Mathematician 2268
Friday July 24th


0 Account Bet
0 Selection
1 Profile & Preview bets
0 Negatives
7 Races Discussed


We start the descent into the weekend and
we do so with heavy rain today in the south
so time to buckle up as there will no doubt
be some turbulence and care will is needed.

My form has been simply class recently. I'm
getting very little wrong and the top of the
message has this swagger about it but that
can all evaporate in a heartbeat so no point
in being over confident. It will be extremely
interesting to see if we can keep this form
up over the weekend and into next week.

Profile & Preview Bet

Win Bet and Saver

Uttoxeter 1.40

MRS JORDAN 7/2 Win Bet

FLOWER POWER 5/1 Saver Bet

Staked to £10

£8 WIn MRS JORDAN 7/2

£2 Saver FLOWER POWER 5/1 +


Mrs Jordan

4/1 PPower VC William Hill
7/2 Skybet Tote Betfred Spbet Ladb Corals


T o d a y s M e s s a g e

It has been a horrible message to compile today.
Mixture of a few technical problems with internet
connections and knowing the awful weather was
bound to change the shape of many races. There
is also a temptation these days on a Friday to see
Saturdays message as more important and that's
difficult to avoid much as this should not happen.


Uttoxeter 1.40

MRS JORDAN 4/1

This mares maiden hurdle was always going to
be the race I could not avoid. MRS JORDAN is
a long way from a solid profile. She leaves me
cold to be honest but every danger has got an
awful profile. She is the only horse in the race
that I can give any chances to. I detest it when
this happens because if MRS JORDANS then
loses and she has just pulled up in her last 2
races albeit over fences - then we get both a
loser and a statbuster and when I am looking
at a similar race in a few days time my angles
are weaker. Very annoying but I feel I have to
go with her as the only possible horse to bet.


I did consider looking for an alternative bet

I had options if I was prepared to take risks

Newmarket 7.40

Mishghar was an option at 100/30
There are big risks in betting in this race
More is explained later so I shall leave it.
This would be inviting trouble


The 1.50 Ascot also interested me
I just haven't made a convincing enough case


A lot of my negatives in this message are similar
Not sure they are built on solid enough foundations.
This is a day full of smoke and mirrors

In the end I decided to commit to the 1.40

But rather than go each way
Just in case she has a physical problem
I would go win bet and saver

I will oppose the favourite

Bet MRS JORDAN as a win Bet
And have a saver on FLOWER POWER

She at least has some hurdling experience

D a i l y N e g a t i v e s

No Bet Today

Results of Negatives

17 correct bets from 19


T h u r s d a y s S u m m a r y

I had a no bet message yesterday just to take
off a bit of pressure and buy some time and it
produced the 3 race message finishing W P L.

Not unhappy with that given low expectations
especially as my nominated best bet managed
to win as well. That was as much as I wanted.

P r o f i l e & P r e v i e w s


U t t o x e t e r 1.40

6/4 Princess Roania, 9/2 Flower Power, 5/1 Mrs Jordan
8/1 Midnight Memories, 8/1 Pretty Rose, 14/1 Honey Brown
16/1 Housewives Choice, 20/1 Alys Rock, 33/1 Falcon´s Legend
33/1 Hooray Hebe.

This is a 2m 4f MARES MAIDEN HURDLE
Some thought provoking angles in this race

All Non Handicap Hurdle races for Mares
Run in June July August over 2m 1f or more
There are 150 of these races during these 3 months
This Includes all maiden and novice hurdles for mares

Horses aged 4 won 16 of these races
This is how many previous hurdle runs these 16 winners had
5 7 3 8 5 12 10 1 3 4 4 3 3 4 7 11
15 of the 16 winners aged 4 had at least 3 hurdle runs
Horses aged 4 with under 3 hurdle runs were just 1-122
The only winner was Alpine Breeze in 2010

PRINCESS ROANIA fails this 1-122 statistic
FLOWER POWER fails this 1-122 statistic
HOUSEWIVES CHOICE fails this 1-122 statistic
HONEY BROWN fails this 1-122 statistic

PRINCESS ROANIA is 4 and comes from a bumper
No 4yo winner did that in any of the 150 races
HONEY BROWN has the same problem as well
FLOWER POWER is unsafe aged 4 with 1 hurdle run

Horses aged 4 with no hurdle runs were 0-49
HOUSEWIVES CHOICE is rejected failing this
HONEY BROWN is rejected failing this

