Mathematician-Betting.co.uk
The Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster on Saturday is usually
both a welcome and unwelcome sight.
 
It is welcome as the Lincoln meeting traditionally
marks the start of the flat season.
 
Yes the summer is coming folks :)
 
From a racing analysts point of view however
a 22 runner cavalry charge packed full of horses
with no current turf season form is not the easiest
of problems to sort out.
 
Reading between the lines of Guy's recent comments
to full members the current quick summary may be
that whilst the Lincoln is a race he will cover in Saturday's message
he will likely pick a better battle from the cards when it comes
to higher stakes action.
 
He has been dropping some Lincoln research into full
member messages over the last week or so however.
 

I have pulled some pieces together for you below tidying
them up and adding in an extra more obvious stat or two.

Those of you who prefer to pick your own
may appreciate a few extra angles that could
possibly assist in narrowing down the field
for yourselves.

 
Of course if you prefer to have someone else
do the grunt work for you, the £3 Saturday Day Pass
is available here for you.
 
Saturdays message will have more detail about the Lincoln Handicap
plus many other Saturday races will be examined as well.
 
 
 
[ You need to book in before 10 am Saturday Morning ]
 
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Lincoln Handicap Stats
 
Class 2 Handicap over a Mile
open to horses 4 years or older.
 
 
Horse Age
 
Last 3 winners were 4 year olds
4yo's have won  9 of the last 14
 
Your 4yo should be Male
Ideally have between 4 and 20 starts
Should be a seasonal debutant
But not absent over 7 months
Not coming from a 3yo handicap
 
Stay with horses aged 4-5-6
Horses aged 7 or more since 1999
Have an overall 0-67 record
 
Horse Experience
 
Horses with under 4 career runs
Have a 0-13 record in this race
 
 
Weight
 
Go back to the 2000 renewal
Horses with 9st 5lbs or more
Have a poor 1-57 record
 
Apprentice Jockeys had a 1-82 record
5lbs and 7lbs claimers are 0-43
 
 
Previous Race Class
 
18 of the last 19 winners
Came from Class 2-3 races
None came from Class 4-5-6
 
Horses from Listed/Group races
Have a poor overall 1-72 record
In the last 14 years they were 0-51
 
 
Last Race Distance
 
Horses that came from 9f or more
Won 7 of the previous 13 renewals
Of which 3 came via a Cambridgeshire
 
 
Rating
 
12 renewals since 2005
11 of the 12 winners rated between 95-105
The last 5 winners rated 99 102 100 100 100
 
 
Days Since Last Run
 
No horse has won absent 239 + days
None won absent over 211 days since 2002
 
 
 
Fate Of Favourites
 
Despite the large field size it has
not been a terrible race for favourites
with 6 winning over the last 20 renewals.
A 13.3pt profit at SP
 
The last favourite winning however
was 3/1 Penitent back in 2010.
 
 
Some Big Prices
 
As one would expect in a large field handicap
big priced winners are not unheard of.
A few notable highlights would be.
 
2002 Zucchero  33/1
2004 Babodana  20/1
2006 Blythe Knight  22/1
2012 Brae Hill  25/1
2013 Levitate  20/1
2014 Ocean Tempest  20/1
2017 Bravery  20/1
 
 
Trainers
 
Over the last 20 years several trainers have
won the race more than once.
 
William Haggas - 3 Wins - 0 runners this year
John Quinn - 2 Wins - Safe Voyage this year
Mark Tompkins - 2 Wins  - 0 runners this year
Paul Cole - 2 Wins - 0 runners this year
Richard Fahey - 2 Wins - Third Time Lucky & Great Prospector this year
 
 
The Draw
 
The Draw is often guesswork
The last 3 winners drawn 10 15 20 22
Go back to 2001
Doncaster races over a Mile
Any kind of race any time of year
Horses Aged 5 or more
Drawn 17 or higher have a 0-139 record
 
 
A Draw Statistic of Interest
 
Go back to 2001
8f Doncaster races
Any kind of race
Any time of year
Horses Aged 5 or more
Drawn 17 or higher
Have a 0-139 record
 
What is interesting about this
The 2nd and 3rd favourites fail it
 
SALTONSTALL is a 5yo drawn 18
 
KYNREN is a 5yo drawn 22
 
Maybe they will overcome this stat
But none have in the last 18 seasons
 
 
 
Note For Each Way Backers
 
Keep an eye out for extended place terms.
4 places would be standard but certain
bookies may be offering up to 6 places.
 
 
 
 
Thoughts On AUXERRE
 
 
AUXERRE is the favourite
He has been consistently backed
 
He is a 4yo seasonal debutant
We have seen 9 of these win recently
They had 7 11 4 14 6 5 15 12 5 runs
 
AUXERRE has just 4 runs
The 2005 winner Stream Of Gold
Did have the same profile as him
But that was quite a long time ago
 
Inexperienced but a big stable
Has been nibbled at for weeks
Obviously been laid out for the race
 
Now we almost get to the race
Some people are opposing him
On the grounds he is too short
 
AUXERRE is drifting a bit
You can understand that really
It is a huge field and he is quite short
 
But the people turning against him
might have had some second thoughts
If they knew about that last draw statistic
 
Because if that works out
and Kynren and Saltonstall are beaten
then Auxerre opposers
do not look to have much on their side
 
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Best of luck
Mick
Site Admin

 

 

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