Novice Hurdle
* SCHOLASTICA only has 1 run this season
* She was a selection when she won 2 weeks ago
* I see her as a positive despite just one run this year
* I'd be happier to side with a horse with more runs
* TOP TOTTI should be shortlisted well raced this year
* MRS PEACHEY should also be strongly considered
* I like that both of these are well raced recently
Selection
TOP TOTTI 8/1 Win Bet
MRS PEACHEY 4/1 Saver Bet
S a n d o w n 1.20
4/1 Whisper, 6/1 Upswing, 6/1 Utopie Des Bordes
8/1 Drum Valley, 8/1 Saphir Du Rheu, 10/1 Bourne
12/1 Home Run, 14/1 Act Of Kalanisi, 14/1 Salmanazar
16/1 Liberty Court, Oscar Magic, 20/1 Experimentalist
20/1 Oscar Prairie, 25/1 Darroun, 25/1 Malt Master
25/1 Problema Tic.
I have made a mess of this in recent years with
many different types winning. I'll be interested
to see if Utopie Des Bordes can defy topweight.
I would not want to bet her doing at Sandown
with that weight as she is a very small animal.
I don't think Drum Valley is well handicapped.
Bourne is by Linamix and although he has had
winners over 2m 5f and more it interests me to
see when they race in Class 3 or higher these
Linamix's are just 1-74 over this distance so he
is not for me either. These would be the horses
I would avoid. I think these horses look safer
* Act Of Kalanisi- could just be a bit exposed
* Upswing - Wouldn't be first choice
* Whisper- Looks more of a saver than win bet
* SAPHIR DU RHEU could be the best option
* I looked at 4 year olds in this race
* Those running within 2 weeks
* Those beaten under 10 lengths last time
* There was a W W record from 2 horses
* The 2001 and 2004 winners had this profile
Selection
SAPHIR DU RHEU 7/1 Win Bet
WHISPER 7/2 Saver Bet
A i n t r e e 2.05
7/1 On His Own, 11/1 Join Together, 12/1 Across The Bay
12/1 Vesper Bell, 12/1 Wyck Hill, 14/1 Bostons Angel
14/1 Planet Of Sound, 14/1 Walkon, 16/1 Bennys Mist
16/1 Big Fella Thanks, 16/1 Gullible Gordon, 16/1 Swing Bill
16/1 Pineau De Re, 16/1 Roberto Goldback, , 20/1 Baby Run
20/1 Chance Du Roy, 20/1 Storm Survivor, 25/1 Chartreux
25/1 Rose Of The Moon, 25/1 Sizing Australia
33/1 Ballybough Gorta, 33/1 Ikorodu Road, 33/1 Junior
33/1 Mr Moonshine.
* The Becher Chase is a Handicap Chase over 3m 2f
* Its a Listed Class race over the Grand National fences
* There are 16 past renewals of this race
* Nothing can be ruled out in this unique race
* Last year the winner was as old as 14
* The same horse was 12/1 when winning first time in 2010
* It is just a unique test that can break any statistic
* BABY RUN is 13 and absent 959 days
* Despite 12yo debutants winning this is asking too much
* JUNIOR - Not for me first time out with topweight
* WALKON - Not keen to bet him after a fall
* He was struggling anyway and doesn't seem to be right
* I don't think he will stay this far anyway
* ROSE OF THE MOON is a seasonal debutant
* Not for me coming from a Novice Chase
* No seasonal debutant won without 6 Chase runs
* ROSE OF THE MOON only has 4 runs
* Horses aged 7 are 1-21 in the last 16 renewals
* Older horses have a better record
* VESPER BELL is a 7yo debutant and none have won
* With just 5 Chase runs he isn't my choice
* No debutant won without at least 6 Chase runs
* STORM SURVIVOR is not the best age (7)
* He lacks Graded form and all past winners had that
* BENNYS MIST- Rejected as a 7yo with a bad last run
* ON HIS OWN - No doubting he has the ability
* Coming from a 2m 4f hurdle wouldn't put me off
* He has Fallen twice in just two races at Aintree
* That doesn't worry me too much
* It would worry me he will probably run in the National
* With a long term plan he may not be ready to win this
* I wouldn't want a poor recent run
