Mathematician 2682
Tuesday July 25th
6 Previews
1 Staked Bet
First proper message of the week
Happy enough with all 6 previews
A bit more variety than I expected
Given I had appointments yesterday
And some of today's tracks on offer
Are courses I routinely like to avoid
I'm pleasantly surprised about today
The 6 Previews won't win any awards
But they produce interesting issues
Today's Account Bet
Nottingham 6.20
MAY REMAIN 3/1
£4.50 Each Way
1/4 Odds 1-2
£1.00 Saver
JUST FOR FUN 8/1
100/30 Bet365 Skybet Spbet Betbright
100/30 PPower VChandler Betfair
3/1 Other firms
Only 2 Places
But 1/4 the Odds a place
Difficult to find the days best bet
I had more than one option
Despite a penalty I'm hoping this is it
Hoping his extra experience
Means he copes better with conditions
The Saver does make it messier
It was a 50-50 call whether to use one
Caution won the day
Came down to the weight she gets
TODAY'S MESSAGE
Biggest headache today
Was which of 6 bets should be the main bet
And how many should be highlighted
Ballinrobe 2 Previews
Ffos Las 2 Previews
Chelmsford 1 Preview
Nottingham 1 Preview
BALLINROBE offers 2 Maiden Hurdles
Joseph O'Brien has both favourites
I am opposing both of these horses
I do not like going against this Kid
I can't Trust Joseph today
So interesting to see if those angles work
There are 3 similar previews
2 at Ffos Las and 1 at Chelmsford
These are low class flat handicaps
Where the conclusions are similar
Going for the fitter more solid options
In a race where others have problems
There is a 2yo race at Nottingham
Looks like an interesting each way bet
Biggest problem today
Has to be choosing what the best bet is
I like all my previews
The BALLINROBE races
Are particularly hard to stake well
So I am not going to highlight those
Ffos Las 3.00
£8.50 Win Bet NOTHING TO LOSE 9/4
£1.50 Win Bet PEACH MELBA 6/1
Ffos Las 3.30
£4.25 Each Way FRANTICAL 4/1
£1.50 Win Bet ALNASL 6/1
Nottingham 6.20
MAY REMAIN 3/1
£4.50 Each Way
1/4 Odds 1-2
£1.00 Saver
JUST FOR FUN 8/1
Don't like replying on Paul Cole
But decided MAY REMAIN had the best chance
MONDAY'S REVIEW
Technically it was a day off yesterday
One that came with a preview attached
Probably put myself in a no win position
In the end the decision not to bet was right
I did back LAUREATE for a bit of interest
When the horses were in starting Stalls
Stall 10 suddenly looked worryingly wide
He got across and then made the running
That then became a whole new ball game
It probably placed more strain on stamina
It throws up risks of doing too much too early
Then you can always go off too fast as well
All of a sudden a common sense preview
Turns into a race about pace and tactics
LAUREATE ran well and faded into 4th
The Racing Post suggested he didn't stay
That sounds a reasonable assumption
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
FFOS LAS 3.00
11/4 Nothing To Lose, 7/2 Peach Melba, 9/2 Manners Please
7/1 Highway One, 7/1 Many A Tale, 8/1 Satchville Flyer,
9/1 Hidden Oasis 25/1 Mr Andros
7f Handicap for 0-77 rated horses
125 similar races in July
Some of these are unacceptable
I do not want certain 3 year olds
When they have raced just once this season
MANY A TALE is a 3yo filly doing this
No 3yo filly won a similar races with just 1 run
MANNERS PLEASE also has just the 1 recent run
No 3yo with 5 or more runs won with just 1 run
MANNERS PLEASE has more and fails that
MR ANDROS jas a weak profile down 3f in trip
Hammered overt 10f he steps down to 7f today
He is also short of runs this season as well
HIDDEN OASIS is not running very well
Not keen on his aged 6 and up in distance
His unreadable trainer is a law unto himself
HIGHWAY ONE is a 3yo filly from 8 furlongs
Hate her profile with just 3 career starts
Fillies aged 3 from 8f races
Had a 0-19 record with under 5 career starts
I suspect more would have failed if they tried
SATCHVILLE FLYER is far too risky
He is stepping up from 5f to an extended 7f
I'd have doubts about him getting home on soft
PEACH MELBA is a lightly raced 3yo filly
I'd be inclined to give her the benefit of the doubt
Shortlist her because so many others are weak
There are too many negatives to rule her out too
NOTHING TO LOSE has decent numbers
He has a shorter absence than the other runners
3rd in a better race at Leopardstown last time
Not difficult to see him having every chance in this
Selection
£8.50 Win Bet NOTHING TO LOSE 9/4
£1.50 Win Bet PEACH MELBA 6/1
FFOS LAS 3.30
7/4 Blankiedoodie, 4/1 Alnasl, 9/2 Frantical, 6/1 Beatisa
12/1 Go On Mayson, 14/1 Bianca Minola, Turnbury
20/1 Primrose Place 25/1 Beast.
10f Handicap
Might be a race suitable for an each way bet
There is weakness in the front and back of the race
BLANKIEDOODIE is at the front of the betting
He is a 4yo with just 1 run in 2017
There is some weakness in that profile
I would not argue he is a strong negative
But he has some statistical vulnerability
No male 4 year olds won similar races
With just 1 run that year unless lighter raced
He could win but it is not a safer enough profile
Some of the outsiders look vulnerable
GO ON MAYSON has stamina concerns
BIANCA MINOLA has form/fitness problems
BEAST does not offer enough
BEATISA is a 3yo filly
She has 157 days off the track
With just 3 runs no winners were similar
Handicaps in July
Any Distance
Run in 0-69 Class and lower
Horses aged 3 taking on older horses
Absent more than 88 days
Show a 0-95 record since 2006
BEATISA has this 0-95 problem
TURNBURY just lacks positives right now
Not enough encouragement form recent runs
Safer profiles
ALNASL
FRANTICAL
I like FRANTICAL's profile
Recent runs and fitter than most
Selection
£4.25 Each Way FRANTICAL 4/1
£1.50 Win Bet ALNASL 6/1
BALLINROBE 5.40
9/4 Billy's Angel, 5/2 Spin A Yarn, 7/2 English Pale
6/1 Skeaping, 13/2 Artiste Celebre, 16/1 Vermeulen,
50/1 Dark Du Tabert AA, 66/1 Harry Smiles
100/1 Leah's Little Star, Presenting Court.]
2m 1f Maiden hurdle
123 similar races in July
SPIN A YARM has a weak profile
I want to take him on but his stable are flying
Despite that his profile was unlikable
July Maiden Hurdles
Run short of 2m 3f
If you look at 4 year olds
Running within 4 months
Under 7 career starts
There is a 0-100 record
SPIN A YARN shares this 0-100 profile
I couldn't bet him at a short price
VERMEULEN didn't do enough last time
I feel the same about SKEAPING
He is a flat bred that is hard to like
Shortlist
ENGLISH PALE is a 4yo
Comes from the Flat but has Hurdle form
Thats not too bad a profile
His numbers are enough to shortlist him
But his sires hurdlers are only 1-32
ARTISTE CELEBRE is promising
Positive aspects to his profile
Comes here with a good recent run
Having had a stable upgrade as well
BILLYS ANGEL is a player as well
I could bet any of these each way
Lots of selection saver combinations
That make staking this a headache
Limited scope for an each way bet
And two savers at the same time
Selection
£7.00 Win Bet BILLYS ANGEL 3/1
£1.50 Win Bet ENGLISH PALE 7/2
£1.50 Win Bet ARTISTE CELEBRE 6/1
CHELMSFORD 6.00
9/4 Anna Medici, 5/1 Kiribati, 13/2 Royal Peace,
7/1 Black Truffle 8/1 Lady Morel, 10/1 Breaking Free
10/1 Caledonian Gold, 16/1 Cookie Ring, Humour,
20/1 Noble Act, 25/1 Artsteelwork, 33/1 Golden Harbour.
