Cheltenham Horse Racing Tip Example

This is a complete and unedited copy of our only advised account bet over Cheltenham 2008.

It's just a sample really to demonstrate to you the style of service provided to our clients here.

Key points to note would be

1 - The depth of reasoning behind an account bet.

It should be clear to you that Guys success is down to knowledge and a lot of detailed research work.

2 - Also note that in addition to the main tip, a typical day also includes a lot of extra and additional analysis clients are free to utilise in any extra bets they care to make for themselves.

If you check the results from last year you will see Old Benny won, High Chimes won, Mossbank and Zarrito were both placed.

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Thursday March 13th 2008

Account Bet

Cheltenham 12.30

OLD BENNY 14/1

£25 Each Way


Only staking £50 today rather than £100 as its very competitive and if I am right the rewards are there. Most firms go 14/1 and that includes the big 3. A Long way from a certainty but I feel this trip will be the making of him and I like the drying ground and think its a race that can be won.

"The Best 2 days of Racing Ever " say the Racing Post. I will only agree with that if we win money on the 2 days. It does look mouth watering but I don't want to spoil the pleasure and adrenaline with stupid bets - Heavy Losses and throwing money away in races that look more of a mystery than Arthur C Clarke could have imagined.

Extracting my Best Bet and Staking it today (Old Benny) and I have to consider that as the Most Important Priority. If I were you I would have some Quadpots . I have done one but have a few of your own as it may pay well and its far more enjoyable and actually easier than trying to fathom out what wins some races.

My own bets today - A Few Quadpots to small stakes. I have long been looking at the National Hunt Chase (12.30) and felt it was a race I had a very good chance of getting right and OLD BENNY will be a decent bet for me. MIGHTY MATTERS 14/1 is probably my second strongest bet and I will be betting him. TWIST MAGIC e/w has to come out as my 3rd best bet.To be perfectly honest the other selections just come down to small low stake interest only bets
and bets I will have only because its Cheltenham. In terms of having a massive winning day I have two options. I have to get the 12.30 right or rely on my Quadpots. We need so much luck today and some of the Vile later races look impossible and I have had to fall back on my stats and they have been stretched to the limit today and its a card that gets harder the longer it goes.

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T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G

Todays Selections


Cheltenham 12.30 OLD BENNY 12/1 Each Way

Cheltenham 1.05 - OSCAR PARK - Saver on Verasi 25/1

Cheltenham 1.40 - NO SELECTION

Cheltenham 2.20 - TWIST MAGIC 5/1 Each Way

Cheltenham 2.55 - MOSSBANK 7/2 Each Way

Cheltenham 3.30 - Forecast - KASBAH BLISS to beat INGLIS DREVER
Cheltenham 3.30 - Forecast - BLAZING BAILEY to beat INGLIS DREVER

Cheltenham 4.05 - MIGHTY MATTERS 16/1 (WIN) and BIBLE LORD (Saver) 7/1

Cheltenham 4.40 - Split Stakes on ONNIX 11/1 and FOOTY FACTS 20/1

Cheltenham 5.15 - HIGH CHIMES 16/1 Each Way

Cheltenham 5.50 - ZAARITO Each Way


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Q U A D P O T

Good start with the Quadpot on Day 1 Managed to win the dividend with 4 perms. A £1 Quadpot would have cost you £4 and returned £45.80 and I have to be pleased with that. It should at least pay for the Quadpots for the rest of the week so we should be in "cant lose" territory now. You can have the Quadpot on Betfair on their new "Tote" markets.


Cheltenham 1.40 - GOLD MEDALLIST - MR STRACHAN - FINGER ONTHE PULSE
Cheltenham 2.20 - TWIST MAGIC
Cheltenham 2.55 - MOSSBANK - L'ANTARTIQUE
Cheltenham 3.30 - INGLIS DREVER - KASBAH BLISS


12 Perms today


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Tuesdays Summary


Not a Bad day overall. Shame my strongest bet didnt seal a great day as River Liane failed and the saver Ashkazar bravely failed to recover stakes. TIDAL BAY was the highlight winning at 6/1 but we needed that as HEADS ON THE GROUND found the weight beyond him. BINOCULAR (2nd) OSANA (2nd) and NEW ALCO (2nd) were all beaten in close
finishes and whilst they all gave us a run for our money it was just a shame we couldnt get the second winner. Honours Even I felt on an interesting day.


