Mathematician 1831
2 Account Bets
Newbury 1.30
WESTAWAY 6/1
Each Way
Doncaster 3.30
HARRY THE VIKING 7/1 Win Bet
GOLDEN CALL 9/1 Saver Bet
M e s s a g e H i g h l i g h t s
Today's message is about the following 6 selections
and trying to find the best strategy to stake a full bet.
Lingfield 1.10 - YOUR GIFTED 9/4 Win Bet
Newbury 1.30 - WESTAWAY 6/1 Each Way
Lingfield 1.40 - BELLE BAYARDO 5/1 Each Way
Navan 2.00 - HALLINGS TREASURE 4/5 Win Bet
Doncaster 3.30 - HARRY THE VIKING 7/1 Each Way
Lingfield 4.00 - TAAJUB 7/2 Win Bet
Easy to avoid HALLINGS TREASURE at a short price
and there is no way I am going to make him the bet.
I don't want to stake BELLE BAYARDO as he has two
big dangers and I could have gone with any of them
with savers or various options and that is too messy.
YOUR GIFTED and TAJUB are interesting. I like both
but we are at the mercy of traffic and luck in running.
I think there is a good case to combine these horses
Lingfield 1.10 - YOUR GIFTED 9/4
Lingfield 4.00 - TAAJUB 7/2
Win Bet on Both Horses
Each Way Double on Both
I love HARRY THE VIKING's chance. I suppose we are
having to rely on horse and trainer to get him back to
form. Not sure last time out is enough to prove that but
his poor previous form is completely understandable
and I think Paul Nicholls has campaigned him badly.
It might have been better to back him but take away
some of the risks involved by combing him alongside
WESTAWAY in the Newbury 1.30 in the same sort of bet.
Newbury 1.30 - WESTAWAY 6/1
Doncaster 3.30 - HARRY THE VIKING 7/1
Win Bet on Both Horses
Each Way Double on Both
I did consider going with the above 2 account bets
rather than WESTAWAY and HARRY THE VIKING as
each way singles. Pro's and Con's with both options.
In the end I went with simplicity.
M e s s a g e C o n t e n t
Quieter Saturday with only 6 previews today
but they all have selections I like and these
are the races I thought offered us most of all.
There was no early closing race this week so
it does have a Pre Cheltenham Feel to it and
that's to be expected. I can't be bothered with
the small field races that are badly framed so
the plan today is to attack just a few races.
Y e s t e r d a y 's S u m m a r y
Yesterday's Message was all low key business
with no account bet. It started well then hit the
skids before finishing well. It will have suited
those that followed it though to the end as the
results went W L L L L L W W W and it was an
excellent finish to a mail that collapsed a little
half way through. It's been stop start all week
with my Father seriously ill in Hospital so this
will go down as a disruptive week that could
not be avoided. Thanks for all your patience.
P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S
L i n g f i e l d 1.10
7/2 Volcanic Dust, 9/2 Your Gifted, 6/1 Dishy Guru
6/1 Dissent, 6/1 Ishetoo, 10/1 College Doll
10/1 Green Millionaire 12/1 Sarah Berry, 14/1 Outbid
14/1 Spic ´n Span.
This is a 0-55 handicap over 5f as some poor horses
battle it out over the minimum trip. Not a significant
draw bias. The two horses with the longest absence
in this race are both are 5yo mares. COLLEGE DOLL
and SARAH BERRY have plenty to do without much
backclass and I don't like either. OUTBID looks hard
to fancy on current form. SPIC ´N SPAN is not in his
prime form at the moment and has never won here
before. GREEN MILLIONAIRE is struggling and might
have some problems his trainer has yet to sort out if
his recent runs are anything to go by. DISHY GURU's
got the backclass to win this but there are plenty of
question marks about him. I would have preferred a
more recent run for starters. His trainer doesn't score
well and the horse has never ran over 5f before after
31 career starts. Trained by M Blanshard I could not
give him the benefit of the doubt. ISHETOO is now a
10 year old and although there were winners his age
and I can't make him a negative his R.P. Ratings are
modest and I have to go back to 2011 to find one that
I think would win this race. I don't think he will win.
