This is a copy of our horse racing advice for Saturday March 5th 2016
in order to help demo the style and nature of the service.

The RED bits I added in later to save you looking up results.

NB The Official results here as per the Profit Chart
only monitor the official bets.
ie just Newbury 2.15 and Doncaster 2.35 from the below.

A simple view point may be one of hours and hours of research
work done and written up on multiple races. But only the
best of it at 11 am ish market odds is elevated to official bet status.

==========================

Mathematician 2258

Saturday March 5th

2 Bets Today
0 Negative
7 Races Discussed

After a slow start to the week we arrive on
Saturday with a one bet one winner record
behind us. I took the controversial decision
to radically shorten yesterdays message to
lay myself out for today's. Results will show
if that was sensible but I feel like I have got
a potentially smart message today with bets
I do like to carry on a run of good Saturdays.

It's very unusual for me to have two bets on
any day. I just don't like working that way so
I hope this doesn't backfire. I am doing it as
we are over 2.5 points ahead this week and
will still finish ahead even if both lose so I'm
going to have two bets. If we don't win then
I probably won't do this again in a long time.

Two Bets Today

Newbury 2.15

Shotavodka 7/1-8/1 WON

Each Way

Doncaster 2.35

£7.50 Win Zeroeshadesofgrey 5/2 2nd

£2.50 Saver Sugar Baron 7/2 WON

Prices

Shotavodka 8/1 Corals Hills VC Bet365
Shotavodka 8/1 Skybet Betfair
Shotavodka 15/2 PPower Stan J Independants
Shotavodka 7/1 Elsewhere

Zeroeshadesofgrey 11/4 Stan J
Zeroeshadesofgrey 5/2 Corals Hills Betfair
Zeroeshadesofgrey 5/2 Tote Be365 Betfred PPower
Sugar Baron 7/2 Bet365 VC Hills Betfair
Sugar Baron 100/30 Generally

T o d a y s M e s s a g e

Last Saturdays message was far better than
I could have hoped for. Today's probably can
not be as good as I think it is but I have four
bets I strongly fancy. The ambiguous factor is
trying to choose the right one to stake which
very sadly is a lot down to luck and the odds.

7 Previews
4 Bets Highlighted
2 Staked as Bets
I fancy them all quite strongly

Newbury 2.15

Shotavodka 7/1

Each Way

WON

Unusual for me to bet an undersized horse
But I have 2 angles that persuade me he can win
If he avoids a big mistake he will go very close
He is my best priced and least complicated bet

Doncaster 2.35

£7.50 Win Zeroeshadesofgrey 11/4 2nd
£2.50 Saver Sugar Baron 7/2 WON

Bullish statements are foolish in small fields
But 5 runners and only these 2 matter
I will be very disappointed to lose money here

Gowran Park 2.45

Alameinn 7/2 - 4/1

Each Way

2nd

I think he has been underestimated
Best profile and should be favourite
But I am a bit short of negatives here
Surprised and disappointed if he isn't at least placed

Doncaster 3.10

£7.50 Win Yes I Did 9/4 Lost
£2.50 Win Briery Belle 7/2 2nd

Not convinced which of these is the best bet
Non runner has killed any each way options
Pretty confident but I need my main stat to work out

N e g a t i v e s

No Negative Today

Results of Negatives
22 correct bets from 29

P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s

G o w r a n P a r k 2.10

9/4 Get Out Of Jail, 7/2 Kings Line, 4/1 Shamash
6/1 Sarah Joyce, 12/1 Mustadaam, 14/1 Coeur De Lion,
14/1 Dixie Highway, 16/1 Queen Oscar, 25/1 Moonlight Art
33/1 Moreporter, 50/1 Ayelya, 50/1 I´m Forever Young.

