This is a copy of our Saturday Message From Nov 9th

It is provided here to provide you with a sample of message style.

Out of interest with regards to the two firm bets Majorites lost us money finishing just one spot of a place.

Standing Ovation however won well.
It actually got heavily backed on course from 4/1 opening show to 5/2 SP.
Clients here of course got it much earlier in the day when 5/1 or more was obtainable.

I have also pegged onto the end of this Guy's review of Saturday from his Sunday message.

For no good reason other than to give the self thinkers and researchers amongst you a
possible rough zone of interest to investigate with his comments re using
racing post ratings as an a assessment tool in certain races.

 


 

 

Mathematician 1727

2 Bet Todays

Doncaster 12.40

MAJORITIES 9/2 +

Each Way


Wincanton 2.40

STANDING OVATION 5/1

Win Bet


We have had just one bet this week and that won.
Profit of 3 points at Starting Price or 4 points if you
took early prices. I am reinvesting 2 points today a
difficult thing for me to do. There is always a risk
we could give some midweek winnings back on a
Saturday. That will upset me but at least we have
that profit banked this week. I could have had four
bets. There are 4 bets in "Message Highlights" and
whilst I have made two account bets I intend to bet
all four of these horses. I could easily have chosen
the wrong ones. That's a risk you can never avoid.


Message Content

Last day of the Flat Season. We have about 14 races
today and they have taken me into some fascinating
areas. As ever with a Saturday a high strike rate has
to be unlikely given the nature of the races. We don't
hide away with just one race mentioned. The neck is
always on the Block with multiple races discussed. It
is never easy to pick the right ones on a Saturday but
I have options I'm and not unhappy with the message.


M e s s a g e H i g h l i g h t s


Four Bets interest me today

Doncaster 12.40

MAJORITIES 5/1 Each Way

Interested to see if the odds on favourite can defy the
bad draw. I think Majorities each way is the sensible
bet here much as the stable are horrible to rely upon.

Kelso 1.05

TEO VIVO 7/1 Win Bet
SUPRISE VENDOR 8/1 Saver Bet
MY IDEA 7/1 Saver Bet

Fascinating Novice Handicap Chase. Messy staking
but the 1st and 2nd favourite are negatives and the
main bet fell at the first in his only ever chase race.
I have drafted in 2 savers to support my main fancy.
The only reason I haven't staked this race was that
I also shortlisted a 4th horse which I haven't staked.

Wincanton 2.40

STANDING OVATION 5/1

Win Bet

Like many people I appreciate he is improving and
so well handicapped. Like many I have reservations
about the ground being softer than ideal. You have to
make a decision to either risk him or look elsewhere
on the ground. For me the decision was easy. I would
give him the benefit of the doubt. He was a different
horse when beaten on soft before. Had it been better
ground he'd be the best bet of the day by far. I would
still see him as one of the best despite the ground.

Doncaster 3.00

MAKING EYES 10/1 Win Bet

CUSHION 6/1 Saver Bet

May be a bit too complicated a race with a big field
and no real draw advantage but I think once you get
a few of these out of the way there is a strong case
for MAKING EYES and I feel Cushion is a good saver.


I think the above 4 bets are the best in the message


November Handicap Verdict


Doncaster 3.35

AWAKE MY SOUL 50/1 Win Bet

HIGHLAND CASTLE 20/1 Win Bet

RHOMBUS 7/1 Saver Bet

This race does sometimes reward the unobvious. The
statistics are strong and clear. You can see from prices
that it's asking a lot. Happy with this portfolio though.


S I R E S and S Y S T E M S

There is a Novice Handicap Chase system I like
that throws up two weak horses at Kelso 1.05pm.

* Novice Handicap Chases in November
* Between 2 Miles and 2m 2f
* Horses from Maiden or Novice Hurdles
* There overall record is a disappointing 1-61
* Those absent more than 6 weeks were 0-29
* Kelso 1.05 has 2 horses that Fail this system
* They are the 1st and 2nd favourites in the race
* CLONDAW KNIGHT 5/2 could be vulnerable
* JIMMIE BROWN 5/1 could be vulnerable

P R O F I L E S & P R EV I E W S


W i n c a n t o n 12.20

7/4 Heath Hunter, 3/1 Sgt Reckless, 4/1 Amore Alato
8/1 Money For Nothing, 12/1 Beaujolais, Whispering Bob
16/1 Very Noble, 25/1 Chill Factor, Downtown Manhattan
25/1 Henwood, 25/1 Lamblord, 40/1 Forget And Forgive.

Sometimes I do this Novice Hurdle other times
not. The best profiles are SGT RECKLESS and
HEATH HUNTER. Both were solid profiles and
I just thought they may have too much for the
horses that had run this year who had failed.

If you look at past renewals of this race for all
horses that had raced before that season you
find most of the winners won on their previous
start. There are the odd exception but it tends
to be true. Having been out and beaten I think
AMORE ALATO, BEAUJOLAIS, VERY NOBLE
and WHISPERING BOB might struggle against
the seasonal debutants. I'd shortlist 2 horses.