Shortlist
DISSENT is unsafe and unorthodox as a 5yo with just
9 runs and as he's recently been thrashed in a seller
there are flaws in his profile. That said he's recently
been Gelded and has ran in better company in the
past. There's also a small upgrade in stable to factor
in and he's suffered from some poor draws recently.
If DISSENT runs his race he should be competitive.
* VOLCANIC DUST - Ignore her last run when last
* She suffered an injury with the starting stalls
* YOUR GIFTED would destroy these on old form
* She missed 2012 through injury
* She hasn't yet found that 2012 form
* Her numbers are getting progressively better though
* Her performances have suggested she could win soon
* Down in Class she looks one of the strongest runners
Selection
YOUR GIFTED 9/4
Win Bet
N e w b u r y 1.30
7/2 Red Devil Lads, 9/2 Castletown, 6/1 Kings Bayonet
6/1 Westaway, 7/1 Premier Portrait, 8/1 Torero
10/1 Minella Definitely, 10/1 What An Oscar
16/1 Pilgreen, 25/1 Bangkok Pete.
* This is a 2m 5f handicap hurdle
* Newbury has 17 renewals of this race
* Looks a tough race but 1 angle stood out to me
* Horses from Novice or Maiden Hurdles
* They had a 0-28 record in the 17 past renewals
* This race has never gone to a horse doing this
* CASTLETOWN fails this and I'm opposing him
* He has Topweight and just 2 hurdle runs from a small yard
* KINGS BAYONET comes from a Novice Hurdle
* He is also a seasonal debutant absent 646 days
* None of the 17 winners were absent more than 93 days
* I don't want him absent that long with 11st 12lbs
* RED DEVIL LADS comes from a Maiden hurdle
* We know all 28 horses from non handicaps lost
* TORERO also fails this 0-28 statistic
* If this 0-28 record holds the above horses should fail
* BANGKOK PETE has ran badly twice this season
* Not enough evidence of form and fitness
* PILGREEN comes out badly
* I don't want a 9yo from a 2m hurdle with 1 run this season
* WHAT AN OSCAR has a 76 day break
* It's actually more than that really
* He has fallen at the first fence in his last 2 runs
* They were over fences and this looks a confidence booster
* It's a tough absence for a horse with 21 hurdle runs already
* PREMIER PORTRAIT drops down from over 3 miles
* I looked at similar horses with under 6 runs
* Not a strong record and none did it his age or older
* I found 2 horses aged 6 with 6 hurdle runs winning
* He is a 7yo with just 4 hurdle runs
* PREMIER PORTRAIT - Not a negative but not quite right
Shortlist
* MINELLA DEFINITELY has been struggling over fences
* Hard to read I would keep him onside
* Horses from fences have won this race twice before
* WESTAWAY has a good solid all round profile
Selection
WESTAWAY 6/1
Each Way
L i n g f i e l d 1.40
3/1 Rose Garnet, 3/1 Welsh Inlet, 9/2 Catalinas Diamond
6/1 Belle Bayardo, 8/1 Demoiselle Bond, 10/1 Renoir´s Lady
14/1 Loyal Royal, 20/1 Microlight, 20/1 Sherjawy
33/1 Sweet Piccolo.
* This is a 6f Handicap for 0-55 rated horses
* ROSE GARNET left me cold in this race
* Horses have won from Stall 1 like her but it's not ideal
* I looked at Mares aged 5 or more from 5f races
* Those running within 6 weeks were just 1-38
* That winner was less exposed than she is
* ROSE GARNET has holes in her profile and a weak draw
* LOYAL ROYAL also comes from a 5f race
* No winners did that aged 11 or more like him
* None managed it aged 9 without a run within 7 days
* LOYAL ROYAL is not like any winners
* SWEET PICCOLO doesn't offer enough
* SHERJAWY - Not first choice as a 10yo
* MICROLIGHT has a poor strike rate and looks modest
* RENOIR´S LADY - No statistical objections to her
* I wanted a more recent race though
* Not convinced she has found form or fitness after a break
* DEMOISELLE BOND faces similar problems
* She's also an older mare without big statistical problems
* Just 4 runs in the last 10 months worries me
* Not convinced she is close enough to her best yet
Shortlist
* CATALINAS DIAMOND is a mare down in distance
* I found a winner like her and this is her grade
* WELSH INLET is fit and running well
* Just a matter of time before she wins over this trip
* BELLE BAYARDO is on a losing run of 24
* Has ability and shaped well from bad draw last time
Selection
BELLE BAYARDO 5/1
Each Way
N a v a n 2.00
10/11 Halling´s Treasure, 4/1 Kitten Rock, 11/2 Kahdian
7/1 Streak 8/1 Black Ice, 10/1 Shutter Island,
16/1 Our Manekineko, 20/1 Ebony Roc, 33/1 De Danu´s Bach
33/1 Togoville, 50/1 Achtung, 50/1 Todd´s Captain.