This is a 2m maiden hurdle

It looks so weak it is hard to fancy anything
GET OUT OF JAIL and SHAMASH are stablemates

The Racing Post side with SHAMASH
She is unraced over hurdles
I suppose you can say that unlike most others
She has not yet blotted her copybook over hurdles
But she fails a Breeding Statistic I recently found

Hurdlers sired by Oasis Dream
On Good to Soft or worse
Oasis Dream hurdlers have a 3-84 record
Those with under 5 previous hurdle runs were 0-48
SHAMASH fails this 0-48 stat as she is unraced over hurdles

Look at Oasis Dream hurdlers on any ground
When having Under 2 previous hurdle runs
They have a very modest 1-63 record
The only winner (Fighter Jet) won on Good to Firm
Those that ran on Good Ground or slower were 0-56
SHAMASH fails this statistic as well
I am opposing SHAMASH because of all this

However I would not lay SHAMASH
She was an Aga Khan bred decent flat horse
There is far more money for her than anything else
Her main rivals were hammered recently as well
It is not unreasonable to think she may be better class
I am staying with my breeding stat and opposing her
But laying her early is foolish with so little on your side
If she went odds on in running I may get tempted to lay

SARAH JOYCE is rejected as a potential non stayer
One of my favourite sires The Carbon Unit
His flat runs don't seem to stay 10 furlongs
He hasn't sired a jumps winner either
I think lack of stamina has caused her poor hurdles form

It is still hard to choose any safe option
Many of these were absolutely thrashed recently
I don't want COEUR DE LION as a 4yo
When having just 1 race and beaten 140 lengths in that

QUEEN OSCAR is an unraced 4yo filly
She has never run before under any code
Similar horses in March were 0-27
Maybe she has ability but she must be risky
You'd be unlucky if she popped up to spoil your bet

KINGS LINE is respected
GET OUT OF JAIL is my first choice

Mainly because there is an explanation last time
He went off too fast in my opinion over 2m 3f
He was battling in front with a long odds on horse
That horse easily won as he should have
But GET OUT OF JAIL was still there 2f out
He ran out of steam and was understandably overtaken
He looked the 2nd best horse in that race to me
It was heavy ground last time at Clonmel
There is a stiff uphill climb to the line
Going off too fast meant he had nothing left
If he can recover from that he can win
He certainly has the best numbers anyway
I don't like doing this
But so few can win I'm going each way at 5/2 11/4 (Hills)

Selection

GET OUT OF JAIL 5/2

Each Way

WON

N e w b u r y 2.15

9/2 Pete The Feat, 11/2 Restless Harry, 7/1 Same Difference
8/1 Relax, 8/1 Shotavodka, 10/1 Pineau De Re
12/1 Aachen, 12/1 Alvarado, 12/1 Shuil Royale, 14/1 Masters Hill
14/1 So Fine, 20/1 Houston Dynimo.

This is a Veterans Handicap Chase
Open to horse aged 10 or more over almost 3m 2f

Not enough similar races to use meaningful angles
I have to make assumptions here
But I am opposing these horses
PINEAU DE RE - I don't want a 13yo who pulled up last week
ALVARADO - I am taking him on with a long absence
RELAX - Too many doubts about fitness and well being
SAME DIFFERENCE - Just 1 bad run since April. Not for me
SO FINE - It is almost 3 years since he jumped a fence

I respect the likes of PETE THE FEAT and RESTLESS HARRY
and either could win this race. But I have one profile drawing
me towards SHOTAVODKA that makes him the selection.

SHOTAVODKA

What I like about him
Is he is the best age (10)
He has a good recent run
I looked at similar profiles

Veterans Chases
3m 4f or shorter
Any Time of year
Horses aged 10
Running in the last 2 weeks
Beaten under 25 lengths in that race
There were 8 horses that had this profile
They finished in these positions

W 2 W 2 W W 2 W
That is a very healthy 5-8 record

He is not the biggest of horses
But he has a strong record on this track
It is his time of year
He ran well very recently
He has dropped 3lbs in the weights since then#
He is on a career low mark today
If you look at his individual record

SHOTAVODKA
Hurdles and Chases
January to May
Running within a Month
Class 2 or lower
Fields of 16 or lower
Ground softer than good
SHOTAVODKA has a 5-8 record in these circumstances
I just have him with far more positives than the rest

Selection

SHOTAVODKA 8/1

Each Way

WON

L i n g f i e l d 2.30

11/4 Lunar Deity, 9/2 Emell, 6/1 Lacan
6/1 Mister Universe, 7/1 Forceful Appeal
8/1 Basil Berry, 8/1 Unforgiving Minute
12/1 Bertiewhittle.