* SGT RECKLESS - Big chance and good profile
* HEATH HUNTER - Positive Profile as well
* Choice comes down to which trainer to trust more

Selection

HEATH HUNTER 7/4

Win Bet


K e l s o 12.30

9/4 Mysteree, 5/2 Kilgefin Star, 5/1 Magic Present
5/1 The Last Samuri, 6/1 Mr Syntax, 20/1 Heart Dancer
20/1 Volo Mio, 25/1 Print Shiraz, 33/1 Allforthelove
33/1 L´eminence Grise, 50/1 Ultiep, 100/1 Amilliontimes
100/1 Native Optimist, 100/1 Wind Echo.

* This is a Novice Hurdle around 2m 6f- 2m7f
* THE LAST SAMURI ran in a recent bumper
* Looking at horses doing this I wasn't impressed
* Those that did win tended to run better than he did last time
* Those beaten 3 + lengths like he was last time struggled
* MAGIC PRESENT is 6 and comes from a Bumper
* Not a strong profile but not a negative
* The only 6yo winners like him were lighter raced
* MR SYNTAX is 9 and from a Chase
* I wanted a safer profile than that
* KILGEFIN STAR is 5 and won last time
* Two hurdle runs and don't mind his profile
* I like them to have hurdle and Bumper runs though
* When he won last time he beat Mysteree
* MYSTEREE started favourite that day and came 2nd
* Every chance he could reverse that form today
* He'd be my best guess of the winner

Selection

MYSTEREE 11/4

Win Bet

D o n c a s t e r 12.40

4/9 Penny Drops, 5/1 Majorities, 8/1 Go Sakhee
12/1 Indy, 33/1 Broadway Ranger, 33/1 Columbian Roulette
33/1 Roomie, 50/1 Armelle, 50/1 Daisy Boy
50/1 White Rose Runner, 66/1 Hank Schrader
66/1 San Remo Rose, 100/1 Major Rowan
100/1 Queen Of Arts.

* This is a 2yo maiden over 6f
* Interesting that it is 33/1 bar 4 runners
* One of four horses should win this
* PENNY DROPS sets the standard from a listed race
* If he has a problem then it could be Stall 2

* I looked at 6f races here with 12 or more runners
* Since 2011 there were 45 of these races
* Horses drawn 1 or 2 have a 0-90 record
* Go back to 2010 and there are 60 similar races
* Horses drawn 1 or 2 are just 1-121
* The dilemma is whether we should oppose him
* Especially when we don't have much evidence

* INDY - Not sure I'd want him first time out
* GO SAKHEE - Hasn't set a great standard so far
* MAJORITIES looks the best option each way
* Bound to have needed his debut run

* Brian Meehan 2yo maidens in November
* One previous race
* Starting under 25/1
* Meeham has ran 18 horses with this profile
* 7 of the 18 horses won and they finished in these placing's
* 2 W 2 4 3 W W 6 13 W 4 W 10 11 W 3 1 7

Selection

MAJORITIES 5/1

Each Way


S a n d o w n 12.45

9/4 Merehead, 9/2 Kilmurvy, 5/1 Doctor Foxtrot
6/1 Frizzo, 7/1 The Bear Trap, 10/1 Dawn Twister
12/1 Touch Back, 14/1 Gores Island, 16/1 Occasionally Yours
25/1 Captain Cardington.

* This is a 2m 4f Handicap Hurdle
* Paul Nichols runs MEREHEAD with a 742 day absence
* I looked at similar handicaps around 2m 3f - 2m 5f
* Those in October and November in a similar class
* I looked at Horses absent 300 or more days
* Those that came from Handicaps last time were 2-137
* That's not a very impressive score
* Those aged 7 or more like MEREHEAD were 0-104
* Those from Novice Handicaps like him were 0-27
* I can find similar types win at different distances
* None between 2m 3f - 2m 5f though
* What these statistics are clearly saying is this

They are saying that MEREHEAD is an unsafe favourite
and will probably get beaten. The problem for me is a
small field which includes lots of horses with very long
absences. It doesn't take many to need a run and these
are the things that can turn negatives into winners. Not
a horse I would Lay but I certainly wouldn't bet him.

* The alternatives are messy and complicated profiles
* It is not a race I felt I could sort out cleanly
* Therefore No selection
* I would not have gone with Merehead


K e l s o 1.05

2/1 Clondaw Knight, 5/1 Teo Vivo, 6/1 Jimmie Brown
6/1 Swing Hard, 8/1 My Idea, 10/1 Suprise Vendor
14/1 Brieryhill Boy, 20/1 Alfred Oats, 20/1 Coax
20/1 Leroy Parker, 20/1 Robin´s Command.

* This is a Novice Handicap Chase over 2m 1f
* November has 80 similar races over 2m to 2m 2f
* I looked at horses from Maiden or Novice Hurdles
* There was a poor 1-61 record with these horses
* The only winner (Betabob) had a good recent run
* These horses have a better record at longer distances
* Over short of 2m 3f they haven't scored well
* CLONDAW KNIGHT fails this statistic
* JIMMIE BROWN fails this statistic

* I just want to divert into these races at any distance
* Horses from Novice or Maiden Hurdles
* Horses aged 5
* Running 5 + months ago
* There were 2 winners doing this with lighter weights
* None have done this with 11st 2lbs or more
* JIMMIE BROWN and CLONDAW KNIGHT both fail this
* They both have topweight first time out from non handicaps
* I will be interested to see how they run
* Statistically I am expecting them to get beaten

* Some of the others are hard to read
* SWING HARD didn't offer me enough on his last run
* COAX only looks average
* ALFRED OATS comes from fences last season
* Some winners did that but none aged 9 or more
* Not many tried though and he should be seen as a neutral
* I didn't see enough I liked about him


Shortlist

* BRIERYHILL BOY - No strong objections to his profile
* Bit inexperienced and stable form not convincing
* He is a big price though and I felt he was shortlistable

* MY IDEA - Hard to read. Cant rule him out

* TEO VIVO fell on his chase debut 2 days ago
* That was at the 1st fence and he was fancied
* They haven't retreated back to the schooling ground
* He's out again quickly and it gives me confidence
* TEO VIVO could win this if he jumps well

* SUPRISE VENDOR - Hard to read but respected
* Likes it here. So do the stable. Could win.

