Mathematician 249

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Best Bet Of The Day

Carlisle 8.20 - ZANJEER

Zanjeer is generally a 4/1 chance (Ukbetting , Bet365 , Totalbet) and he should be around that price this evening. If the race pans out as I envisage I feel he is the best equipped to handle the course and distance. I wouldnt say he was a Maximum by any means. I am staking £100 on him . Not going mad because of the issues of tactics which can often not work out as planned.

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Todays Racing

To be Honest I am desperate for a Day off. Didnt have one last week and I am knackered. That said Tuesday looks dreadful so I thought I would Bat through today and return to action on Wednesday.

Race Of The Day

Carlisle 8.20 - 5/2 Bollin Edward, 7/2 Mister Sweets, Zanjeer, 5/1 Arnprior, 13/2 Burnley Al, 16/1 Desert Arc, 33/1 Fitzwarren,

ZANJEER is my best bet of the day. I think the key issues for this race are tactics, the trip, the ground and how the race will be run, and I feel that ZANJEER will
attempt to make all under his perfect conditions and he should catch out several of these runners. He is owned by a Local Man who should be there tonight to watch him win. I Think we have 3 horses in this race with the Class to win this. They are Bollin Edward, Mister Sweets and Zanjeer. I dont think the rest of them have the class. Its easy to rule out 60/1 chance Fitzwarren and I also dont fancy DESERT ARC. He just isnt in any kind of form, and I think he is ungenuine and wouldnt have a prayer of matching any of the best form of the big 3 runners in this race. He will get outclassed if any of the front 3 run to form.

I want to oppose BURNLEY AL . He is a Maiden. There have been Maidens win this race but they score poorly. When you consider that Mister Sweets has Won a 0-75 .Zanjeer has Won a 0-72 and Bollin Edward has Won a 0-70 his form pales into insignificance. I Am not sure that this is his trip. He has been running consistently in average grade over longer distances. This is a significant drop back in trip. Its 5 seconds faster than his last race and almost over the distances he was racing over as a juvenile. His Sire stayed 10f comfortably and never won at this trip and the was plenty of stamina on the Dams side of the family. I just think that he will have to come from behind and I dont see him as having the class to achieve that against 3 horses that have all achieved far more than he has done. Its true he is lightly raced but he doesnt have a lot of scope and whilst he will win races in his grade at around this trip, I dont see any progression and I dont see it will be in a race at this trip against 3 horses that have achieved a lot more than him.

I also want to oppose ARNPRIOR. I have no problem in this race with 3 year old fillies but I dont think this is her track. She also ran here last time getting detached and being scrubbed along before staying on. She has had 3 chances to shine here and not one of her runs would win this race. She was well beaten over Course and Distance back in June and that was against her own age group and her own sex. She was then beaten here in July again against her own age group when looking uncomfortable on the track drifting left . She was a horse that was handicapped on Merit in maidens, suggesting that she didnt have anything much in front of the handicapper. Her 61 rating on her handicap debut clearly wasnt generous as she has been beaten in all 5 Handicaps she raced in. She did win in a Non Handicap at Hamilton (weaker race than this) suggesting Johnston didnt feel she was significantly better than her handicap mark but she hasnt gone on from there and I didnt like her on video last time. She will be staying on late but she , like Burnley Al will have to mow down 3 horses that have achieved light years more than she has and thats on a track she has never threatened to win on from 3 attempts.

BOLLIN EDWARD 3/1 Has a sound chance on Paper. There isnt much you can pull out of his profile and criticise him for but he is a inconsistent and quirky horse that struggles to win and with only 2 wins from 40 starts he is usually best opposed. Winning a maiden as a 2 year old clearly didnt help him and he must have been badly handicapper. He has dropped 14lbs since then in the weights but this isnt a handicap, and I didnt like him much on video in either of his last 2 runs. He has got the raw ability to win one of these races but I think he is the type that has to have eveything fall right for him. He needs a specific type of pace, the race to be run right, the gaps to open and I dont think he is a progressive type after 40 races and not the type tahts likely to overthrow horses ahead of him in a sub 7f race. His trainer is having winners but only because he is running so many and overall his stable can hardly be described as flying with his last 41 runners beaten. I think his career record suggests he has every chance of being beaten and to win things must fall just right for him.

MISTER SWEETS does have the class to win this. Statistically he is weak as he has only ran twice this year and comes from a 6f race. I personally wouldnt hold
the fact he has ran twice this year against him. After all he ran twice last year and then achieved a career best on his 3rd start at Newmarket winning a 0-70 race. He is another horse that comes from a stable thats hardly flying. He lost his form last year and its a matter of time before he gets fit and in form and he will then win handicaps from his current mark. I feel his last run was just not enough to suggest it will be this race. I dont think the fact he has ran twice since last November can be in his favour, I wouldnt feel it was a strong negative in his case but it certainly isnt a Positive. He is probably the main danger to ZANJEER.

ZANJEER is running under perfect conditions and I think the best horse at this distance. I think he is ready to win now. 2 Starts ago he bled from the nose when beaten at Catterick but that looked a one off and I feel there is enough in his price to overlook that run. I loved his run last time out at Beverley. I think he met a fast improving horse (Baylaw Star) but I liked the way he puilled clear of the 3rd horse and he raced prominently last time always up with the pace. I think this slight drop in trip is just what he wants. This time last year when he was improving fast he showed he excels over todays C+D will when 3rd in a competetive handicap only going down in a triple photo. I dont think he has been staying well enough over a Mile. His Sire I have always thought was a strong 7f Sire, and I dont think ZANJEER is a Miler. He has won at a Mile before but that was a dreadful maiden handicap and he later won from a 16lbs higher mark so he must have been thrown in that day. This I feel is far more his natural trip and now he has returned to form (as has his stable) I think he is ready for his 4th career win from only his 19th start. I think he will lead this field and I think he will hold on. He is one of the 3 horses that achieved far more than he needs to have done to win this race yet he is the one horse that looks best suited to the trip and I think a sensible tactical ride from his jockey should see the race pan out in his favour on his favoured fast ground.

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