This is a Class 2 Handicap over 8f
There are 22 similar races in March
Small sample size but I wanted to do this race

Horses aged 7 or more won just 2 of the 22 races
LUNAR DEITY is a 7 year old
You might remember we backed him 3 weeks ago
I really fancied him that day because of fitness
He was the only fit horse in the race
All his opponents had raced just once in Months
None of the opposition were fit
LUNAR DEITY was and that is why he won
Today he meets better and fitter horses
I think he will struggle off a lifetime high mark

BERTIEWHITTLE is an 8yo
I don't want an 8yo going up in distance

FORCEFUL APPEAL is 8 and older than ideal
He has 35 days absence to overcome as well
Class 2 Handicaps in March
Run over 1m 2f and shorter
Horses aged 8 or more
Absent more than 21 days
There is a 0-35 record with these types
If I include Turf races that becomes a 1-78 record

BASIL BERRY has a stiff mark off 102
He has won before off 93 but no higher
His record in Class 2 handicaps is 0-14
Beaten a fair way last time he needs a career best

EMELL is a 6yo seasonal debutant
He has a 0-15 record over a mile or more
He may not stay this far in this class of race
He has never been seen as an All weather horse
I just wonder if this might be a prep race for the Lincoln

MISTER UNIVERSE is a 4yo seasonal debutant
In 22 similar races seasonal debutants were 1-47
That is a poor record and the only winner was a 6yo
Class 2 Handicaps in March
Run over 1m 2f and shorter
Male horses aged 4
Absent more than 4 months
There was a 1-41 record with similar horses
That winner (Benzanno) was quite similar
But he did have 13lbs less weight
MISTER UNIVERSE has a shaky profile
But you can not rule him out
You can see him outclassing these on some runs

UNFORGIVING MINUTE is hard to read
Two poor runs when big prices in Meydan 6 weeks ago
Lightly raced as a 5yo is a positive
Horses aged 5 with under 20 runs score well

LACAN downgraded stables 2 runs ago
It wasn't a big downgrade but it was one
He has ran twice for his new connections
Both runs on the Snow in St Moritz
Clearly hard to read because of that
He should be reasonably fit but there are doubts
You have to wonder if he is as good as he was
I am going to save on him
With the most recent run
But running over 4f last time on the snow
Is not really a profile I can begin to look at

Selection

Going for a Split Stake with 3 horses
2 Savers and a main bet

Split Stake

£6 Win Bet UNFORGIVING MINUTE 6/1 2nd

£2 Win Bet LACAN 6/1 4th

£2 Win Bet MISTER UNIVERSE 6/1 WON

D o n c a s t e r 2.35

7/2 Sugar Baron, 9/2 Waterclock
5/1 Zeroeshadesofgrey, 6/1 Fingertips,
25/1 Balmusette, 25/1 Clerk´s Choice.

This is a 3m handicap hurdle in Class 2
March has 68 similar races
It will take a lot of stamina here
3m on soft ground over hurdles in this sort of class

WATERCLOCK is sired by Notnowcato
This sire has not bred a hurdles winner past 2m 5f
That's not to say he can't but it is a worry
I like his overall profile
His profile is the same as Zeroeshadesofgrey (see below)
But stamina is my main concern
CLERK´S CHOICE is from a sire with no 3m winners
He is too old for a massive absence
The 11 winners of this race all ran within 6 weeks

FINGERTIPS is only a 4yo
In 68 similar races only 2 horses aged 4 raced
Both were predictably well beaten
Handicap Hurdles in March
2m 5f or more
Good to soft or softer
Class 6 or higher
Horses aged 4 are 0-22 in these races
I think this is too much for a 4 year old
FINGERTIPS also fails my breeding stats

Shortlist

SUGAR BARON is a lightly raced 6yo
There is weakness in his profile
Hammered last time and going up in distance
I can't rule him out but wanted a bit more
He is work in progress but a bit short of positives

ZEROESHADESOFGREY is interesting
I liked his profile
Horses aged 7
Running within 5 weeks
7-8-9 previous hurdle runs
Beaten last time but by under 10 lengths
There was a 4-9 record with his type in Class 3 handicaps
There was a 0-1 record with his type in Class 2 handicaps
ZEROESHADESOFGREY is close enough to respect

Selection

£7.50 Win ZEROESHADESOFGREY 11/4 2nd

£2.50 Win SUGAR BARON 7/2 WON

G o w r a n P a r k 2.45

2/1 Double Island, 5/2 Haymount, 4/1 Hard To Call
9/2 Alamein, 12/1 Talented Kid, 16/1 Wild Flyer
20/1 Humm Dinger, 33/1 Soul Season, 50/1 Kutitout
66/1 Anaglogs Dame, 66/1 Hawkeye Hero
66/1 Tuskar Island, 100/1 Diggin Deep
100/1 Railway Pearl, 100/1 Thats The News.

