Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

Each Way Scuppering Bookie Rules

Last Saturday Guy advised a slightly unusual official tip.

It was each way in a five runner race.
The unusual proviso was that all five horses had to run.
So it was not a bet that could be placed early.
One would have needed to wait to closer to the off
to help ensure there would indeed be five actual runners.

Then sure enough there was a later non runner.
That made it a four runner race and in that scenario
there is no each way and any early placed bets
would be converted by the bookie to win only.

So officially a "No official bet" day due to conditions
for the tip not being met due to the non runner.
Guy was correct to be wary of a nun runner "breaking"
what he felt was a decent bet each way

But it got me thinking ( or remembering ) as to how
unfair that system is for each way punters.

Every day punters get gubbed when non runners
transform the places paid out on their each way bets.

Bet each way in an eight runner race expecting three places
and the law of sod dictates a non runner will change it to just two places.
Your horse will of course finish third.

You feel gubbed and a bit cheated to be stuck with a bet
you may not have made had you known it would be two places only.

That is the way it has always been.
But I am thinking - Should it always be that way in future?

I had a simple "fair to each way punters" idea.

What if when placing your bet a bookie were to offer you
Places Offered Protection [ POP for short ]

Tick the POP box and your each way bet will be voided
if the places paid out on drops from 4 to 3 or from 3 to 2
or even from 1 to 0.

or if you prefer you can not tick the optional POP box and
if so your each way bet would be treated in the traditional
and historic way.

Such a thing would give power to the punter to choose.
And I think letting a punter choose when placing his bet
to have an each way bet voided if the number of places
that get paid out on changes... is fair and reasonable.

Three places or just two places is a very significant difference etc.

If such a thing were to come about in future I feel
it would help create a slightly fairer world for racing punters.


Pessimist or Optimist ?

It would be a bit simplistic to say so but arguably
readers of this newsletter may fall into two camps.

Pessimists may say "That's the way it has always
been and the bookies will never change"

Optimists on the other hand may say
"The world is ever evolving and good ideas can come to be
if people are proactive in pushing for them.
One can indeed help influence positive change in the future world."

I myself would have one pragmatic foot in the pessimist camp
but the other firmly in the optimist camp.

So this week I thought I would kick a ball with my optimistic foot
and pass on my Place Odds Protection idea to a bookmaker.

To them of course I had to explain it slightly differently.
I raised the idea of punter fairness [ which probably had minimal attraction to them if we are honest ]
But I also raised the idea of punters taking no action to bet each way due to the perceived risk
of a non runner scuppering the place terms.
If they could ensure against that risk, remove doubts and reduce perceived risk
their turnover should increase. [ they perhaps liked that extra turnover idea a bit more ]

I also suggested that if they were to introduce it they would have a
big advantage over competitors who did not, they would get great reviews about from racing sites
and would thus gain extra market share as punters left others to choose them.
[ Again ideas like taking market share from competitors the bookies do like ]



I was actually a bit surprised this week to get a semi favourable reply from Bet365

My contact there said

"I like the idea definitely, and I agree that people become far more likely to
place a bet when risk is reduced or eliminated.
Some kind of ‘Each Way Insurance’ promotion could definitely appeal
to customers in a similar vein to BOG.
I’ll pass this on to the product managers and see if it can be slotted into our plans."

So that is semi encouraging.
No cast in stone definate yes
but it is now an idea in their ideas bank
for higher authority there to hopefully approve.
( My contact there whilst liking the idea personally
is not the head boss. He can only pass it upwards )

Compared to some other slow moving dinosaur bookies
out there whose vision never appears to extend beyond
the next quarterly shareholders report, 365 I feel are a bit
more forward thinking. BOG Plus is a further recent
example of that.

What Can You Do To Speed Up Positive Change?

Instead of sitting mute like a depressed victim
get up of your bum and do something small
to help.

Why not contact bet365 support and let them
know about an annoyance they as a company
can help solve.

Just say the likes of [ copy and paste even ]

===============================
Dear Bet365

I find it very annoying when non runners ruin a racing each way
bet by reducing the number of places paid out.
Fear of that happening often results in me not making a bet with you.
Can you please improve your site to offer me a choice
to have an each way bet voided if non runners alter the
number of places paid out.
If you had that option I would be much more prone
to use bet365 more frequently than I do your competitors.
I would also be more prone to recommend you to others.
Please pass this feedback to someone who can authorise such
a positive future change.

==============================

365 are already warmly receptive to the general idea.
It certainly has not been knocked back as a "never will do impossible".
I think they are bright enough to see it is based in fairness
and that it could bring them significant marketing edge and additional turnover
from happier racing punters.

Get up of your bums and send them the above and
that mass customer feedback you were part of
could swing the deal.

Ponder what happens should 365 lead the way with this change.
I feel many others may choose to follow suit if punters
leave them due to the lack of it.
Picture board room fury at a competitor bookie
after quarterly results indicate decimation of their share of the
racing each way market. The finger gets pinned on each way
punters all leaving to take advantage of POP from 365.
If you were CEO of that bookie what might you do?
Perhaps roll out POP yourself and make a big song and dance
about you now having it too?

There is scope for a domino style effect.
You can do your bit to help push over the first one.
Many small fingers can create a massive force.

Help me to help you and all other racing punters.

As for a separate issue of bookmaker restrictions.
I think I have that one solved for racing punters.
Well I have what I feel is a workable plan that just needs to be adopted
by the British Racing Authority, a body who I feel generate
slightly more optimistic vibes under current chairman Nick Rust
that may be historically shown by them.

More on that at a future date perhaps.





Saturday Racing Advice

As well as trying to change the world for the better
I also of course have to remind you to come spend £3
on Guy's Saturday racing advice.

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http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/daypass
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If you are new to the site and have no clue yet as to his
in-depth style see a copy of his Thursday message below.

No official tips yesterday [ he is quite picky with those but see longer term results here ]
But a decent day yesterday with his lower down the message advance research work.
Knowledge, hard work and effort is the only miracle system here.

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Mathematician 2446
Thursday October 13th

0 Bet today
0 Negative
8 Races discussed

Some fascinating issues today
I am highlighting 5 races from 8 previews
Plenty of short priced horses to oppose
I want to oppose 4 horses at 4/6 6/4 11/10 4/5

There are some difficulties with these races
Price changes, Non runners, inclement weather
But it should be an interesting message today

The Account Bet I wanted to go with
Does not offer a generous enough each way price
Nothing is suitable enough for a staked bet
But 5 selections at the top of the message
Worth a read with a few dodgy favourites

Today's Bet

No Staked Bet


T o d a y s M e s s a g e

There are a few short priced horses today
with very dodgy profiles that I'm opposing.
Hard to be clear just how negative we can
be about them with small fields and a lack
of clear alternatives but I will avoid them.


Punchestown 2.45

OLD CASTLETOWN 11/4 - LOST

I hoped for 7/2 or 4/1 Each Way
With 4 places I might well have staked that
But we are being offered only 11/4
Because of that I won't go each way
And won't stake him on the account
But I thought he had to go very close
And this was the bet I wanted to stake

Carlisle 2.40

£4 Each Way DERINTOHER YANK 11/2 - WON
£2 Saver Bet MIN ALEMARAT 11/2

The 4/6 favourite is worth opposing
But I have just 2 neutral profiles to choose from
The staking is not easy
I found it hard to split this pair
I could be right and still not win anything
A Non runner would be a problem as well
If I can beat the favourite I will be happy
But landing on the winner is down to luck

Punchestown 3.20

£4 Each Way MASTER APPEAL 8/1 - WON
£1 Win Bet CROSSHUE BOY 8/1
£1 Win Bet BABY JAKE 8/1

The favourite has a breeding question mark
Because of that I am trying to get him beaten
But an open handicap with several with chances
This would fall short of account strength


Carlisle 3.50

£8 Win Bet RYEDALE RACER 15/8 - WON

£2 Saver WAZOWSKI 8/1

The short priced favourite has a bad profile
RYEDALE RACER has a good profile
There is also room for a saver bet as well
The problem here is we have 2 seasonal debutants
We do not know how fit either horse will be
More than enough to highlight this bet
But I want my account bets to have proven fitness
Sometimes in October that guarantee doesn't exist
And that's why I am not staking this bet


Chelmsford 5.50

£8.50 Win Bet CLAIRE´S SECRET 15/8 - WON

£1.50 Win Bet WINNING BID 7/1

Another odds on favourite with a bad profile
I am taking this horse on with the main dangers
Tiny field gives the favourite more hope
So despite just following the angles here
We can not be shocked if the favourite does win

W e d n e s d a y's S u m m a r y

It was a low key message yesterday without any
horses staked or highlighted and a score draw is
a fair result. The first preview went south with a
badly drifting favourite who was beaten. We had
a short priced chase winner afterwards and that
cancelled out the opening loser. The 3rd preview
was a speculative loser at a big price leaving us
with just an each way placed bet on Spin Top on
a day where I think a score draw was very fair.


P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S

B r i g h t o n 2.00

15/8 Akkadian Empire, 5/2 Glendun
9/2 Mamdood, 13/2 Maori Bob, 9/1 Diamond Bear
11/1 Esloobaha, 25/1 Chakra, 25/1 Shambra
33/1 Kingston Tasmania.

8f Maiden
I wanted experience
I would rule out the unraced horses
I don't want MAORI BOB first time out

My problem with GLENDUN
Apart from a trainer I don't rely on
Is whether he truly stays this far
That would put me off an each way bet

MAMDOOD obviously needs respect
No hurry to bet him with just 1 previous run
Not when his main rivals both have 4 runs
On a track where experience often helps

AKKADIAN EMPIRE

On Good or softer ground I would select him
On faster ground I would avoid him
His sire is 0-31 with runners on faster than good
It is Good ground and good to firm in places
May just get away with it
Trading around 3.6 I would consider him each way
Not a confident selection without seeing the ground
But I marginally prefer AKKADIAN EMPIRE

B r i g h t o n 2.30

11/8 Titan Goddess, 9/2 World Record, 5/1 Admirable Art
9/1 Signal Hill, 9/1 Touch Of Color, 11/1 Ettie Hart
16/1 Deluxe, 20/1 Big Red, 20/1 Lutine Charlie
33/1 Dark Phantom, 33/1 Ron´s Ballad.

This is a Mile Handicap

Statistically there are lots of trap doors

For example TITAN GODDESS is a filly up from 7f
And all 32 of those were beaten in similar races
It would be easy to see her as a negative
But if you look at fillies from 7f races
Winning last time with recent runs
You don't find any that have tried
So I should see her more as a neutral

ADMIRABLE ART also offers a dilemma
If I look at horses aged 6-7 in similar races
Who have absences between 30 and 40 days
I find a strangely impressive 5-14 record
ADMIRABLE ART has a very decent profile
But all 5 of those winners won on the All Weather
This is Grass so his profile is not as good as it sounds

That's why I would keep stakes low
I can't trust WORLD RECORD
Not from his trainer and with an absence
I would probably have to split stake this race
ADMIRABLE ART each way is an option
But I would rather have been drawn higher
With a better draw that would have been my bet
Maybe the safest way is this
TITAN GODDESS to win
ADMIRABLE ART to Place
But I don't feel safe in this race


C a r l i s l e 2.40

1/2 Mister Kit, 5/1 Derintoher Yank, 5/1 Min Alemarat
12/1 Golden Town, 16/1 Bako De La Saulaie
33/1 My Little Hope, 100/1 Mcginty´s Dream
100/1 Monbeg Cave.

