Mathematician 1905
No Main Account bet
1 Optional Account bet
Today's Bet
Newbury 6.10
JEBRIL 9/2
Win Bet
The ideal scenario today must be a big priced
winner just as we had last Saturday but where
it will come from today given so much racing
is anyone's guess. There's a relentless barrage
of difficult handicaps on Grade 1 tracks and it
isn't possible to tackle these head on. A multi
Preview message could be a disaster so I am
going with a slimmer tactical message bailing
out of all the competitive races only designed
to beat us. I don't remember a Saturday like it.
I am stunned at the ferocity of the cards today.
I've found some less intense races I like and I
am going with a bet I have chosen from these
races as that is more sensible than to be foolish
and brave. A day to be a conscientious objector.
O p t i o n a l A c c o u n t
Today's Bet
Newbury 6.10
JEBRIL 9/2
Win Bet
I like this bet a lot. I wouldn't describe him as a
statistical bet but there are so many negatives
in the race and a good narrative to show he is
well treated and I can only fear one opponent.
F r i d a y 's S u m m a r y
The message started well but disappointed later on
at Catterick including the bet on BALINKA. Looking
at how the race was run it is hard to avoid the fact
I overestimated her draw. There had been winners
from high draws recently but she didn't cope after
messing the start up when the stalls opening when
she veered to the right. She would not have won if
that hadn't happened though. It was a poor choice
but had I chosen differently then it would not have
been a winner as my next choice was Keep it Dark.
P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S
H a y d o c k 1.30
4/1 Exzachary, 9/2 Justonefortheroad, 6/1 Dubai Hills
13/2 Eurystheus, 13/2 Extraterrestrial, 10/1 King Of Eden
14/1 Take It To The Max, 20/1 Rio Cobolo 25/1 Bob.
* This is a Mile Handicap for 0-80 rated horses
* Middle to high numbers have a slight edge
* EXZACHARY is 4 and won a 7f handicap last time
* 4 horses aged 4 did that but 3 had under 8 runs
* EXZACHARY has 12 runs and just 1 this year
* None of the 4 winners had 1 or 2 runs this season
* EXZACHARY's profile is flawed
* EXTRATERRESTRIAL is 10 and absent 234 days
* Horses aged 9 or more first time out were 1-30
* I'd be a bit disappointed if he won this race
* Especially after a fractured Pelvis and his trainer negative
* KING OF EDEN was well beaten over 7f recently
* That's a weak profile and Stall 1 worries me
* BOB looks wrong and out of his depth
* RIO COBOLO looks an unlikely winner
* TAKE IT TO THE MAX makes no appeal
* Not having just downgraded yards and absent 594 days
Shortlist
* EURYSTHEUS - Entitled to have needed his last 2 runs
* Looks capable of winning off his current rating
* JUSTONEFORTHEROAD - We had an 8yo win this last year
* Like his profile and shaped well on video last time
* Just worried the ground could be turning against him
* DUBAI HILLS - Handicapped to win on course form
* I think he's had an upgrade in stable this year
* Entitled to need each of his last two races
* If he runs to his best then he should be winning
Selection
DUBAI HILLS 9/2 Win Bet
JUSTONEFORTHEROAD 7/2 Saver
Sire Statistic
DARK ANGEL 2 Year Olds Over 6f
This may or may not be interesting but I recently did some
research on two year olds by Dark Angel that raced over 6f.
* Unraced 2 year olds
* Sired by Dark Angel
* Running over 6f or more
* I found a 2-84 record
* Those that raced on Turf were 0-72
* Those that raced on softer than good were 0-23
* They look risky to me and today 3 horses fails this
Chester 1.55 - CYMRO fails this sire statistic
Newmarket 1.55 - SHAAKIS fails this sire statistic
Newmarket 1.55 - DARK PROFIT fails this sire statistic
T r a m o r e 2.45
2/1 Memorable, 7/2 Rayna, 6/1 Golden Sky
6/1 Lady Clitico, 6/1 Sixteen Again, 10/1 Silverpockets
14/1 Irish Mint, 33/1 Ballinlammy Gem, 33/1 Well Done Dolly.
* This is a 12f maiden for fillies
* Unraced horses can win but I'd rather have experience
* MEMORABLE wouldn't be first choice when unraced
* WELL DONE DOLLY - Horses from Bumpers are wrong
* LADY CLITICO is sired by Bushranger
* This Sire's runners at 9f and more are 0-29
* They are 1-83 running over a mile or more
* LADY CLITICO could have stamina limitations
* SILVERPOCKETS ran well last time but she is a 7yo
* No horse aged 6 or more has won any fillies maiden like it
* She may become the first but I'd rather look elsewhere
* GOLDEN SKY - Hard to judge but has to prove stamina
Shortlist
* SIXTEEN AGAIN - Hard to know if she stays or is being handicapped
* I'd be confident she didn't stay 12f on heavy ground last time
* She has a big chance if she gets it on better ground today
* RAYNA looks interesting on paper
We have all been here before. RAYNA is sexy with John Oxx
and the Aga Khan as connections and you easily can convince
yourself she will win when you find flaws in her opposition but
the truth of the matter is she is slow like all of then and has had
some sort of setback. Something has to win though and she is
the safest choice on paper and the following helps me decide.
* John Oxx has run 5 horses in this maiden
* These 5 horses finished W W W W W
* They had 2 2 2 2 2 career starts
* RAYNA has 2 career starts as all his 5 winners had
Selection
RAYNA 7/2 Win Bet
SIXTEEN AGAIN 6/1 Saver
Y o r k 2.50
7/1 Alben Star, 8/1 Monsieur Joe, 10/1 Jamaican Bolt
12/1 Long Awaited, 12/1 Masamah, 12/1 Normal Equilibrium
12/1 Secret Witness, 12/1 Taurus Twins, 12/1 Top Boy
12/1 Tumblewind, 14/1 Body And Soul, 14/1 Magical Macey
14/1 Mappin Time, 14/1 Racy, 14/1 Singeur, 20/1 Even Stevens
25/1 Ancient Cross, 25/1 El Viento, 25/1 Inxile.
This is a fascinating 5f handicap. I have followed my angles
here and they have led me somewhere I did not want to be.
LONG AWAITED - Horse to Follow
* Recently I wrote a horses to follow list
* Horses that had run well last time from impossible draws
* LONG AWAITED was on that list and is interesting
* I thought he'd be running at Epsom next week
* I like him and his profile I just have 1 worry
* That is his draw in Stall 18
* This is the draw at York in handicaps with 12 + runners
* 8 4 16 4 13 19 2 17 5 17 13 17 5 10 1 9 14 8 4 9
* As you can see it's not very conclusive
* There was a Stall 19 win but non runners meant just 16 ran
* LONG AWAITED is a positive though
I wasn't sold on JAMAICAN BOLT and also wanted to avoid
Taurus Twins and Tumblewind. Body And Soul has a weak
profile. I thought I'd have been able to find good reasons to
oppose Secret Witness, Monsieur Joe and Magical Macey
but I can't get enough evidence against them. At this stage
I knew I'd be struggling to find a bet in this race. There is
another annoying statistic that needs a correct decision if
we are to get the race right. I don't know if this is relevant,
* Horses that came from 5f York handicap last time out
* This is the handicap at the Dante Meeting 16 days ago
* There were 30 horses that ran there and came here
* All 30 of these horses lost
* None of these 30 horses managed to place 1-2-3
* I don't know how much I should rely on this angle
* The following horses fail this statistic
* Monsieur Joe - Magical Macey - Secret Witness
* Normal Equilibrium - Long Awaited - Top Boy
It will be fascinating to see if that 0-30 statistic works. It is
a negative for my eyecatcher LONG AWAITED and also for
a horse I backed each way that day TOP BOY. I'm going to
trust this statistic. Apply my other negatives. I expected to
put TOP BOY in the staking. My heart says LONG AWAITED
but looking at these angles they say no. The above angles
in this race are now pushing me towards these selection.
ALBEN STAR 11/1 Win Bet
RACY 16/1 Win Bet
N e w b u r y 6.10
11/4 Hernando Torres, 9/2 Dark And Dangerous
11/2 Jebril, 11/2 Jewelled, 7/1 Hail Promenader, 14/1 Supa Seeker
14/1 Young Dottie, 16/1 Candelita, 16/1 Pahente, 16/1 Polydamos
33/1 Kilburn.
* This is an Amateur Riders race over 10f
* There are 15 renewals of this race
* There are 60 similar races in May and June
* HERNANDO TORRES comes from a 7f race
* In 60 of these races all horses from 7f races were 0-32
* HERNANDO TORRES comes from 7f with 1 run this season
* That looks a problem to me
* Horses that had 1 race this season were 0-42 in this race
* HERNANDO TORRES has that to overcome as well
* Horses absent a month or more are 1-46 in this race
* I wouldn't want a horse with a long absence
* KILBURN has to go as a 10 year old with a break
* PAHENTE is exposed and absent 436 days and looks unsafe
* YOUNG DOTTIE - I don't want an 8yo mare first time out
* If you have run this year it needs to be within 6 weeks
* Horses running this year but absent 6 + weeks were 1-58
* JEWELLED has been absent 86 days
* That's plenty for an 8yo mare with topweight
* POLYDAMOS has 66 days absence and is exposed
* He has yet to win in 20 races on flat or jumps
* CANDELITA is a 7 year old mare
* Not convinced she'd done enough in 2 runs this season
* She's just been sold cheaply as well
* Her jockey has never ridden on the flat before as well
* HAIL PROMENADER has won his last 2 races
* Both were over a mile and he has yet to prove he stays
* No horse won at a mile last time older than 6
* HAIL PROMENADER is 8 and he isn't convincing
* My biggest worry is the 7lbs girl that's riding
* This is her first ride under rules
* SUPA SEEKER is 4lbs out of the handicap
* That won't help and neither will the ground
* He's bred for faster ground and isn't sure to stay this far
* I'd question whether he has the class on this ground
Shortlist
* DARK AND DANGEROUS is fit and has a recent run
* That counts for plenty and his stable are in great form
* I think he'd be happier in a grade lower but he is respected
* He could easily win this on fitness
* JEBRIL only has 1 run this season
* No past winner of this race had just one run
* In his case I am ignoring that
* This is because he is very lightly raced
* I looked at racing post ratings in this race
* Horses that raced over 10f on softer than good
* JEBRIL came out 5lbs clear of the field
* Obviously his last run in France is impossible to read
* One of the things I like about him is the distance
* He may not have stayed in his last 4 runs over 11f and more
* His Sire Stats suggest that's a reasonable assumption
* His form before that as a 3yo is good enough to win this
* It has left him looking very well treated
* Because of that and because he is lightly raced
* I am going to ignore the fact he has 1 run this season
* Against a lot of negatives I fancy him a bit
Selection
JEBRIL 9/2
Win Bet
S t r a t f o r d 6.25
5/2 Oscarslad, 100/30 Five Star Wilsham, 13/2 Thomas Wild
7/1 Fredo, 10/1 Bally Sands, 10/1 Classic Case, 10/1 Dark Glacier
14/1 Top Smart, 14/1 Union Jack D´ycy, 20/1 Doubletoilntrouble.
* This is a handicap chase over 3m 4f
* The best profile is something like this
* Male horse aged 7-8-9-10-11
* Ideally winning last time but placing 1-2-3-4 is best
* Running within 6 weeks
* Running over 3m or further last time
* The best proifile is 8 year olds winning last time
* Running within the past 25 days
* There were 7 horses in this race that had this profile
* They finished W 3 W 2 W W W
* OSCARSLAD has this profile
My angles suggest OSCARSLAD needs consideration
as a last time out 8yo winner. FIVE STAR WILSHAM is
also worth considering. He recently upgraded stables
and the new connections have just won with him last
time out. FIVE STAR WILSHAM has far more chasing
experience than OSCARSLAD who only has 3 chase
runs. The 2008 winner of this won with 2 chase races
but the 15 other winners of this race had more. Given
that 10 of the last 16 winners of this race won on their
previous starts I'd be inclined to stay with this pair
and look at a win bet and a saver which seems fair.
Selection
FIVE STAR WILSHAM 6/1 Win Bet
OSCARSLAD 3/1 Saver
N e w b u r y 7.10
4/1 Knight Owl, 6/1 Harry Bosch, 6/1 Uncle Dermot
7/1 Ree´s Rascal, 8/1 Annawi, 8/1 First Post, 10/1 Big Baz
10/1 Buckstay, 10/1 Falcon´s Reign, 12/1 Aqua Ardens
20/1 Mazaaher, 33/1 Atlantis Crossing.
* This is a Mile Handicap
* Newbury have 9 renewals of this race
* The best profile is as follows
* Male horses aged 4
* Running within 6 weeks
* Coming from handicaps over 8f or more
* Beaten under 2 lengths in those races
* Coming from Class 4 or Class 5 races
* Under 21 career starts
* In the 9 past renewals 11 horses had this profile
* They finished W 3 2 5 W 5 W W 4 W W
* That 6-11 record points to two horses
HARRY BOSCH - KNIGHT OWL
I can't bet a Brian Meehan horse with confidence
Selection
KNIGHT OWL 3/1 Win Bet
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Best Wishes
Guy Ward
www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk
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