This is a Maiden Hurdle over 2 Miles. I would not want
to oppose HALLINGS TREASURE. He is odds on around
4/5. He placed in all 3 hurdle runs but two of them were
behind top class horses and he's been unlucky to bump
into 3 horses who have gone on to run in Graded Class.
His market danger Kitten Rock is unraced over hurdles
so I'd have to side with HALLINGS TREASURE experience.
Selection
HALLINGS TREASURE 4/5
Win Bet
D o n c a s t e r 3.30
9/2 Court By Surprise, 11/2 Monbeg Dude, 13/2 Golden Call
13/2 Harry The Viking, 9/1 Godsmejudge, 9/1 Real Milan
10/1 Mon Parrain, 10/1 Night In Milan, 12/1 Mart Lane
12/1 Storm Survivor, 14/1 Renard, 14/1 Wayward Prince.
* The Grimthorpe Chase is a Handicap over 3m 2f
* I looked at this and all 42 similar races in February and March
* The class of the race has changed over the years
* Lightweights have the best recent record in this race
* The higher weighted horses worry me
* Especially as they all have absences
* I looked at horses absent more than 7 weeks
* Those that carried more than 11st weight were only 2-72
* Those in that record with 7 or more chase runs were 0-48
* WAYWARD PRINCE fails this absent 84 days with 11st 12lbs
* GODSMEJUDGE also fails this statistic
* He has 84 days off and 11st 10lbs with 9 Chase runs
* I thought he had a tough handicap mark anyway
* MONBEG DUDE also combines a high weight and absence
* He also fails that 0-48 statistic with 10 Chase runs
* I would worry about the ground with him
* He has shown all his best form on undulating tracks as well
* This Flat track on Good ground may not suit
* MON PARRAIN also has a tough weight and absence
* Horses absent 50 + days with over 11st are 2-72
* We know those with 7 or more chase starts were 0-48
* MON PARRAIN fails this with 11st 6lbs and 120 days off
* He is the only horse with just 1 run this season
* Stable are top class but my angles say no
* MART LANE flopped last time. This may be too warm
* RENARD is hard to fancy over this distance
* NIGHT IN MILAN pulled up last time out
* He needs a career best after a poor last run
* COURT BY SURPRISE has 84 days absence to overcome
* There were 7 winners absent 50 or more days
* Those with more than 9 previous Chase runs were 2-57
* COURT BY SURPRISE shares this 2-57 profile
* Both winners had less weight than he does
* One of them won this race in 2009 with 10st
* Both winners came from better class races as well
* Top class jockey he could easily deliver
* His profile though is hardly impressive
Shortlist
* STORM SURVIVOR - 14 Chase starts is a bit exposed
* Only a handful of winners won with 13 or more chase runs
* Only 1 of these was under 10 years old like him
* He will like the ground and is a potential winner
* There are a couple of better profiles though
* GOLDEN CALL is 10 and won last time out
* I looked at similar 10 year olds with 5-6-7 Chase runs
* There was an encouraging 2-7 record with these horses
* The 2010 winner of this race (Wogan) had this profile
* He did come from a Novice Handicap chase though
* GOLDEN CALL has to be shortlisted
* REAL MILAN is an unexposed 9yo with 8 Chase runs
* Past winners had 7 11 6 7 17 9 23 9 5 previous chase runs
* I looked at 9 year olds absent a month
* Those with 6-10 previous Chase runs
* There was a 3-7 record with similar horses
* 2 won last time and he was only second
* Despite that I see him as a strong runner
* Was considered as a potential saver
* HARRY THE VIKING is very well treated
* He was 2nd in the 2012 4 mile NH Chase at Cheltenham
* He completely lost his form after that
* It was only last time out he showed anything
* That was in a small field when 3rd at Doncaster
* The issue is whether he has found his form now
* His profile is certainly good enough to shortlist
* On paper he lost his form but I feel that was understandable
* He had 6 bad runs since his NH Chase second in 2012
* I think he has genuine excuses in most of those
* He is by a Sire who is 0-34 with his runners at 3m 4f +
* I've been opposing horses by Sir Harry Lewis over 28f + all year
* He probably didn't stay in the 2012 Scottish National
* He then lost as a seasonal debutant at Cheltenham Nov 2012
* That was over 3m 4f further than any his sire have bred to win
* He was hardly going to win the 2012 Hennessy 2 weeks later
* Not after a poor seasonal debut when unlikely to be fit
* His next run was in the 2013 Kim Muir at Cheltenham
* I had him as a big negative that day failing Generic Statistics
* HARRY THE VIKING then pulled up in the 2013 Grand National
* He was never going to stay in that race
* His next run December 2013 was after 8 months absence
* He was statistically weak that day as well
* His only other run was last time out when running well
* Strikes me he has very good excuses in recent seasons
* HARRY THE VIKING must be considered a big threat here
* He looks throw in off bottomweight and just 129
Selection
HARRY THE VIKING 7/1 Each Way
GOLDEN CALL 10/1 Saver Bet
L i n g f i e l d 4.00
100/30 Taajub, 5/1 Silken Express, 8/1 Addictive Dream
8/1 Ballista, 8/1 Diamond Charlie,
8/1 Woolfall Sovereign, 10/1 Picansort, 10/1 Ubetterbegood
16/1 Swiss Cross.
* This is a Class 2 Handicap over 5f
* February and March only had 14 similar races
* Small sample size so not much to go on
* BALLISTA does not look thrown in off his mark
* Coming from a Listed race isn't a safe preparation
* I can see the case down in class for BALLISTA
* I can see how he has showed lots of early speed over 6f
* However I looked at all horses trying to do what he is
* I looked at every Class 2 handicap in February and March
* Thats every Class 2 handicap over any distance
* I looked at horses that came from Listed races in the last 3 months
* There was a 2-67 record with these horses
* None of them won at 5f or 6f
* Those aged 6 or more like him were 0-29
* WOOLFALL SOVEREIGN is older than every winner
* He doesn't look ready to win at the moment
* UBETTERBEGOOD ran quite well last time
* He is unorthodox and wouldn't be my first choice
* Not with just 1 run in the last 73 days
* DIAMOND CHARLIE finished behind Taajub last time
* He is 0-15 in Class 3 or higher
* I don't like him stepping up 2 grades in class
* PICANSORT also comes up two grades in class
* He has never won off his current rating
* He has never won in this class before either
* PICANSORT may just find one too good for him
* SILKEN EXPRESS is a mare
* None of the 14 winners were mares
* Only 8 tried though and its a small sample size
* She has a career high mark and has no Lingfield form
* She could win but she is unproven in various areas
* SWISS CROSS has never won off his current mark
* I oppose him last time with 1 run in only 9 months
* He has 2 runs now. Not sure thats enough.
* ADDICTIVE DREAM is a 7 year old
* With just 1 run in the last 65 days I wasn't convinced
* Stall 1 is far from being a help to him anyway
* TAAJUB won a 0-85 handicap last time
* This 0-102 race is two grades higher
* His record in Class 3 or higher is just 1-27
* That doesn't pain a true picture though
* He has more than enough ability on his 2012 form
* He won with something in hand last time
* I think he is the safest choice today
Selection
TAAJUB 7/2
****************************************************
****************************************************
Best Wishes
Guy Ward
www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Check For Best Prices at http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/odds/horses
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------
This is an old sample message from our horse racing advisory service.
Would you like a copy of our betting analysis for next Saturday?
For more information see here Saturday Horse Racing Tips