Mathematician 2022
Saturday October 11th
1 Account Bet
Newmarket 2.40
TALMADA 10/1
Each Way
Three big priced options and I have
chosen this one from the three. We
are going to have to rely on fitness
but it is a race where most winners
had lacked a run in some time. Not
the best of each way races but this
is a race with lot of deadwood. It's
annoying only the Tote and Betfred
offer 4 places but I will settle with 3
and I do want a big priced bet today.
My best bets are 10/1 14/1 20/1 so
it won't be easy to get any to win a
race never mind choosing which may
be the best one. The usual choices
on a Saturday and this one is hard.
T o d a y s R a c i n g
Lot of variety today with a full mixture of codes
and countries and some diverse previews too.
We will soon find out if developing statistics in
the Cesarewitch was a waste of time or not. My
portfolio today has a mixture of different bets.
Best Profile Horse
Chepstow 2.35 - Emerging Talent 11/8
Three Big Priced Selections
Newmarket 2.40
TALMADA 10/1
Each Way
York 3.30
RENE MATHIS 20/1 Each Way
HIGHLAND COLORI 12/1 Saver
York 4.45
CALEDONIA 14/1 Each Way
KASHMIRI SUNSET 2/1 Saver
The horses I fancy most today are big prices
Quite a difficult trio to separate
RENE MATHIS is a Pricewise horse but I had
chosen him before I knew that and I think he
is a great price but surely in the hardest race.
I have to save on Highland Colori (3.30) which
annoys me as I don't like his profile but purely
on soft ground numbers he has to be a saver.
TALMADA and CALEDONIA could easily win
but both could flop as well for various reasons.
York 4.45
CALEDONIA 14/1 Each Way
KASHMIRI SUNSET 2/1 Saver
I can't stand the messy staking in the 4.45pm.
To £10 Stakes it would be £3 E/W and £4 Win
There is an alternative
York 4.45 - Without The Favourite Market
CALEDONIA is 8/1 in this market
Only 5 bookmakers price it up
2 of these are not allowing each way bets
I've backed him without the favourite
10/1 without the favourite at Corals seems big
Not nearly enough will be able to get on
I've made a dogs dinner of the staking this
F r i d a y s S u m m a r y
No long laborious previews yesterday with the
Cesarewitch work taking up message time but
from 5 mini previews we had decent 2 winners.
I was delighted Little Jon won especially at 8/1
a perfect example of how profiling can work in
National Hunt racing. The other winner Mansuri
beat a negative well. These two bets winning in
five races was not bad work and won far more
than needed to cover the 3 losers. Always nice
to see short snappier previews working well.
S h o r t P r i c e N e g a t i v e s (Pilot)
3 Today
Hexham 3.20 - Clondaw Knight 15/8
I wasn't going to bother but there has
been a big gamble on him so I will do.
Hexham 4.35 - Itchymei´mscratch 9/4
Hexham 4.35 - Uisge Beatha 3/1
Not sure if 2 horses in the same race is
cheating or not but both had questions.
Running Total
3 Correct
3 Wrong
P r o f i l e s @ P r e v i e w s
Y o r k 1.50
5/1 Empress Ali, 6/1 Examiner, 6/1 Indy
6/1 Lacan, 6/1 Master Of Finance, 10/1 Braidley
10/1 Lily Rules, 12/1 Shot In The Sun, 14/1 End Of Line
14/1 God Willing, 20/1 Imshivalla.
This 3yo handicap is over an awkward 1m 208yd
distance and for that reason and also the lack of
similar races at this time of year I have looked at
all similar 3yo handicaps over 8f 9f 10f in October.
* No horses from Listed or Group races won
* INDY fails this and is too inexperienced for my liking
* LILY RULES fails this and I hate her draw
* This Course and Distance is best left to low draws
* Since 2010 horses drawn 9 or more were 1-91
* EXAMINER is not drawn well in Stall 10
* No winners won after losing by over 9 lengths last time out
* BRAIDLEY is rejected hammered last time
* GOD WILLING didn't do enough last time
* END OF LINE was beaten further than any winners
* LACAN was beaten further than any other winners
* He only has 4 runs after being well beaten
* Asking a lot for him to bounce back and win this
* IMSHIVALLA hasn't done enough after 17 runs
* Every chance she won't stay in this class
* A good last run is an advantage
* EMPRESS ALI won last time out
* That may not be such a good thing in this class
* Hard enough to win 1 similar race not two
* I looked at horses that won their previous race
* The only winners were lightly raced maiden winners
* Horses winning handicaps last time are 0-14
* Horses winning with 4 or more career runs were 0-13
* Not a strong stat but a pointer against him
* EMPRESS ALI is not a horse I want to risk
* SHOT IN THE SUN is a bit on the exposed side
* The ground is a concern as well and she is unsafe
* That said the 2011 winner was a well raced filly
* MASTER OF FINANCE has 12 runs from a Handicap
* I found 1 similar winner who won this race in 2012
Selection
Not sure about this.
