Mathematician 1807

1 Account Bet

Lingfield 4.05

ONE LAST DREAM 12/1

Each Way

Very risky one today and some tactical
concerns. I didn't really want to have a
bet but I can't turn down the big price.

M e s s a g e H i g h l i g h t s

Waterlogged tracks. Sandown have cancelled
all the hurdle races so they don't think its safe
and that tells you a lot about conditions. I feel
we should have bets today but they come with
a dose of realism with the state of the ground.

Today's Two Bets

Lingfield 2.20 - KASBHOM 2/1

Ffos Las 4.20 - GORSKY ISLAND 2/1

Win Bet on Both horses
Each Way double on Both

Lingfield 4.05

ONE LAST DREAM 12/1

Each Way

(Optional Saver Perfect Pasttime 10/1)

I am taking a chance on ONE LAST DREAM
as he is a big price. There are many things
that could go wrong tactically. He is a front
runner. There could be others and perhaps
they will cut each others throats. If he does
not win he could fold and that's why I intend
to have 75% of stakes to win and only 25%
to place as it will be enough to break level
anyway. I have a theory ONE LAST DREAM
has not been staying a mile and watching
his recent races I feel he has a big chance.

I like the staking of the first bet. Two solid
profile with big winning chances yet both
if failing should go close enough to offer
some safety with the stakes. Wasn't keen
to have this as an account bet because a
lot has to go right at modest prices which
includes a horse racing on poor ground.

I didn't really want a bet and I do suspect
we could get undone today tactically and
the race may not suit ONE LAST DREAM.

That said at 12/1 with several negatives
in the race I can't turn down the big price.

Anyone wanting a saver in the race may
want to look at Perfect Pasttime at 10/1.


M e s s a g e C o n t e n t

All 3 National Hunt meetings have survived
inspections and are on. Thats good to have
for choice but in terms of the message then
it is a logistical nightmare. I could not put a
lot of time into several races that may have
been called off. Thats why LINGFIELD is the
spine of my message as it was sure to be on.
I have done a few National hunt races today
but it would be impossible to get the detail
I'd have liked. Given conditions we have to
tread carefully. I've done what I can but the
quality of today's message was bound to be
hurt by having 3 touch and go inspections.

Friday's R e v i e w

One winner from two bets yesterday and that
seems to have happened all week. It was just
another treading water message really. Plenty
of interesting issues in there. I was pleased to
see so many shorter priced negatives beaten.
Delighted we finished W W in Ireland as well.
It wasn't all good. I got plenty wrong as well.
We were never going to do much at Kempton
with the bumper races anyway. Nothing there
to brag about but I think we got the big issues
correct and did well given plenty of previews.


P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S


L i n g f i e l d 12.10

10/11 Prime Exhibit, 9/4 Gaelic Silver
4/1 Nubar Boy, 8/1 Cyflymder
10/1 Greek Islands

This is a selling race over a mile. Not a race you
can get excited about. I was most persuaded by
the decent consistent recent form PRIME EXHIBIT
brings to the race. GAELIC SILVER has not raced
over short of 9f in over 4 years as a 3 year old so
there is a doubt about the trip. Throw in a break
of 47 days and a poor last run and there are lots
of question marks. PRIME EXHIBIT has a ratings
edge over CYFLYMDER and NUBAR BOY. Messy
frame to the race but he does look the strongest.

Selection

PRIME EXHIBIT 10/11

Win Bet

L i n g f i e l d 12.40

100/30 Zamra, 5/1 Last Echo, 5/1 Sand Stormer
5/1 Sebs Sensei, 6/1 Glace, 8/1 Awattan, 14/1 Captain Mo
14/1 Pouncing Tiger, 25/1 Amelia George
25/1 Norman4s Star.