* I looked at the 12 renewals since 2001
* There were 7 winners that raced that season
* Those beaten over 10 lengths last time were 1-61
* That winner came from a Cross Country race
* I just a very poor last run has to be a negative
* CHARTREUX didn't do enough last time out
* MR MOONSHINE was beaten too far just 2 weeks ago
* BALLYBOUGH GORTA is out after his last run
* BIG FELLA THANKS didn't do enough last time out
* BOSTONS ANGEL has joined David Pipe from Ireland
* He is regressive and aims to recover his old form
* Former RSA winner he has been in Cross Country races
* Likely to be a prep run and he is unsafe
* IKORODU ROAD comes from a 2m 4f race
* I don't fancy him winning over 2m 4f last time
* Up into a Class he has never won in before
* SIZING AUSTRALIA looks more a cross country type
* PINEAU DE RE needs a career best
* Without Aintree experience he wouldn't be first choice
* CHANCE DU ROY - No statistical objections
* He looks the stable's second string though
* His stamina would also worry me
* His form's over shorter and his sire has no 26f winners
* GULLIBLE GORDON has twice failed in this race
* I want more evidence of being in form
* ROBERTO GOLDBACK had a decent prep race
* He must have a reasonable chance
* His two Aintree runs were unhappy experienced
* You would think he was better in a smaller field
* The fences and field size put me off him
* PLANET OF SOUND is an 11yo seasonal debutant
* SWING BILL is a 12yo seasonal debutant
* There were 2 seasonal debutant winners aged 11 +
* I don't see any strong reason why they can't win
* Both horses aged 11 + doing this had 10st 5lbs or less
* PLANET OF SOUND has 10lbs more weight than that
* SWING BILL has 6lbs more weight
* PLANET OF SOUND could pop up and I shortlist him
* He likes this track and is very smart on his day
* SWING BILL was 6th in the Grand National
* He was also 4th in this race last year
* He had 2 warm up races though last year
* A year old and no prep races this year
* SWING BILL has a harder task this year for me
* Interesting Tom Scudamore has rejected him
Possibles
* ACROSS THE BAY has raced once this season
* Beaten 36 lengths last time isn't a good sign
* That said it was a Graded Hurdle and this is a Chase
* Thats forgivable but it was still a heavy defeat
* He doesn't look well treated either
* I think his trainer will have the Grand National in mind
* That may mean he is here to prepare for that
* WYCK HILL was beaten 29 lengths first time out
* That puts him in a weak position statistically
* If he is tuned up he could overcome that
* Equally he could have several other targets
Shortlist
* PLANET OF SOUND has plenty to prove
* He is horse that has class and loves the track
* I would want him on my side in this race
* JOIN TOGETHER was 2nd in last years race
* That was a creditable effort as a 7 year old
* He has ran just 4 times since all runs were poor
* Were they really poor though ?
* His Grimthorpe defeat was entirely forgivable
* He had a high weight and a long absence that day
* Failing to win the Grand National is no surprise
* His Chepstow defeat 2 runs ago was expected
* Again a long absence and a high weight hurt him
* His last run in France was on heavy ground
* It was a Grade 1 race after all
* He can hardly have been expected to win these races
* If he comes back to form he can win this
Selection
PLANET OF SOUND 14/1 Win Bet
JOIN TOGETHER 14/1 Win Bet
S a n d o w n 2.25
4/1 River Maigue, 7/1 Deep Trouble, 8/1 Milord
8/1 Urbain De Sivola, 8/1 Waterunder, 10/1 Calculated Risk
10/1 Specialagent Alfie, 12/1 Ronaldo Des Mottes
12/1 Vulcanite, Radmores Revenge, 14/1 Seventh Sky
14/1 Whitby Jack, 16/1 Ruacana.