MASTER OF FINANCE came out best for me
I was a bit inflexible when applying my angles
May have rushed it a bit as well
Non runner (s) would bring Examiner more into it
Confusing as it is- I will split stake this
MASTER OF FINANCE 7/1 Win Bet
EXAMINER 7/4 Place Bet
C h e p s t o w 2.00
5/4 Full Blast, 4/1 Karezak, 5/1 Brook
11/2 Russian Bolero, 17/2 Golden Doyen
16/1 Magic Magnolia, 25/1 Maid Of Tuscany
25/1 Sheer Poetry, 33/1 Foot Soldier
50/1 Hopeigetlucky, 50/1 Lady Knight
66/1 Planet Rock, 66/1 Symphony Of Pearls.
This is a Juvenile Hurdle a race that Paul Nicholls
has a 5-7 record in. If you bet his FULL BLAST an
unraced French recruit you are getting anything
from useless donkey to a racing certainty but the
chances are given the track and this meeting and
the stable modus operandi that FULL BLAST has
to be more towards certainty than Donkey. There
is no way of knowing how he will do but you get
a lot of superficial factors in your favour. It looks
and smells like BROOK is fancied another we do
not know about. BROOK is far stronger as well
in the market. I will stay with FULL BLAST but in
an each way double with stablemate at 2.35pm.
Selection
Chepstow 2.00 - FULL BLAST 7/4
Chepstow 2.35 - EMERGING TALENT 11/8
Each Way Double
C h e p s t o w 2.35
5/4 Shelford, 13/8 Emerging Talent, 5/1 Sivron
16/1 Arty Campbell, Flying Bandit, 16/1 Kleitomachos
20/1 Wizards Bridge, 50/1 Alberto´s Dream
50/1 Kayf Charmer, 66/1 Mutashabek.
* This 2m 4f Novice hurdle is dominated by 2 horses
* SHELFORD v EMERGING TALENT
* There are powerful arguments for both
* EMERGING TALENT is 5 years old
* He comes from a bumper last year
* He has 1 previous race in a Bumper last year
* He won that Bumper last year
* I ran that profile in every novice hurdle in October
* There was an excellent 8-19 record
* I isolated those that ran in 2m 4f races like this
* 11 horses tried with this profile and 8 won
* 2 3 W W W 10 W W W 8 W
* EMERGING TALENT has a brilliant profile
* He has been well touted as a Nicholls future star
* SHELFORD has a far less exciting profile
* He was a 90 rated Flat horse though
* He has hurdling experience and sets a good standard
* He is going to take a lot of stopping
* He is a big powerful horse built for this track
Selection
You would have to say it is understandable why
some may prefer SHELFORD but at the prices
there are reasons to bet EMERGING TALENT as
well and in a race either may win I'll go for him.
EMERGING TALENT 11/8
Win Bet
N e w m a r k e t 2.40
9/2 Provenance, 5/1 Albasharah, 11/2 Blue Waltz
10/1 Marsh Daisy, 10/1 Talmada, 12/1 Audacia
12/1 La Banderilla, This Is The Day, 14/1 Vanity Rules
14/1 Wahgah, 20/1 Island Remede, 20/1 Kallisha
20/1 Mutatis Mutandis, 20/1 Perfect Light, 20/1 Placidia
20/1 Toast Of The Town, 25/1 Cosseted
25/1 Nullarbor Sky, 50/1 Magic Art.
The Severals Stakes is a Listed race for female
horses over 10f. This is such a lethal race one I
do tend to ignore. I just wanted to point out one
or two angles and try and narrow it down a bit.
* This race suits horses with absences
* Recent winners included horses absent this long
* 77 98 17 357 156 13 363 47 10 132 103 56 days
* Every winner in the last 16 years were aged 3-4
* ALBASHARAH is the only horse not that age
* Must have chances of beating him with 1 run this year
* Horses from Handicaps have struggled in this
* Horses aged 3 from Handicaps are only 1-40
* The one winner was an outsider with a recent run
* BLUE WALTZ is not like any winners from a handicap
* PLACIDIA - THIS IS THE DAY - WAHGAH also fail that
* I am against 4 year olds from handicaps
* NULLARBOR SKY - MAGIC ART - COSSETED fail this
* TOAST OF THE TOWN took 6 runs to win a maiden so is out
* KALLISHA - PERFECT LIGHT are rated too low
* MUTATIS MUTANDIS looks unsafe from the draw
* ISLAND REMEDE has a weak profile
* AUDACIA - Horses aged 4 are weak from 8f races
* VANITY RULES may just lack enough class
* MARSH DAISY - I think Stall 19 of 19 may beat her
* LA BANDERILLA - This is a good race for seasonal debutants
* 2 winners did it with 6 runs and she has 9
* Maybe a bit exposed but I can't rule her out
* The market is suggesting No
Shortlist
* PROVENANCE - No strong objections to her
* TALMADA 3yo down from 12f with an absence
* The 2004 winner did it with 4 runs from the Oaks
* TALMADA is less convincing from the Ribblesdale
* If she has improved she could play a role
* Given how many win with long absences
* Her trainer states she has been laid out for the race
* 3 year olds absent 100 + days
* Under 7 career starts
* Coming from a Pattern race
* 3 winners in 2003 2004 2009
Selection
TALMADA 10/1
Each Way
H e x h a m 2.45
3/1 Jennys Melody, 100/30 Be My Present
7/2 I C Gold, 11/2 Bobs Lady Tamure
10/1 Nautical Twilight, 10/1 Petre´ Island
11/1 Definitely Glad, 16/1 Attente De Sivola
33/1 Bracing, 100/1 Kaylan´s Rose.
* This is a Mares Novice Hurdle
* I looked at all these races in October-November
* I looked at horses coming from a Bumper
* Horses aged 4 and 5 doing this were dreadful
* They had a combined record of 2-209
* JENNYS MELODY fails this and is opposed
* PETRE´ ISLAND and BRACING also fail this
* DEFINITELY GLAD pulled up in a Chase 8 days ago
* I couldn't bet a profile like that
* NAUTICAL TWILIGHT - Her last run puts me off
Shortlist
* ATTENTE DE SIVOLA is risky but has been backed
* I'd have ignored her without market support
* Her owners often have very useful horses
* I C GOLD - I see her as a positive with a recent win
* Statistically though she is a complete Neutral
* BE MY PRESENT is another neutral profile
* BOBS LADY TAMURE is a 7yo debutant
* Look 7yo debutants from maiden hurdles last year
* There were 3 horses that tried
* They finished W 4 W
* Tempted to say BOBS LADY TAMURE is the bet
* Statistically the issue is complicated
* The two winners had 2 + 4 hurdle runs
* BOBS LADY TAMURE has 7 hurdle runs
* No seasonal debutants won with 5 + hurdle runs (0-12)
* That stops me saying it's a good profile
* Because of that I'm split staking this race
Selection
Split Stake Bet
BE MY PRESENT 5/2 Win Bet
BOBS LADY TAMURE 4/5 Place Bet
H e x h a m 3.20
11/4 Clondaw Knight, 7/2 Sergeant Pink
11/2 Qoubilai, 6/1 Mister Wall Street, 8/1 Allanard
8/1 Moyode Wood, 9/1 Mighty Whitey
12/1 Work Boy.
* This is a 2m 4f Handicap Chase
* I looked at all 201 similar races in October
* Thats 201 similar handicaps over 2m 3f 2m 4f 2m 5f
* CLONDAW KNIGHT is a 6yo seasonal debutant
* He ran in a Chase when last seen
* I looked at all similar 6 year olds
* There was a disappointing 2-49 record
* Those from a Novice Handicap Chase like him are 0-19
* Those with under 7 Chase runs like him are 0-32
* I looked at every handicap chase in October
* Thats at every distance in Class 3 or lower
* Horses aged 6 having their seasonal debuts
* Coming from Novice Handicap Chases
* Having under 6 chase starts
* I found a 0-21 record with these horses
* CLONDAW KNIGHT fails this as well
* May angles show he may be a weak favourite
Selection
My angles suggest Clondaw Knight is beatable
My main argument is he is the wrong favourite
Any Selection would have to be a guess !
SERGEANT PINK 9/2 is suggested as a saver
QOUBILAI each way 7/1 the main bet in the race
Y o r k 3.30
7/2 Aetna, 7/1 Mass Rally, 7/1 Watchable
10/1 Highland Colori, 12/1 Spinatrix
12/1 Supplicant 16/1 Highland Acclaim,
20/1 Another Wise Kid, 20/1 Ashpan Sam
20/1 Chilworth Icon, 20/1 Compton Park
20/1 Fast Shot, 20/1 Out Do, 20/1 Seeking Magic
25/1 Fairway To Heaven, 25/1 Rene Mathis
33/1 Racy, 33/1 Rex Imperator, 40/1 Arnold Lane.
* This is a Class 2 Handicap over 6f
* October has 25 of these races
* It includes 11 renewals of this race
* Fitness is a very important factor here
* You want at least 6 runs this season and recent run
* Past winners had the following days absence
* 21 7 8 14 21 14 14 15 8 10 days
* AETNA has impressed a few people but I oppose her
* She is a filly with just 1 run in the last 120 days
* Thats not a fit enough profile
* I looked at every class 2 handicap in October
* Thats any and every distance in this class
* I looked at all fillies ged 4 or more
* They all had at least 2 runs in the previous 3 months
* AETNA has only 1 in the last 4 months
* Besides that look at the 25 similar races
* Fillies have a 0-38 record and won none of them
* Rightly or wrongly statistically I must oppose her
* While we are on the subject of females -
* SPINATRIX is a 6yo mare who was 5th in this last year
* She's higher in the weights this year
* She did so well to win at her favourite Ripon last time
* I don't see her defying a career high mark at York
* I want a recent race in such a hot handicap
* All 25 winners ran within 27 days
* All York winners ran within 21 days
* HIGHLAND COLORI has lots to prove absent 50 days
* FAIRWAY TO HEAVEN - ARNOLD LANE absent too long
* WATCHABLE is 4 and has 8 career starts
* In 25 similar races there were 9 winners aged 4
* These had 20 30 25 17 23 31 22 21 12 previous runs
* Horses aged 4 with under 12 runs were 0-22
* WATCHABLE fails that
* Only 1 won with under 17 runs
* Lightly raced 4 year olds don't seem to win these races
* The already rejected AETNA falls into this category too
* WATCHABLE may become the first
* Without a similar type winning I look elsewhere
* There were 7 winners coming from 5f races
* These were all aged 3-4-5
* Horses aged 6 or more from 5f races were 0-35
* RACY fails this and is unsafe
* FAST SHOT also fails it and is badly drawn
* COMPTON PARK is the wrong type of 7yo
* CHILWORTH ICON - Rejected as exposed 4yo from 5f
* REX IMPERATOR isn't running well enough
* His numbers on soft ground are some way behind
* Horses aged 6 or more are 5-146
* Poor strike rate and I want a good reason to bet one
* SEEKING MAGIC is 6 and limited form on the ground
* MASS RALLY won this race last year and we were on
* This year he is a 7 year old so it will be harder
* Horses aged 7 or more are 2-82
* Both winners had recent runs over 7f
* Horses aged 7 + from 6f or shorter are 0-70
* Horses aged 7 + absent over 2 weeks are 0-45
* MASS RALLY fails both those angles
* Love him after last year but no room for sentiment
* OUT DO - Not keen on draw or profile
* ANOTHER WISE KID is unsafe from a conditions race
* He is now at his peak judged on his recent ratings
* This is still a career high mark though
* He's never won in this class either
* His soft ground numbers are not good enough
* Horses aged 3 have a 4-92 record
* Horses aged 3 with 12 or more career runs are 1-50
* HIGHLAND ACCLAIM has this profile
* The one winner ran much closer than him last time
* That winner also had 12lbs less weight
* His 6f soft ground form is not impressive
* Too many risks for me so he is rejected
* Horses aged 3 with 12 or more career runs are 1-50
* SUPPLICANT has this profile as well
* I don't want to trust him in a big field
* ASHPAN SAM - I don't like Stall 20 here
* He also has a 7lbs claimer and a poor last run
* Not the best circumstances for a career best he needs
* Racing Post Ratings of 100 or more
* Achieved only over this 6f distance on Soft
* Must be in the past two years
116 Highland Colori
112 Spinatrix
110 Highland Colori - Mass Rally - Ashpan Sam
109 Mass Rally - Supplicant
107 Spinatrix - Mass Rally
106 Aetna
104 Watchable
103 Mass Rally
102 Spinatrix - Fairway To Heaven - Compton Park
102 Ashpan Sam
100 Spinatrix
Shortlist
* HIGHLAND COLORI has lots to prove absent 50 days
* I should oppose him on that but I shortlist him
* His trainer is more than capable
* He also tops my Racing Post Ratings table
* He has the best 6f soft ground run in the race
* RENE MATHIS is 4 and has 18 runs
* I like that as 4yo winners tend to be experienced
* RENE MATHIS was improving in July-August
* That improvement was blunted in 2 fast ground runs
* He is a better horse on softer ground
* I thought he ran an excellent race at Leopardstown
* That was further than ideal and he was badly hampered
* I can forgive his Ayr Gold Cup run
* Faster ground than ideal and drawn bang in the middle
Selection
RENE MATHIS 20/1 Each Way
HIGHLAND COLORI 12/1 Saver
N e w m a r k e t 3.50
6/1 Quick Jack, 10/1 Big Easy, 14/1 Moidore
14/1 Nearly Caught, 14/1 Swnymor, 16/1 Brass Ring
16/1 Ray Ward, 16/1 Rhombus, 16/1 Suegioo
20/1 Communicator, 20/1 De Rigueur, 20/1 Mubaraza
20/1 Noble Silk, 20/1 Teak, 25/1 Digeanta, 25/1 Earth Amber
25/1 Groovejet, 25/1 Saddler´s Rock, 33/1 Debdebdeb
33/1 Jonny Delta, 33/1 Sohar, 33/1 Spice Fair
33/1 Ted Spread, 33/1 Villa Royale, 40/1 Argent Knight
40/1 Gabrial´s King, 40/1 Lady Kashaan
40/1 Sir Frank Morgan, 40/1 Waterclock
50/1 Gabrial´s Star, 50/1 Laughing Jack, 50/1 Sula Two
50/1 Very Good Day, 66/1 Mr Burbidge.
I sent the Cesarewitch analysis yesterday
and came up with a shortlist of four horses.
DE RIGUEUR 20/1 - RHOMBUS 20/1
COMMUNICATOR 20/1 - SUEGIOO 16/1
Final Selection
SUEGIOO 16/1 Win bet
COMMUNICATOR 20/1 Win bet
H e x h a m 3.55
Little interest in a 3m handicap hurdle I don't
have time to think about. Just one negative.
* I don't fancy Bourne
* Horses by Linamix over 2m5f or more
* Running in Class 3 or higher grade
* I don't think he gets home in this class
* Too Big To Lay as win bet
* Maybe a Place Lay
* Personally I'd like to oppose him in a match bet
F a i r y h o u s e 4.00
2/1 Theatre Bird, 5/2 Ballychorus
11/4 Pumped Up Kicks, 9/1 Painted Lady
14/1 Spanish Boots, 20/1 Mallards In Flight
20/1 Maple Valley Gold, 33/1 Distracted
33/1 Dream Beat.
These Mares Beginners Chase are quite rare
but what few there are have yet to be won by
a 5 year old. Because of this Ballychorus and
Painted Lady are overlooked. Not a safe angle
based on so few similar races but I'll follow it.
Selection
Half Stakes on each horse
THEATRE BIRD 5/4
PUMPED UP KICKS 4/1
C h e p s t o w 4.20
5/2 Dawalan, 7/2 Dormello Mo
7/2 Manhattan Swing, 5/1 Dispour
9/1 Mandy´s Boy, 10/1 Bertimont
11/1 After Eight Sivola.
This is a 4yo handicap hurdle
If you bet horses that are absent a few months
in this race with 4-5 previous hurdle runs you
will land on the winner more times than not.
MANHATTAN SWING is the only horse with a
recent run. In fact he has 3 so his case might
be aided by his fitness. I don't fancy him with
so few past winners having recent races. He
shouldn't be favourite. MANHATTAN SWING
has Racing Post Ratings of 117 119 112 over
hurdles. History shows it will take a 131 at a
bare minimum to win this and probably a far
bigger number. I'd look for an alternative.
Finding the right alternative is impossible if
you don't guess and under 8 runners offer
us no safety. My biggest concern about the
sexy DAWALAN is on his comeback run in
2013 he badly needed the run and it would
annoy me to choose him and watch him be
beaten through fitness. Given Paul Nicholls
good record in this DORMELLO MO could
be the safer bet and we could have a saver.
Selection
DORMELLO MO 4/1 Win Bet
DAWALAN 9/4 Saver Bet
H e x h a m 4.35
15/8 Ride The Range, 2/1 Itchymei´mscratch
5/2 Uisge Beatha, 10/1 Turtle Cask, 20/1 Tetralogy
25/1 Galleons Way, 33/1 Destiny Awaits
100/1 Watchmego.
Interesting little Maiden Hurdle
ITCHYMEI´MSCRATCH ran in a Bumper 64 days ago
All novice + maiden hurdles in October
Horses aged 6
Coming from Bumper
Running within 3 months
Beaten last time
Horses with this profile were just 1-64
ITCHYMEI´MSCRATCH has this rather weak profile
All novice + maiden hurdles in October
I Looked at horses from Bumpers
Absent 366 + days over 1 full calendar year off
Aged 6 or more
Beaten last time
I found a 0-92 record with similar horses
UISGE BEATHA fails this statistic
I had 2 horses with superior profiles
RIDE THE RANGE 2/1
TURTLE CASK 10/1
Not sure how my angles will work out.
Too complicated to worry too much about
These are the only 2 horses I can shortlist
Y o r k 4.45
7/2 Kashmiri Sunset, 13/2 Miss Macnamara
15/2 Nashville, 9/1 Hot Spice, 10/1 Deepsand
11/1 Caledonia, 11/1 Dr Irv, 12/1 La Bacouetteuse
12/1 Mister Pagan, 14/1 Cape Tribulation
14/1 Hidden Justice, 14/1 Longshadow
16/1 Rock On Bollinski, 20/1 Be Perfect
20/1 High Office, 25/1 Albonny 40/1 Montaff.
Felt this 2m 2f handicap was interesting
Scanned a few quick stats
Looked at some breeding stats
* I'm against the long absentee horses
* CAPE TRIBULATION - HIDDEN JUSTICE fail this
* MISTER PAGAN also fails this
* BE PERFECT - Lots to prove on current form
* HIGH OFFICE - Not sure of stamina or fitness for an 8yo
* DEEPSAND has stamina to prove
* NASHVILLE - Shortlist rather than Selection
* DR IRV - Promising profile but bad record in big fields
* KASHMIRI SUNSET has to be shortlisted but to skinny
* CALEDONIA - 4th in last years race and good value
I've not done the race in any great detail but my instinct
tells me to consider KASHMIRI SUNSET as a saver and
go with CALEDONIA each way with history in the race.
Selection
Staked to £10
£3 Each Way CALEDONIA 16/1
£4 Win KASHMIRI SUNSET 2/1
C h e p s t o w 5.30
5/1 Monbeg Dude, 7/1 Benbens, 7/1 Highland Lodge
7/1 Rebel Rebellion, 10/1 Carruthers, 10/1 Gas Line Boy
10/1 Twirling Magnet, 12/1 Handy Andy, 14/1 De La Bech
14/1 Forgotten Gold, 14/1 Trafalgar, 16/1 Night Alliance
16/1 The Italian Yob, 20/1 Cloudy Bob
25/1 Victors Serenade.
0-148 3m Handicap Chase. I would avoid both
MONBEG DUDE and BENBENS as neither of
them look likely to be at their best today. Also
out is CARRUTHERS and REBEL REBELLION
unlikely first time out winners. They have plenty
of weight in a race that invariably goes to one
of the runners with 11st or less. Since 2003 we
have a 0-23 record with horses absent longer
than 3 months if carrying over 11st 5lbs which
also puts me off TWIRLING MAGNET as well.
I should oppose CLOUDY BOB is beaten in a
Novice Handicap last time out. I looked at the
record of seasonal debutants coming from a
Novice Chase. None of them won when 6 year
olds and THE ITALIAN YOB fails this and may
be one to avoid. So might DE LA BECH as he
might need the run judging my past seasonal
debuts. I don't fancy NIGHT ALLIANCE either.
* There are some others I can't rule out
* I see these as dangerous floaters
* FORGOTTEN GOLD - VICTORS SERENADE are two
* GAS LINE BOY - HANDY ANDY are two more
* None appeal as selections but could win
* HIGHLAND LODGE is certainly shortlistable
* He is quite short though and may be good saver
* TRAFALGAR - The last 4 winners had recent runs
* I will take a chance on him with the above saver
* Just not a race I can be very confident about.
****************************************************
****************************************************
Best Wishes
Guy Ward
www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk
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