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It has been a quietish week on the Full Service
in terms of Official Bets.
Just the one Official Bet in fact between Monday and Today.
A lot of Guy's advance research work had been dedicated to
the major meeting Ayr. But as you know that has been abandoned
day after day due to the terrible weather.
But one selective bet, one nice winner and
a good profit beats
many bets and a net loss.
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Off the official account however Guy was active in his more
casual
Future Betting Angles Section.
Following on from a successful Summer Trilogy he gave members
his
Autumn Trilogy. I have copied this below for
you so you can read it too.
In short this Trilogy is an ante post treble with quite a long
maturity duration.
He would keep such stuff off the official account on several
grounds.
- For starters he veers away from his niche expert speciality
of horse racing.
- Secondly attraction to such stuff or not can be very much
down to one's personal taste.
Placed further down the message away from the Official Bet sections
clients can more easily take it or leave it as they personally
see fit.
In my own mind it raises a few thoughts about how
one may judge value in a bet.
Sure there is the classic idea of value edge
in that you only bet heads if the odds on offer
are higher than evens etc.
But as you can read below Guy himself
gets a different kind of value from the odd
self indulgent bet such as his Autumn Trilogy below.
That would be more so under the heading of
Entertainment value.
I know I myself probably take betting too seriously for a lot
of you.
For many of you no doubt it is a hobby and a challenge of wits.
Getting hrs of amusement and losing £50 a month is no
worse than spending £50 on renting films a month.
The interesting thing about betting of course is
that if done well it is a hobby that can make a bit of cash
and unlike film rental or a night in the pub
it is not guaranteed to be a net cost.
Being a bit too serious about it all myself I often forget
about the more recreational side of punting.
I'd still suggest of course if you are a hobbyist losing a bit
regularly that you may be more highly amused if
instead you could net win a small bit regularly.
The time frame for getting any hobbyists enjoyment
about a race this afternoon is quite short and fast.
With this ante post one however there may be months
of interest and personal amusement
if Leg 1 wins on Sept 30th.
So it's quite an alternate take on value
with value being measured in duration
of personal amusement time that a
stake buys you.
So sort of the total opposite of brainlessly feeding
£ after £ in quick succession into one of those
silly
frequent spin bookie shop FOBT terminals.
It all works best of course if one has a good eye
for the classic definition of value when selecting
one's Trilogy.
I guess it is worth highlighting that Guy does
back these things with his own personal cash.
I can assure you that many so called tipsters
and racing journalists make their living telling
others to do stuff they don't have the conviction
to do themselves.
You may even have read lately in the Guardian
about the far end of the extreme of a free
twitter tipster duping followers with fabricated
records.
If the business model is one of the advisor earning more in
bookmaker
backhanders with his payments directly related to how much
his referred punters lose at said bookmaker, well you don't
need to be
a rocket scientist to see that the so called tipster's interest
and YOUR interest are a long way off perfect alignment.
Our model is more straightforward.
We make a charge to clients
and for us to be successful we
need happy long term clients.
Last time I did a check we earned circa 98% of our
annual income from clients fees and about 2%
from bookie adverts.
Happy repeat clients butter our bread not the bookies.
We want our clients to be winning and not losing
and it is very much in our interests to make that happen.
A few years ago when the Guardian sent an investigative
reporter in here to check us out instead of a big scam expose
they actually ended up printing in their newspaper the likes
of
"The Mathematician delivered a master class in tactical,
value betting throughout the year and a welter of
profitable supplementary advice in addition
to the recommendations I recorded.”
You get what you pay for I guess.
Anyhow enough of the drivel from me for one week.
I will pass you over to Guy now with a copy of his
Autumn Trilogy from his full member messages earlier this week.
It is personal taste stuff I guess.
Some of you may not like the idea of tying up
stake capital for a long time duration.
Others of you may appreciate the
length of amusement time potential value in it.
Win or lose Guy has his own cash on it.
He wants it to win.
There are sadly a few too many out there funded 100%
by bookmakers who want you to lose.
We have many full member clients who have been with us for
over ten years.
Most others don't ..even when they are free.
Go compute.
Best Wishes
Mick
Site Admin
www.mathematician-betting.co.uk
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FUTURE BETTING ANGLES - TUESDAY
The Autumn Trilogy
Offer me a choice
A Luxury 5 Star Holiday
Or an Ante Post Bet of my choosing
That would win the equivalent amount
I will take the Ante Post bet every time
I remember my Summer Trilogy
Churchill - Rafa Nadal - Order of St George
I looked forward to that bet every day
More than any holiday I've ever booked
The pure pleasure if the anticipation
Of a well thought out Ante Post Bet
Beats any human pleasure I've known
I have been searching for another one
The Autumn Trilogy
A particular kind of ante post multiple
That has roughly got 2-3-4 selections
Giving me something to look forward to
One of the Legs in this bet
Is going to be Australia to win the ashes
I have been convinced by a member
Confirmed by other members as well
That this bet around 4/7 is going to win
I can't use the bet I suggested yesterday
Cristiano Ronaldo in the Champions League
The market is not mature enough to get on
I've been thinking about having a double
Premiership - Manchester City Evens
Ashes Series - Australia 4/7
Win Double
This double pays over 2/1
Manchester City have been imperious
My own view is they are the best team
Thinking about the following bet too
Staked to £10 just to make it clearer
£9 Win Double - Man City 1/1 Australia 4/7
£1 Win Double - Chelsea 11/2 Australia 4/7
If we get past the Ashes bet
Which I just think is long odds to happen
Then we have a good bet running
We then get 15/8 about Manchester City
With Money back if Chelsea win
That could look a brilliant bet in time
It means opposing Manchester United
Much as I support them- on what I see
I just feel Manchester City are a better side
And there may be a chance down the line
To add a saver on Man Utd if they drift out
Talking of Manchester City
September 23rd they play Crystal Palace
1.16 on Betfair to win that home game
They are 1/7 to win with the bookmakers
That 1.16 seems a very generous price
Looking at the Romelu Lukaku bet at 9/2
What we know now that we didn't then
The Positives are there
He is scoring most games
His goal tally is racking up well
He has adjusted to his new club well
LUKAKU is 3/1 generally
The market is still 1/4 the Odds 1,2,3,4
The negatives are
There are simply better players
He may still win despite that
But he is not the best player out there
Anyone who has not bet Lukaku
I would not put you off doing so now
Even at 3/1 because it is 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4
Some may be put off him after Sunday
As he did not take the United penalty
If he's been replaced as penalty taker
That would be a serious concern
But he may have given the penalty away
As a gesture to the player than earnt it
Either way I still see him as a free bet
I think what we know now
That we did not know then
LUKAKU is less likely to win it
But looks even more safer to place
That still makes him an outstanding bet
Because I think it is unthinkable
Baring a horrible injury
That 4 players can finish ahead of him
Back to the search for an ante post bet
Australia are the only definite leg
I am still chewing Manchester City over
And the double really is not winning much
I really need a third selection
To give me a bet I can drool over
Australia - Man City - with 1 more leg
I have not yet decided on that final leg
I have a horse in mind running soon
That would give us a 7/1 winning treble
I'd hope to confirm this final leg soon
FUTURE BETTING ANGLES - WEDNESDAY
I have had a win treble (Paddy Power)
Ashes - Australia 8/13
Premiership - Man City Evens
Priz Du Cadran - Vazirabad 7/4
Win Treble
£1 Stake Returns £8.88
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Quick Comment For Free Newsletter Readers
Odds Above were correct on Wednesday.
As I type on Friday however PaddyPower are still top price
but they have shortened Man City a fraction thus reducing the
odds on the treble to circa 7.5/1
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I discussed the first 2 legs yesterday
More than confident in the Cricket
Happy with the Football leg
Because hedging should be available
VAZIRABAD runs in 10 days time
This is the Saturday before the Arc
I thought it may be a good idea
To get on him now and secure the price
One of the main reasons for this
Lack of creditable opposition
PRIX DU CADRAN
Saturday 30th September 2017
Vazirabad (7/4) Big Orange (4) Thomas Hobson (8)
Bateel (10) Sheikhzayedroad (10) Holdthasigreen (12)
Max Dynamite (12) St Michel (12)Torcedor (12)
Travelling Man (16) Montaly (20) Nearly Caught (20)
Mille Et Mille (25) Ming Dynasty (33) Trip To Rhodos (33)
High Jinx (40) Oriental Fox (40) Pearl Dragon (50)
VAZIRABAD is the Aga Khan's horse
He was 2nd in last years race
He was beaten in a photo
He is a high class stayer
Very hard not to see him going close
BIG ORANGE won the Ascot Gold Cup
He will have a chance if he runs
The ground may well be against him
VAZIRABAD has home advantage
He will have a 20 day absence
BIG ORANGE will have a 60 day absence
Thats longer than all recent winners
THOMAS HOBSON is a very unlikely runner
He may wlel go to the Melbourne Cup
MAX DYNAMITE looks like he is going too
BATEEL is only a mare
Who has never raced over 2m yet
The Prix Du Cadran is 2m 4f
She is not a certain runner either
Her main aim is Ascot on 21 October
She could take this race on route
Latest news suggested she'd wait
Miss this race and wait for Ascot
SHEIKHZAYEDROAD is an 8yo
Go back 48 years to 1969
Only 1 past winner was older than 7
His career best Racing Post Rating is 117
Thats his best number in 42 races
VAZIRABAD beat that (119) last time out
ST MICHEL is not a certain runner
He'll be underraced this season if he does
TRAVELLING MAN is an unlikely stayer
Not many can be fancied for this
Getting in now on VAZIRABAD
Using him for Leg 1 of my treble
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