* This is a 0-140 handicap hurdle over 2 Miles
* There has been 20 renewals of this race
* Recent winners had the following Hurdle runs
* 8 4 5 4 9 26 7 5 6 11 7
* Recent winners had the following days absence
* 15 21 28 21 6 6 28 15 9 27 13
* Recent winners had these number of runs that season
* 2 1 1 3 1 2 1 3 3 2 4
* Clearly horses with 4-11 hurdle races are best
* I want a lightly raced young hurdler with a recent run
* RADMORES REVENGE - Too old and exposed up in class
* RONALDO DES MOTTES - I don't want an 8yo debutant
* Not with topweight and 15 hurdle runs already
* You want an in form horse as well
* 17 of the 20 winners of this were 1-2-3-4-5 last time
* Only one was beaten more than 12 lengths last time
* That came in a Graded race as well
* I wouldn't bet a horse with a poor last run
* VULCANITE comes here well beaten last time
* No winners came from 2m 5f + in recent years like him
* RUACANA didn't do enough last time out
* Seasonal debutants have really struggled
* Since 1992 they have a 0-38 record
* RIVER MAIGUE is a seasonal debutant with topweight
* I can't bet him without any seasonal debutants winning
* URBAIN DE SIVOLA is rejected first time out
* SEVENTH SKY is out absent 209 days
* He has never won in this class or over this distance
* WATERUNDER has to be considered
* I have just 1 problem with him his backclass
* There were 3 past winners with only Class 3 form
* All 3 had under 6 hurdle runs and were lightly raced
* WATERUNDER has 10 runs which is twice as many
* With a 7lbs claimer it's not enough
Shortlist
* MILORD has the right sort of profile
* Mind you there were 6 winning 4 year olds
* 5 won last time out and the other lost in a Graded race
* MILORD will need a career best here
* DEEP TROUBLE has a lot of positives
* 5 hurdle runs is fine and he has a good recent run
* He comes from a Novice Handicap Hurdle
* Only 1 winner did that and he was younger
* That just brings a bit of doubt to his profile
* SPECIALAGENT ALFIE has 12 hurdle runs
* Bit more than ideal but recent runs help
* i would definitely give him a chance
* CALCULATED RISK is 4 and has a recent run
* He was well beaten in a Grade 3 hurdle last time
* The 2009 winner was well beaten in a Grade 2
* He was 4 and is the closest match to this horse
* My issue is can I trust the trainer to improve him
* WHITBY JACK certainly has a chance
* Can he improve enough in the last 2 weeks
* He may be better over slightly further
* He is very well handicapped though
Selection
WHITBY JACK 10/1 Win Bet
CALCULATED RISK 8/1 Saver
S a n d o w n 3.00
2/1 Sire De Grugy, 5/2 Captain Conan, 3/1 Somersby
10/1 Kauto Stone, 14/1 Oiseau De Nuit, His Excellency
33/1 Tataniano, 40/1 Mad Moose, 50/1 Viva Colonia.
I don't have a strong opinion in this Tingle Creek.
Rarely do I bother as a string of high class horses
have corrupted a lot of these angles. It would be a
travesty if OISEAU DE NUIT could beat some very
smart Chasers. I don't fancy KAUTO STONE much
either from a 3m race. I think SOMERSBY has an
ideal small field. SIRE DE GRUGY has an obvious
chance but 17 of the last 18 winners of this had a
Grade 1 Chase to their name and he has not won
one yet. CAPTAIN CONAN has and is another who
has every chance. I can only guess here but mine
is SOMERSBY (Saver) CAPTAIN CONAN (Win bet).
A i n t r e e 3.15
6/1 Dunowen Point, 7/1 Midnight Appeal
7/1 Toby Lerone, 8/1 Shangani, 10/1 Plein Pouvoir
12/1 Forgotten Gold, 12/1 Gansey, 12/1 Rebel Rebellion
12/1 Stormin Exit, 12/1 You Must Know Me
14/1 Current Event, 14/1 Your Busy, 16/1 Poole Master
20/1 Frontier Spirit, 20/1 Quincy Des Pictons
25/1 Sergeant Pink.
* The Grand Sefton is a 2m 5f handicap chase
* The interesting statistic is 7 year olds
* So far from 12 renewals all 28 were beaten
* No horse aged 7 has finished 1st or 2nd in the race
* DUNOWEN POINT is a 7yo seasonal debutant
* YOU MUST KNOW ME is wrong as a 7yo
* SHANGANI is only a 7 year old
* FORGOTTEN GOLD is also wrong as a 7yo
* REBEL REBELLION has a tough task
* He has never won in this Class before
* I thought topweight may beat him here
* Horses in this race with 11st 9lbs or more were 0-24
* FRONTIER SPIRIT needs a career best
* I wasn't convinced he was ready to win
* POOLE MASTER wouldn't be first choice
* He is a bleeder and may prefer hurdles
* MIDNIGHT APPEAL has 11st 11lbs
* We know horses with 11st 9lbs + were 0-24
* He has plenty to prove with that weight
* No winners won over 3m recently either
* GANSEY doesn't stand out to me
* Not as an exposed 11yo chaser
* Not when running badly first time out this year
* He was 2nd last year but with much less weight
* He had 2 prep runs and a better last run
Shortlist
* TOBY LERONE is only a 6 year old
* There was just 1 winner aged 6 and he had 10 runs
* TOBY LERONE is short of chase runs (3)
* 11 of the last 12 winners had at least 5 chase starts
* He is improving though and shouldn't be underestimated
* The 2001 winner had 3 chase runs as well
* PLEIN POUVOIR is a bit more exposed than ideal
* He doesn't look well handicapped either
* If the 7yo statistic works the race is opened up
* PLEIN POUVOIR therefore has to be respected
* STORMIN EXIT has a good chance
* I don't like that he comes from a 2m race
* No horse his age or older managed that
* I have bigger problems with other horses though
* His trainer has a W 8 3 F W PU record in this race
* The faller was STORMIN EXIT when a 7yo in 2010
Selection
STORMIN EXIT 10/1 Each Way
PLEIN POUVOIR 10/1 Saver Bet
S a n d o w n 3.35
5/1 Buddy Bolero, 6/1 Court By Surprise,
7/1 Alfie Spinner 7/1 Bradley, 8/1 Godsmejudge
10/1 Soll, 12/1 Franklin Roosevelt, 12/1 Hunters Lodge
12/1 There4s No Panic, 16/1 Well Refreshed
20/1 American Spin 20/1 Michel Le Bon
25/1 Top Smart.
* This is a Handicap Chase over 3m 5f
* There are 28 similar races in December
* 24 of the 28 winners had runs that season
* Seasonal debutants have a 4-37 record
* There were all 10 year olds with 9-17 Chase runs
* Horses aged 6-7-8-9 first time out are 0-23
* SOLL is rejected as an 8yo debutant
* BUDDY BOLERO may be unsafe over this far
* Only 1 horse by Accordion has won over this far
* BUDDY BOLERO is trying to be the second
* He has just 5 Chase starts far less than most winners
* Past winners had 17 22 14 10 10 9 6 11 9 12 7 chase starts
* I don't want him with 5 runs when there's a stamina doubt
* BUDDY BOLERO is also 7 and has 11st 8lbs
* No 7yo has won with more than 11st so far (0-23)
* I don't want a horse with a poor last run
* WELL REFRESHED - TOP SMART fail this
* MICHEL LE BON is a 10yo debutant and they do win
* I don't want him as he has taken a huge stable downgrade
* AMERICAN SPIN is out with 3 runs from a Novice Chase
* GODSMEJUDGE is 7 as were 5 winners
* All 5 winners had 11st or less weight
* Horses aged 7 with 11st 1lbs or more were 0-23
* GODSMEJUDGE has 11st 12lbs
* He doesn't look safe to me with that weight
* HUNTERS LODGE is 7 and has under 11st
* He has a recent run and I can live with that profile
* FRANKLIN ROOSEVELT is a 7yo and similar
* One thing bothers me about these two 7 year olds
* There are 28 of these races run in December
* ALL 28 winners had raced in at least a Class 2 grade
* HUNTERS LODGE doesn't have that backclass
* FRANKLIN ROOSEVELT doesn't have that backclass
* I don't think a 7lbs claimer helps him anyway
Shortlist
* COURT BY SURPRISE has a reasonable profile
* Certainly enough to shortlist in this
* I wasn't convinced of his stamina
* He is sired by Beneficial
* Horses by Beneficial over 3m 3f or more are 2-74
* Thats a poor record and one was a Hunter Chase
* The other was GVA Ireland who won over 4m
* BRADLEY can't be ruled out
* My main worry is whether he has enough heart to win
* If you look at his sires record
* None have won over this far in this grade
* I think there will be better stayers
* ALFIE SPINNER has enough to consider
* He looks quite well treated at the moment
* Whether its soft enough for him is another matter
* THERE4S NO PANIC has a reasonable profile
* It worries me his wins are in fields of 6 6 9 6 9 9
* His record in fields of 12 or more is this
* 5 PU 6 BD PU 6 8 6
* I don't think that's good enough evidence
* He has legitimate excuses for some of those runs
* Three of these defeats came in Graded Class
* This is two Grades lower and he's well treated
Selection
THERE4S NO PANIC 12/1 Win Bet
ALFIE SPINNER 7/1 Saver Bet
****************************************************
****************************************************
Best Wishes
Guy Ward
www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk
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