A bit of a mixed bag for you this week.

 

 

 

 

 

 

On Nov 16th I sent you out a copy of some of the advance research work

Guy had been providing for Full Members in preparation for The Hennessy or

The Ladbrokes Trophy as it is known these days.

Between then and now Guy gave full members a bit more advance research work

and then of course it all culminated on the day of the race itself.

 

A decent profit was made on the race.

I have copied his full reasoning from last Saturday below at the base of this email.

 

"Lesson" perhaps sounds a bit pompous and arrogant.

I don't claim to know everything about horse racing.

Nor does Guy.

Bookmaker odds compilers don't.

Even trainers don't.

There have even been a few historic instances of

Guy's research being passed on to a trainer

via owners within our membership that

have swayed a trainer to place a horse

in a certain race type to good effect.

 

Anyhow my grandfather was a teacher

and perhaps somewhere within my genetic code

lies a desire to help others improve themselves.

 

So my stab at a few possible points of learning

from last week's Hennessy may be

 

Lesson A - Most punters net lose over a year.

I do not know the exact percentages

but I have seen bandied about a stat that suggests

5% net winners and 95% net losers.

 

Now ponder the style of approaches

adopted by various groups of punters.

Punter types are wide ranging in reality but for

simplicity I have created three simple groups.

 

Group 1 - Little thought or effort to the selection process.

A one minute glance at the card on a betting shop wall is

all it takes.

 

Group 2 - There is a miracle quick no brainer selection system out there.

Systems are good because I do not like to work or think.

Despite every one I have tried over the last decade crashing and

burning a hole in my wallet I believe the holy grail of systems is out there.

 

Group 3 - I believe in very hard graft and detailed research.

Every race needs assessed in detail with thought to the

horses likelihood of winning and to the odds presented

on the day in the betting market.

 

 

Your homework is to take each of those three groups of punter style

and make your best guess as to whether place them into the group

of 95% of losers or the 5% of winners.

 

Take the lesson forwards with you and perhaps you may be better positioned

to understand what is required of yourself if intent on ploughing your own furrow

or you may be better positioned to assess the sensible viability or not

of the thousands of racing products out there current and future.

If you can better sort them into piles of

 

- Selling Dreams

and

- Grafting Hard on my behalf

 

you will be much better positioned to make improved future decisions.

 

 

 

Lesson B - In a years time you may have interest in the next running of the Hennessy.

Start your preparations now by filing away somewhere Guy's analysis below.

Pull it out again next year and you will have a source of very good inspiration

about how to go about finding potential value in next year's race.

 

 

Lesson C - Beware to a small degree Lesson B

 

Note Guy's Hennessy comment at email bottom below

 

"This is not your standard renewal"

 

10 year trends for major races are not an uncommon thing on the net.

A blind idiotic computer can easily churn out stats on a ten year sample

for a big race.

 

One can easily find the horse that is a perfect match to all positive trends

is pretty short in price. The one that is 80% good to trends could

be the best value on the day.

 

But you also have to go back to the core premiss of

treating each race as a unique and individual event.

 

Note that race organisers can do such stuff as

alter slightly the entry conditions for a race.

That happened recently for the Grand National for example.

 

Then there is the more common scenario of

just the nature of the horses that happen to

end up declared to run. Trainers and connections have

their whims about what races they target each year.

At the higher echelons of racing many owners do not even

care about the prize money for running well in a particular big race.

A 3rd place can blot the  look of a previous 111 record and

that can have impact on future stud value.

The right or wrong of some of the best horses not running

is perhaps a rant best reserved for another day perhaps.

 

Anyhow for whatever reason the typical profile of runners

this year in any race is not necessarily the same

as in past years.

 

There can be edge opportunity if you

can spot viable differences in a  renewal

and anticipate the majority of the market

backing blind to such changes.

 

The detailed thinker can in effect end up

taking cash from the blind trends systemite via the

in between medium of bookmaker or exchange.

 

 

 

 

One of Guy's target races for Saturday is the Beecher chase.