* This is a maiden over a Mile
* I looked at 225 similar races in Jan and February
* Unraced horses can win but I would avoid them
* Too many have experience here to risk one
* The following are unraced and rejected
* AMELIA GEORGE - NORMAN4S STAR - POUNCING TIGER
* CAPTAIN MO has a lot of improvement to find
* He may find it but it is a real leap of faith
* There has been money for him
* SEBS SENSEI comes from a 7f maiden
* Horses doing this with 4 or more runs were 0-23
* SEBS SENSEI has 7 runs and fails that
* Makes me think he could be vulnerable to improvers
* SEBS SENSEI downgraded stables recently for 13k
* His Sire (Art Connoisseur) hasn't bred a mile winner yet
* His stable haven't had a winner in a long time
* They have a 0-35 record with 3 year olds in the last 5 years
* SEBS SENSEI is out. I wanted a better profile
* GLACE is a filly with 1 run absent 234 days
* I found a filly with 1 run absent 127 days
* Those absent longer than 127 days were 0-17
* GLACE is not like any winners
* LAST ECHO has the same problem
* AWATTAN is a 4yo filly with an absence
* I found 4 similar winners with 2-3-4-8 runs
* AWATTAN matches that with 4 runs
* None of them dropped from 12f though
* AWATTAN does that and it hurts her profile

Shortlist

* ZAMRA is a 3yo filly with 2 runs
* I looked at horses like her with a very recent run
* Those with 2 runs beaten under 8 lengths last time
* Similar horses had a 1-8
* They finished 2 W 2 7 3 9 2 8
* ZAMRA is a positive

* SAND STORMER has 2 runs from a 7f maiden
* It is a competent and safe profile
* The winner of this last year had this profile
* SAND STORMER is a positive

Selection

SAND STORMER 5/1 Win Bet

ZAMRA 7/2 Saver Bet

F f o s L a s 1.30

2/1 Bar A Mine, 5/2 Gate Please, 4/1 Filatore
13/2 Pure Science, 10/1 Comte D4anjou
10/1 Horatio Hornblower, 33/1 Kagouillot
50/1 Shays River, 100/1 Wicklewood.

* This is a standard 2m Novice Hurdle
* There are 468 of these races in January-Febuary
* BAR A MINE's profile looks unimpressive
* Horses aged 5 from bumpers 25-50 days ago
* Beaten 10 or more lengths last time out
* I found a 1-80 record with this profile
* That horse had 2 runs and he has 1
* BAR A MINE doesn't have a good profile
* No surprise if he wins but I'm looking elsewhere
* GATE PLEASE - The stable are struggling
* I can resist him as a 9yo well beaten over 20f last time
* PURE SCIENCE was well beaten in a 2m 5f handicap
* Similar horses were 2-40 neither were his age
* HORATIO HORNBLOWER has a 420 day absence
* Horses from novice hurdles 200 + days ago are 4-201
* Not a good record. The 6yo winners all had 1 run
* He has 2 runs and doesn't fit that profile
* FILATORE came out with the best profile
* I'd have liked a stronger stable
* I will select him on his profile

FILATORE 7/2

Each Way


F f o s L a s 2.05

2/1 Whisper, 9/4 Saphir Du Rheu, 5/1 Grand Vision
7/1 Alaivan, 10/1 Awaywiththegreys, 12/1 Home Run
16/1 Swnymor.

The Welsh Champion Hurdle doesn't interest me
statistically especially as it used to be run over a
different distance. SAPHIR DU RHEU has a hard
race when winning the Lanzarote and this might
come soon enough. As he has to give WHISPER
a lot of weight I think I'd rather go with WHISPER.

Wolverhampton 2.15

5/2 Spreadable, 5/2 Thataboy
9/2 Global Explorer, 9/2 Under Approval
8/1 Alfie Lunete, 12/1 Mighty Force.

Not really interested in this small field 3yo handicap
over 5f. My angles say Thataboy is marginally safer
than Spreadable. Not a race I'd want to commit to
as Global Explorer and Alfie Lunete ran yesterday.
Whilst both are up in class and may not cope with
THATABOY they do have a fitness edge and equally
they could pull out at any stage complicating both
prices and the frame of the race. Messy issues and
if I had to commit to one it would be THATABOY.


L i n g f i e l d 2.20

5/2 Resonare, 11/4 Kasbhom, 6/1 Multitask
8/1 Dark Lane, 8/1 Your Gifted, 14/1 Daneside
14/1 Decision By One, 14/1 The Dancing Lord
16/1 Gaelic Wizard, 25/1 Welsh Inlet.