Selection

TEO VIVO 7/1 Win Bet

SUPRISE VENDOR 8/1 Saver Bet

MY IDEA 7/1 Saver Bet


D o n c a s t e r 1.15

* This 6f Nursery is too difficult
* Not enough similar races to get involved with
* Just a few things I have noticed
* First of all the Draw
* Since 2011 Doncaster have had 35 handicaps
* Thats 35 Handicaps with 10 or more runners
* Horses drawn 1 were 0-35
* Horses drawn 2 were 0-35
* That combined 0-70 record looks a good angle
* If you look at the 12.40pm preview
* There is another draw statistic that is also relevant
* Just a different way of showing Stalls 1-2 struggle
* KENNY THE CAPTAIN is drawn badly in stall 1
* DONNY ROVER is drawn badly in stall 2
* This isn't enough to open the race up.
* I don't want to get embroiled in complicated Nursery stats
* I could not match PENINA to a winner
* She wouldn't have been my selection had their been one
* No Selection.

D o n c a s t e r 1.50

7/1 Favourite Treat, 7/1 Magistral, 9/1 Levitate
10/1 Showboating, 10/1 Tariq Too, 10/1 Tartiflette
12/1 Myboyalfie, 12/1 Swiftly Done, 14/1 Chosen Character
14/1 Kyllachy Rise, 14/1 Lilac Lace, 14/1 Monsieur Chevalier
20/1 Dusky Queen, 20/1 Frontier Fighter, 20/1 Laffan
20/1 Misplaced Fortune, 20/1 Rhamnus, 20/1 Tellovoi
25/1 Conry, 25/1 Sam Nombulist.

* This is a Class 2 handicap over 7f
* There are 44 similar races late season
* Far too many runners just a few observations
* Since 1999 there were 93 handicaps here at 7f
* Horses drawn 18 or higher were 0-50
* Horses drawn 15 or higher were only 2-128
* The very high draws look unsafe

N e g a t i v e s

* LAFFAN has a tough draw in 18
* SHOWBOATING may find Stall 19 a challenge
* He needs a career best from a difficult draw
* SAM NOMBULIST will find Stall 20 very difficult
* KYLLACHY RISE looks too high in Stall 21
* In 44 similar races horses aged 7 or more are 0-90
* MISPLACED FORTUNE doesn't appeal as an 8yo
* CONRY is out aged 7 out of the handicap
* FAVOURITE TREAT has only ran 3 times before
* I looked at all 44 races in October and November
* Horses with Under 6 career starts were 0-40
* FAVOURITE TREAT is too inexperienced for me
* The longest absent winner in 44 races was 105 days
* RHAMNUS is out as a 3yo absent 381 days
* 3yo fillies are 1-25 the only winner in last years race
* LILAC LACE is a 3yo filly and not for me
* I don't want a 3yo filly trying to follow up a win
* MAGISTRAL looks sexy. Gosden 3yo with recent run.
* No surprise if he wins but something worries me
* He has never raced at 7f before and comes from 8f
* MAGISTRAL is 3 and drops from 8f
* I look at all 3 year olds that dropped from 8f
* I found a very worrying 0-48 record
* I have to take him on because of that

P o s s i b l e s

* CHOSEN CHARACTER is 5 and drops from 8f
* Horses aged 5 doing this are 1-22
* Those without a run in 2 weeks like him are 0-13
* He has a career high mark and is 0-6 in this class
* SWIFTLY DONE is 6 and drops from 8f
* Horses aged 6 doing this were 2-23
* I can live with his profile but he has no 7f form
* He's hardly ran at 7f and all his wins were at 8f
* MYBOYALFIE is 6 and drops from 8f
* Horses aged 6 doing this were 2-23
* Profile acceptable but other worries
* Career high mark and no wins above Class 4
* FRONTIER FIGHTER - Cant find a winner like him
* TARIQ TOO has a tough weight more than past winners
* Combination of factors worry me
* The weight and 6 runs this year for a 6 year old
* TARIQ TOO doesn't look well treated
* TELLOVOI - Impossible to read his unorthodox profile
* Don't like his draw and think its asking too much
* DUSKY QUEEN - I cant rule a 3yo filly out
* One won last year and she comes from the same race too
* Not keen enough to shortlist her

Shortlist

* LEVITATE won the Lincoln in March
* Horses aged 5 without a run in 2 weeks were 4-70
* These 4 won off marks off 97 96 99 98 and came from 7f
* That puts him in an acceptable place
* He's never won at 7f or at this time of year before

* TARTIFLETTE won this last year as a 3yo filly
* There was just 1 filly winning aged 4
* That was in this race in 2011. Have to consider her

* MONSIEUR CHEVALIER - I'm keeping him on side
* Had his problems but has a recent run
* His Racing Post Ratings are similar to his declining mark
* That tells me he is handicapped with a chance
* He will start slowly though and is risky

Selection

MONSIEUR CHEVALIER 14/1
LEVITATE - Saver 12/1
TARTIFLETTE - Saver 12/1


W i n c a n t o n 1.30

5/1 Call Me A Star, 6/1 Mrs Peachey, 6/1 Utopie Des Bordes
13/2 As I Am, 8/1 Highland Retreat, 8/1 Tara Rose, 11/1 Mickie
12/1 Emily´s Flyer, 16/1 Emerald Rose, 20/1 Kim Tian Road
20/1 Loyaute, 20/1 Va´vite , 25/1 Blase Chevalier.

