Beecher Chase

This is a copy of our Beecher Chase racing analysis for 2015.

It worked out spot on with our selection Highland Lodge winning the race.

Below you can learn from the angles examined and the thought train of analysis. Hopefully such extra inspiration will assist your own short listing efforts in future years of the Beecher Chase.

Picking a big priced winner 10 years in a row is too far fetched as an ambition. More achievable may be to aim to come out ahead by focusing on credible decent profiled to the specific race horses that appear to offer a bit of value in the markets.

Hopefully some of the thought train below will help inspire future genius from your own hand.

Aintree 1.40

7/1 Goonyella, 8/1 Algernon Pazham, 8/1 Saint Are
8/1 Thunder And Roses, 8/1 Unioniste, 10/1 Pineau De Re
10/1 Soll, 10/1 Vics Canvas, 12/1 Dolatulo, 12/1 No Planning,
16/1 Portrait King, 20/1 Ardkilly Witness
20/1 Buachaill Alainn, 25/1 Cowards Close
25/1 Financial Climate, 33/1 Highland Lodge
50/1 Dare To Endeavour.

The Becher Chase is a Handicap Chase over 3m 2f
Listed Class race over the Grand National fences

This race often supplies big priced winners
It could be the unique Aintree fences
But there are other reasons as well
You get some runners that are not doing their best
They are hear on a long road to the Grand National
And have no intention of peaking until next April
This leads to more hard to predict results

UNIONISTE is a 7 year old
Only 2 horses aged 7 have won in the last 23 years
Since 1997 horses aged 7 are just 1-30
Both were lightweights with 10st 6lbs or less
UNIONISTE has plenty to prove today
He is a 7yo seasonal debutant with topweight
Said to be aimed at the National
If he wins this rated 158 his National chance has gone
If he does win it will be for one reason
He is the Class horse rated 158 facing a 0-150

THUNDER AND ROSES is also rejected aged 7
Especially after being well beaten first time this year
Connections say "The Grand National is his main target "
He is more than capable of smacking a fence
He has completed only 3 times in his last 5 Chase runs

Horses with several recent races rarely win this
You don't want a journeyman horse
That has been on the go for months
DARE TO ENDEAVOUR has this problem

I looked at the winners that raced that season
Not many have won this well beaten recently

If you look at horses with recent runs in Handicap Chases
Those beaten over 10 lengths were just 1-82
Since 1998 that record was 0-79
Only 1 horse has won this race
Coming from being well beaten in a recent handicap
That was Samlee in 1997
He had 2 races that season as well
Those doing it with 1 race were 0-52

The following horses have very poor recent runs
Not good enough to see them winning
FINANCIAL CLIMATE - Not enough last time
Not strong on breeding stats either
COWARDS CLOSE didn't do enough last time
Neither did PORTRAIT KING who looks a spring horse
ARDKILLY WITNESS ran too badly last time

SOLL was beaten 52 lengths on his 1st run this year
That puts him in a bad place statistically
He's run at Aintree 3 times and was well beaten each time
He has a history of breaking blood vessels
All 5 of his wins came in lower grade
They came in the new year after Christmas
Invariably when fresh
That seems the best time to catch him
Talented on his day
But this is a Career high mark today
And with a dodgy profile not for me

VICS CANVAS is a 12 year old
Older horses do score well in this race
He was beaten 56 lengths just 2 weeks ago
Not prepared to overlook that
Not when he is a small horse with no Aintree experience

SAINT ARE was beaten 34 lengths last time
That was his run after finishing 2nd in the Grand National
If he repeats that run of course he could win
But I'd have thought he'd be laid out for the National
He's never won before the new year
Never won on ground this soft before either

BUACHAILL ALAINN doesn't appeal
The ground too soft and the company too classy

GOONYELLA fell at the first in last years race
I can't rule him out this year
He has plenty of weight though
And he comes from a hurdles race
Horses doing that had a 0-28 record in this race
What would worry me with him is his target races
He could be being laid out for the Grand National
Rated 150 he won't want a rise in the weights
This could very easily be a prep run on the way

DOLATULO is an 8yo seasonal debutant
Only 1 winner aged under 9 won first time out
That was a far lighter raced horse
I would oppose him first time out
He could easily pop in and win but not for me

Shortlist

PINEAU DE RE is 12 years old
That's no problem and a reasonable recent run
It was his best run since winning the 2014 National
That said it was only in a Veterans Chase
It was a small field and a much weaker race
Hard to know what sparkle there is left there
Can't rule him out but far from convinced

NO PLANNING has a couple of decent recent runs
Passes my breeding angles so I respect his chance
He will need a career best though
I love the fact he has recent runs
On Paper he is one of my biggest dangers
There is only one reason he does not make the staking
It worries me he is on the small side
That's not what I want at Aintree on Soft ground
Combined with never having raced here before
His size and lack of track form put me off him a bit

ALGERNON PAZHAM is a 6yo
These are hard to rate
Only 8 have tried since 1997
They finished 4 2 F 4 3 6 F 4
The placed horses were 14/1 25/1 17/2 20/1 33/1
The vast majority did come from better class races though
There is another problem with him as well
ALGERNON PAZHAM comes from a Hurdles race
Horses doing that had a 0-28 record in this race
I still see him as my main danger

HIGHLAND LODGE was 8th last year
He was beaten 16 lengths trained by Emma Lavelle

HIGHLAND LODGE has Just downgraded stables
That said I don't like his previous trainer much
I don't see this as a major downgrade
Emma Lavelle underachieved with this horse
He is massive horse and I think she undertrained him

James Moffatt bought him for £22,000 at auction
I am hoping his new trainer can revitalise him
The trainer states he has laid him out for this race
The owner wanted a runner in this race

James Moffatt said he was disappointed with him
When he first arrived from Emma Lavelle
Said the horse struggled to get up the gallop
I suspect the horse was not fit enough
He has said he has trained the horse hard
Reports he is thriving after a "massive amount of work"

James Moffatt
2015 record
Racing for the first time for this trainer
There were 4 horses that have moved to this yard

Mondlicht 3rd 5/1
Amuse Me WON 9/2
Frederic Chopin 3rd 10/1
Altruism WON 8/1

The trainer can win with cast offs
He was 2nd last time at Sedgefield
He ran in snatches that day
I am sure he was not fit enough
He was only beaten by a fit last time out winner

Hopefully HIGHLAND LODGE will come on for that
He has an extra prep run this year
He has 11lbs less weight than he did in this years race

He is not the same horse he was
But His last trainer is unconvincing
And he could easily be good enough to win off 125
When a massive horse with Aintree Experience
And a featherweight in a race many win from bottom weight

Selection

HIGHLAND LODGE 25/1-33/1

Each Way