Novice Hurdle over 2m 1f

I have a dilemma here
MISTER KIT is trading around 4/6
My angles make him a negative
But they don't give me a positive alternative

MISTER KIT is an 8 year old
He is a seasonal debutant
He has raced just twice both times over hurdles

Novice Hurdles in October
Any and every distance
Horses aged 8 or more
First Time out
Under 12 career starts
There is a poor 1-92 record
The only winner won at 3 miles
Those that raced over 2m 7f or less were 0-87
Those that raced since 2008 had a 0-48 record
Those starting under 4/1 had a 0-12 record
MISTER KIT fails the above angles
He also fails this wider ranging statistic

September October November
Novice Hurdles over 2m 7f or shorter
Horses aged 8 or more
First Time out
Under 12 career starts
There was a miserable 1-163 record
Purely on his profile
MISTER KIT should be avoided

The problem is what with
GOLDEN TOWN has a very hard to read profile

DERINTOHER YANK comes out as a Neutral
8 horses ran with his profile
All 8 were beaten but none of them were fancied
MIN ALEMARAT also has a neutral profile
I should really be taking on this favourite
But Nothing has a safe profile against him
So I can't suggest strong stakes here

Selection

£4 Each Way DERINTOHER YANK 11/2

£2 Saver Bet MIN ALEMARAT 11/2

P u n c h e s t o w n 2.45

5/1 Old Castletown, 7/1 Buonarotti Boy, 7/1 Omega Springs
8/1 Black Label, 8/1 The Jazz Singer, 10/1 Cillian´s Well
12/1 Kiera Royale, 12/1 Magna Cartor, 12/1 Winsor Vixen
14/1 King Of Aran, 14/1 Magnetic Force, 16/1 Dixie Highway
16/1 Mighty Fine, 16/1 Rock On Bach, 20/1 Do Na Paisti
20/1 Fighting Days, 33/1 I C Gold, 33/1 Wrekin Rock.

2m Handicap Hurdle

I like OLD CASTLETOWN's chance here
He had been chasing for a while
He returned to hurdles 5 days ago

Some say he is a better Chaser
But he has more chances to show that
And he is well handicapped over hurdles

OLD CASTLETOWN was 2nd 5 days ago
Beaten in a photo in a better race than this
Racing Post Rating of 115
Suggests he can win off a rating of just 101

When it comes to big field handicap hurdles
At decent tracks with big fields and 4 places
I am a sucker for horses with good recent runs
This statistic shows it is rarely a bad idea

October
Punchestown Handicap Hurdles
Any Distance
Horses aged 6-7-8
Running within a week
Beaten under 10 lengths last time
Finishing 1-2-3-4-5-6 last time out

Only7 horses had this profile
These finished W W 10 W W W 4
The horse that finished 4th
Ran only yesterday (Shabra's Bertolini)
He Placed as did 6 of the 7 that tried
And 4 of these 7 horses won
OLD CASTLETOWN is the 8th to try
With a very good recent run
I like him each way with 4 places

Hard to sort out what dangers there are
There will be a few but a nightmare to sort out
THE JAZZ SINGER has a weak profile
Happy to take him on down so radically in distance
There will be plenty of other dangers though

Selection

OLD CASTLETOWN 3/1

Win Bet

or

Each Way if you prefer

P u n c h e s t o w n 3.20

15/8 St Stephens Green, 5/1 Crosshue Boy, 7/1 Baby Jake
8/1 Do Try Dolly, 8/1 Master Appeal, 10/1 Cassells Rock
10/1 Thinkitplanitdoit, 12/1 Kentucky Star, 14/1 Lofgren
20/1 Apache Jack.

2m 4f Handicap Hurdle
We have an improving favourite
ST STEPHENS GREEN should go very well
The Racing Post make a fair case for him
The problem with him is his sire
Diamond Green has bred a 2m 3f hurdle winner
Those that raced over further were 0-32
ST STEPHENS GREEN fails that breeding stat
And it raises a question about his stamina
Especially when he also has 55 days absence

That stat puts me off him
I don't see him as a negative though
He may have too much momentum and class

APACHE JACK - Not convinced he is fit
LOFGREN - Looked hard to like
KENTUCKY STAR - Not my first choice
I don't feel I can safely select the favourite
I think I would have to go each way against him


£4 Each Way MASTER APPEAL 8/1

£1 Win Bet CROSSHUE BOY 8/1

£1 Win Bet BABY JAKE 8/1

Ca r l i s l e 3.50

11/8 Ballyarthur, 2/1 Ryedale Racer
6/1 Wazowski, 8/1 Fit For Fifty, 8/1 Late Date.