Handicap over 7f
Poor quality horses ridden by Apprentices
If ANNA MEDICI wins this
She will have to do that busting a statistic
Horses aged 3 of both sexes
Dropping down from a mile
Under 5 career starts
Running within 87 days
Have a 0-47 record in similar races
She is a 3yo filly and has just 4 runs
Being a Mark Prescott horse shortens her price
She could win and probably is capable of improvement
But so far none like her have done at this time of year
Handicaps in July
Any Distance
Run in 0-69 Class and lower
Horses aged 3 taking on older horses
Absent more than 88 days
Show a 0-95 record since 2006
LADY MOREL has this 0-95 problem
KIRIBATI looks a far safer option
I looked at similar 3 year olds with recent runs
I can find winners like him
he does just seem generally disappointing though
So I am looking at him more as a part staked bet
Enough on him to make a decent profit
More of a saver though with another option
ROYAL PEACE has slightly better numbers
If he can be forgiven his Brighton run
He has just as good a chance of winning this
He has to do that from Stall 11
But my draw stats don't see that as a bad draw
Selection
£3.50 Each Way ROYAL PEACE 8/1
£3.00 Win Bet KIRIBATI 5/1
NOTTINGHAM 6.20
4/5 Ginbar, 3/1 May Remain, 6/1 Just For Fun
12/1 Savannah's Show, 16/1 Shades Of Mist
25/1 The Golden Cue, 33/1 Odds On Oli.
5f Novice for 2 year olds
GINBAR raced once 10 days ago
MAY REMAIN has 5 runs the last 11 days ago
Both have the ability to win this
GINBAR did a Racing Post Rating of 80
MAY REMAIN has beaten that
But has had more attempts at doing that
The Assumption the market is making
Is they GINBAR will improve past May Remain
But 8/11 is very short to find out
And on profiles there is a better choice
5f Novices in July
Male horses
Coming from 5f races
Running in the last 14 days
Horses with 1 run have a 0-3 record
GINBAR fails this 0-3 profile
Horses with 5 runs had a W W profile
MAY REMAIN has that W W profile
Not the most compelling of angles
But with a very recent run
MAY REMAIN may have too much
Could be too strong
Could be too Streetwise
JUST FOR FUN should improve
Has a lot of ground to make up though
7 runners
Not ideal but it is 1/4 the odds
I have to go with this bet
Selection
Nottingham 6.20
MAY REMAIN 3/1
£4.50 Each Way
1/4 Odds 1-2
£1.00 Saver
JUST FOR FUN 8/1
BALLINROBE 7.10
5/2 Major Destination, Treasure Chest, 3/1 Westland Row,
4/1 Foxearth, 9/1 Riverrainshine, 40/1 Vinnie Luck
66/1 Lambs Lane.
2m 6f Novice Hurdle
TREASURE CHEST is quite sexy
Joseph O'Brien and well backed
But he is only a 4 year old
He comes up from a 2m hurdle race
That is a 6f step up in distance
Only 1 horse has ever won with this profile
And that horse won last time out and he didn't
Novice Hurdles over 2m 6f or more
Any and Every month of the year
4 year olds
Coming from 2m Hurdles
Have a 1-44 record
The only winner was Leo Luna
He won his previous race and had less runs
Win lose or draw this is not a safe profile
RIVERRAINSHINE would not be 1st choice
Not as a 7yo coming up 6f in distance
FOXEARTH ran abysmally last time
He could bounce back it is hard to know
Unreliable but a potential spoiler of any bet
WESTLAND ROW can't be ruled out
But from a 2m 1f hurdle his profile is not strong
MAJOR DESTINATION looked safer
Only 7 runners though and no each way
I am playing it this way
Selection
£8 Win Bet MAJOR DESTINATION 3/1
£2 Win Bet WESTLAND ROW 3/1
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Best Wishes
Guy Ward
www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk