Mathematician 2252
Saturday February 27th
1 Bet Today
0 Negative
7 Races Discussed
7 Previews Today
The Eider Chase is a big target race
Happy enough with my work in this race
The Dilemma today was simple
Should be go down the speculative likely
to fail route with a 25/1 Eider Chase Bet ?
Or Should we go with a bet at shorter odds ?
My best options there are in unpredictable markets.
Much as they are far more likely winners
In the end I decided to stay with the Eider Chase
Today's Bet
Newcastle 2.50
Eider Chase
Staked to £10
WILLIAM MONEY 25/1
£3.50 Each Way
Savers
£2.00 Win Bet ROCKING BLUES 9/1
£1.00 Win Bet SHOTGUN PADDY 9/1
No Bookmakers offer 5 places today
Corals do offer Money back if falling.
There will be a Sunday Message
T o d a y s M e s s a g e
I will start with the Eider Chase
Newcastle 2.50
£3.50 Each Way William Money 25/1 +
£2.00 Win Bet Rocking Blues 9/1
£1.00 Win Bet Shotgun Paddy 9/1
All week I have fancied Rocking Blues
He was expected to have been today's bet
But a 17 year old boy takes the ride
I have ran some analysis around this kid
The result of this work relegates him to saver
But a horse I still want to finish in front with
Shotgun Paddy is another saver
Could destroy these given his class
But chances are he wont do this
And I don't like relying on his trainer
He always appealed as a natural saver
My main bet is William Money at 25/1 +
I got to him partly down to Breeding stats
With a bit of ageism and sexism thrown in
But it is not too hard to build a case for him
William Money is far too big a price today
I have gone with this Bet
Mainly because of the price
And because my other bets are complicated
Navan 1.55
£4 Each Way All Souls 7/2
£2 Win Calin Des Ongrais 9/2
Chepstow 4.20
Arthur´s Oak 5/2
Win Bet
Lingfield 4.30
£8 Win Lady Lloyd 9/4
£2 Win Rampers 7/2
The favourites in these 3 races don't appeal to me
ARTHURS OAK should I hope beat his favourite
But a small field increases the chance of every runner
LADY LLOYD and RAMPERS are 2nd 3rd favourites of 4
The 5/4 favourite fails an interesting statistic
The debate is whether the overall risk is worth it
It means we get 13/8 LADY LLOYD + cash back with Rampers
I really like the Navan 1.55
I have evidence against the favourite
But I really wanted to go each way in this race
I'm not sure if prices allow that with a saver
ALL SOULS is an unraced hurdler
That adds an extra element of doubt
I'd like to save on Calin Des Ongrais as well
No control over this market at all
ALL SOULS could end up being shorter or could drift
It is Messy but a Win Bet and saver brings other risks
None of the 3 alternative bets
Can be said to be outstanding prices
I am itching to go with the 1.55 NAVAN bet
Much as I hate the congested staking in the race
In the end I stayed with the Eider Chase Bet
N e g a t i v e s
No Negative Today
I could have gone for 2 horses
Navan 1.55 Unyielding 11/10
Lingfield 4.30 Grecian King 5/4
The problem with UNYIELDING
is the 2nd favourite has never jumped a hurdle
And the 3rd favourite may not get home
UNYIELDING we know has ability on the flat
My Breeding Stats see him as vulnerable
But the opposition we are in the dark about
The problem with GRECIAN KING
is only 2 possible horses can beat him
It is a tiny field which gives him a far easier task
The horses beaten in the statistic he fails
Mostly had many more runners against them
Results of Negatives
22 correct bets from 29
F r i d a y s S u m m a r y
Yesterdays bet was a loser on Wizards Bridge
who like most in the race did not finish a very
gruelling race. Only two horses completed an
eventfull chase. The winner was a Statbuster
as the first horse sired by Sir Harry Lewis that
has won over 3m 4f or more. I am always sorry
to see a good statistic fall. I looked back over
past messages and the first time we opposed
this sires horses was Boxing Day 2007 when I
opposed a horse called Mr Preacher Man who
lost. We started opposing all his chasers over
3m 4f and more again on Boxing Day in 2013 a
horse called Musical Wedge who was beaten.
Back then this statistic was 0-33 and we have
had a good run with this sire and watched the
0-33 statistic become a 0-58 one and now this
becomes a 1-59 statistic. This is no surprise.
You have a small field. Throw in a few fallers
and some non stayers and they do sometimes
win and defy breeding stats but I'd have little
worry about opposing them in similar races a
lot more in the future. Our horse did not cope
with the race like most of the others so it has
gone down as a losing bet which is a shame.
P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s
N a v a n 1.55
4/5 Unyielding, 5/1 Calin Des Ongrais, 6/1 Azamesse
7/1 Traditional Dancer, 8/1 All Souls, 14/1 Our Lizzie
33/1 Last Garrison, 50/1 Lake Shore Drive
50/1 Plain Talking.
This is a 2m Maiden Hurdle for 4 year olds
We should be able to ignore the 4 outsiders
UNYIELDING sets the standard but not a high one
One run over hurdles and a Racing Post Rating of 92
That is really not a big standard at all
Look at the Racing Post Ratings of past winners
122 120 131 118 110 132 131 109 132
She is a long way from those numbers
So are all of them to be fair
This does look a weak renewal
I have a Breeding issue with UNYIELDING
He is sired by Oasis Dream
Look at Hurdlers by this sire
On Good to Soft or worse
Oasis Dream hurdlers have a 3-82 record
Those with under 5 previous hurdle runs were 0-46
UNYIELDING with 1 hurdle run fails this 0-46 record
Look at his hurdlers on any ground
When having Under 2 previous hurdle runs
They have a very modest 1-62 record
The only winner (Fighter Jet) won on Good to Firm
Those that ran on Good Ground or slower were 0-55
UNYIELDING again fits into this category
I am opposing this horse because of all this
AZAMESSE is a filly
She was beaten 33 lengths last time
I looked at fillies beaten 20 or more lengths last time
I find a 0-39 record in similar races
I don't see a good enough case to go with her
OUR LIZZIE has the same profile
Shortlist
CALIN DES ONGRAIS
ALL SOULS
CALIN DES ONGRAIS has raced once over hurdles
That was 58 days ago and he was well beaten
I can though match him to a winner
That horse was Sardinia who won at Wexford
He also had 1 run and a 58 day absence
He also had 3 career starts
He was also well beaten last time
CALIN DES ONGRAIS is then like a winner
The 2013 winner of this race
Also won with similar credentials
He won after a bad debut run and an absence
CALIN DES ONGRAIS may have had an excuse last time
He was reported to have come back Lame at Punchestown
We still don't truly know if he stays though
ALL SOULS is unraced over hurdles and in the UK
He did have 6 runs in France on the flat
I do not think we can rule him out
Not from Edward O'Gradys yard
He won this race in 2013 with a similar type
I looked at his record with unraced hurdlers
It is very interesting
In the last few years he has a 6-22 record
Look at those starting under 14/1
That becomes a 6-13 record
That included 3 seconds and a Third
ALL SOULS could be a big player here
I want to bet both these horses
ALL SOULS
CALIN DES ONGRAIS
But I don't want to sacrifice the each way
Selection
£4 Each Way ALL SOULS 7/2
£2 Win CALIN DES ONGRAIS 9/2
L i n g f i e l d 2.15
7/4 Ragner, 2/1 Aid To Africa, 9/2 The New Master
8/1 Canford Crossing, 10/1 Rock ´n Red, 20/1 Harry Holland.
This is a Mile maiden
Only 6 runners and quite messy
AID TO AFRICA didn't appeal much
Micheal Bell is not a trainer I like to rely on
This was not an expensive horse
If you look at his debut run
The 11/10 favourite in the race was rated 67
Thats not a high rating for a maiden
Yet AID TO AFRICA was 20/1 to beat a 67 rated horse
The horse that beat him had failed to win 8 times before
I just sense some limitations but I could be wrong
3 times he has gone to the Sales
Never reached more than 9 Grand
THE NEW MASTER needs to improve
But he should and he could be a big threat
RAGNER has better numbers and more experience
But he is a shorter price
I am split staking this race
Selection
£6 Win THE NEW MASTER 4/1
£4 Win RAGNER 7/4
L i n g f i e l d 2.45
4/1 Paddys Motorbike, 5/1 Plutocracy
5/1 Sunblazer 7/1 Latin Charm, 7/1 Royal Marskell
7/1 Sizzler 10/1 Be Perfect, 10/1 Ridgeway Storm
12/1 Masterpaver.
This is a 12f handicap for 0-97 rated horses
There are 115 similar races at this time of year
I think 3 of these will fail for fitness
BE PERFECT is 7 and absent 162 days
SIZZLER has raced just once since June 2014
He looks underraced to me
So to does LATIN CHARM
He has raced just once in 10 months
There are several horses down from 2m races
Horses coming from 2m races were 4-46
The 4 winners doing this had 10 12 16 17 runs
Those trying it with 20 or more runs were 0-30
If I look at 12f handicaps January to April
Both on Turf and on the Sand
Horses coming from 2m races in the last 3 months
With 20 or more career starts
Have a poor 1-62 record
I can consider a lighter raced horse doing this
But horses with 20 + runs doing it are unsafe
MASTERPAVER fails this statistic
SUNBLAZER has this problem with 39 runs
He actually won over 2 miles last time
Asking a lot to drop back 4f and win again
He is on a hat trick though and on a roll
RIDGEWAY STORM drops from 2m
Because he has under 20 runs I pass him as ok
I found 3 winners aged 5 from 2m with absences
None though aged 6 like him
Not a negative but others look safer
Shortlist
PLUTOCRACY is 6 and up in trip with a recent run
Plenty of 6 year olds won with that profile
They all had 20 or more runs though
PLUTOCRACY is unusual as he has just 15 runs
Not many for a 6 year old
Horses with his profile were 0-5
I see him as a neutral
PADDYS MOTORBIKE drops from a 2m race
He is unexposed though which makes him fine
Males aged 4 doing it with under 20 runs were 3-13
These had 10 13 16 previous runs
PADDYS MOTORBIKE with 14 runs looks fine
His sire hasn't bred a winner over 1m 6f or more
So the chances are he didn't stay 2 miles last time
ROYAL MARSKELL won a 12f handicap last time
I looked at horses aged 7 that did that recently
There was a surprisingly good 3-12 record
They won 10 14 18 days beforehand
It is a pretty good profile under the circumstances
Selection
£4 Each Way ROYAL MARSKELL 8/1
£2 Win Bet PADDYS MOTORBIKE 4/1
N e w c a s t l e 2.50
6/1 Ballyculla, 13/2 Shotgun Paddy, 7/1 Russe Blanc
8/1 Rocking Blues, 10/1 Portrait King, 12/1 Beforeall
12/1 Cultram Abbey, 12/1 Milborough, 14/1 Summery Justice
14/1 Woodford County, 14/1 Wyck Hill, 16/1 Cork Citizen
20/1 Lackamon, 20/1 Mysteree, 25/1 Glenquest
33/1 Presented, 33/1 William Money.
The Eider Chase is a handicap over 4m 1f
There are 15 recent renewals
I will start with some breeding Stats
These 5 horses come out best
They are from the safest sires in similar races
MILBOROUGH
WYCK HILL
RESENTED
PORTRAIT KING
WILLIAM MONEY
Handicap Chases over 3m 6f or more
Class 2 or higher
Any time of year
There are 76 of these marathon races
Horses aged 12 or more are just 1-127
That was 2014 Grand National winner Amberleigh House
I am against the horses aged 12 or more
GLENQUEST is rejected aged 13
WYCK HILL has to go as a 12yo seasonal debutant
He has won fresh but when a younger age
That 1-127 record all year round seals his fate
SUMMERY JUSTICE is rejected aged 12
If you take races at this time of year
Handicap Chases over 3m 6f or more
Class 2 or higher
Horses aged 11 or more
6 or more previous Chase starts
There is a 0-92 record with these horses
LACKAMON fails this angle
He's never won off this mark or in this class
PORTRAIT KING is also hard to like aged 11
Not when he is so far away from his best form
Horses with 1 run this season trouble me
Past winners had the following runs that season
3 3 5 2 5 3 4 4 6 7 7 4 5 7 4 3 6 6
None have won this race with just the 1 run
BEFOREALL is rejected with 1 run since April
He has never won from his mark or in this class before
CORK CITIZEN has only raced once this season too
It's a big ask for him given the ability he's shown so far
If you look at horses sired by Overbury
That run in Class 2 or higher
They are 0-39 over further than 3 miles
BALLYCULLA has raced just once since May
Throw in a 78 day break and his profile is unsafe
Past winners had the following absences
83 20 17 14 63 28 13 7 23 23 21 29 56
BALLYCULLA has longer off than all bar 1 recent winners
He has fewer recent races than all recent winners
There is also a stamina doubt
Look at horses sired by Westerner
This sire is not convincing over marathon trips
His only winner beyond 3m 2f came in a Class 5 race
Those that raced in Class 4 or higher are 0-16 so far
He is not safe on my breeding statistics
I want far more positives for a horse at 7/1
PRESENTED lacks the class off bottomweight
Since 1952 there has been 42 renewals of this race
Recent Eider winners had these Chase runs
11 5 7 13 21 9 7 13 13 8 16 11 9 19 29 13 17 9
CULTRAM ABBEY has just 4 Chase runs
That's fewer than any past winner of this race
He also comes from a 2m 3f race
Not acceptable with so few Chase runs
I also have him down as a doubtful stayer
MYSTEREE has only has 3 Chase runs
Recent Eider winners had these Chase runs
11 5 7 13 21 9 7 13 13 8 16 11 9 19 29 13 17 9
From a Novice Handicap Chase he is hard to like
His 3 Chase wins were in fields of 4 2 4 runners
This is considerably harder task
RUSSE BLANC won the Warwick Chase last time
I got him wrong last time
I didn't think he would stay
His sire is an Ex French flat bred
RUSSE BLANC is the sire's only runner
He stayed well enough to win that race
This is much further though
And the Warwick Chase is not a good trial race
Last time out winners are normally lighter raced
I have my doubts about him
But I can't argue a very strong case against him
Shortlist
I fancy óne of 5 horses
MILBOROUGH
WOODFORD COUNTY
ROCKING BLUES
SHOTGUN PADDY
WILLIAM MONEY
MILBOROUGH won this race last year
He did it with a 83 day absence and a mark of 134
This year he has a 91 day absence and mark of 140
Lightning will have to strike twice
But I have no strong angles against him
WOODFORD COUNTY was 3rd in this race last year
He has just finished 5th in the Welsh National
The record of horses from that race is inconclusive
He is a smart long distance Chaser
Obviously the risk is has he done too much
He's won a 3m 6f at Exeter
Then ran a fine 5th in the Welsh National
You certainly can't rule him out
He has placed in a Midlands National
He has placed in an Eider Chase
It was a toss up for the second saver
Between him and Shotgun Paddy
ROCKING BLUES is 11 years old
He is not ideal as a horse this age
In similar races in January to March
We know horses aged 11 with 6 + Chase runs are 0-92
ROCKING BLUES fails that statistic
But I would cut him sock slack
He only had 1 race before he was 7 years old
He is very lightly raced for his age
He has bolted up in his last 2 races
His Racing Post Rating last time was 138
That suggests to me he is well treated off 126 today
He has to prove stamina of course
And prove he can deliver in a big field
He was always the natural bet in the race
But I have issues with his jockey (see below)
SHOTGUN PADDY is the class horse with Topweight
He unseated rider when favourite for this last year
The Class horse very often wins this race
Two runs this year I would rather have 3
But he only faces a 0-141 Class field today
He has enough Class to overcome that
I failed his profile in last years race
To much weight for an 8 year old
That now does not apply as a 9yo
SHOTGUN PADDY was 3rd in the Welsh National
The record of horses from that race is inconclusive
Obviously it could count against him
But I would want him on my side
I don't discount the chance he could outclass these
WILLIAM MONEY may well have a chance
He has a sire who has to be respected
16 Chase starts is really only 14 Chase starts
As he has twice fallen at the first fence before
Not too worried about that given his price
He is consistent record over fences
He won his last race of the 2015 season at Haydock
That was a personal best and a rating of 121
Today he only has a rating of 122 to overcome
This year his form is 6th Fell PU 7th
WILLIAM MONEY needed his 1st run of the season
He then Fell at the first fence at Newcastle
This meant that when he went to Kelso in December
He was short of runs
I made him a Negative at Kelso
That day He had the longest absence or every runner
And also carried the biggest weight that day
He was never going to win a heavy ground 4 miler
With Topweight and just 1 run that season
He was beaten a long way at Haydock last time
Always forgive any horse any run at Haydock
Besides that he probably was not there to win this
This is probably the race he has been laid out for
Given the price I think this is a very interesting bet
Conclusion
There is no doubt at all
That if he was ridden by a Professional jockey
ROCKING BLUES would be my bet and a confident one
I have run into some doubts
Because he is ridden by a 10lbs claimer
Lorcan Murtagh is 17 years and 5 months old
With a name like that he should be good
But he is still only a Boy
He has never won a race beyond 3 miles
He has Never ridden in this Class or higher
He has a career record of 4 wins from 63 rides
Look at his record in fields of 10 + runners
In bigger sized fields he has a 0-32 record
I have looked at 8lbs and 10lbs claimers
Running in Chases
Class 3 or higher
8 or more runners
None have won a race beyond 3m 1f
Not at any time of year
I feel I just can't trust this Kid
He would have been my bet with a better pilot
I have to save on him
If I have misjudged this Kid
Then it would be too painful to watch him win
SHOTGUN PADDY could easily have been Number 1
Not overkeen on his trainer as you know
And he is just as capable of getting himself beaten
I can make a good case on Class for him
But I am happier with him as a saver
This leaves WILLIAM MONEY
He is the main bet partly because of the price
Partly because you can build a case around him
Selection
£3.50 Each Way WILLIAM MONEY 25/1 +
£2.00 Win Bet ROCKING BLUES 9/1
£1.00 Win Bet SHOTGUN PADDY 9/1
K e m p t o n 4.10
11/4 Clean Sheet, 6/1 Mccabe Creek, 7/1 Sir Ivan
15/2 Vicenzo Mio, 8/1 Hannibal The Great, 8/1 Kublai
9/1 Poker School, 12/1 Thunder Sheik, Shammick Boy
16/1 King Kayf, Kingscourt Native, 20/1 Blue Atlantic
40/1 Vif Argent.
This is a classy 2m 5f Handicap Hurdle
Not enough time to do this race full justice
Clean Sheet did not convince me
He has raced just once in 12 months
Sexy connections but a flawed profile
I failed Kublai as well
His absence and 1 run since September bothers me
Mccabe Creek nearly had a good profile
The problem is the winners that had his profile
All came from better class races
Hannibal The Great can not be ruled out
Despite a huge absence he passes my angles
Vicenzo Mio is another I can't rule out
If I had to commit to one horse
SIR IVAN did have the best overall profile
112 similar Class 2-3-4 Handicap hurdles over 2m 5f
Males aged 6
Between 7 and 10 Career starts
Between 6 and 8 Hurdle starts
Coming from a handicap hurdle
Running within 5 weeks
Horses with this profile were 3-15
I can't find a profile that I preferred
SIR IVAN is therefore a speculative selection
Selection
SIR IVAN 8/1
Each Way
C h e p s t o w 4.20
2/1 Oscar Sunset, 3/1 Arthur´s Oak
4/1 Dresden, 4/1 Grey Gold
7/1 Dance Floor King.
This is a 2m Handicap Chase (Class 2)
February and March
2m Handicap Chases
Class 4 or higher
Look at horses from Novice Chases
With Under 4 Chase starts
They have a 3-57 record
However look at those from 2m Novice Chases
When having under 4 Chase starts they are 0-32
OSCAR SUNSET fails this 0-32 record
It doesn't take much to put me off the trainer
And this 0-32 record is enough to do that
I don't like OSCAR SUNSET's profile
The problem yet again is a small field
And not being able to rule horses out because of it
DANCE FLOOR KING has 420 days off the track
Not first choice but not ruled out in a tiny field
The same applies to GREY GOLD
I don't want an 11yo pulling up last time
There are 54 of these races February-March
Thats 54 Chases in Class 2 or higher over 2m
Horses aged 11 or more are 0-50 in them
GREY GOLD has this problem as well
DRESDEN doesn't leap off the page
But again in a small field he can't be ruled out
Best Profile
ARTHUR´S OAK
Horses aged 8
Winning 2m Handicap Chases last time
Running within 6 weeks
There is an excellent 8-18 record
Look at those like him
With between 6 and 8 Chase starts
You find a 3-4 record
ARTHUR´S OAK has this profile
It is comfortably the best in the race
Selection
ARTHUR´S OAK 5/2
Win Bet
L i n g f i e l d 4.30
11/8 Grecian King, 5/2 Lady Lloyd
4/1 Rampers 20/1 Frank Sandatra.
This is a 3yo Maiden over 5f
I thought there were some interesting issues here
GRECIAN KING ran 8 days ago
That was over 7 furlongs though
Today he drops down from 7f to 5f
January February March April May June
5f Maidens
Horses aged 3
Coming from 7f or further
Running in the previous 12 days
Horses with this profile were 1-49
That winner was a filly with 7 previous runs
Male horses with this profile were 0-26
Horses with under 7 runs with this profile were 0-33
GRECIAN KING has this profile
I don't see it as a safe profile
FRANK SANDATRA wouldn't be first choice
RAMPERS does have a chance
I would consider him for a saver
He is bordering on looking regressive though
My first choice is LADY LLOYD
I looked for 3yo fillies
Who dropped down from 6f races
Who had 9 career starts like her
I did find a winner with an identical profile
That was Rellim who won a similar race at Southwell
LADY LLOYD changed stables 2 runs ago
He went from Willie Jarvis to Phil McEntee
That has to be seen as an upgrade in stable
She has never run over 5f before
But she made the running over 6f last time
She was in front until 30 yards from the winning line
I think she can win this
Selection
£8 Win LADY LLOYD 9/4
£2 Win RAMPERS 7/2
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Best Wishes
Guy Ward
www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk