Mathematician-Betting.co.uk
A bit of a mixed bag for you this week.
 
#1 - Hennessy Lessons     ( learn from the past )
#2 - Beecher Chase Age Stats   ( a look to the future)
#3 - A Few Words From Our Members  ( includes some fishyness)
#4 - Hennessy Analysis From Last Week  ( as it says on the tin )
 
 
 
 
#1 - Hennessy Lessons
 
On Nov 16th I sent you out a copy of some of the advance research work
Guy had been providing for Full Members in preparation for The Hennessy or
The Ladbrokes Trophy as it is known these days.
Between then and now Guy gave full members a bit more advance research work
and then of course it all culminated on the day of the race itself.
 
A decent profit was made on the race.
I have copied his full reasoning from last Saturday below at the base of this email.
 
"Lesson" perhaps sounds a bit pompous and arrogant.
I don't claim to know everything about horse racing.
Nor does Guy.
Bookmaker odds compilers don't.
Even trainers don't.
There have even been a few historic instances of
Guy's research being passed on to a trainer
via owners within our membership that
have swayed a trainer to place a horse
in a certain race type to good effect.
 
Anyhow my grandfather was a teacher
and perhaps somewhere within my genetic code
lies a desire to help others improve themselves.
 
So my stab at a few possible points of learning
from last week's Hennessy may be
 
Lesson A - Most punters net lose over a year.
I do not know the exact percentages
but I have seen bandied about a stat that suggests
5% net winners and 95% net losers.
 
Now ponder the style of approaches
adopted by various groups of punters.
Punter types are wide ranging in reality but for
simplicity I have created three simple groups.
 
Group 1 - Little thought or effort to the selection process.
A one minute glance at the card on a betting shop wall is
all it takes.
 
Group 2 - There is a miracle quick no brainer selection system out there.
Systems are good because I do not like to work or think.
Despite every one I have tried over the last decade crashing and
burning a hole in my wallet I believe the holy grail of systems is out there.
 
Group 3 - I believe in very hard graft and detailed research.
Every race needs assessed in detail with thought to the
horses likelihood of winning and to the odds presented
on the day in the betting market.
 
 
Your homework is to take each of those three groups of punter style
and make your best guess as to whether place them into the group
of 95% of losers or the 5% of winners.
 
Take the lesson forwards with you and perhaps you may be better positioned
to understand what is required of yourself if intent on ploughing your own furrow
or you may be better positioned to assess the sensible viability or not
of the thousands of racing products out there current and future.
If you can better sort them into piles of
 
- Selling Dreams
and
- Grafting Hard on my behalf
 
you will be much better positioned to make improved future decisions.
 
 
 
Lesson B - In a years time you may have interest in the next running of the Hennessy.
Start your preparations now by filing away somewhere Guy's analysis below.
Pull it out again next year and you will have a source of very good inspiration
about how to go about finding potential value in next year's race.
 
 
Lesson C - Beware to a small degree Lesson B
 
Note Guy's Hennessy comment at email bottom below
 
"This is not your standard renewal"
 
10 year trends for major races are not an uncommon thing on the net.
A blind idiotic computer can easily churn out stats on a ten year sample
for a big race.
 
One can easily find the horse that is a perfect match to all positive trends
is pretty short in price. The one that is 80% good to trends could
be the best value on the day.
 
But you also have to go back to the core premiss of
treating each race as a unique and individual event.
 
Note that race organisers can do such stuff as
alter slightly the entry conditions for a race.
That happened recently for the Grand National for example.
 
Then there is the more common scenario of
just the nature of the horses that happen to
end up declared to run. Trainers and connections have
their whims about what races they target each year.
At the higher echelons of racing many owners do not even
care about the prize money for running well in a particular big race.
A 3rd place can blot the  look of a previous 111 record and
that can have impact on future stud value.
The right or wrong of some of the best horses not running
is perhaps a rant best reserved for another day perhaps.
 
Anyhow for whatever reason the typical profile of runners
this year in any race is not necessarily the same
as in past years.
 
There can be edge opportunity if you
can spot viable differences in a  renewal
and anticipate the majority of the market
backing blind to such changes.
 
The detailed thinker can in effect end up
taking cash from the blind trends systemite via the
in between medium of bookmaker or exchange.
 
 
 
#2 - Beecher Chase Age Stats
 
One of Guy's target races for Saturday is the Beecher chase.
 
It is a race he has significant recent success with.
See his 33/1 Highland Lodge analysis from 2015 here
 
 
 
Earlier in the week he gave full members some advance stats work on the race.
From that more expansive item I have pulled out his Beecher Chase age stats for you.
 
=============================================
 
Horses aged 6 are 0-9
Do not often run in this race
These are quite hard to rate
Only 9 have tried since 1997
They finished 4 2 F 4 3 6 F 4 UR
Placed horses were 14/1 25/1 17/2 20/1 33/1
Horses aged 6 or 7
With over 9 Chase runs are 0-28
Horses aged 6 or 7
With 10st 9lbs or more are 0-22

Horses aged 7
Have a 2-39 record since 10
Won 3 of the last 25 renewals
All 3 winners had 10st 9lbs or less
All 3 winners had under 9 Chase starts
Horses aged 6 or 7
With over 9 Chase runs are 0-28

Horses aged 8 are 4-68 since 1997
They had 16 4 13 13 chase runs
Have won 3 of the last 15 renewals
Last years 8yo winner had 11st 6lbs
None have yet won with more weight

Horses aged 9
Won 5 of the last 10 renewals
They had 16 18 13 17 20 chase runs

Horses aged 11 or more are 4-61
Those with 11st or more are 0-18
None have won with 11st + since it started
=============================================
 
 
Research such as the above is just an arsenal tool that assists
puzzle solving. Sometimes it can be more useful as a tool
to assist with crossing out the less likely.
Not backing losers tends not to get as much column inches in tipster press
as the more popular concept of backing winners but it can be just as important
at the end of the year when you sum up your net profit.
 
Then with the real world pragmatism of only having X hrs to analyse a race
it can be beneficial to have advanced thinking time concentrated on a smaller group
of more likely candidates.
 
I myself have not looked at the Beecher Chase at all.
With a busy life why would I bother when I know I can get Guy's final assessment of it on Saturday.
I'd trust it to be a significant step up on quality than I could do myself in the time.
If however I was forced to direct my magic pin blind to everything else bar
the above, I would probably point it somewhere of the zone of the 9 year olds
and the 8 year olds bearing in mind the extra weight comment about 8 year olds.
 
Guy may disagree come Saturday however with that.
Other factors not least odds available come into play for value calls.
 
 
You are welcome in yourself on Saturday if you like.
It is £3 for the Saturday analysis if you want it.
No need to worry about repeat billing.
Come and go as you please each Saturday.
 
If you want the hype of a
"Nailed on banker double digit odds inside plot horse for the Beecher Chase !"
..well sadly you are on the wrong newsletter.
There is probably a big 0898 telephone bill with your name on it however.
 
 
Here is the link to book in for this Saturday
 
 
 
 
 
#3 - A Few Words From Our Members
 
 
Testimonials on websites are often are not worth the webpage paper they are written on.
 
The worst are pure fabrication from non existent customers.
Certainly more than once we have been approached here
with suggestions that I can earn 50% commission on sales
if we recommend to you lot some new high hype betting site.
 
Often provided is copy and paste marketing material.
Amazingly before the site is even live there are a whole load of
glowing testimonials from happy customers'
I am supposed to use these glowing testimonials
to help convince you lot to go sign up.
 
Weirdly all the happy customers who could not wait to gush out testimonials
for this amazing life transforming product ( that is not even on sale yet )
appear to have the writing skills of trained marketing copywriters.
Often between them the will cover various positive upsides
of the wonder product in very eloquent style.
 
Often I suspect it is the same core operators
who will run a series of different sites under fictitious guises.
This week it may be how Bob the bin man found a scrawled note in
bookmakers bin that led him to untold riches.
Next month it will be something else on a new site.
 
More fishy than a sushi bar.
 
We do our best to protect you here from such lies with our
No "bullshit shall pass through"  filtering.
You should know by now not to expect it from here.
 
But the best protection is for you is to be aware it is out there.
Have your own radar tuned in for such stuff.
 
 
 
THEN
 
Not quite so fraudulent may be the short numbers game style of testimonial.
 
Let us imagine for example an imaginary site that targets even money favourites.
 
Let us also assume that the long term net profit record would be negative.
 
Now also ponder Bob and Jim joining up one week apart.
 
Bob joins first and gets one even money bet each day
hitting 6 losers and 1 winner that week.
 
Jim then joins the next week.
By pure luck he joins just on the perfect day to
hit a short term positive bit of statistical scatter.
Perhaps his first week  is a very nice 5 winners from 6.
 
Jim then may get pressed to share his views.
 
Rinse and repeat the whole thing over time
and numerous honest happy clients can
be quoted.
 
Such stuff is not optimal to base your opinion on
as it is based on and depends on very short term viewpoints.
 
 
 
As for the promised words from our own members here.
These are from this week. I would not call them "testimonials"
More so just some comments members made in passing
over the past week without being asked to do so.
 
