Mathematician-Betting.co.uk
Becher Chase Disaster
Well not quite a disaster.
More so muggins here embarrassing himself again in last week's
free newsletter spelling Becher Chaseas Beecher Chase.
Thanks to the eagle eyes who pulled me up on that one.
At school I was always hot at maths and physics.
A bit of a problem solver numbers man.
English however was always more of a struggle for me.
"And it clearly still is today" I hear long suffering smarty pants
free news readers quip back at me :)
People are different I guess.
Some may churn out excellent prose but will struggle
to work out how much change to get from a quid
if they buy an 81 pence mars bar.
Some will be great negotiators.
Others will be skilled and eager fighters.
Difference is a key component
in the design that has led to the
success of the human race
Some humans will have ability to stay laser vision on track.
Othersidiots find themselves veering off on
a waffly tangent and then suddenly
remember thatthey were supposed to be
talking about horse racing.
The Becher chase was less of disaster in the racing respect.
The Age stats I sent you last week would have assisted
in narrowing the field down to the correct pool from which
winner Walk In The Mill was drawn.
Any in for last Saturday would have had Guy refine
things down tighter than thatthrough his application
of additional research and filters.
I have copied that below for you in case you have interest
in the logic path he used to have Walk in The Mill
strike him as a value selection for that race.
His end decisions on a race will usuallybe rooted ina mix of items.
There will usually be a strong hard grafted foundation of numerical stats research.
After that a touch of gut experience, human judgement call or voodoo magic.
It is a bit like any top striker perhaps.
Without putting in the hard graft legwork to repeatedly
put themselves ina favourableposition to shoot they
would not score as many goals.
Could it be I wonder that some just prefer to go straight to the
voodoo magic stage?
Perhaps they have a little Fred Done doll into which they stick pins
before they have a bet. Perhaps they even have a special larger and
rustier than normal special pin to be applied to the dolls behind
to encourage it to pay out faster when the bookie loses.
Dragons Den here I come with my new line of bookmaker themed voodoo dolls.
Suchpure voodoomethods may perhaps work.
My own personal gut call however is that voodoo magic
is best applied after an initial phase of hard graft work.
One of the reasons longer term clients here trust Guy so much
is that day in day out they see his commitment to the graft of advance research.
It may be for a major glory race or for a minor maiden at a smaller track.
Caspian Caviar Gold Cup Stats
This relates to the Cheltenham 1.55 On Saturday
Guy gave full members a bit of advance stat work mid week.
I have pulled out an extract from his more expansive work for you.
Just a quick look at the issues of weight carried and horse age.
Whilst I understand the attraction of many to simplistic methods
with clear black and white answers the real world is usually more shades of grey.
Guy will use such stuff to improve his sense of vision about a race.
That sense of vision leads to short listing to a smaller pool
of more credible contenders. One needs to be aware of the danger
of ruling out a credible contender due to minor infringement
of one particular stat outlook etc. Too black and white an approach can be wrong
especially if market odds over compensate for a minor stat blot.
100% perfection is also unachievable.
More so the vision may be one of putting in the research leg work
to create small pools of more optimal contenders for strike rate and value.
Fish in those calculated pools for 100 races and you will do better than
Mr Muggins who casts his line in any random spot.
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The highest weights struggled
The last winner with 11st 9lbs + was in 1996
The last with 11st 11lbs + was Pendil in 1973
No recent winner had 11st 10lbs or more

Horses with 11st 9lbs or more
Have a 0-33 record in this since 1997

Horses aged 5 have a 0-15 record in recent years
The last winner aged 5 was back in 1966
Horses aged 6-7-8 are best
Aside from two winners aged 4
They won every renewal since 1993
Horses aged 9 or more
Have a 0-67 record since 1997
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Why Not Try It Yourself ?
Go to the sporting life or racing post and find the race card for that race above.
From the stats above select the grounds upon which you want to shortlist by.
Both horse age and weight are easily seen on a standard race card.
You should be left with a smaller number than the original 15 runners.
Some progress has been made.
Your shortlist is still long but it is shorter than it began with.
Additional researched stats can then be examined with a view to
shortening it further.
For example add in
The last 15 winners
All came from 2m 3f or more last time
Those coming from 2m 2f or shorter
Have a 0-35 record since 1993

This one is a bit more work to check.
You can not just read what you want off a standard race card.
You need to go into the individual horse records and look it up.
How many punts are based on race card data alone?
I do not know but my gut says there is value in going beyond
minimal general public easy to access information.
With abit of luck that may take out another horse or two.
Your short list is getting shorter yet.
Additional stat filters if you have them can be used to refine further.
Nb thefaster way may be to apply checks to
an ever shortening shortlist.
But probably the more proper way would be to apply
all checks to all horses and then judge the overall picture
at the end. Imagine a very good contender who passes all checks
except the very first one you applied which he minorly failed.
Your real world may be a blend of perfect theory and pragmatism.
eg say it was a 20 runner race. The more hasslesome checks
may be time consuming to apply to all horses.
So perhaps you decide on a few killer stats you would refuse to punt on if not matched.
Apply those first to shorten the list.
Then shift to a more correct "examine all horses for all stats" approach after that.
Anyhow if you go through all the above you will start
to appreciate more perhaps what Guy does here each day.
He first puts a lot of research into defining valid stats for each particular race.
Then there is the checking of runners against these stats.
I guess the final stage is his own personal less explainable voodoo
of interpretation and experienced eye for value.
But arguably that final phase is not so important as all the work
taken to put him in the position to make such shots.
Last Saturday's Becher Chase Analysis
Aintree 1.30

4/1 Blaklion, 7/1 Ballyoptic, 8/1 Present Man, 9/1 Crosshue Boy,
10/1 Vieux Lion Rouge, 10/1 Don Poli, Ultragold, 11/1 Missed Approach,
14/1 Highland Lodge, 16/1 Noble Endeavor, 16/1 Regal Flow,
16/1 Walk In The Mill, 20/1 Call It Magic, 25/1 Federici,
25/1 Fine Theatre, 33/1 Dare To Endeavour, Just A Par,
50/1 Mustmeetalady.

Becher Chase
3m 2f Graded Handicap
Grand National fences

Number of Chase runs

36 Ultragold
30 Federici
22 Just A Par
22 Highland Lodge
22 Regal Flow
20 Walk In The Mill
19 Dare To Endeavour
17 Blaklion
14 Vieux Lion Rouge
13 Present Man
12 Don Poli
12 Call It Magic
12 Crosshue Boy
12 Mustmeetalady
11 Missed Approach
11 Fine Theatre
10 Noble Endeavor
6 Ballyoptic

Graded Handicap Chases
Any distance
Any time of year
With 9 + runners
Horses absent over 337 days
Have a 0-89 record since 2006

The following horses fail this

DON POLI absent 664 days
NOBLE ENDEAVOUR absent 600 days
JUST A PAR absent 588 days

DON POLI has topweight
He is a 9 year old absent 664 days
Likely to need the run today
Has other objectives down the line

NOBLE ENDEAVOUR has 600 days off
Said to be heaving for the National
This looks a prep run on the way
JUST A PAR is an exposed 11 year old
Downgraded stables since last seen
Quite happy to avoid him off 588 days

HIGHLAND LODGE is 12 years old
Won this in 2015 with 2 recent runs
Was 2nd in 2016 on seasonal debut
Was 3rd in 2017 on seasonal debut

He is now older and more exposed
With no recent run he is expendable
No past winner won with his absence

Horses that raced this season
Coming from a Handicap Chase
Beaten over 10 lengths last time out
Have a 0-76 record since 1998

REGAL FLOW fails this 0-76 record
Has no track form against him too

DARE TO ENDEAVOUR fails this too
His 3 runs this year heavy defeats
Been a year since he ran in a chase