This is another interesting Statistic
Every Mares Novice and Maiden Hurdle
2m 1f or longer
Any time of year
4 or more runners in the race
Horses aged 4
Coming from a Bumper
Running within 100 days
Horses with this profile were just 1-194
PRINCESS ROANIA fails this 1-194 stat
HONEY BROWN fails this 1-194 stat
The only winner was Bens Turn back in 2010
She won a Novice Hurdle not a maiden Hurdle
That horse went W W W in Bumpers and was unbeaten
PRINCESS ROANIA and HONEY BROWN lost last time
If we look solely at Maiden Hurdles like this
Then horses aged 4 from bumpers
Running within 100 days were 0-68

PRETTY ROSE has a poor profile from a bumper
Look at horses beaten in Bumpers last time
Those that were aged 5 were just 1-100
Those that ran within 4 weeks were 0-81
PRETTY ROSE fails both those angles
HOORAY HEBE is wrong as an unraced horse
FALCON´S LEGEND hasn't done enough yet
ALYS ROCK is very hard to like
Just 1 hurdle run and thrashed at 66/1 in that
I don't see her improving enough in just 12 days
MIDNIGHT MEMORIES does not offer much
She was a 100/1 when hammered last time
Huge prices in all hurdle runs and none appeal

This leaves MRS JORDAN
She has Pulled up in two recent Chases
It is a very neutral profile
Only 1 horse under 25/1 ran with this profile
That horse (Our Guardian Angel) was 2nd
She does at least have plenty of hurdling experience
Clearly she is not enjoying Chasing
She needs to return to form back over hurdles
Very hard to know how likely that might be
Statistically she is the only bet I can go with

Selection

MRS JORDAN 7/2 Win Bet

FLOWER POWER 5/1 Saver Bet

A s c o t 1.50

5/2 Dawn Of Hope, 4/1 Porta Rosa
6/1 Light Up Our World, 6/1 Marenko, 6/1 Peru
10/1 Calliope, 10/1 Summer Icon, 14/1 Touch Of Color
20/1 Karisma.

This is a 7f maiden for fillies
Most of these are unraced
I just want to suggest an experiment

Thats to leave an in running Lay at odds on
I want to try and lay DAWN OF HOPE
But I only want to do it at a very short price
Just not sure she will stay 7f first time out

Horses sired by Mastercraftsman
Unraced running over 7f or more
There is a 3-75 record with these horses
Those that were fillies were 1-37
That sole winner cam on the sand
Those fillies that raced on Grass were 0-27
No filly from this sire has won first time over 7f + on turf

This may mean nothing at all
I just want to try and get him beaten
The 7f at Ascot is very stiff
They finish 23 yards higher than they start
That shows it is very testing and uphill
I would worry DAWN OF HOPE may not stay

LIGHT OF HOPE may not stay either on her debut
SUMMER ICON did a 58 (Racing Post Rating) 1st time
I'd want more than that on a Grade 1 track
Factor in that she cost just £800 and she is ou

Selection

Option 1

Lay DAWN OF HOPE in running at Odds On
You will have to choose how short you want to go
I am going to see if I can get her beaten at 1.60
I am also going to lay her in running at 1.01 1.02 1.03
If the bets are not matched it won't cost anything


Option 2

PORTA ROSA each way makes superficial appeal
It can only be a guess as she is unraced
I can't get MARENKO out of my head either
Ridiculously green on her debut
She was favourite on a Grade 1 track though
I am going to split stake these

£4 Each Way MARENKO 8/1

£2 Win PORTA ROSA 5/1


A s c o t 2.55

7/2 Seamour, 6/1 High Secret, 6/1 Le Maitre Chat
7/1 Rite To Reign, 8/1 Hassle, 9/1 Havisham
10/1 Highland Castle, 11/1 Purple Spectrum
14/1 Buckland, 16/1 Cinnilla, 16/1 Times Up
25/1 Barbican, 25/1 Sunblazer.

* This is a Class 2 handicap over 2m
* There are 21 similar races in July
* Complicated race not least on breeding stats
* I looked at the record of sires in this race
* Looking at their offsprings 2m + record in Class 2 +
* I would oppose the following on breeding stats
* SUNBLAZER - BUCKLAND - CINNILLA
* There are many "Borderline" calls here
* PURPLE SPECTRUM is one one these
* His sires record is 0-3 over 2m + in Class 2 +
* Not easy to rule him out on a 0-3 statistic
* That said he has a tough weight in this race
* Horses with 9st 7lbs or more are 0-43
* TIMES UP - HASSLE don't appeal with highweights
* HIGH SECRET - His draw in stall 11 worries me
* His breeding stats come out as just 1-38 as well
* Maybe a mistake but I am leaving him

* LE MAITRE CHAT - Breeding stats are a worry
* His runners are 0-24 over 14f or more
* He's shown he stays 2m in slightly weaker grade
* If you bet him there is a big risk he wont stay here

Shortlist

* SEAMOUR is a neutral
* HAVISHAM has a mixed profile. Saver material maybe.
* RITE TO REIGN - No strong objections

Selection

RITE TO REIGN 5/1

Each Way

Down Royal 6.15

11/4 Roibeard, 3/1 Dodgybingo, 4/1 Prairie Wind
9/2 Ms Brinkleys, 10/1 Set To Fire, 12/1 An Droichead
14/1 Smiling Emily, 20/1 Charms Bracelet
20/1 Was Asleep.

I had 3 negatives here
Two sadly have drifted out to huge prices
These were An Droichead and Smiling Emily
My best negative is MS BRINKLEYS
This sires unraced 2 year olds are just 1-72
Those that run over 6f or more like her are 0-52
PRAIRIE WIND wouldn't be a safe bet to stay
Not on her debut over 7f by Zoffany
Difficult to judge with an unraced horse 2nd favourite
Dodgybingo has 2 runs which may help
40/1 last time though. Doesn't inspire me

SET TO FIRE is one I'd keep on side
Not an impossible profile to like
Stable in form as well
I will take a chance/guess on him

Selection

SET TO FIRE 12/1

Each WAY


Y o r k 7.00

9/4 Mohab, 7/2 Hyland Heather, 5/1 Discreet Hero
11/2 New Caledonia, 6/1 Lytham St Annes, 7/1 My Valentino
10/1 Navajo War Dance, 20/1 Compton Sky.

This is a 2yo maiden over 7f
MOHAB is an unraced Kevin Ryan horse
This trainer is unsafe with 2yo debutants
Unraced 2 year olds over 7f or more
Trained by Kevin Ryan
Since 1998 they have a poor 4-127 record
Thats just 1 in every 33 managing to win
None of them have won at York before (0-8)
His record at this time of year is dreadful as well
Unraced Kevin Ryan 2 year olds over 7f or more
They are 0-10 in June
They are 0-24 in July
They are 1-33 in August
During these 3 months they are 1-67
This suggests MOHAB may need a run

I don't like trusting trainer stats
With an each way bet we have some cover
The Stat can fail yet we can still get out of trouble
NEW CALEDONIA was beaten too far 11 days ago
I'm against the unraced COMPTON SKY
NAVAJO WAR DANCE is also rejected first time out
I looked at horses like LYTHAM ST ANNES
Male horses with 1 previous run over 6f
Absent between 10 and 20 days
Those beaten 10 or more lengths were 1-93
LYTHAM ST ANNES's profile isn't safe enough
I think one of these should be the bet

Shortlist

MY VALENTINO
DISCREET HERO
HYLAND HEATHER

DISCREET HERO is my preference
Normally I'd go for a better stable
Unusually expensive for a stable like this

Selection

DISCREET HERO 9/2

Each Way

N e w m a r k e t 7.40

11/10 Mark Hopkins, 7/4 Mishghar
11/2 Fast Pick, 10/1 Duke Of Diamonds
25/1 Dainty Daisey, 25/1 Green Nomad.

The weather makes it hard to commit to this
It is a 12f maiden with 6 runners
I have FAST PICK not like a winner
She steps up from 7f to 12f
DUKE OF DIAMONDS doesn't interest me
Hard to see him getting 12f on his debut

My problem was with MARK HOPKINS
Do I want a once raced horse by Mount Nelson
Will he have enough to stay 12f on his debut
Statistically it is complicated
I can tell you all male horses by this sire
That raced over 12f or more
Were 0-28 when having under 5 career starts
MARK HOPKINS only has 1 run
There was a filly that did it though with 1 run
That was on sand but she still did it
Hard to know just how strong this sire stat is

I had two thoughts here
MISHGHAR was the only horse I liked
He cost a bomb and I liked his chance
That said there were 2 issues against him
I can't actually find a winner like him
That doesn't bother me in this race
The other problem is his price
Why is he 100/30 when he should be 13/8
That may come down to more worrying factors
Is he being handicapped on his 3rd run ?
I don't know - but I'd have put him in as 13/8 fav
Aware there may be things I can't know
Quite prepared to look a mug in going for him
But MISHGHAR is the only horse I can fancy here

Selection

MISHGHAR 100/30

Win Bet

Chepstow 8.55

I have Shifting Moon as unlikely to stay
Especially if rain gets into the ground
Hard to nail down a safe alternative
I prefer GOLDSLINGER who is my choice

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