Stayers Handicap Hurdle Racing Analysis

 

Highlighted Bet


Haydock 2.25

£2.00 Each Way WEST TO THE BRIDGE 20/1-18/1

£3.00 Each Way HIGHLAND HUNTER 10/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5

You will get better returns
If you place this on Betfair

Win bets in the win market
Then use the 5 place market
When it is more stable later

 

 

Target race all week

West To The Bridge is 1st choice
Because of the available prices
The staking does not reflect this

It's been done to ensure 1 place
Means we return almost all stakes

Neither horses is statistically safe
There may be an important factor
Nobody seems to have noticed it

There are no 5 year old runners
That would seem highly unusual
Should bring 7 year olds into play

 

 

Haydock 2.25

4/1 The Jam Man, 5/1 Imperial Alcazar
11/2 Relegate 7/1 Main Fact, 7/1 Third Wind
10/1 Collooney 12/1 Who Dares Wins, 14/1 Kalashnikov
16/1 Ask Dillon 16/1 Highland Hunter, 20/1 Dolphin Square
20/1 West To The Bridge 16/1 Wholestone 25/1 Clyne
25/1 Fauburg Rosetgri 33/1 Flashjack, 33/1 Justatenner,

Stayers Handicap Hurdle

Graded race over 3m

11 Past renewals
24 Similar races elsewhere

Horses aged 5-6
Won 10 of the 11 renewals

You want a young horse
Who is lightly raced to win

The significant factor this year

There are no 5 year olds !!

Horses aged 7 or more
Have a poor record in this race

But with no horses aged 5
We should include any 7 year old
Who comes here lightly raced
As they have no 5 year olds to beat

THE JAM MAN comes from a chase
ASK DILLON comes from a chase

Horses from a Chase
Have a 0-32 record in this race

24 Similar races elsewhere
Horses from a Chase are 0-68

Handicap Hurdles
Listed and Graded Class
Any distance
Any time of year
Horses from a chase
Running within 50 days
Have a 3-216 record
Those with 10 + runs 1-180
Those in Graded races 1-125
Those over 2m 6f + are 0-84

It is clearly not a good idea
To have a recent chase run
The following horses fail this

THE JAM MAN
ASK DILLON

THE JAM MAN is still interesting
Won the Troytown chase last time
And could be well handicapped
But he does fail another statistic

Handicap Hurdles
Since 2013
Run over 2m 2f and more
Listed and Graded Class
Run at any time of year
Horses aged under 8
With over 12 hurdle races
Have a 0-104 record in them
If you ignore Foreign races

THE JAM MAN has 23 hurdle runs
When you need to have under 13

MAIN FACT has 13 hurdle runs
I would not be too worried there
But not sure of the whole package

MAIN FACT is a 7 year old
I can forgive that age this year
And 13 hurdle runs is forgivable
But 27 career starts weakens his profile
He has had 14 races on the flat
No past winner had a flat career
Those that did were 0-21 in this race
This is first run in this class before

Looking at a few other angles

Best Profile

Horse aged 5 or 6
Under 12 career starts
Under 12 hurdle runs

Past winners
Had the following hurdle runs
7 5 5 7 11 5 5 6 7 4 5

Horses with over 12 hurdle runs
Have a 0-41 record in this race

Horses with over 12 career run
Have a 1-85 record in this race

The following horses
Do not meet the requirements
That have produced the winner

CLYNE is a 10yo
Not suitable with 27 hurdle runs
WHOLESTONE a 9yo
Happy to ignore with 23 hurdle runs
WHO DARES WINS is 8 years old
He has already had 46 career starts
Last jumped a hurdle 31 months ago
And his sires has never bred a winner
Over this far in this class before
JUSTATENNER an exposed 9yo
FAUBURG ROSETGRI is an 8yo
Not the safest profile with 16 runs
Faces a 348 day absence as well
FLASHJACK is 10 and exposed

KALASHNIKOV is unsafe with 16 runs
Given topweight first time out as well

IMPERIAL ALCAZAR is a 6yo
Fancied but last seen 297 days ago
Only has 4 hurdle runs behind him
I can find winners of Listed races
But none that won a Graded race
And none from a non graded novice
He might win but not going with him

RELEGATE is a 7yo mare
But she is crucially lightly raced
And I am supporting 7 year olds
And the type to land a big handicap
What concerns me the most
Having 1 run this year 13 days ago
And beaten 21 lengths in that race

Since Heathcote in 2007
Won the Tote Gold Trophy

Graded Handicap Chases
Run since 2008
Any distance
Any time of year

Horses running within 15 days
Beaten over 15 lengths last time
Have a 0-70 record in these races
RELEGATE fails this 0-70 statistic
Win lose or draw I have my answer
His last recent defeat is an issue

This is where it gets complicated

Past winners
Who had raced once this season
All came from 2m 5f or shorter

Winners with 1 run this year
Horses from 2m 6f or further
Have a 0-43 record in this race

The horses with 1 run this year
Coming from 2m 6f or more (0-43)

HIGHLAND HUNTER
THIRD WIND
DOLPHIN SQUARE

The horses with 1 run this year
Who are going up in distance
Have a far better record

COLLOONEY has this profile
WEST TO THE BRIDGE does to

Not sure if I can trust that angle

THIRD WIND fails this angle
Coming from a recent 3m race
There are definite positives here
As a lightly raced 6 year old
But can not match him to a winner
Can we trust his flat racing trainer
With a hurdler in Graded Class
Win lose of draw I prefer others

DOLPHIN SQUARE also fails this
Comes from the same Newbury race
He misses out on the shortlist too

Shortlist

COLLOONEY
HIGHLAND HUNTER
WEST TO THE BRIDGE

COLLOONEY a 6 year old
Horses his age
Having 1 run this year
Coming from 2m 5f or shorter
Won this race in 2012 2018 2019
He is not a perfect match though
They all raced within 4 weeks
COLLOONEY has 7 weeks off
They all came from 20f-21f
He only comes from a 19f race
But the profile is a positive

HIGHLAND HUNTER is a 7yo
Lightly raced I don't mind that
But he fails the following angle
Winners with 1 run this year
Horses from 2m 6f or further
Have a 0-43 record in the race
Despite that I am drawn to him
He was 8th in last years race
When facing 280 days absence
I would see him as a positive

WEST TO THE BRIDGE is a 7yo
With no 5 year olds I don't mind
He has now had 14 hurdle runs
Horses aged under 8
With over 12 hurdle races
Have a 0-104 record in them
I am forgiving that failure
He is only a couple of runs over
And we have no 5 year olds
But did a career best last time
Thats something I respect greatly
Looked like he had a ton in hand
He is the best outsider in this


Selection

£2.00 Each Way WEST TO THE BRIDGE

£3.00 Each Way HIGHLAND HUNTER