November Handicap Statistics

I have researched some stats and trends for the November Handicap as part of my own preparation for this race. Racing media often tend to churn out the same old sort of basic racing trends. I guess they have to dumb down to suit average mug punters. I tend to research additional and unusual angles as I believe insight beyond the majority view is key to finding long term edge.

I hope you might find them useful if you plan to create your own shortlist for the race. Short listing is how I tend to use such stuff myself. Stage 1 stats as below then go through a second stage of matching runner profiles to the positive and negative stats. This provides a feel for how each horse measures up to the typical profile of a winner for that particular race.

I would not get blinded by a blinkered view point of only focusing on the best stat match horse alone. The name of the game over the long term is value and it is very possible that a perfect stat horse is short in price but one close to it is offered at much greater odds.

Such deliberations about value I carry out every day for full member clients here. If you were to consider any final official tip I give them as a ready to eat cake on a plate, then the rawer research stats as per below would be a key secret sauce ingredient I use to bake that cake.

I have many clients who enjoy the baking.

Many others just want to eat the final cake.

I plan to do more of this sort of free thing over the year to come.

The best way for you to get an alert about such stuff when it is ready is to register for the free newsletter here.

 


 

Ante Post

November Handicap Statistics

Doncaster Saturday


The November handicap is a 12f handicap
Since 1997 there have been 16 renewals of this race

Since 2005 there has been 24 Handicaps at Doncaster
Thats 24 Handicaps that had 16 or more runners
The winners came from the following Stalls
9 15 12 18 16 21 8 9 20 16 9 20 19 9 15 10 14 9 17 22 10 13 18 10
Horses drawn 1-2-3-4-5-6-7 had a 0-194 record
I suspect a sharp early bend cuts off the low draws

Fitness is obviously crucial in this race
Past winners had the following absences
4 58 14 51 22 35 57 35 41 36 26 14 15 7 34 15 41 24 days
In 23 renewals the longest absent winner was 58 days

Almost all winners had at least 4 runs that season
Since 1991 every winner except 2013 had 4 + runs
Horses with 1-2-3 runs this season have struggled

This is the official rating of the last 15 winners
90 96 93 93 97 98 95 97 99 93 97 89 87 75 80 82 105
Only 1 winner was rated 100 or more
No horse rated 100+ won in the previous 15 renewals
All 42 that tried to do this failed

Horses aged 3 have a 11-137 record since 1990
The 11 winners had the following official ratings
97 82 84 97 87 93 73 90 91 91 99
No 3yo winner had ever ran in Group races before
3 year olds unraced as 2yo's score well
All 11 winners aged 3 ran within 36 days
The 11 winners aged 3 have these career runs
9 12 4 13 4 15 6 7 8 8 6
Most recent 3yo winners were up in class
They all came from Class 3 or lower
Look at 3 year olds from Class 2 or better
Since 1994 these horses were 0-44
The last 3yo to win from a Class 2 race was 1994
These days when they win they do so from lower grade
There were 3 past winners aged 3 going up in trip
These three winners had 13 15 8 runs

Horses aged 4 won 9 races since 1988
They had the following official ratings
93 97 98 99 89 75 96 94 70
They all had at least 9 career starts
Recent 4yo winners had 24 39 21 26 12 15 14 career starts
Be wary of 4yo's who won last time out
Horses aged 4 doing this were 0-41 since 1988
No filly aged 4 has won this since before 1988
The 4yo winners all had at least 6 runs this season
None had ran in Group races before
None came from Class 4 or lower (0-55)

Horses aged 5 have a 5-104 record
They had official ratings of 90 80 95 93 90
They had 19 32 39 12 39 career starts
4 of them came from 13f or further last time out

No past winners came from Group races
Its very rare the winner ever raced in Group Class before

Horses aged 6 or more have a weak record
In this race they have a 2-101 record
Since 1980 only 3 winners of this race were aged 6 or more

Horses dropping from 2m or more are 0-28

Look at some Racing Post Ratings
Recent winners had achieved these ratings before
100 103 99 100 105 107 101 105 106 101 107

 

 

 

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