This is a 2m maiden hurdle

This is also a pretty complicated race
Not least because 4 and 5 year olds are not allowed

DOUBLE ISLAND and HAYMOUNT are similar
Both 7 year olds
Both down in trip
Both 3rd last time comfortably beaten
Not much to choose between them
I have both as neutral profiles
HAYMOUNT does have more experience
I do quite like that but they are hard to split
I have a better profile but can't make either negatives
HARD TO CALL is an unraced 6 year old
Can't be ruled out. But not my first choice

Win lose or draw
ALAMEIN has the best profile

Horses aged 6
Coming from a 2m maiden hurdle
Running within 31 days
Beaten under 20 lengths last time
5 or more Career starts
3 previous Hurdle races
Horses with this profile had a 3-7 record
ALAMEIN has this profile
The Racing Post feel 1 or 2 may be too strong for him
But my angles disagree

Selection

ALAMEIN 4/1

Each Way
2nd

D o n c a s t e r 3.10

9/4 Yes I Did, 100/30 The Organist
7/2 Briery Belle, 11/2 Hollies Pearl, 10/1 Buttercup
11/1 Samedi Soir, 33/1 Graceful Legend.

This is a 3m Novice for Mares in Listed Grade

The problem here is so few similar races
The 3 winners of this race were all vastly different

Whilst it may not be statistically safe to do this
If we look at all Mares 3m Novice Hurdles
Not just in Listed Grade but in all Classes
Then we are offered a statistic that could help

January February March April May June July August
Mares Novice Hurdle
2m 7f or longer
Any Class of race
There are only 18 of these races in these 8 months

Horses that came from 2m 2f or shorter were 0-42
Will this angle stands up in Listed Grade or not ?
Not sure but in principle I like to oppose these types
Especially as 3 horses here have to step up from a 2m race

BUTTERCUP is rejected from a 2m hurdle
She is not safe on my breeding statistics either

HOLLIES PEARL is rejected from a 2m hurdle
She is sired by Black Sam Bellamy
If you look at the sires hurdlers on G-Soft or worse
They are 0-16 running over 2m 6f or more

THE ORGANIST also comes from a 2m hurdle
I have to oppose her coming up a mile in trip

GRACEFUL LEGEND is too inexperienced

SAMEDI SOIR didn't appeal for similar reasons
She is sired by Black Sam Bellamy just like Hollies Pearl
If you look at the sires hurdlers on G-Soft or worse
They are 0-16 running over 2m 6f or more
My angles push towards a shortlist of 2 horses

Shortlist

BRIERY BELLE
YES I DID

I don't feel I can risk one winning unbacked
So I want to bet both horses

Selection

£7.50 Win YES I DID 9/4 Lost

£2.50 Win BRIERY BELLE 7/2 2nd

N e w b u r y 3.25

5/1 Art Mauresque, 5/1 Sametegal, 7/1 Ultragold
8/1 Bennys Mist, 8/1 Little Jon, 9/1 Generous Ransom
9/1 Off The Ground, 10/1 Pythagore, 12/1 Shutthefrontdoor
14/1 Laser Hawk, Vicomte Du Seuil 25/1 Aerlite Supreme
25/1 Un Beau Roman.

This is a Grade 3 Handicap Chase over 2m 4f
Newbury have 12 renewals of this race
There are 17 similar races in February and March

The last 8 winners were very similar
They were all aged 6 7 8
Horses aged 9 or more were 0-41 in the last 8 renewals
Recent winners of this had the following Chase runs
9 13 8 11 15 9 12 10
Recent winners of this had the following runs that season
4 5 3 3 6 2 3 5 7 5 4

You clearly want the following
A horse aged 6 7 8
Ideally with 8-15 Chase starts
And between 2 and 7 runs this season

If you take the 12 Newbury renewals
Horses aged 9 or more have a poor 1-69 record

SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR is a 9yo
I am against him with 1 run this year and topweight
SEVENTH SKY is also a 9 year old
He is too exposed with 24 Chase runs
PYTHAGORE is older than ideal aged 11
31 Chase starts is too many but these were abroad
PYTHAGORE has never raced in the UK before
Makes him more of a mystery and harder to judge
My reading of him was he was high enough in the handicap
BENNYS MIST is 10 years old
He fails the 1-69 age statistic in this race
He also has 26 Chase runs and that is a big problem
He is 0-9 in Listed or Graded Class
He has never won off his current rating
He has never won short of 2m 5f either
BENNYS MIST looks wrong to me

This statistic is also interesting
February and March
Handicap Chases in Listed or Graded Class
Any distance
Look at horses with 21 or More Chase runs
They have a miserable 2-158 record
Those without a run within 2 weeks were 0-126
You really need to avoid very exposed Chasers
In this sort of Class they rarely win
BENNYS MIST fails this 0-126 statistic
PYTHAGORE also fails it
SEVENTH SKY also fails it

VICOMTE DU SEUIL wouldn't be my first choice
Not without form in this country

OFF THE GROUND is 10 years old
We know horses aged 9 or more are 1-69
He has 16 Chase starts more than ideal
He combines this with 84 days off the track
I don't like the overall package he offers
He has never won off this mark or off his current rating
OFF THE GROUND is not my first choice
AERLITE SUPREME is a 9yo
We know horses his age and older are 1-69 in this race
He is not with a trainer I like or running well enough
UN BEAU ROMAN comes here after 2 miserable runs
I don't like his profile and he downgraded stables recently
He has never won going left handed either
LASER HAWK comes from a Novice Handicap Chase
There were 6 horses that did that in this race
They finished Fell 9th 8th 5th 4th PU
LASER HAWK doesn't appeal because of that
He is also 9m and fails the age statistics
And he has only has 3 Chase runs and completed just twice

If you look at the 12 past renewals
The 12 winners all had 5 or more chase starts
Those with under 5 Chase starts were 0-18
Several were fancied and LASER HAWK fails this

GENEROUS RANSOM has 84 days absence
Not keen on an absence that long
His 3 runs this season have been below his best
Not sure I can trust his trainer Nick Gifford
Nick Gifford runners since 2009
In Listed and Graded races
They have a 0-77 record in the last 7 years
Needs a career best and I think that's unlikely

Shortlist

We know all past winners had 5 + Chase runs
SAMETEGAL also fails this with 4 Chase starts
He only completed in 3 of these chases
The 2006 winner came from a Novice Chase like him
Be he had 5 Chase runs
I can forgive him that. He is just 1 run short over fences
He is with a Top Class stable
He has Grade 1 form over hurdles
His Chasing Racing Post Ratings are strong
He is built for chasing and could easily win this

ULTRAGOLD won a handicap last time
If you look at the 12 past renewals
Horses that won last time out were 0-25
Those winning handicap chases were 0-21
That is not a positive for ULTRAGOLD
He also has to step up in distance as well
ULTRAGOLD has 19 Chase starts
You can argue only 14 came in this country
It's not a great profile but there are positives
On Racing Post Ratings his last run was a lifetime best
Can't be too quick to turn him down
Not after a career best just 2 weeks ago

LITTLE JON comes here after 2 heavy defeats
Those runs were at Cheltenham which is interesting
This horse is best on a Flat track
7 of his Chase runs have been at Cheltenham
He has never looked happy at that track
His best ever run was at this track 3 starts ago
His Chase record away from Cheltenham is W W 4 W
He will love the return to this track
I just hope his last 2 runs at Cheltenham
Have not knocked his confidence as he made mistakes
Is it asking too much after two bad recent experiences ?

ART MAURESQUE is and has 8 Chase starts
The 2013 winner had the same profile
ART MAURESQUE was 6th in the Paddy Power
No mean feat at all for a 5 year old
I don't doubt he has the ability
There are some concerns though
The ground could be soften than ideal
All 7 wins have come in fields of 5 or Less
I suppose his Paddy Power 6th is reassuring

I am staying with Paul Nicholls

Selection

£6 Win SAMETEGAL 7/1 WON

£4 Win ART MAURESQUE 11/2 LOST

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Best Wishes
Guy Ward
www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk