Mathematician 238

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Best Bet Of The Day

Beverley 2.00 ZAGREUS 9/2 ( + Saver on ROYAL GAME 8/1)

I like 3 horses in this race. ZARGEUS , ROYAL GAME and WHIRLING. I cant sensibly advise all 3 so I am making ZARGEUS the selection and advising a saver on ROYAL GAME . These 2 horses stand out in this race and both are capable of Hacking up , but both have 1 Main Flaw. The Flaw with
ZAGREUS is stamina. He is unproven at this trip. If he stays he will win. Judging stamina is very hard. The impression on video is that he may struggle to stay But sometimes the eyes decieve and.I think there are genuine reasons for confidence that he will stay on breeding and on Class in such a weak race. I think its 60-40 that he will stay and I am giving him the benefit of the doubt. The Flaw with ROYAL GAME is that he is being ridden by a 16 year old boy having only his 2nd ride in public. Talented and talked up as the boy is, it has to be a concern but ROYAL GAME's profile is so strong that as his price I have to bet him as well. If I was having £100 on the race I would be having £75 on Zargeus , £20 on Royal Game and £5 on Whirling at 16/1 .

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Todays Racing

Race Of The Day

Beverley 2.00 - National Festival Circus Selling Handicap (Class 5) (3yo,0-55) 1m4f (1m4f16y)

7/2 French Gold, 5/1 Cream Of Esteem, Filey Buoy, 7/1 Premier Times, Royal Game, Zagreus, 10/1 Procrastinate,
14/1 Bust, 20/1 Whirling, 33/1 Cliffie, Samalan

Much as Goodwood has the best Stats today experience tells me to steer cleer of the Billious place especially on softer ground and I am staying with this selling handicap for 3 year old Sellers for the Best Bet. There has been 12 past renewals but the stats are not that great so I siding more on Form and Video impression. The Scrubbers can be ruled out. CLIFFE and SAMALAN are 70/1 chances and safely ruled out. BUST 20/1 has done very litle of interest and
I dont think he is fit enough or experienecd enough to win this race. He needs a lot more time.

The First big negative has to be PREMIER TIMES 9/1 Who for me has no chance of staying this 12 furlong trip. I opposed PREMIER TIMES Last time at Pontefract (12f) because of his Sires (Timeless Times) dismal record over middle distances. If you look at the record of "Timeless Times" offspring over distances of Over 10 furlongs, they have a 1 from 95 record. That sole winner came on sand in 1998 and this is 12f on a stiff track. PREMIER TIMES Wont stay today in my opinion and he wont Place either.

FRENCH GOLD 7/2 had 2 runs for Paul Cole before moving to N Wilson. Her first form was on her 5th start at Beveley but starting 66/1 for a 0-55 handicap shows just how poor she was rated at the time. She then ran 2nd in a Warwick Seller. Poor form but she will at least be ok on any ground and she does stay. What would concern me is that others may have more improvement stepping up to this trip.

CREAM OF ESTEEM 5/1 is being slowly brought along by Nigel Tinkler. Got handicapped at a rating of 55. Since then has ran mid division in several weak 0-55 Handicaps. The fact he is "Tinkler" trained suggests a gamble will be landed at some stage. He looks like he has the ability to win a race like this but you would want the cash to be down on him. He nearly won a Ripon Seller 3 weeks ago but that was a poor race. I didnt like him on video last time. He was being slapped and niggled far too early for my liking. Needs to improve a lot for the extra 2 furlongs

FILEY BUOY 5/1 - What puts me off him was his purchase price of £500 . He is very much a fast ground bred horse. Unplaced in 8 starts he has just ran 3rd in a weak Ripon Selling race over an extended 9f. That day he was 3rd and CREAM OF ESTEEM was 4th but Video analysis strongly suggested that Cream Of Esteem (who has ran since) was the better horse and would beat FILEY BUOY if they met again. He doesnt look to have much to reccomend him , he isnt a certain stayer either on Pedigree and heavy rain would be a huge problem.

ROYAL GAME 7/1 - Moved from David Loder to M Bell after just 1 race. He has done little in his first 5 races. Michael Bell feels he has been very dissapointing and he is due to be sold at the Sales if he isnt sold at the Auction today. Bell also feels he needs a long trip but he failed to stay 2 miles at Beverley last time. This may well be a very significant piece of form. What I love about ROYAL GAMES chance is that he came from a 2 Mile race at Beverley last week. There is a strong record of horses coming from that particular race. All in All 6 horses ran in that 2 mile race (Ran on 17th July) and they
provided 2 winners of this race , a second and a 3rd. NORTHERN SPIRIT last years winner came from the same 2 mile race at Beverley the weak before. He was beaten miles at Beverley and came out and won this race. PHASE EIGHT GIRL in 1999 also ran in the same Beverley race as ROYAL GAME and he was beaten 7 lengths before coming out and winning this race. The runner up in 1999 (Nom Francais ) also came from the Beverley 2 mile race. The 3rd in 2002 (Candy Anchor) was beaten 21 lengths in the 2 mile Beverley race and then came out to be 3rd in this race. The race has a strong pedigree of providing the winner of this race. When I watched the 16f Beverley race, at the 12f point ROYAL GAME was cantering on the Bridle and I came away thinking that he was a certainty in this race today, especially as he is trained by the best trainer in the race. The Big dilemma though is that he has the best
trainer and possibly the worst jockey in Luke Morris. Thats a big problem for me. This Kid has had just 1 ride in public before and thats a serious flaw especially when you consider that in past renewals of this race jockeys that claimed an allowance (Apprentices) had a 0-28 record and this is a stiff tactical track and a young rider hasnt got the experience this track demands. If he had a pro on board I would consider ROYAL GAME a maximum bet. All I can
tell you about Morris is that he is 16 years old, rides out regularly for Bell and when he graduated from his apprentice licence course the director stated ``if I had to stick my neck out and forecast a future top jockey from the group I'd say it could be Luke Morris.''. Whether we can trust a 16 year old or not no matter how full of potential or not is another matter and the biggest single issue in this race. He has to be at least a Saver Bet.

ZAGREUS 7/1 stands out on the AOR's on his June 1st run over 7.5f , but he was 50/1 that day and may have been flattered. He is probably best judged on his last race at Ripon (extended 9f) when 5th in the race where FILEY BUOY's was 3rd and CREAM OF ESTEEM was 4th . That day ZAGREUS made the runner and didnt seem to get home that day. This is 2f further. There must be a doubt about ZAGREUS staying this trip. On the negative side His
Sire (Fasliyev) only has a 2-67 record with his offspring at distances of 10f and above. On the Positive side The Dam was unraced but was stouter bred and is a Half sister to a 12f winner and ZAGREUS is a half-brother to a winner up to 12f in Norway and a 10f winner in Hong Kong; . If he stays then he is a massive runner. Judging stamina is notorioulsy difficult. Forced to decide I would say he is doubtful on Video evidence but that "Impression" was gained from the fact he leaded and faded. Perhaps he went off too fast. Perhaps he needs this extra yardage. It is after all a very weak race. Initialy I thought that he
wouldnt get home, but now I think in such a weak race he may well be worth a try. I think he will make the running though and he should be able to be laid back in running at a shorter price should you want to do that with him.

PROCRASTINATE 14/1 has a lot against him not least the fact he is still a maiden after 22 races and has only been second just once. An 80 day absence wont help matters much and the distance is a big doubt. He is sprint Bred and has looked like he was staying over less than 10f last time so this 12f will be a pretty tough ordeal. He would also want softer ground. He is an unlikely winner.

WHIRLING 33/1 looks a long way from a likely winner on form but there has been some money for her and as usual in this game little is as it seems at times. The one strong angle I can produce to reccomend WHIRLING aside from the Market Move is that she comes from a "key" 16f race at Beverley 8 days ago that ROYAL GAME also comes from (See Royal Games profile) . That gives her a smashing profile in this race and backed from 25/1 to 16/1 she is my
clear "3rd best pick" in the race. I cant promote her higher in the pecking order though . She was well beaten at Beverley , never looked like winning and Video analysis suggests she shouldnt beat Royal Game. My Personal staking plan to £100 in the race is £75 on Zargeus , £20 on Royal Game and £5 on Whirling at 16/1 . Its up to you whether you want to strech your stakes on the race to accomodate this filly.

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