 

It is a race he has significant recent success with.

See his 33/1 Highland Lodge analysis from 2015 here

 

 

 

Earlier in the week he gave full members some advance stats work on the race.

From that more expansive item I have pulled out his Beecher Chase age stats for you.

 

=======================

 

=======================

 

 

Research such as the above is just an arsenal tool that assists

puzzle solving. Sometimes it can be more useful as a tool

to assist with crossing out the less likely.

Not backing losers tends not to get as much column inches in tipster press

as the more popular concept of backing winners but it can be just as important

at the end of the year when you sum up your net profit.

 

Then with the real world pragmatism of only having X hrs to analyse a race

it can be beneficial to have advanced thinking time concentrated on a smaller group

of more likely candidates.

 

I myself have not looked at the Beecher Chase at all.

With a busy life why would I bother when I know I can get Guy's final assessment of it on Saturday.

I'd trust it to be a significant step up on quality than I could do myself in the time.

If however I was forced to direct my magic pin blind to everything else bar

the above, I would probably point it somewhere of the zone of the 9 year olds

and the 8 year olds bearing in mind the extra weight comment about 8 year olds.

 

Guy may disagree come Saturday however with that.

Other factors not least odds available come into play for value calls.

 

 

You are welcome in yourself on Saturday if you like.

It is £3 for the Saturday analysis if you want it.

No need to worry about repeat billing.

Come and go as you please each Saturday.

 

If you want the hype of a

"Nailed on banker double digit odds inside plot horse for the Beecher Chase !"

..well sadly you are on the wrong newsletter.

There is probably a big 0898 telephone bill with your name on it however.

 

 

Here is the link to book in for this Saturday

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Testimonials on websites are often are not worth the webpage paper they are written on.

 

The worst are pure fabrication from non existent customers.

Certainly more than once we have been approached here

with suggestions that I can earn 50% commission on sales

if we recommend to you lot some new high hype betting site.

 

Often provided is copy and paste marketing material.

Amazingly before the site is even live there are a whole load of

glowing testimonials from happy customers'

I am supposed to use these glowing testimonials

to help convince you lot to go sign up.

 

Weirdly all the happy customers who could not wait to gush out testimonials

for this amazing life transforming product ( that is not even on sale yet )

appear to have the writing skills of trained marketing copywriters.

Often between them the will cover various positive upsides

of the wonder product in very eloquent style.

 

Often I suspect it is the same core operators

who will run a series of different sites under fictitious guises.

This week it may be how Bob the bin man found a scrawled note in

bookmakers bin that led him to untold riches.

Next month it will be something else on a new site.

 

More fishy than a sushi bar.

 

We do our best to protect you here from such lies with our

No "bullshit shall pass through"  filtering.

You should know by now not to expect it from here.

 

But the best protection is for you is to be aware it is out there.

Have your own radar tuned in for such stuff.

 

 

 

THEN

 

Not quite so fraudulent may be the short numbers game style of testimonial.

 

Let us imagine for example an imaginary site that targets even money favourites.

 

Let us also assume that the long term net profit record would be negative.

 

Now also ponder Bob and Jim joining up one week apart.

 

Bob joins first and gets one even money bet each day

hitting 6 losers and 1 winner that week.

 

Jim then joins the next week.

By pure luck he joins just on the perfect day to

hit a short term positive bit of statistical scatter.

Perhaps his first week  is a very nice 5 winners from 6.

 

Jim then may get pressed to share his views.

 

Rinse and repeat the whole thing over time

and numerous honest happy clients can

be quoted.

 

Such stuff is not optimal to base your opinion on

as it is based on and depends on very short term viewpoints.

 

 

 

As for the promised words from our own members here.

These are from this week. I would not call them "testimonials"

More so just some comments members made in passing

over the past week without being asked to do so.

 

A - This one is actually someone who was leaving the service

after several years of membership here.

I suspect the average punter to tipster goodbye email

may contain few more expletives than the below.

 

 

Key points

 

- His opinion was formed over several years not short term.

- Membership here has helped him develop his own skills as a punter.

 

I must have a serious word with Guy about his tendencies

to improve the racing skills of clients to such a  degree that

they feel capable enough to set out on their own.

Very admirable and all that but it is costing us money when they leave :)

I guess however it opens up a seat for someone else.

 

 

B - A board post from a member of two or more years.

He seems quite happy.

 

 

 

C - Another message board post from another member also of two years or so duration.

Note his experience with horses.

What did his experienced eyes see here that drew him in?

Why is he still with us two years on?

 

 

 

 

 

 

1 Highlighted Bet

 

Newbury 3.00

 

£2.50 Each Way Sizing Tennessee 16/1

 

£2.50 Each Way Flying Angel 20/1

 

Ladbrokes Trophy Day

 

Known to many as the Hennessy
Started the week with the priority
To get the winner of this handicap
This years it has none of it's magic

 

Ratings of horses in past renewals
Suggest this is a poor quality year
The field size also unusually small

 

This race was once a sacred ritual
Now smells like a Graded Handicap
Which is just how I have treated it
Sadly all that glistens is not gold

 

My Hennessy bets surprise me
But as you know I like that staking
And this years race is not standard
If I see the race as the Hennessy
Then we are unlikely to get it right
If we treat it as a Graded Handicap
Then our bet looks more sensible

 

Newbury 3.00

 

Kemboy 9/2 Thomas Patrick 5/1 Elegant Escape 5/1
Ms Parfois 6/1 Dingo Dollar 10/1 American 11/1
Black Corton 12/1 The Young Master 12/1
Sizing Tennessee 16/1 Beware The Bear 20/1
Flying Angel 20/1  West Approach 33/1
Allysson Monterg 33/1

 

Ladbroke Trophy

 

Hennessy Gold Cup

 

This race has cut up badly
Disappointing just 13 run

 

Ratings suggest it is weak
Not as good as past renewals
This does not have the shape
Of a typical Hennessy Gold Cup
So I am not treating it as such

 

This is just a Graded Handicap
And this years lacks it magic

 

Number of Chase runs

 

23 The Young Master
14 Black Corton
14 Flying Angel
12 Sizing Tennessee
9 West Approach
8 Elegant Escape
8 Beware The Bear
7 Ms Parfois
6  American
5 Dingo Dollar
5 Thomas Patrick
4 Allysson Monterg

 

Past winners Chase runs
7 7 9 7 11 4 14 3 12 23 5
4 4 6 4 11 6 5 6 7 11 5 13 7

 

THE YOUNG MASTER is exposed
He has already had  23 chase runs

 

Horses with under 15 chase runs
Won 23 of the last 24 past renewals

 

This is not your standard renewal
But similar Graded races these days
Are best left to less exposed horses

 

THE YOUNG MASTER is not a fit
You can argue he has recent runs
Argue he's well handicapped too
Both of those things are correct
If you look at his chasing form
On ground that is softer than good
The figures are not that impressive

 

BLACK CORTON is a 7 year old
He has had 14 previous Chase runs
Thats more than ideal for any 7yo
20 of the last 24 winners of this race
Had under 12 previous Chase races
The 2008 winner Madison Du Berlais
Probably is the closest match to him
BLACK CORTON has more weight
May be too exposed now to win this

 

Horses rated under 145
Have a 0-86 record since 2006
But this is not a typical Hennessy
The quality is much lower this year
It is 8lbs-lbs lower than standard
So this angle looks vulnerable

 

WEST APPROACH is rated 142
He pulled up on his previous run
A poor recent run is off-putting
Especially when just 2 weeks ago

 

ALLYSSON MONTERG is rated 144
He is a seasonal debutant aged 8

 

November and December
Graded Handicap Chases
Any distance in these 2 months
Horses aged 8
Absent more than 56 days
Have a 0-101 record since 2006
ALLYSSON MONTERG fails this angle
AMERICAN also fails this angle

 