* This is a Mares Handicap Hurdle over 2m 6f
* There are 9 renewals of this race
* I shouldn't be doing this race this year
* Only doing it as we backed the past 2 winners

The one thing different about the race in 2013
is that no horses come from the best trial race
at Chepstow. That could undermine a couple
of the other angles. Because horses who ran
in that Chepstow handicap were dominant it
meant the weak profiles never got a look in.

None this year do that so the weaker profiles
should be much stronger. An example is that
so far all 20 horses that came from a Novice
Hurdle lost in this race. In past renewals those
with Chepstow handicap form were far too
strong for Novice Hurdlers. Without any from
the best trial race the Novice Hurdlers might
find their task a lot easier. Thats my dilemma.

* All 9 winners had at least 6 National Hunt Starts
* They all had at least 4 Hurdle starts as well
* UTOPIE DES BORDES has some problems
* She comes from a novice hurdle
* All 20 horses that did that lost in this race
* She is also first time out and topweight
* No seasonal debutant won with her weight
* Also interesting she is a very small horse
* That bothers me on this track with topweight
* KIM TIAN ROAD is rejected from a Novice Hurdle
* BLASE CHEVALIER is rejected for similar reasons
* You want some experience in this race
* There were 2 winning first time out this season
* Both seasonal debutant winners were 5 year olds
* None have won first time out aged 6 or more
* CALL ME A STAR has to overcome this factor
* She also has a tough weight with 11st 11lbs
* Its more than both the past seasonal debutants
* She has a bit to prove on a career high mark
* HIGHLAND RETREAT is a 6yo seasonal debutant
* None have won but I refer you to my earlier point
* With no horses from Chepstow their chance increases
* VA´VITE and LOYAUTE look out of their depth
* EMERALD ROSE is rated lower than all past winners
* EMILY´S FLYER failed in her hat trick bid last time
* She's up in class today and it may find her out
* AS I AM - Clearly the 82 day absence is an issue
* So is the step up in Grade from a Class 4
* No past winner came from Class 4 or lower
* MRS PEACHEY also steps up from a Class 4 race
* That worries me but she is at least fit and running well
* MRS PEACHEY is hardly rich in backclass
* TARA ROSE comes from a Chase
* No past winners did that or had even ran in a Chase before
* I think there are safer profiles
* MICKIE was in 4th when falling at Cheltenham last time
* I think she is shortlistable having been out and raced
* Whether she handles the track is another issue

Selection

I wont repeat the reason why this race is messy and
why any angles could be unsafe. Not confident but I
am on a hat trick in the race and this year I think the
seasonal debutant HIGHLAND RETREAT has chances.

HIGHLAND RETREAT 8/1 Win Bet

D o n c a s t e r 2.25

7/2 Jack Dexter, 9/2 Highland Colori, 5/1 Eton Rifles
10/1 Hoof It, 10/1 Mass Rally, Spinatrix, 12/1 Morache Music
14/1 Hallelujah, 20/1 Ballesteros, 20/1 Gracia Directa
25/1 Arnold Lane, 25/1 Caledonia Lady, 25/1 Dinkum Diamond
25/1 Free Zone, 25/1 Jimmy Styles, 33/1 City Girl, 50/1 Malilla
66/1 Azenzar, 100/1 Amelie Beat.

* The Wentworth Stakes is a 6f Listed race
* I will start with the draw
* I looked at races here with 12 + runners
* Since 2011 there were 45 of these races
* Horses draw 1 and 2 had a 0-90 record
* If I look at races with 15 or more runners
* Horses drawn 1-2-3 have a 0-93 record
* The very low draws worry me
* BALLESTEROS - Rejected drawn 1 and from 5f
* ETON RIFLES has a bad draw in Stall 2
* No horse aged 8 or more like him won from 5f
* Given he has just 1 run this season I must leave him
* DINKUM DIAMOND isn't safe from a 5f race
* None aged 5 did it and none with his absence
* FREE ZONE is 4 and from a 5f handicap
* The 2010 winner did that but ran better last time
* FREE ZONE is 0-10 above Class 2 and has a bit to prove
* CALEDONIA LADY is a 4yo filly from a 5f handicap
* So was the 2010 winner so I can't rule her out
* She does have twice as big an absence though
* AMELIE BEAT -AZENZAR are outclassed
* The longest absent winner in 20 years was 49 days
* CITY GIRL doesn't appeal as a filly absent 83 days
* MALILLA is underraced as a 3yo
* JIMMY STYLES is older than every winner
* I think he's underraced this season
* Horses from 7f races struggled
* Since 1990 they had a 2-72 record
* Horses aged 3-4-5 from a 7f race were 0-57
* ARNOLD LANE fails that and didn't run well enough last time
* GRACIA DIRECTA is a hard to read older mare
* Not for me with just 1 run in 90 days
* HALLELUJAH is a 5yo mare
* None of these won when unexposed like her
* I'd have preferred more runs this season too