* This is a 6f handicap for 0-65 rated horses
* THE DANCING LORD failed a hat trick bid last time
* His previous run was in a seller
* He was sold cheaply after that and doesn't appeal
* DANESIDE hasn't won in over 2 years
* Never won on sand either and he running modestly
* RESONARE has ability but is a bit too orthodox
* I looked at 5 year olds with under 11 runs like him
* There were winners but none dropped in distance
* None were lightly raced recently either
* RESONARE has raced once in 101 days
* GAELIC WIZARD could also be short of runs
* He has by far the longest absence in the race
* He's raced just once in 105 days
* YOUR GIFTED is a 7yo mare from a 5f race
* There were 6yo mares doing this
* No mare aged 7 or more has won though
* YOUR GIFTED is unsafe because of that
* She has never won beyond 5f yet either
* She missed 2012 though injury
* Her Racing Post Ratings before that were good
* Since injury nothing like as good
* She looks to have deteriorated or not found her form
* She does not offer me enough
* DECISION BY ONE is an exposed 5yo
* I looked at similar horses running 10-20 days ago
* Those beaten 4 + lengths last time were 1-42
* It is an average profile at best
* He is down in class though and has backclass
* He is also out of form though
* MULTITASK is 4 and drops from 8f to 6f
* Horses aged 4 doing this had a 2-30 record
* Both winners had 11 and 14 runs
* MULTITASK has 16 which is a bit more than ideal
* I wouldn't rule him out but there is a better profile
* WELSH INLET is a 6yo mare
* She has a recent run in a 6f handicap
* 1 similar winner beaten a shorter distance last time
* She ran well last time from the worst draw
* I would give her a chance at a big price
* She hasn't yet won at 6f before though

Shortlist

* KASBHOM is a male 4 year old with 11 runs
* He won a 6f handicap last time out
* I looked at similar 4yo's with 10-11-12 runs
* There was a 3-9 record with similar horses
* KASBHOM is a positive. Good profile

Selection

KASBHOM 2/1 Win Bet

F f o s L a s 2.40

9/2 Mountainous, 5/1 Alfie Spinner
7/1 De La Bech, 8/1 Smoking Aces
10/1 Emperor4s Choice, 12/1 Bob Ford
12/1 Flying Award, 12/1 Sir Du Bearn
14/1 Hunters Lodge, 16/1 Junior, 16/1 Ringa Bay
25/1 Firebird Flyer.

This 3m 4f handicap chase would have taken
a more prominent role without the inspections.
I don't want MOUNTAINOUS presuming a win
in the Welsh National could set him back and
he may find it hard to peak again. BOB FORD
looks unsafe from an out of from stable. Don't
feel EMPEROR4S CHOICE is safe as a 7yo that
is struggling for form. I will shortlist these two.

SMOKING ACES 6/1 Each Way

ALFIE SPINNER 7/1 Saver Bet


Wolverhampton 2.50

6/4 Daring Indian, 6/4 Uncle Bernie
4/1 Shalambar, 10/1 Moaning Butcher.

Another small field handicap this time over 2m.
The issues for me are simple. Will Uncle Bernie
stay 2 miles. If he can then he could exploit the
fitness of Daring Indian who has raced just once
since last May. If Daring Indian fails because of
a lack of runs and Uncle Bernie doesn't get home
then it brings in Shalambar to win by default. A
guessing game really. Mine is UNCLE BERNIE.



L i n g f i e l d 2.55

7/2 Rebellious Guest, 9/2 Shamdarley, 5/1 Apostle
6/1 Royal Prize, 8/1 True To Form, 12/1 Mia4s Boy
12/1 Verse Of Love, 14/1 Emerald Wilderness
14/1 Moonday Sun, 14/1 Odyssee, 33/1 Snow King.

