Cambridgeshire Statistics

The Cambridgeshire runs on Saturday at Newmarket.

This is not a race Guy here looks at every year.A 30 odd runner handicap whilst being fine for a dart thrower is a long and scary bit of work for someone who prefers to look at each horse in detail.

Guy's last look at the race was back in 2014 when his stats research led him to a shortlist of two. Bronze Angel won at 14/1 SP ( 20/1 early ) and Velox was third at 8/1 SP. See Cambridgeshire 2014

I am putting this page up on Wednesday and whilst Guy has yet to complete more detailed work on actual shortlisting he did put out early stats on the race as an aid to any clients with an interest in the race.

So if you are a bit of a DIY'er with your racing I hope you find them of use. They are the same sort of thing Guy used in 2014 to find the winner with.

If on the other hand you are the sort who prefers an expert's final conclusion on the day of the race, then I would point you to our £3 Saturday Service

 

 

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Cambridgeshire Statistics

Saturday Newmarket 4.10

The Cambridgeshire is a Handicap over 9f
No horse has won this with under 5 career starts
Look at the results of horses that had 1-2-3-4 runs
23 5 30 26 29 18 6 33 16 11 20 28 18 10 22
5th and 6th place is the best any achieved

Horses from 7f or shorter won 4 races
They all finished 1st or 2nd last time out
They all had 4 or more runs that season
All 30 have lost since 2001 though

Past winners with 20 + career starts are 6-191
They all had at least 4 runs that season
None of these were aged 7 or more
They were all Male
They all ran within 42 days
5 of the 6 ran within 16 days
Those beaten 6 + lengths last time out were 0-75
None had more than 9st 2lbs weight

Horses with 28 or more runs are 1-114
The best range is 5-27 runs
Horses aged 5-6 with 21-27 runs
Running within 3 weeks
Beaten under 10 lengths last time
Coming from a Handicap have a 4-15 record

Look for a horse from a Grade 1 Track
25 of the last 26 winners came from these Grade 1 Tracks
Ascot (5) Doncaster (8) Goodwood (2)
Newbury (5) Newmarket (1) Sandown (1) York (3)
Over 190 horses came from Smaller non Grade 1 tracks
Only 1 of these won but that was last year

Horses coming from Listed or Group class score badly
The 2013 winner did it but none before that in decades

You want a horse with Class 2 form
Only 2 winners in the last 23 years lacked Class 2 form
They were lightly raced with 10 and 5 career starts

Horses aged 3 have a 4-110 record since 2000
These 4 winners had 10 5 12 11
They had 4 or more races that season
These 3 year olds are fine with absences
None though had form in Listed or Group Races before
The 3yo winners won from ratings of 95 102 97 95
3yo's who were unraced as juveniles have won this more than once
Going back to 1998
Winners aged 3 had the following runs
10 10 5 12 11 5 5 5 6
Winners aged 3 had the following runs that season
6 4 5 6 8 5 5 4 6


Horses aged 4 have a 6-200 record
Past 4yo winners had 10 5 8 14 12 7 runs
All 4yo winners had Class 2 form
Only 1 of them had Group Class form before
I'd prefer no Group runs for 4yo's
4yo winners won from ratings of 104 102 99 87 99 92 91 85 84

Horses aged 5 have a 3-98 record
They have won 3 of the last 6 renewals
Horses aged 5 that won had 21 23 26 career starts
They won with absences of 2 14 16 days
They won from marks of 91 and 87

Horses aged 6 had a 3-58 record
All of these ran within 6 lengths of the winner last time
Past 6yo winners had 22 46 21 runs
Past 6yo winners had 4 + races that season
Past 6yo winners were absent 42 14 7 days
They did all have Class 2 form but no higher though
6yo winners won from ratings of 100 95 88

Horses aged 7 or more are 0-63 since 1997
The last time any 7yo won was back in 1992
The previous one was back in 1980


Horses from conditions races are 1-43
No winner dropped from 12f in the last 25 years
No winner of this race came from Class 4 or lower
Female horses won 3 renewals since 1987
All 3 had between 5-20 runs and aged 4 or more
They all carried 8st 8lbs or less
I looked at winners that were absent a month or more
They tended to have under 15 career starts
Horses absent more than 6 weeks
With 15 or more career starts were 0-57
Horses beaten more than 6 lengths last time are awful
Only 1 of the last 25 winners came here beaten that far

 

 

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