Possibles

* SPINATRIX - I dont really want an older mare
* Not when She has no wins beyond Class 3
* And when She has no Pattern form

* HIGHLAND COLORI comes from a 7f race
* Horses aged 5 doing that are 0-10
* Horses from 7f races in Class 2 or lower are 0-48
* HIGHLAND COLORI is not like any past winner
* My Stats say No but I say he has to be considered
* On Racing Post Ratings (below) he comes out 2nd best

* HOOF IT is not unlike the 2000 winner
* Not back to his old best yet but should be competitive

* MASS RALLY has a similar profile to Hoof It
* Not unlike the 2000 winner with less backclass
* He hasn't won beyond a handicap yet
* He should run well but may find this too tough

* MORACHE MUSIC - Not keen on his draw in Stall 3
* He is not unlike the 2006 winner though

* JACK DEXTER was 10th in last years race
* He was a negative that day as a 3yo from 5f
* Safer profile this year and an obvious chance

* Racing Post Ratings of 110 or more
* Must be recorded over 6f on Soft ground
* Must be from 2012 or 2013

118 JACK DEXTER
117 None
116 HIGHLAND COLORI
115 None
114 None
113 JACK DEXTER
112 SPINATRIX
111 ETON RIFLES
110 JACK DEXTER ETON RIFLES
110 MASS RALLY MORACHE MUSIC

Selection

Not sure I have nailed this. I wonder if I have
underestimated Mass Rally or Spinatrix. I am
in a dilemma with HIGHLAND COLORI. He has
a weak profile statistically but a strong one if
you look at his Racing Post Ratings. I was not
keen enough on Hoof It but he could return to
his old form and is entitled to win. I decided it
was important to make sure if JACK DEXTER
won the race we couldn't lose so he would be
at least a saver. I'm playing it this way.


HIGHLAND COLORI 6/1 Win Bet
JACK DEXTER 4/1 Saver Bet

W i n c a n t o n 2.40

5/1 Standing Ovation, 6/1 Poungach, 7/1 Court By Surprise
8/1 Aiteen Thirtythree, 8/1 Pantxoa, 9/1 De La Bech
9/1 Masters Hill, 10/1 Ballyallia Man, 12/1 Ballyoliver
14/1 Billie Magern, 16/1 Alvarado, 16/1 Lamboro Lad
33/1 Alfie Spinner, 40/1 Owen Glendower.


* The Badger Ales Trophy is a 3m 1f Handicap Chase

This has never been the best race for statistics and with
some of the stronger angles not applying this year I am
not that bothered about a statistical approach. I wanted
to oppose the horses from Novice Chases in this race.

* Horses from Novice Chases were 1-27
* The 2001 winner was the only one to do it
* It was a small field that year with 8 runners
* The 26 other losers including several strongly fancied
* POUNGACH is not for me from a Novice Chase
* PANTXOA is rejected for the same reasons
* DE LA BECH is also out from a Novice Chase
* He only has 2 previous Chase runs
* All 12 past winners had at least 4 chase runs
* MASTERS HILL has raced just twice over fences
* He pulled up in one of those runs
* He isn't close enough to a past winner for me
* ALFIE SPINNER isn't running well enough
* OWEN GLENDOWER is outclassed
* LAMBORO LAD looks a bit out of his class
* AITEEN THIRTYTHREE is a 9yo absent 651 days
* With Topweight I will be surprised if he wins this
* BILLIE MAGERN shouldn't be able to win off 142
* Not in a field this size with an absence of 70 days
* ALVARADO wouldn't be my first choice
* Not on a career high mark in a graded he's unproven in
* BALLYOLIVER is a 9yo seasonal debutant
* Career high mark after 16 Chase runs not for me
* BALLYALLIA MAN - I'd give him a chance
* Off putting he was thrashed in this race last year
* COURT BY SURPRISE looks shortlistable
* Generally progressive and no obvious flaws
* STANDING OVATION looks very well treated off bottomweight
* Horses aged 6 like him have a very good record
* The 6yo record is W 5 4 W PU 3 5 W PU 3 2
* Horses aged 6 that won last time out were W W PU 2 W
* Those with 4 or more chase starts were W W W
* He's improving and won his last 3 races
* There is a case that the ground could be softer than ideal
* I still see him as worth betting

Selection

STANDING OVATION 5/1

Win Bet

D o n c a s t e r 3.00

4/1 Cushion, 5/1 Prussian, 7/1 Cocktail Queen
7/1 Reckoning, 8/1 Princess Loulou, 10/1 Making Eyes
12/1 Bonanza Creek, 14/1 Jabhaat, 16/1 Agent Allison
16/1 Romantic Settings, , 20/1 Yojojo
25/1 Miss Cap Estel, 25/1 Miss Dashwood, 33/1 Amulet
33/1 Astra Hall, 33/1 Contradict, 33/1 Lady Loch
50/1 Lillebonne.