This is a 2m 4f Novice Hurdle

BALLYARTHUR's profile troubles me
He is a 6 year old
He has not raced in 12 months
He has raced just once in his life over hurdles
If you look at all Novice Hurdles
September October November
Run over any distance
Horses aged 6 or more
1 previous race over hurdles
Absent more than 6 weeks
You find a 0-82 record

Because of that I can not trust him
BALLYARTHUR is therefore opposed

FIT FOR FIFTY has a horrible profile
All Novice Hurdles September to November
Horses beaten over 23 lengths in a Bumper
Running in the last 6 weeks
Have a 0-298 record which rules him out

WAZOWSKI unseated rider at the 1st last time
Hard to read not least as he is blind in one eye
Hard to know if that is a problem going right handed
I think he would be a reasonably cheap saver

RYEDALE RACER has the best profile by miles

Male horses aged 5
Seasonal debutants
Between 4 and 7 career starts
Between 4 and 6 hurdle starts
No previous Flat form
Horses with this profile are 6-16
RYEDALE RACER has this profile

RYEDALE RACER should clearly be the bet
The problem is he is a seasonal debutant
His trainer hasn't had one of these win yet this year
His seasonal debutants this year are 0-8
Losing prices of 11/1 2/1 11/4 9/2 3/1 9/4 3/1 7/2
Lots of fancied horses beaten there
So I do have some reservations
About how confident I can bet with him
Much as my angles suggest he should win

Selection

£8 Win Bet RYEDALE RACER 13/8

£2 Saver WAZOWSKI 8/1

P u n c h e s t o w n 4.30

11/8 Sadler´s Risk, 13/8 Lord Scoundrel
9/2 Smashing, 10/1 Clarcam, 33/1 Federici
50/1 Dromnea.

3m 1f Graded Chase
Over the years the distance of this has changed
So not a safe race to look at statistically
We have what looks like 2 no hopers
I am also against CLARCAM at this trip
I have never been convinced he stays this far
And that may be the reason for a heavy last run
SMASHING also has to prove his stamina
He has never run anywhere near this far
His trainers form would worry me as well
Been a while since he had a winner
He has said his horses are needing runs this year
Not enough positives to take a risk on him
I would shortlist 2 horses
And include both in the staking

Selection

£7 Win Bet SADLER´S RISK 9/4

£3 Win Bet LORD SCOUNDREL 2/1

C h e l m s f o r d 5.50

7/4 Masonic, 9/4 Claire´s Secret
5/2 Winning Bid 120/1 Wind In The Trees.

This is a 2yo maiden over a mile

This is an Auction Maiden
Weights are determined by sales prices
So not a traditional maiden race

MASONIC has the best Numbers
11/10 favourite but I should oppose him
MASONIC comes from a 6f race

I looked at all 2yo maidens in October over 8f
Horses from 6f or shorter
Running in the previous 26 days

There is a 4-127 record with these horses

Those with 3 or more runs were 0-39
Those that raced in Auction maidens were 0-59
MASONIC with 4 runs fails both those angles
I am opposing him
But in a small field with no good profiles
I can not see him as a negative
But I'd play it this way

Selection

£8.50 Win Bet CLAIRE´S SECRET 15/8

£1.50 Win Bet WINNING BID 7/1

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What To Do Now?

I suggest

#1 - Book in for Guy's Saturday message ( costs £3 )
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/daypass

#2 - Help make the world a better place by lodging your
improve the world vote for Place Offer Protection ( POP )
over at the Bet365 support desk.


Best Wishes
Mick
Site Admin

 

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