AMERICAN is an 8 year old
Concerned he is a seasonal debutant
We know all 101 like him have failed
AMERICAN pulled up in this last year
He was strongly fancied around 5/1
Whilst fancied he was inexperienced
Only 2 runs since he's had problems
He has a curious jockey booking too
Sure the last is a very capable rider
But she's never won any race before
That was higher than Class 2 Grade
That was over further than 3 miles
That was at Newbury hurdles or fences

 

BEWARE THE BEAR is an 8yo
He fails the same stat as American
November and December
Graded Handicap Chases
Any distance in these 2 months
Horses aged 8
Absent more than 56 days
Have a 0-101 record since 2006
Look at his sire Shantou
His runners over 3m 1f +
Ground softer than good
In Listed or Graded class are 0-35

 

ELEGANT ESCAPE has 11st 10lbs
Tough task for a horse aged 6
The highest weighted 6yo winner
State of Play (2006) with 11st 4lbs
He has 6lbs more weight than him
Only legendary Mill House in 1963
Won Aged 6 with more than 11st 9lbs
He won his prep run at Sandown
The 4lbs penalty he got may hurt him
His stamina is not guaranteed either
He is Sired by Dubai Destination
This sire has bred 3 mile winners
But all came in Class 5 or lower grade
None have won over as far before
In anything like this kind of class

 

MS PARFOIS is a 7 year old mare
Thats not the most orthodox of profiles
But many 7yo debutants have won this
She does not get the mares allowance
But is well handicapped and well backed
Her Racing Post Chase ratings are these
129 139 142 150 146 151 151
The last 7 winners aged 7 like her
Had these Racing Post Chase Ratings
158 167 160 158 169 160 155
They all managed ratings of 158 or more
MS PARFOIS only has a rating of 151
But this is not a high class renewal

 

THOMAS PATRICK is a 6 year old
Comes here with a decent prep race
No strong statistical objections
He doesn't have too much backclass
But his numbers are quite progressive
And his last run was a career best
Just the price is looking very skinny

 

DINGO DOLLAR is a 6 year old
Has raced once this year over hurdles
Thats not a particularly orthodox profile
Don't have any strong objections to him
But if you look at his 5 Chase races
They were all in Novice races

 

FLYING ANGEL is rated 142
I can live with 14 Chase runs
He only ran 8 days ago as well
Whilst it was 2 grades lower than this
His Racing Post Rating was excellent
He did a Racing Post Rating of 152
10lbs better than his 142 handicap mark
You can argue his stamina isn't proven
Horses sired by Arcadio
Running in Class 2 or higher
Have a 0-14 record over 3m or more
When the ground is softer than good
None have won beyond 2 miles (0-22)
But the sire of the dam is Roselier
That tells me he has plenty of stamina
His run 8 days could be a problem
But it could also be a assistance too
And his numbers are very interesting

 

SIZING TENNESSEE is a 10 year old
Won first time out this year to his credit
I can argue he may not be good enough
But that might be quite an assumption
This is far from a vintage renewal
Whilst he is vulnerable to improvers
He is handicapped to win off this mark
He runs his best races in smaller fields
His last run is a joint career best figure
If you look at his sire Robin Des Champs
His runners in Listed/Graded races
That were over 3m 1f or more are 0-15
None won over this far in this class
But we can overlook that weak angle
Give he is 20/1 in a substandard race

 

Selection

 

£2.50 Each Way SIZING TENNESSEE 16/1

 

£2.50 Each Way FLYING ANGEL 16/1

 

============

 

 

 

Anyhow sorry for the long rant this week.

 

You are welcome in for this Saturday's racing analysis if you fancy it.

It is £3 one off at the usual spot

 

 

 

Or if full monthly membership for more daily action might suit you better

you can find the join page on our site.

 

If you have never been a full member

before drop me an email in advance perhaps.

 

I'd buy into the logic that you may like

a bit of cheap intro time so you can better judge

what is on offer here.

 

We make great pizza.

If you have a serious interest enquire

as to a good deal on a first sample slice.

 

Best Wishes

Mick

Site Admin