* This is a Listed race over 10 furlongs for fillies
* There has been only 10 renewals of this race
* Big field. Tough Race. Looking at a shortlist
* Past winners passed the following angles
* They were all aged 3 or 4
* They all had between 5 and 14 career starts
* They were all rated 83 or higher
* They all had 1-2-3-4-5-6 runs that season
* They were all beaten under 10 lengths last time out
* They all had Listed or Group Class form before
* No winners came from Maidens
* No winners came from Handicaps in Class 3 or lower
* The only winners from 8f or shorter were from Pattern races
* They all ran within 70 days
* PRUSSIAN fails this last statistic
* Not prepared to overlook that with 16 runs already
* She is also a small filly who wants a smaller field
* This leaves a shortlist of these horses

* AGENT ALLISON - Has a bit to prove
* JABHAAT - Needs to improve but should do
* COCKTAIL QUEEN - Chances but just 1 run since May
* CUSHION - Generally a solid all round profile

However I think we should go with MAKING EYES here.
She fails my statistics as the only 5yo and she is a little
exposed but you have to consider these stats are based
on a very small sample size and we need to be flexible.

MAKING EYES is rated 100

I think I can get Prussian beaten with a long absence
and a small field horse. If think Reckoning is beatable
with a long absence. If we save on CUSHION and get
these two beaten then MAKING EYES only has a 0-97
class field to beat. That is much weaker than the class
she has been keeping. She hasn't been fit enough yet.

* Goodwood she badly needed the run
* Epsom - She was the worst weighted horse in a Group 3
* Newcastle - She won a Listed race on her 3rd run
* Vichy - She was an outsider in a foreign Group race
* Goodwood - Nothing wrong with her 33/1 3rd

Selection

MAKING EYES 10/1 Win Bet

CUSHION 6/1 Saver Bet


S a n d o w n 3.05

7/2 Chat Room, 5/1 Ubaldo Des Menhies
11/2 Valid Reason, 13/2 Saphir Du Rheu, 9/1 Mcvicar
10/1 Crafty Roberto, 10/1 Swampfire, 12/1 Hawkhill
12/1 Ut Majeur Aulmes, 14/1 Whipcrackaway
16/1 Kingcora, 20/1 Escort´men, 25/1 Oscar Prairie.

* This is a 2m Handicap Hurdle
* I looked at all similar races in November
* Thats 2m Handicap hurdles in Class 2-3-4-5
* I looked for seasonal debutants
* Those that came from maiden or novice hurdles
* Those with under 3 hurdle starts were 1-22
* That winner was Seedsman who had 2 hurdle runs
* He only won a 0-119 handicap hurdle
* CHAT ROOM is trying to win a 0-130
* He does that with just 1 Hurdle run
* 10 horses tried to do that in all similar races
* They finished PU 9 17 F F 6 2 2 4 2
* CHAT ROOM looks too risky to me
* Horses aged 4 are 1-32 in this race
* SAPHIR DU RHEU wouldn't interest me aged 4
* Not with topweight first time out
* I looked at 5 year olds first time out
* Coming from Novice or Maiden hurdles none won
* All 8 trying this lost in the past renewals
* UT MAJEUR AULMES fails that
* UBALDO DES MENHIES fails that
* KINGCORA didn't do enough last time
* ESCORT´MEN didn't do enough last time
* OSCAR PRAIRIE doesn't have optimum conditions

Shortlist

* SWAMPFIRE - 5yo from a handicap with an absence
* Similar horses are 3-9 in this race
* All 3 were lighter raced than he is but I respect him
* Stable has a great record in the race
* May need the run but definitely shortlistable

* CRAFTY ROBERTO has the same issues as Swampfire
* Another good profile but may be too exposed

* MCVICAR - Not best age but respected

* VALID REASON - One of the fittest horses
* 2nd in last years race after running on the flat
* Less weight this year and a big runner

Selection

VALID REASON 13/2

Each Way

I am a little underwhelmed that I have ended up
with a Dean Ivory national Hunt horse in a decent
class when we have P. Nicholls, Jonjo, Alan King
horses and other big stables. Statistically I want
to get Chat Room and Saphir Du Rheu beaten as
that's the reason I did the race. Not sure I have it
right on my shortlist but I've made the decision.


D o n c a s t e r 3.35

6/1 Conduct, 7/1 Lahaag, 8/1 Rhombus
10/1 Border Legend, 12/1 Nicholascopernicus, 14/1 Aiken
14/1 Forgotten Hero, 14/1 Hi There, 14/1 Open Eagle
16/1 Bohemian Rhapsody, 16/1 Communicator
16/1 Highland Castle, 16/1 Nearly Caught, 16/1 Shrewd
20/1 Cashpoint, 20/1 Twelve Strings, 25/1 Awake My Soul
25/1 Cousin Khee, 25/1 Swnymor, 33/1 Kiama Bay,
33/1 Rio´s Rosanna, 40/1 Itlaaq, 50/1 Ex Oriente.

* The November handicap is a 12f handicap
* Since 1997 there has been 16 renewals of this race
* The Draw throws up one very interesting statistic
* Since 2005 there has been 18 Handicaps at Doncaster
* Thats only 18 Handicaps that had 16 or more runners
* The winners came from the following Stalls
* 8 9 20 16 9 20 19 9 15 10 14 9 17 22 10 13 18 10
* Horses drawn 1-2-3-4-5-6-7 had a 0-122 record
* I suspect a sharp early bend cuts off the low draws

* Fitness is obviously crucial in this race
* Past winners had the following absences
* 14 51 22 35 57 35 41 36 26 14 15 7 34 15 41 24 days
* In 21 renewals the longest absent winner was 57 days
* All winners had at least 4 runs that season as well
* Horses with 1-2-3 runs this season have struggled
* The last to do this was back in 1990
* Since then all 89 that tried have failed
* I have fitness issues with some of these
* AIKEN only has 3 runs this season
* I have other problems with him later in the preview
* CONDUCT only has 2 races this season
* He is unexposed to be fair but he is a 6 year old
* CONDUCT is also absent longer than the last 16 winners
* SWNYMOR has fitness doubts as well
* He has raced just once since March
* EX ORIENTE is short of races this season
* BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY hasn't raced in 78 days
* Thats longer than every past winner since the 1980's
* This is the official rating of the last 15 winners
* 93 93 97 98 95 97 99 93 97 89 87 75 80 82 105
* Only 1 recent winner was rated 100 or more
* No horse rated 100+ won in the previous 14 renewals
* All 35 that tried to do this failed
* AIKEN has a tough mark of 104 given he is underraced
* LAHAAG has to defy a rating of 101
* That wont be easy. More about this 4yo shortly
* I want to look at the different ages
* Horses aged 3 have a 11-129 record since 1990
* The 11 winners had the following official ratings
* 97 82 84 97 87 93 73 90 91 91 99
* No 3yo winner had ever ran in Group races before
* All 11 winners aged 3 ran within 36 days
* The 11 winners aged 3 have these career runs
* 9 12 4 13 4 15 6 7 8 8 6
* Most recent 3yo winners were up in class
* They all came from Class 3 or lower
* Look at 3 year olds from Class 2 or better
* Since 1994 these horses were 0-40
* The last 3yo to win from a Class 2 race was 1994
* These days when they win they do so from lower grade
* There were 3 past winners aged 3 going up in trip
* These three winners had 13 15 8 runs
* NEARLY CAUGHT is 3 and rated 102
* That's more than any past 3yo's were rated
* He also has Group Class form and no other 3yo winner did
* All he has done is win 3yo handicaps off 78 and 85
* He now finds himself 17lbs higher
* Win lose or draw he isn't the right type
* SHREWD is a 3 year old absent 58 days
* That's longer than every past 3yo winner
* She ran in Class 2 last time which isn't the norm
* I'd also whether she will stay in the ground
* None of the Sires winners at 11f or more won on soft
* RHOMBUS is the other 3yo in the race
* He passes all my angles for 3 year olds
* I only have one reservation about RHOMBUS
* Whether he is good enough
* 11 winning 3 year olds since 1990
* 10 of these were beaten under 4 lengths last time
* RHOMBUS was beaten a bit too far for comfort
* Horses aged 4 won 9 races since 1988
* They had the following official ratings
* 93 97 98 99 89 75 96 94 70
* They all had at least 9 career starts
* Recent 4yo winners had 24 39 21 26 12 15 14 career starts
* Be wary of 4yo's who won last time out
* Horses aged 4 doing this were 0-40 since 1988
* No filly aged 4 has won this since before 1988
* The 4yo winners all had at least 6 runs this season
* None had ran in Group races before
* None came from Class 4 or lower (0-55)
* LAHAAG is 4 and rated 101
* Thats higher than the last 14 winners
* That may well be something to forgive
* His Racing Post Ratings are 106 103 88 106
* That tells me he is capable of winning off 101
* There are other problems with his profile
* He's be the joint least experienced 4yo winner
* LAHAAG is 4 and won last time out
* We know the last 40 that did that were beaten
* He only has 5 runs in 2013
* Thats fewer than all recent 4yo winners had
* You also have to consider Stall 2 a worry as well
* LAHAAG looks well treated but has flaws in his profile
* HI THERE is 4 and won last time out
* We know all 40 horses aged 4 doing that lost
* I'd be worried about his stamina by Dark Angel
* This sires runners at 11f or more are 4-50
* They all won on Fast ground (3) or Sand (1)
* Top of his game but stamina and profile doubts
* OPEN EAGLE is another last time 4yo winner
* We know similar types were 0-40
* Worries me he has just 5 runs this season
* Thats less than all recent 4yo winners
* OPEN EAGLE has raced just once in the last 106 days
* He looks like his clever new trainer has improved him
* He will need to again but that is possible
* AWAKE MY SOUL is a 4 year old
* He passes all my main 4yo demands
* I looked at 4 year olds up in distance
* Most that did this were well raced
* Only 1 managed it with under 20 career runs
* That was the 2009 winner who was reasonably close
* AWAKE MY SOUL has to prove he can stay 12f
* I think there is a lot of encouragement on his pedigree
* AWAKE MY SOUL is a dangerous floater here
* FORGOTTEN HERO is 4 and won last time
* We know similar types were 0-40
* He has prior Group Class form and no 4yo did before
* Top trainer and laid out for the race so respected
* He isn't like any 4yo winners though
* He could have been better drawn than 6 as well
* BORDER LEGEND is 4 and won last time
* We know similar types were 0-40
* He only has 4 runs this season
* All recent 4yo winners had at least 2 more
* BORDER LEGEND comes from a Class 4 race
* Horses aged 4 doing that were 0-55
* I don't like his profile enough
* TWELVE STRINGS is another last time 4yo winner
* Again similar types were 0-40 in this race
* He won a Class 4 handicap last time
* Horses aged 4 that came from Class 4 or lower were 0-55
* Horses aged 5 have a 4-96 record
* AIKEN is 5 and I think underraced this year
* He also comes from a Group race which is a worry
* No past winners came from Group races either
* NICHOLASCOPERNICUS is a 4 year old
* There are positives with his profile
* He is on a career high mark though
* He's never won in this class before either
* He only has 4 runs this season
* Past 4yo winners all had at least 6 runs this season
* HIGHLAND CASTLE is an unexposed 5yo
* The 2008 winner was also unexposed aged 5
* Its not a good sign he has past Group race form
* It's not a deal breaker though
* He has the look of a faster ground horse
* His last run on soft was very good
* It was a Class 2 handicap and he was close 3rd
* That was his first run in 69 days
* Entitled to need it I don't see why he can't win this
* COMMUNICATOR is 5 and absent 84 days
* Thats the longest absence since the 1980's
* With just 4 runs this season I'd be worried
* All 5yo winners of this had more runs
* His trainer is very careful and a win wouldn't shock me
* He doesn't fit the profile of any past winner though
* Horses aged 6 or more have a very weak record
* In this race they have a 1-91 record
* Since 1980 only 2 winners of this race were aged 6 or more
* CONDUCT fails that and as I said earlier looks underraced
* I looked at horses that came from 10f or shorter
* There were 7 winners that did that
* Horses Aged 4 or more doing this had a 0-40 record
* CONDUCT fails this as well
* KIAMA BAY is the wrong aged as a 7 year old
* He has the worst draw and hasn't won off his current mark
* CASHPOINT must be unsafe as an 8yo
* Especially going up in distance
* No winner did that aged 5 or more
* With no wins in the class or off his current mark he's out
* COUSIN KHEE is a 6yo and we know these have struggled
* I think he has a bad draw in stall 4
* I don't see a good enough case for him
* ITLAAQ is unsafe as a 7 year old
* Badly drawn and flopped last time he is rejected
* RIO´S ROSANNA doesn't appeal as a 6yo mare
* Not on a career high mark

