Cheltenham Ballymore Novices' Hurdle Tip

This is a copy of Cheltenham Betting Advice from a past year.

It's just a sample really to demonstrate to you the style of service message provided to our clients here.

 

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Cheltenham 1.30

7/2 Champ, 7/2 Battleoverdoyen, 6/1 City Island,
8/1 Brewin'upastorm, 10/1 Sams Profile, 14/1 Beakstown,
14/1 Easy Game, 20/1 Bright Forecast, 20/1 Dunvegan,
25/1 Castlebawn West, Galvin, 33/1 Jarveys Plate,
40/1 Ask Dillon, 66/1 Notebook, Seddon, Valdieu.

Ballymore Novices' Hurdle
Grade 1 Hurdle over 2m 5f

No ideal profile this year

CHAMP sets the standard to far
His biggest statistical issue is his age

Past history of this race since 1971
Horses aged 7 or more
Won this in 1974 and 1998
That is a pretty miserable return
Since 1999 Horses aged 7 + are 0-61
CHAMP fails the age statistics

BATTLEOVERDOYEN chief market threat
Has inexperience as his main problem

Recent winners
Had the following lifetime runs
6 7 6 9 4 8 4 5 3 8 4 11 9

BATTLEOVERDOYEN has 3 career runs
Less than every other horse in the race
Only the 2010 winner had under 4 runs
That horse was a younger 5 year old

BATTLEOVERDOYEN is sired by Doyen
No horse by this sire has won over this far
In Listed or Graded class before

That said it is not a typical Ballymore
Most of the major players in this
Are lightly raced with few hurdle runs
Id rather not abandon a top Irish stable
For a middle of the road English one
Just because they have 1 more race

EASY GAME fails a generic statistic
Absent too long for a 5 year old
DUNVEGAN was beaten too far last time
Far from certain to stay this far
BRIGHT FORECAST lots to prove
JARVEYS PLATE needs to improve
But could not entirely rule him out
Not for me from a smaller stable
GALVIN has gone over the radar
His numbers do need to improve
He is not his stables first string

BREWIN'UPASTORM is a 6yo
Behind CHAMP in the Challow Hurdle
But made him a negative that day
He was too inexperienced for the race
He fell at the last on his latest start
Not a good idea betting last time fallers

CITY ISLAND looks progressive
Does not need to improve very much
But he has no Graded form

If you look at past renewals
Horses last time out run
Every winner bar Simonsig (2012)
Came from a Listed or Graded race
Horses from Class 2 or lower
Have a 1-71 record in this race
CITY ISLAND fails this statistic
GALVIN fails this statistic

CITY ISLAND may be best forgiven this
He won on his hurdling debut
But was disqualified testing positive
Meant he had to stay in Maiden Hurdles
Rather than head into Graded company
He has won all 3 of his hurdle runs so far
Also very interesting that his owner
Sponsors the race and this is a long term plan

SAMS PROFILE will like the ground
Won a Maiden hurdle then 2 x 2nd places
He may have had excuses in his last 2 runs
May not have stayed 3m at Cork
Found the ground too fast last time
But he was still well beaten at 16/1
Considered him as a second saver

Hurdle Runs

5 Champ
4 Jarveys Plate
3 Beakstown - City Island- Galvin
3 Sams Profile - Brewin'upastorm
2 Battleoverdoyen - Bright Forecast

CHAMP has the most hurdling experience
Aside from Jarveys Plate
Who comes from a small English Stable
He has 2 more runs than his main rivals

I could overlook him being a 7yo
CHAMP has the most runs
He has the most hurdle runs
He has the best numbers
Not entirely convinced with the race
But going to make him a saver bet

Selection

£4.00 Each Way CITY ISLAND 9/1

£2.00 Win Bet CHAMP 7/2

Each Way 1-2-3-4 Places

Race Result

CITY ISLAND - - WON

CHAMP - 2nd

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
 

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