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#1 DayPass Links

Just to get it out of the way here is
the usual memory jog link for our regular
Saturday only option.

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/daypass

or for Saturday regulars who prefer the hassle reduction
of sorting ten Saturdays in one go see
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/daypass/members/purchase.php


#2 My Wife Robbed My Betting Bank

This is from my inbox yesterday and brought
a little smile to my own face.

==================================
Hi Mick

With regret could you cancel membership
before the next payment is due?

I made the mistake of leaving my IPad lying
around still logged into Bet365 and the good lady
viewed it, all hell broke loose as I had to explain
where the near £3k that I'd never mentioned I had
came from!

Since July/Aug I've turned £1000 into £2920 following
Guys tips, pretty impressive to put it mildly.

Unfortunately that £2920 is now going towards a
new bathroom and I now have no betting bank,
hence my cancelling. She is actually watching me
write this email to make sure I send it!

Many Thanks


==================================


I see a few possible mistakes he made.

A - Not telling his wife in advance.
Upfront honesty is usually good.
But then again as married man myself
I'd often fall into the temptation of silence
about ideas I suspect may not get granted
executive approval at the highest house hold level.
It's often simpler just to do things and then
possibly discuss them later. :)

B - It looks like he did all his punting at one single bookie which was Bet365
Whilst handy it probably cost him cash through
inability to shop around for ultimate odds.
Also of course when his secret pot was discovered
it would have been better if only a portion of the total
had been revealed.
A smart pirate would bury his treasure across more than one chest.

C - Could he have attempted to negociate a better settlement?

One initial target for bank building can be a doubling.
At that point 100% of initial capital can be withdrawn
and then you are effectively investing with zero risk to
your original capital.

He could have taken out his original £1000
and then another £500 as banked profit and left
a semi decent bank of 100% bookmakers money
as a new starting point.

Perhaps his next aim may have been enough for
both a new bathroom and a new kitchen.

The spreadsheet at
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/download/rolling-bank.xls
is a useful basic "what if" analysis style tool that examines bank compounding.

Is withdrawal of all funds from something on this path 100% logical?


Other Side Line Thoughts Inspired

Springing to my mind from his wife's reaction is the battle shrewd
sports punters often face against conventional wisdom.
Conventional wisdom I'd peg as what the majority
of the population perceive to be true.
But there can be a big difference between what is
perceived be to true by a majority
and what the real truth actually is.

Lemmings jump of cliffs don't they?

It would be conventional wisdom that that indeed is their forte.

But according to wikipedia at least it appears not.

In the 50's there was a documentary made
by Disney showing lemmings jumping.
This reconfirmed the conventional wisdom of the world.
But it turns out Disney shipped in some lemmings and then
threw them off the cliff by the bucket load to get the shots the director needed.
The director did not want truth to stand in the way of the story
he was getting paid to tell.

There is a lot of mis informed conventional wisdom
floating around about punting as well.

For example these old lines "You can't beat the bookmaker"
and "Gambling is only for mugs".

Well you can and it's not.

The bookmakers only defence against many punters is to refuse
to do business with those punters.
The bookies know it.

Betting of course has dangers.
Some mindsets are not at all suitable for it
and there would certainly be some punter horror
stories about.

A sharp knife needs treated with respect
but handled correctly it is a useful implement.

A lot of the world however just sees black and white.
"Ban all knives in case someone cuts themselves" they shout.

There is a lot if irrationality about as well.

eg picture this imaginary fictitious example.

It's Champion's league final day.

Bookie A is 11/10 about Real Madrid to outright win
Bookie B 11/10 about Barcelona.

Back both and you can not lose.

On the other hand you could take your cash
and pay someone to gamble it on the stock market for you
under the guise of an ISA or Pension and lose a lot of it.

Conventional wisdom says one is silly gambling for mugs
and the other is shrewd financial wizardry.

But which is which?


I put much the same point to our client friend above and his reply was

"I agree entirely with your comments on so called investment professionals.

Blackrock who manage my pension fund have managed to reduce its value by
16% over the past 12 months and they are 'award winning professional investors'.
I've also paid them for the privilege!

Me on the other hand, a lowly gambler has seen a return of around 180% in 5 months."

#3 Bottling Out

You know I myself never give you my own racing tips.
Guy is the nitty gritty racing expert here.
Me talking about individual horses would be
a bit like bringing Pavorotti to the party but
insisting on croaking out a tone deaf song myself.

But on Nov 20th last year I did a rare thing and told you
I had stuck £100 on Faugheen for the Champion Hurlde
at 15/8

It was more so meant as a general lesson about
seeking to oppose or capitalise on mass population
over reactions. More so about the overall principle
than the horse.

See a copy of that old newsletter here.
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/newsletter/Over-Priced-Cheltenham-Horse-Or-Not.htm

Anyhow just in case you copied my bet yourself at the time
note that I myself have just laid it back on Betfair at about 1.53
( around 1/2 on in old terms )

I laid £100 back so now have just £5 risk
assuming 5% betfair exchange commission.

(Had I used Smarkets instead that would be £2 or 2% )


Should Faugheen win that's £134.50 profit.
That gives me net odds of about 27/1
about a horse that is now 1/2 on
.

Part of me thinks I am bottling it and should just let it ride.
That would have been a possible £187.50 profit but for £100 risk.

I believe the most likely scenario is a Faugheen victory.
If the 1/2 is deemed true odds that's two victories out of
three to be expected.
But still there are six or so weeks to go to Cheltenham
and anything can happen.
Training injury, horse box in a car crash
or even some bug striking the yard.
Horse cold can be almost as serious as man cold :)

If you followed my lead back in November
you can make your own call now for yourself
dependant on your own nature.

But shrivelly cajones here has sold back
when the conventional wisdom of the crowds
is that Faugheen is almost unbeatable.

Anyhow if you are fed up listening to me talk about stuff in general
and instead want detailed info about specific horses in live Saturday races
then go invest £3 for Guy's Saturday message at
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/daypass

 

Best wishes
Mick
Site Admin
www.mathematician-betting.co.uk


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