Shortlist

RHOMBUS - AWAKE MY SOUL - HIGHLAND CASTLE

I wasn't sure about Rhombus. He passes my 3yo stats
so he is shortlisted. I have reservations about a couple
of things not least the price. The compromise option is
to make him a saver. HIGHLAND CASTLE looks worth
a small bet. Many past renewals went to horses that
didn't have an obvious chance until you looked again
with the benefit of hindsight. AWAKE MY SOUL is 70/1
on Betfair and has been bigger. Outrageous maybe
but I see enough I like and think he has a chance here.

Selection

AWAKE MY SOUL 40/1 Win Bet

HIGHLAND CASTLE 20/1 Win Bet

RHOMBUS 8/1 Saver Bet


D o n c a s t e r 4.05

This Apprentice Handicap is too hard. No preview.
I just wanted to mention the Draw over 7f here as
it looks significant. Other than that the winner may
be a horse under 8 that's had at least 5 runs and 5
that season. He should have come from 7f or more
last time out and may be drawn in stall 17 or lower.

* Since 1999 there were 93 handicaps here at 7f
* Horses drawn 18 or higher were 0-50
* Horses drawn 15 or higher were only 2-128
* The very high draws look unsafe

No Selection

****************************************************
****************************************************

Best Wishes

Guy Ward

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

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S a t u r d a y R e f l e c t i o n s ( taken from following Sunday message )

There were two bets yesterday and one of them won
and I think we won the day and that was so important
as we had lost the last three Saturdays after two good
ones in a row. Whilst this one went our way there will
always be damage in a Saturday message. These are
never clean knockouts and there are casualties. Didn't
start well with MAJORITIES coming 4th. That was very
disappointing when you consider we got the odds on
favourite beaten and the main danger unplaced. The
stable are so difficult to read I should not have risked
a bet on one of their horses. The early message didn't
go well either. I might have staked the novice hurdles
better and may have saved two selections had I known
the prices available. The message finally had a winner
with Highland Retreat at 8s but unfortunately I made a
mistake putting the preview later in the message than
it should have been and some people might not have
realised it and missed it. My apologies for that. It was
a mistake and a bad one. Pressure based mistake that
was brought on by having to send the message earlier
since the clocks gone back. One of the main positives
for me was Jack Dexter winning from Highland Colori
with Spinatrix third. Whilst we only broke level in this
race I loved that result. I did some Racing Post ratings
analysis that I have used a few times recently looking
at 6f soft ground numbers and the analysis worked so
well as the 3 horses finishing 1st 2nd and 3rd all filled
those positions and it was spot on. I have used that as
a method a few times. The previous time we only had
a 2nd (Not Till Monday) but this was the method I used
for both the 14/1 winner Mass Rally and when Maarek
won the Prix De L'abbaye at 8/1. In the right races it's
a powerful weapon that puts races in perspective and
we only have to look at Jack Dexters result to see this.
Then came STANDING OVATION and he was brilliant.
The message needed a big result and he delivered it.
He never looked likely to lose. Profit on that day. Two
of the last 3 bets have won now and since I made the
change to just a one tier staking system we are nicely
ahead. Battered and bruised a bit after yesterday but
a winning day which is more enjoyable on a Saturday.



 

 

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