CALL IT MAGIC has 2 runs this year
Neither good enough to make appeal

ULTRAGOLD has run this season
His last run was a 46 length defeat
I can ignore that as it was over hurdles
Not keen that he has 36 Chase runs
He is by far the most exposed chaser
Recent winners Had these Chase runs
13 7 16 19 18 36 13 25 17 20 4
ULTRAGOLD has 36 previous chase runs
Thats more than any past winner
He has never raced beyond 3 miles
He is being laid out for the Grand National
If you look at his sire Kapgarde
His runners in Listed/Graded races
Have not yet won beyond 3m (0-12)

FREDERICI has 30 previous Chase runs
Worryingly exposed for a 9 year old
Career best Racing Post Rating of 137
That is quite a modest rating after 30 runs
Trying to win this off a mark of 134
Will require one of his better performances
I just don't see how he will produce one
He was beaten 17 lengths in 4th last season
MUSTMEETALADY looks out of his depth

BALLYOPTIC has 6 chase runs
He is the least experienced chaser
Every other horse had at least 4 more
The 2007 winner had 4 chase starts
So inexperienced horses have won it
But that winner did have a recent run
I would want more given his age/weight
He is being asked a big question here
He is an 8 year old seasonal debutant
He carries the 3rd highest weight here
He has to defy a tough rating of 155
No horse has done that since 1998

MISSED APPROACH is an 8yo
First run of the year first at Aintree
He is one of the least exposed types
Respected but have some doubts
Said to have an small hold up recently
Said to be aimed at the Grand National
Have my doubts he will be 100% ready
Dislike 8yo debutants anyway

FINE THEATRE prepped over hurdles
Overall chase form seems to lack class
Doubtful he is good enough

BLACKLION won this race last year
He had a prep race beforehand though
This year he is a seasonal debutant
Ran off 153 last year now races off 158
Has 4lbs more weight to carry this year
To be fair he was impressive last year
This will be harder without a prep race
He has had very little racing since then

VIEUX LION ROUGE won this in 2016
No reason he can't win 2 years older
But he has plenty of weight to carry
His trainer gets less and less reliable

PRESENT MAN won last time out
Won the Badger Ales at Wincanton
That must put him on the positives
Given it was a career best rating
He has gone up 7lbs though to 151
No Aintree form on his side either
Some say he prefers it right handed
Not flawless but does have positives

WALK IN THE MILL has a recent run
He was beaten 22 lengths in that race
Horses that raced this season
Coming from a Handicap Chase
Beaten over 10 lengths last time out
Have a 0-76 record in this race since 1998
WALK IN THE MILL fails this 0-76 angle
I think we need to forgive him that stat
He carried a big weight at Cheltenham
He did that after a long absence as well
He was running on very well into 3rd
His runs this time last season
Were smart career best numbers
Suggesting he is well treated off 137
Has never won in a field this large
Positives far outweigh negatives
But he has to prove he will stay

REGAL FLOW is interesting
Horses that raced this season
Coming from a Handicap Chase
Beaten over 10 lengths last time out
Have a 0-76 record since 1998
REGAL FLOW fails this 0-76 record
Has no track form against him too
But he is a guaranteed stayer
Has strong heavy ground form
Has 2 prep runs this year as well
That must help on heavy ground

CROSSHUE BOY has a prep run
That was over hurdles at Galway
He doesn't have an easy task off 149
But his previous 2 chase runs last year
Were both career best numbers
He could easily be improving now
I mentioned recently on the message board
I liked him and expected market support
On the day given he is now just 10/1
I see him as a saver bet rather than win

We only need 1 of our 2 main bets
To get placed in the 1-2-3-4
And we can not lose in the race

Selection

2.25 Each Way WALK IN THE MILL 16/1

2.25 Each Way REGAL FLOW 16/1

1.00 Win Bet CROSSHUE BOY 10/1

You are welcome in for this Saturday's racing analysis if you fancy it.
It is 3 one off at the usual spot


Best Wishes
Mick
Site Admin

 

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