* This is a 0-91 handicap over a mile
* There are 134 similar races in January-February
* I don't see a significant draw advantage
* SNOW KING - Not difficult to discount
* EMERALD WILDERNESS is 10 years old
* Only 1 of the 134 winners was 10 or more
* That horse ran far better than he did last time
* He won this race last year at 16/1
* He was in better form then and had a recent run
* He benefitted by coming off a strong pace last year
* Needs this to be run a specific way. Looks risky
* MOONDAY SUN - Most of his form in France
* Ran well enough on his UK debut last time
* I don't like that he has 1 race in just 107 days
* I don't see him defying a mark of 94
* SHAMDARLEY is absent 175 days
* I found a 6yo winner absent 162 days (Fallachan)
* Not a negative but factors I dislike about him
* His 4 wins all came off lower marks in lower class
* He is 0-11 racing in Class 3 or higher
* SHAMDARLEY wouldn't be my first choice
* MIA4S BOY is a 10 year old
* Only 1 of the 134 winners was 10 or more
* I couldn't rule him out but I'd like a younger horse
* Not really looking for a 10yo ridden by a claimer
* ODYSSEE is a 4yo filly absent 78 days
* There were fillies aged 4 winning
* Those absent 10 + weeks had a surprising 2-5 record
* Both had far more experience than she does
* With no form in England I wouldn't risk her
* APOSTLE won a 7f handicap 29 days ago
* I looked at horses aged 5 + doing this
* When absent 3 or more weeks
* There was a 0-5 record
* I can find a winner absent 19 days
* APOSTLE has 10 days more
* Career high mark as well he will need a career best

Shortlist

* ROYAL PRIZE is 4 absent 127 days
* 6 horses aged 4 won with long absences
* Those with 11 or more runs were 2-16
* ROYAL PRIZE - No reason he can't win if fit

* VERSE OF LOVE is 5 and comes from 7f
* Horses aged 5 doing this within 2 weeks were 2-25
* He ran well enough last time to be shortlisted
* I backed him each way last time out at 20/1
* That was 7f and he is up to a mile today
* I'd rather he stayed at 7f given the choice
* This is a big drop in class though from his last race
* VERSE OF LOVE should not be discounted

* REBELLIOUS GUEST won an 8f handicap last time
* Plenty of horses did that and 3 were like him
* I didn't expect to find any unexposed 5yo do it
* I found 3 and one of these was very similar
* That horse (Vortex) had a recent run and 16 races
* REBELLIOUS GUEST - His profile is fine
* This is a harder race than his last win though

* TRUE TO FORM is well treated these days
* I looked at 7 year olds from 8f handicaps
* There were 11 winners
* They had absences of 4 5 5 5 7 7 8 13 54 89 129 days
* TRUE TO FORM is absent 14 days
* That matches him to 1 winner
* I'd have loved a more recent run
* There is at least a winner like him
* He is quite well treated as well so a positive

Selection

TRUE TO FORM 8/1 Win Bet

REBELLIOUS GUEST 11/4 Saver


Wolverhampton 3.25

Another race at Wolves that doesn't offer me
much. Horrible frame to this race. A Distinct
lack of track form. I would find it hard to be
on anything else but SILKEN EXPRESS. Her
chance looks obvious. Looks the class horse.
She would be my guess without conviction.

S a n d o w n 3.35

6/1 Soll, 7/1 Ardkilly Witness, 7/1 Jump City
7/1 Pete The Feat, 8/1 On Trend, 8/1 Roalco De Farges
10/1 Fruity O4rooney, 10/1 Hansupfordetroit
10/1 Theatrical Star, 12/1 Relax, 16/1 Ringa Bay.

This is a 3m Handicap Chase. I needed more time
to sort this race out properly. I have always noted
high weights have struggled in this race over the
years. It puts me off the topweight PETE THE FEAT
and SOLL with just 1 run this season. I looked for
horses from Novice Chases. There were 8 winners
but it is interesting those that won last time out do
not score well. So far all 19 lost so I am opposing
ARDKILLY WITNESS who did just that. RELAX and
RINGA BAY don't offer much. HANSUPFORDETROIT
is not for me from a Novice Handicap Chase. I just
felt FRUITY O4ROONEY may fail with a combination
of his age his absence and his weight. ON TREND
could win if he bounces back to form but I wasn't
convinced his last race proved he is coming back.
THEATRICAL STAR may just struggle in this class.

* JUMP CITY - I don't mind his profile
* ROALCO DE FARGES - Huge absence can't rule out

Selection

JUMP CITY 8/1 Win Bet
ROALCO DE FARGES 7/1 Saver Bet


L i n g f i e l d 4.05

7/2 Bertie Blu Boy, 7/1 Perfect Pastime, 8/1 Bold Ring
8/1 Foie Gras, 8/1 Medecis Mountain, 10/1 Black Truffle
11/1 Sea Soldier, 12/1 One Last Dream, 14/1 Alfresco
14/1 Gunning For Glory, 16/1 Gypsy Rider
16/1 My Scat Daddy, 20/1 , 33/1 Clear Loch.

* This is a 7f Apprentice handicap
* Only 34 similar races at this time of year
* I see the following horses as having fitness doubts
* JACKIE LOVE - Mare with 1 run in 98 days
* CLEAR LOCH - One poor runs in 71 days
* SEA SOLDIER - One run in 121 days
* GUNNING FOR GLORY - 1 run since last June
* Hammered just 15 days ago he is wrong
* BLACK TRUFFLE is 4 absent 124 days
* No 4yo won a similar race absent 35 or more days
* MY SCAT DADDY only has 1 run in 11 months
* ALFRESCO - I don't want a 10yo absent a month
* He hasn't had much racing in recent months
* MEDECIS MOUNTAIN won a dreadful race last time
* He's raced just once in 66 days
* Weak connections and Stall 1 may not help
* He's never raced here before. Lots to prove
* GYPSY RIDER - Not keen on his absence
* Limited backclass and not like any winners
* 4 year olds from 6f races were 2-30
* Both winner ran 3 days before
* They were beaten less than a length in their races
* FOIE GRAS does this but was beaten 4 + lengths
* He also has a slightly longer absence
* It's not a perfect profile but neither is it a negative


Shortlist

* PERFECT PASTIME - One of the stronger runners
* His problem will be Stall 14
* I looked at handicaps here since 2012
* Horses drawn 14 have a 0-25 record
* PERFECT PASTIME has the worst of the draw

* BERTIE BLU BOY won a 7f handicap last time
* There were 2 horses aged 6 doing this
* They finished 1st and 2nd
* BERTIE BLU BOY has a decent profile
* Not keen on his level of backclass
* There was an element of fluke about his last run
* Gifted an early lead did flatter him a bit

* ONE LAST DREAM is and drops down from 8f
* I find one winner like him so he is shortlisted
* I wonder if he hasn't been staying a mile
* His brother was unproven over anything but sprint trips
* His Sire is not known for stamina
* ONE LAST DREAM didn't get home over 8f last time
* He set too fast a pace and ran out if petrol
* Look at his previous race at Lingfield over 8f
* Broke well again and set a strong pace in the lead
* She could easily have been 3rd in this race
* She was swamped by several horses in the last 50 yds
* I don't think she got home
* The runner up that day was BERTIE BLU BOY
* ONE LAST DREAM has a big weight pull with him
* I think this drop in trip is just what he needs
* Plenty could go wrong tactically with a front runner
* Despite these doubts his price is worth it

Selection

ONE LAST DREAM 12/1

Each Way

I am staking it this way.

75% of stake to win
25% of stake to place

F f o s L a s 4.20

7/4 Red Devil Lads, 9/4 Copper Birch
3/1 Gorsky Island, 12/1 Kaikias, 16/1 Driving Well
16/1 Spending Time, 20/1 Mountain Cliche
25/1 Castletown, 66/1 Brave Encounter
200/1 Clovers Boy.

* January and Febuary have 55 maiden hurdles over 3m
* COPPER BIRCH comes from a Chase
* In 55 races horses doing this were 0-34
* I wanted a better profile
* MOUNTAIN CLICHE is an unraced 7yo
* These can win but he was only a cheap horse
* RED DEVIL LADS is a 5yo
* He comes from a Novice hurdle short of 2m 4f
* Acceptable profile. Could win but yard struggling
* GORSKY ISLAND is 6 from a 3m Novice hurdle
* He has a months absence and 1 hurdle run
* He was beaten under 8 lengths last time out
* Horses with this profile were 1-1
* just one tried and won (Cannington Brook)
* I think that makes him the selection

Selection

GORSKY ISLAND 2/1

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Best Wishes

Guy Ward

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

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