Cambridgeshire Statistics

The Cambridgeshire on Saturday

Statistics for Saturdays main race are below for you .
This race won’t play a significant
part in Saturday’s full member message.
I know however that many will like
a crack at one of the best handicaps of the year
so if you want to have a go the angles may help.

You may come to a different conclusion from me
if applying these angles as these are left open to
some interpretation. On my first scan of the race
I came out with two horses that I liked best. They
are not selections yet, simply early impressions.

Preliminary Shortlist

VELOX 12/1
BRONZE ANGEL 20/1

=======================================

Saturday 3.50

Ante Post Statistics

betfred Cambridgeshire
(Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2)
1m1f Row

Cornrow 6/1, Educate 10/1, Queensberry Rules 10/1
Extremity 11/1, Homage 12/1, Velox 12/1, Tenor
14/1 Bronze Angel 16/1, Energia Davos 16/1, Forgotten Hero 16/1
NiceofyouTotellme 16/1, Balty Boys 20/1, Bartack 20/1
Gabrial’s Kaka 20/1, Bancnuanaheireann 25/1, Chancery 25/1
Big Johnny D 25/1, Boomshackerlacker 25/1, Buckstay 25/1,
Dance And Dance 25/1, Fort Bastion 25/1,
Genius Boy 25/1, God Willing 25/1, Indian Chief 25/1,
Maverick Wave 25/1, Pacific Heights 25/1, Quick Wit 25/1,
Sound Advice 25/1, Spa’s Dancer 25/1, Spirit Of The Law 25/1
The Rectifier 25/1, Tigers Tale 25/1, Tres Coronas 25/1,
Ingleby Angel 33/1, Yeager 33/1

* The Cambridgeshire is a Handicap over 9f
* No horse has won this with under 5 career starts
* Look at the results of horses that had 1-2-3-4 runs
* 5 30 26 29 18 6 33 16 11 20 28 18 10 22
* 5th and 6th place is the best any achieved

* Horses from 7f or shorter won 4 races
* They all finished 1st or 2nd last time out
* They all had 4 or more runs that season

* Past winners with over 20 career starts are 7-278
* They all had at least 4 runs that season
* None of these were aged 7 or more
* They were all Male
* They all ran within 42 days
* Those beaten 6 + lengths last time out were 0-126
* None had more than 9st 2lbs weight

* Look for a horse from a Grade 1 Track
* The Last 24 winners came from these Grade 1 Tracks
* Ascot (5) Doncaster (7) Goodwood (2)
* Newbury (5) Newmarket (1) Sandown (1) York (3)
* Over 180 horses came from Smaller non Grade 1 tracks
* All 180 of these horses were beaten

* Horses coming from Listed or Group class score badly
* Last years winner did it but none before that in decades

* You want a horse with Class 2 form
* Only 1 winner in the last 23 years lacked Class 2 form
* That was Halling 1994 a 3yo with only 5 previous runs

* Horses aged 3 have a 6-193 record
* These 6 winners had 10 5 12 11 5 5 runs
* They had 4 5 6 8 5 5 races that season
* They were absent 100 65 14 22 44 21 days
* None had form in Listed or Group Races before
* 5 of them had Class 2 form the other Class 3 form
* The 3yo winners won from ratings of 95 90 102 97 107 93
* There were 3 winners unraced as 2yo’s with 5 runs as 3yo’s

* Horses aged 4 have a 9-269 record
* Past 4yo winners had 14 8 7 10 12 5 10 22 20 runs
* Past 4yo winners had 7 6 4 0 5 1 1 9 6 races that season
* Past 4yo winners were absent 35 14 14 342 56 190 84 22 7 days
* 4yo winners came in many different forms
* They did all have Class 2 form
* Only last years winning 4yo had Group Class form
* Before last year 4yo’s with pattern class form were 0-84
* He won by a short head so he only just bust that 0-84 stat
* I’d prefer no Group runs for 4yo’s but it has now been done
* 4yo winners won from ratings of 104 102 99 87 99 92 91 85 84

* Horses aged 5 have a 2-141 record
* They were 0-112 until winning in 2010-2011
* Horses aged 5 that win had 21 and 26 career starts
* They had 5 and 7 runs that season
* They won with absences of 2 and 16 days
* They won from marks of 91 and 87

* Horses aged 6 had a 5-85 record
* Thats the best strike rate of any age
* All 5 finished within 6 lengths of the winner last time
* Past 6yo winners had 23 26 46 13 21 runs
* Past 6yo winners had 4 7 8 8 7 races that season
* Past 6yo winners were absent 42 14 7 13 21 days
* They did all have Class 2 form but no higher though
* 6yo winners won from ratings of 100 95 88 78 92

* Horses aged 7 or more are 1-68 since 1991
* That was back in 1992 and just 1 has won since 1980

* Be wary of last time out winners
* None that ran within 7 weeks have won for a long time
* The last 63 to try since 1996 have been beaten

* Few winners come from any conditions races
* No winner dropped from 12f in the last 23 years
* No winner of this race came from Class 4 or lower
* Female horses won 3 renewals since 1987
* All 3 had between 5-20 runs and aged 4 or more
* They all carried 8st 8lbs or less
* I looked at winners that were absent a month or more
* They tended to have under 15 career starts
* Horses beaten more than 6 lengths last time are awful
* Only 1 of the last 23 winners came here beaten that far

 

 

 

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Guy Ward

 

 


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