A - This one is actually someone who was leaving the service
after several years of membership here.
I suspect the average punter to tipster goodbye email
may contain few more expletives than the below.
 
"After a number of years I am sorry to say I wish to cancel my subscription,
mainly because I feel I have got to a point where I prefer to do my own analysis
and now have more time. I have learnt a lot from Guy and have enjoyed the messages over the years. "
 
Key points
 
- His opinion was formed over several years not short term.
- Membership here has helped him develop his own skills as a punter.
 
I must have a serious word with Guy about his tendencies
to improve the racing skills of clients to such a  degree that
they feel capable enough to set out on their own.
Very admirable and all that but it is costing us money when they leave :)
I guess however it opens up a seat for someone else.
 
 
B - A board post from a member of two or more years.
He seems quite happy.
 
There are plenty of tipsters around who just give a cursory explanation of the reasons behind their tips.
The detailed breakdown allows me to modify the advised bets if the market changes
significantly and I also frequently operate in-running based on Guy's findings.
To me the analysis is the most important part of the message and I felt it necessary
to voice that approval at a time when Guy is considering altering the service.
I would not be happy with just the "best bet of the day",
but I know that there are plenty of people who would prefer that,
as they don't have the time to play the Betfair exchange."
 
 
C - Another message board post from another member also of two years or so duration.
Note his experience with horses.
What did his experienced eyes see here that drew him in?
Why is he still with us two years on?
 
considerably longer I can say that the quality you need when dealing with these wonderful creatures is patience.
Whether it's training, riding or betting, patience is what you need.
Don't change the service Guy. The horses won't care if you do.
As Sir Henry Cecil once said 'patience, patience, and then more patience'. "
 
 
 
 
#4 - Hennessy Analysis From Last Week
 

1 Highlighted Bet
 
Newbury 3.00
 
£2.50 Each Way Sizing Tennessee 16/1
 
£2.50 Each Way Flying Angel 20/1
 
Ladbrokes Trophy Day
 
Known to many as the Hennessy
Started the week with the priority
To get the winner of this handicap
This years it has none of it's magic
 
Ratings of horses in past renewals
Suggest this is a poor quality year
The field size also unusually small
 
This race was once a sacred ritual
Now smells like a Graded Handicap
Which is just how I have treated it
Sadly all that glistens is not gold
 

My Hennessy bets surprise me
But as you know I like that staking
And this years race is not standard
If I see the race as the Hennessy
Then we are unlikely to get it right
If we treat it as a Graded Handicap
Then our bet looks more sensible
 

Newbury 3.00
 
Kemboy 9/2 Thomas Patrick 5/1 Elegant Escape 5/1
Ms Parfois 6/1 Dingo Dollar 10/1 American 11/1
Black Corton 12/1 The Young Master 12/1
Sizing Tennessee 16/1 Beware The Bear 20/1
Flying Angel 20/1  West Approach 33/1
Allysson Monterg 33/1
 
Ladbroke Trophy
 
Hennessy Gold Cup
 
This race has cut up badly
Disappointing just 13 run
 
Ratings suggest it is weak
Not as good as past renewals
This does not have the shape
Of a typical Hennessy Gold Cup
So I am not treating it as such
 
This is just a Graded Handicap
And this years lacks it magic
 

Number of Chase runs
 
23 The Young Master
14 Black Corton
14 Flying Angel
12 Sizing Tennessee
9 West Approach
8 Elegant Escape
8 Beware The Bear
7 Ms Parfois
6  American
5 Dingo Dollar
5 Thomas Patrick
4 Allysson Monterg
 
Past winners Chase runs
7 7 9 7 11 4 14 3 12 23 5
4 4 6 4 11 6 5 6 7 11 5 13 7
 
THE YOUNG MASTER is exposed
He has already had  23 chase runs
 
Horses with under 15 chase runs
Won 23 of the last 24 past renewals
 
This is not your standard renewal
But similar Graded races these days
Are best left to less exposed horses
 
THE YOUNG MASTER is not a fit
You can argue he has recent runs
Argue he's well handicapped too
Both of those things are correct
If you look at his chasing form
On ground that is softer than good
The figures are not that impressive
 
BLACK CORTON is a 7 year old
He has had 14 previous Chase runs
Thats more than ideal for any 7yo
20 of the last 24 winners of this race
Had under 12 previous Chase races
The 2008 winner Madison Du Berlais
Probably is the closest match to him
BLACK CORTON has more weight
May be too exposed now to win this
 
Horses rated under 145
Have a 0-86 record since 2006
But this is not a typical Hennessy
The quality is much lower this year
It is 8lbs-lbs lower than standard
So this angle looks vulnerable
 
WEST APPROACH is rated 142
He pulled up on his previous run
A poor recent run is off-putting
Especially when just 2 weeks ago
 
ALLYSSON MONTERG is rated 144
He is a seasonal debutant aged 8
 
November and December
Graded Handicap Chases
Any distance in these 2 months
Horses aged 8
Absent more than 56 days
Have a 0-101 record since 2006
ALLYSSON MONTERG fails this angle
AMERICAN also fails this angle
 
AMERICAN is an 8 year old
Concerned he is a seasonal debutant
We know all 101 like him have failed
AMERICAN pulled up in this last year
He was strongly fancied around 5/1
Whilst fancied he was inexperienced
Only 2 runs since he's had problems
He has a curious jockey booking too
Sure the last is a very capable rider
But she's never won any race before
That was higher than Class 2 Grade
That was over further than 3 miles
That was at Newbury hurdles or fences
 
BEWARE THE BEAR is an 8yo
He fails the same stat as American
November and December
Graded Handicap Chases
Any distance in these 2 months
Horses aged 8
Absent more than 56 days
Have a 0-101 record since 2006
Look at his sire Shantou
His runners over 3m 1f +
Ground softer than good
In Listed or Graded class are 0-35
 
ELEGANT ESCAPE has 11st 10lbs
Tough task for a horse aged 6
The highest weighted 6yo winner
State of Play (2006) with 11st 4lbs
He has 6lbs more weight than him
Only legendary Mill House in 1963
Won Aged 6 with more than 11st 9lbs
He won his prep run at Sandown
The 4lbs penalty he got may hurt him
His stamina is not guaranteed either
He is Sired by Dubai Destination
This sire has bred 3 mile winners
But all came in Class 5 or lower grade
None have won over as far before
In anything like this kind of class
 
MS PARFOIS is a 7 year old mare
Thats not the most orthodox of profiles
But many 7yo debutants have won this
She does not get the mares allowance
But is well handicapped and well backed
Her Racing Post Chase ratings are these
129 139 142 150 146 151 151
The last 7 winners aged 7 like her
Had these Racing Post Chase Ratings
158 167 160 158 169 160 155
They all managed ratings of 158 or more
MS PARFOIS only has a rating of 151
But this is not a high class renewal
 
THOMAS PATRICK is a 6 year old
Comes here with a decent prep race
No strong statistical objections
He doesn't have too much backclass
But his numbers are quite progressive
And his last run was a career best
Just the price is looking very skinny
 
DINGO DOLLAR is a 6 year old
Has raced once this year over hurdles
Thats not a particularly orthodox profile
Don't have any strong objections to him
But if you look at his 5 Chase races
They were all in Novice races
 
FLYING ANGEL is rated 142
I can live with 14 Chase runs
He only ran 8 days ago as well
Whilst it was 2 grades lower than this
His Racing Post Rating was excellent
He did a Racing Post Rating of 152
10lbs better than his 142 handicap mark
You can argue his stamina isn't proven
Horses sired by Arcadio
Running in Class 2 or higher
Have a 0-14 record over 3m or more
When the ground is softer than good
None have won beyond 2 miles (0-22)
But the sire of the dam is Roselier
That tells me he has plenty of stamina
His run 8 days could be a problem
But it could also be a assistance too
And his numbers are very interesting
 
SIZING TENNESSEE is a 10 year old
Won first time out this year to his credit
I can argue he may not be good enough
But that might be quite an assumption
This is far from a vintage renewal
Whilst he is vulnerable to improvers
He is handicapped to win off this mark
He runs his best races in smaller fields
His last run is a joint career best figure
If you look at his sire Robin Des Champs
His runners in Listed/Graded races
That were over 3m 1f or more are 0-15
None won over this far in this class
But we can overlook that weak angle
Give he is 20/1 in a substandard race
 
Selection
 
£2.50 Each Way SIZING TENNESSEE 16/1
 
£2.50 Each Way FLYING ANGEL 16/1
 
========================
 
 
 
Anyhow sorry for the long rant this week.
 
You are welcome in for this Saturday's racing analysis if you fancy it.
It is £3 one off at the usual spot
 
 
 
Or if full monthly membership for more daily action might suit you better
you can find the join page on our site.
 
If you have never been a full member
before drop me an email in advance perhaps.
 
I'd buy into the logic that you may like
a bit of cheap intro time so you can better judge
what is on offer here.
 
We make great pizza.
If you have a serious interest enquire
as to a good deal on a first sample slice.
 


Best Wishes
Mick
Site Admin
 

 

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