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TODAY'S RACING


CHELTENHAM 12:30 - PETER O'SULLEVAN NATIONAL HUNT CHASE (AMATEURS) (CLASS 2) (5yo+) 4m

4/1 Ornais, 5/1 Over The Creek, 8/1 Back On Line, 9/1 Beantown, 12/1 Old Benny, Sandhurst, 14/1 Here´s Johnny, Ice Tea, 16/1 Leading Authority, 20/1 Menchikov, Niche Market, Oulart, 25/1 In Accord, Rimsky, Sherwoods Folly, Sizing Australia, 40/1 Millards Lad, Pass It On, 50/1 Dreux, The King Of Angels.

SELECTION - OLD BENNY Each Way

* This is a 4m Novice Chase - the old National Hunt Chase
* The last 3 winners were 33/1 33/1 and 40/1 + a 25/1 as well 5 years ago
* OULART and DREUX look too exposed to be winning
* No horse like OULART had more than 15 Chase starts
* I dont want to bet any horse that ran within 14 days (1-61 record)
* IN ACCORD and OULART fail that
* Do not bet horses that ran with a 7 week or more absence
* Only the 1998 winner who was different class won this with an absence
* SIZING AUSTRALIA fails that
* You want at least 3 career starts - All winners since 1993 could say that
* SANDHURST fails that and has less experience than every other runner
* That Said I want to keep SANDHURST on my side as he is "Interesting"
* You want at least 4 runs that season
* The only time in 15 years the winner ran fewer than 4 times was in 1998
* Wandering Light ran just twice that year. He was different class that year
* The last 16 winners had the following races in the season they won
* They had 7-4-4-4-5-8-5-6-2-7-7-6-5-10-4-4 previous races that season
* OULART fails that
* BEANTOWN has ran just twice this season but again I want to keep him on side
* MENCHIKOV has ran just once this year and he is out
* PASS IT ON has ran just 3 times but will be respected for connections
* ORNAIS has had only 3 runs and is a 6 year old
* Horses aged 6 have a 0-43 record since 1989.
* This race looks too tough for them
* ORNAIS - THE KING OF ANGELS - DREUX are 6 year olds
* So to are SHERWOODS FOLLY - SIZING AUSTRALIA
* I want to oppose ORNAIS as a 6 year old and just 3 runs that year
* His worst two runs came at this track and he may be more of an Aintree horse
* His trainer has raised doubts about the Track as well
* OVER THE CREEK was 4th last time in the Reynoldstown beaten 27 lengths
* OVER THE CREEK is reasonably sound statistically despite being a 9 year old
* They dont score that well but they can win
* My objection to OVER THE CREEK is the same as it was for the Reynoldstown
* I hated the fact he came from the Welsh National
* He was 3rd in a hard race for the Welsh National and that may have knocked him back
* He had nothing to offer last time out and I would be wary about that
* Has he left his season behind at Chepstow would be my main worry
* Thats no more than a hunch but I opposed him correctly last time for the same reason.
* NICHE MARKET has two poor runs to put behind him
* Would be worried about his last 2 runs and he isnt from a stable with a festival pedigree
* LEADING AUTHORITY has form closely tied up and has a similar weak chance
* HERES JOHNNY has to put his last run behind him when jumping badly
* 22 of the last 24 winners had a 1-2-3-4 place last time out
* MILLARDS LAD has an outsiders chance much as he isnt the best age
* I cant fault ICE TEA statistically other than failing to place last time
* He isnt totally out of this but he will need a career best

SHORTLIST

BACK ON LINE -BEANTOWN -OLD BENNY -RIMSKY -SANDHURST

Since 2002 the race conditions have changed. If we take the last 6 winners you will see that all winners came from 25f or shorter. There were no horses that ran over 3m 2f or more last time. That suggests to me these horses are slower and although they look better bets as they have less stamina to find they really are not as they lack the class of the speedier horses. Its almost the same as why 2 milers on the Flat do not win the St Leger despite being the proven stayers. In the last 3 renewals there were 21 horses that ran at 3m 2f or more on their last run
and only 1 of these managed to scrape a place. I am going to follow this in this race and that means ignoring he horses that ran at beyond 25f last time out. These include BACK ON LINE and RIMSKI

* BACK ON LINE had an otherwise excellent profile in my view
* She is a Mare - and comes from a handicap but I am ok with that
* Loving Around (1996) was a Mare that won this from a handicap
* As she ran at over 25f last time I take her on
* She may also need softer ground
* RIMSKY was placed in the Eider Chase last time out
* So to was the 1993 winner (Ushers Island)
* RIMSKY loves soft ground and I wonder if it will be soft enough
* I reject RIMSKY as he ran at 4m last time

This leaves 3

BEANTOWN -OLD BENNY -RIMSKY -SANDHURST

I feel I have to give massive respect to SANDHURST but have to overlook him down to his lack of experience. SANDHURST has inexperience to worry about and thats a
big problem. He looks a very interesting prospect and is clearly laid out for this and he looks a horse that has a lot of ability and I wouldnt put it past him to sicken me by winning but he is very inexperienced and has only ran in 1 completed chase as he fell at the last on his second run. BEANTOWN is interesting. He was second in this race in 2006 at 40/1 and that was an excellent run for such an
inexperienced horse. Injury has held him back since but he won well last time and looks a big runner and he's been Laid out for the race. What I dont like about him is the fact he is a 10 year old - and has just 2 runs this season.


OLD BENNY is therefore my choice and I am more than happy with him. He is held on form by Ornais last time out but this is a completely different test over a Mile more and I feel that suits me far more and I dont see any reason why this track should be a problem. That risk is factored into his price.

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CHELTENHAM 1:05 - ROYAL & SUNALLIANCE CHASE GRADE 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m110y

9/2 Air Force One, Albertas Run, 5/1 Pomme Tiepy, 13/2 Silverburn, 7/1 Oscar Park, 8/1 Starzaan, 12/1 Joe Lively, 20/1 Battlecry, Roll Along, Verasi, 50/1 Bagan,

* There is a nice managable field for this years Sun Alliance
* I would be against all horses that step up from 2m 4f or shorter
* No recent winner came from 2m 4f or shorter and ROLL ALONG fails that
* POMME TIEPY is a real dilemma as a 5 year old Mare
* Very hard to know how she will get on but I have to be sceptical
* 5 year olds have had their allowances slashed this year
* POMME TIEPY does get a Mares allowance to offset that
* Her connections are said to be "worried" about her age but they cant be that worried if running
* POMME TIEPY has less experience than most past winners
* I think from a statistical point of view you have to take a neutral position
* There is nowhere near enough evidence to make POMME TIEPY a negative
* Equally its a genuine concern and I dont see enough evidence to make her the selection
* I have to take a neutral position on her
* Truth of the matter is I havent a clue which side of the fence to come down on with her
* Trends show you are better off with a 7-8 year old
* Horses aged 7 have dominated in recent years. They have won 6 of the last 8 renewals
* They won this in 1999-2000-2002-2003-2005-2007. Put this age group top of the list.
* 8 Year olds are by far the second best age group in this race.
* 11 of the last 13 winners were aged 7 or 8
* STARZAAN is the wrong age and Flat bred and only has 2 chase starts
* STARZAAN is a 9 year old and the last 9 year old winner was in 1992
* Only 3 horses aged 9 or more have won since 1948.
* It is a race dominated by National Hunt Bred Stayers and Not Flat Bred horses.
* After all 14 of the last 16 winners were National Hunt Bred horses.
* STARZAAN is flat bred and the fact he has 2 Chase starts is an issue
* The Last 8 winners had ran in 4 3 8 5 4 3 5 4 Chases before this race
* All recent winners had at least 3 runs in Chases
* ROLL ALONG also fails that
* There is also a doubt about STARZAAN's stamina and rain wont help
* AIR FORCE ONE is also a 6 year old and they havent done well
* Florida Pearl (1998) won this aged 6 but we now know he was Top Class
* Only 1 other managed it since 1978 and that was a small field with many fallers
* It takes a Top Class 6 year old to win this race.
* I am going to oppose AIR FORCE ONE
* ALBERTAS RUN won the Reynoldstown from AIR FORCE ONE
* The Reynoldstown winner has not won this race in 35 years
* Not a stat that I really believe in to be honest and see that as "forgiveable"
* ALBERTAS RUN is shortlisted and I dont see a problem with his trial race
* BATTLE CRY and JOE LIVELY were also behind in that same race
* BATTLE CRY comes out fine statistically and has a chance
* It seems imperative that a horse should be 1st or 2nd on their latest start.
* 30 of the last 33 winners either won their last race or were second.
* BAGAN fails that and comes here after pulling up
* JOE LIVELY also fails that when coming 5th last time
* JOE LIVELY won the Feltham and also ran in the Reynoldstown
* The winner of the Feltham Chase has not won this race since 1975.
* JOE LIVELY is also a 9yo and they dont score very well
* VERASI is fine statistically but may be a little exposed
* SILVERBURN comes here as strong statistically but has to prove he stays
* There is a genuine doubt on his pedigree that he will stay
* He is a Full brother to Denman and he certainly stats this far
* There are doubts though and connections have misgivings

GRADED FORM

One thing that has struck me about the Sun Alliance is how badly horses that come from Graded races have done. This race has been dominated by horses that did NOT
come from Graded races. These horses presumably "peak" today and not in the Graded race they come from.

* EVERY Winner between 1996 and 2007 came from Class 2 or lower
* Before 1996 we had 3 winners come from Graded races
* What you find though is almost no horses that did not wer fancied in those years
* I strongly take the view that its best to avoid horses that ran in Graded class last time
* If this happens then the winner will be one of these horses
* OSCAR PARK - ROLL ON - STARZAAN - VERASI
* I am already against STARZAAN from earlier trends
* ROLL ON comes from 19f and with 2 runs its a big leap for me
* No past winner came from 20f or less and I have to let him go

SHORTLIST

OSCAR PARK
VERASI (SAVER)

* I will go with this pair as the shortlist
* VERASI is worth a small win bet at 25/1
* OSCAR PARK is a 9 year old but I can forgive him that
* He came to fences late in his career
* Dont forget he didnt start racing until he was a 5 year old
* That surely counts for a lot
* After two easy wins out of Graded class I hope he can take this
* Ladbrokes clearly want him on their side as they are significantly shorter about him
* I am going to select OSCAR PARK and save on VERASI

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CHELTENHAM 1:40 - JEWSON NOVICES' HANDICAP CHASE (LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m5f

5/1 Dear Villez, 8/1 Finger Onthe Pulse, 9/1 Ambobo, Arturio, Mr Strachan, 10/1 Barbers Shop, Boomshakalaka, 11/1 Gold Medallist, 12/1 Big Buck´s, 14/1 Something Wells, 16/1 Lord Ryeford, Possol, Templer, 20/1 Gods Token, Pauillac, The Hairy Lemon, 25/1 The Entomologist, 33/1 Fleet Street, Merry Cowboy, Nudge And Nurdle.

* The Jewson is a Novice Handicap Chase over 2m 5f
* Cheltenham has had just 3 renewals
* This is the only Listed or Graded race anywhere at this trip
* I would avoid horses having ran over 16f and 17f last time out.
* Novices are favoured and more so if coming from a Novice Chase
* All 3 winners came from a Novice or Beginners Chase
* I certainly wouldnt want to bet Handicap Chasers.
* All 3 winners came from Novice Chases at 21f or more
* I would want a horse that was 1-2-3-4 last time out
* The 3 winners were 2-W-2 last time out
* In all the Class 2 races at this trip anytime (14 races) all winners were 1-2-3-4 last time
* Pay Special Attention to horses that were 1st or 2nd last time out
* Since 1992 there have been 41 Novice Handicap Chases at Cheltenham before at this trip
* From these 41 winners 38 of these finished in the first 4 places on their latest start.
* 40 of the 41 winners started 1-2-3-4-5 last time out
* I think that any horse that ran more than 20 times over fences and hurdles should be opposed
* All 3 winners had 10st 11lbs or less and we have yet to see a high weight win
* All 3 winners of this race had between 3 and 6 races in the season they won this race.
* The 3 past winners had 3-5-6 previous races over fences and that range is acceptable
* All 3 winners so far were aged 7 but thats a weak trend
* The First 4 Home In 2007 were aged 7-6-7-8
* The First 4 Home In 2006 were aged 7-9-7-8
* The First 4 Home in 2005 were aged 7-6-10-8
* All 3 winners of this race had ran before in a Graded race over hurdles or fences
* Age Horses aged 9 or more wouldnt interest me


SHORTLIST

* Ridiculously hard race and a selection looks hopelessly ambitious
* I have applied my trends and have come up with a shortlist of 4
* GOLD MEDALLIST - MR STRACHAN - FINGER ONTHE PULSE - BARBERS SHOP


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CHELTENHAM 2:20 - SEASONS HOLIDAYS QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE GRADE 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m

11/4 Master Minded, Voy Por Ustedes, 4/1 Tamarinbleu, Twist Magic, 10/1 Fair Along, 16/1 Mansony, 25/1 Newmill, Schindlers Hunt, 500/1 Contraband

Selection - TWIST MAGIC Each Way

* The Champion Chase looks a 5 horse race but all 5 have problems
* Since 1989 only 1 winner had under 8 Chase starts (won 1999 with 4 runs)
* The Number of runs each past winners had over fences before is as follows
* 9-8-22-8-11-18-23-4-24-12-11-11-18-14-9-15-14-8.
* I would personally want a horse that has had at least 8 races over fences before.
* MASTER MINDED just scrapes through on 8 runs if you include his French form
* I can forgive him that as he is a serious looking horse
* What I find it hard to forgive is that no 5 year old has ever won
* He gets no allowance at all for being a 5 year old
* He also lacks Cheltenham experience
* He is clearly Top Class and will probably win this race in the future
* There must be a big question mark about whether this is a year too early
* TWIST MAGIC's issue is whether he will stay and get up the hill
* TWIST MAGIC fell at the second last when in contention in last years Arkle
* Neither that run or subsequent runs have proved his stamina
* Despite the 2m Trip this is a race for certain Stayers.
* From the last 18 winners 13 had previously won over as far as 2m 5f
* 16 of the 18 had won at Trips of further than 2 Miles.
* TWIST MAGIC has that against him
* TWIST MAGIC also has a lot of right handed flat track form
* TWIST MAGIC also fell on his only run here
* I dont see Mansony, Newmill as good enough
* VOY POR USTEDES won the race last year but it was a very poor renewal
* In his favour he tends to come good here having also won the 2006 Arkle
* Against him would be the fact his trainer hasnt been confident about his chance
* He looks held by Master Minded on his last run
* TAMARINBLEU runs here no doubt prompted by his win at Ascot
* Whilst stayers have won this race there has to be some doubt at 2m
* Especially when TAMARINBLEU has won at 3 miles already
* TAMARINBLEU has to show he can be effective over 2 miles
* FAIR ALONG was favourite for last years Arkle but didnt get the run of the race
* He has still placed at the last 2 festivals
* 18 of the Last 23 winners had been 1-2-3 at a Previous Festival.
* From the 5 that had not done so 2 of them has won at Cheltenham at other times.


CONCLUSION

SEECTION - TWIST MAGIC Each Way

You can debate these all day. You wont come to a resolution. You cant do as no 5 year old like Master Minded has won and you dont know how much stamina
TWIST MAGIC has. I take the view that I can pick fault with Every one of the market leaders and come out jumbled up. However with TWIST MAGIC I believe that he doesnt need to be the best stayer in the world to get placed anyway. His price is far bigger on form than it should be. At 5/1 Each Way you have a horse that was considerably shorter in the Ante Post markets. You have the ground drying out
in your favour. I feel he has already show on his day he is capable of beating VOY POR USTEDES and if he can just about stay he can beat a 3m winner in Tamrinbleu.
I feel that even if he doesnt get the trip there is a strong chance TWIST MAGIC will still place. If he does get the trip he should be 2/1 and not 5/1.

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CHELTENHAM 2:55 - RYANAIR CHASE (THE FESTIVAL TROPHY) GRADE 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m4f110y

3/1 Mossbank, 7/2 Our Vic, 4/1 The Listener, 15/2 L´Antartique, 8/1 Turko, 16/1 Racing Demon, 28/1 Billyvoddan, 33/1 Justified, 50/1 Knight Legend

* The Ryanair Chase is a new race
* I didnt like what very few trends there were in this race
* Looked at all similar races in early Spring and didnt see anything I liked
* One of the few good points about the race is that only 9 horses run
* We can also narrow that down by 3
* Billyvoddan - Justified -Knight Legend just dont look good enough
* I dont want RACING DEMON who failed in this race last year
* I also feel he had a better preparation last year
* OUR VIC is now a 10 year old and I am going to oppose him
* Second last year - Pulled up in 2006 he has yet to win at the Festival yet
* I have no strong arguments against any of these
* L'ANTARTIQUE is the only runner stepping up from 17f or shorter
* I dont like that much but it has been done before
* Gut feeling is TURKO may get caught out over these fences
* He hasnt always jumped this track well and may prefer Aintree
* He is a 6 year old - All other runners at 8 years and older
* I just feel conditions arent right to exploit his age
* MOSSBANK and THE LISTENER look serious runners
* I would just question THE LISTENER on this track at this trip
* Given all the issues I feel MOSSBANK Each Way is the best option
* Didnt have the angles to open it up any more
* MOSSBANK Each way at 7/2

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CHELTENHAM 3.15 - LADBROKES WORLD HURDLE GRADE 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 3m

11/10 Inglis Drever, 6/1 Blazing Bailey, 8/1 Kasbah Bliss, 10/1 Hardy Eustace, My Way De Solzen, Wichita Lineman, 14/1 Kazal, 20/1 Lough Derg, The Market Man, 25/1 Aitmatov, 33/1 Special Envoy, 50/1 Chief Dan George, Ebaziyan, Material World, 66/1 Flight Leader, 100/1 Sonnyanjoe, 500/1 Redemption.

* The World Hurdle looks to concern only 8 runners this year
* The really exposed horses struggle in this race.
* Horses with more than 20 previous races had a miserable 0-35 record.
* The Mighty Baracouda won this Race twice on his 15th + 18th Career starts.
* He was beaten in the race on his 22nd, 25th and 27th Career star
* HARDY EUSTACE - LOUGH DERG -MY WAY DE SOLZEN have that against them
* Horses aged 9 or more have a 0-61 record in this race since 1988
* The last Horse to win from this age group was back in 1988.
* HARDY EUSTACE fails that as an 11 year old and I am against him
* I certainly couldnt bet horses aged 10 or more.
* No Hurdler that age has won a Championship Hurdle race since 1986
* This race was too much for 2002-2003 Champion Baracouda when aged 9-10-11
* If he could not do it speaks volumes
* You want a Horse that was 1234 last time out- The last 20 winners did that
* 14 of the 15 winners since 1992 were 1st 2nd or 3rd.
* None of the fancied runners fail this trend
* The last 16 winners of this race had all ran in a Grade 1 race before.
* All 15 winners since 1991 had all achieved at least a 12345 placing in Grade 1 race
* All fancied runners have done that if you include Chases
* THE MARKET MAN has not if you exclude chases
* I want to oppose THE MARKET MAN because of this
* No Grade 1 hurdle race has ever been won by a horse coming from a chase before (0-45)
* INGLIS DREVER is a 9 year old and fails the age trends
* These trends show a 0-61 record for all horses aged 9 or more since 1988
* INGLIS DREVER has 20 career starts and is "On the cusp" of being too exposed
* Combined with his short price and inconsistent stableform he is no certainty
* That said he has defied stats before and put some remarkable performances
* I am looking for the best each way options against the defending champion
* THE MARKET MAN - LOUGH DERG- HARDY EUSTACE are already opposed
* I want to oppose 2006 winner MY WAY DE SOLZEN as well
* MY WAY DE SOLZEN is technically too exposed
* He also has to come from 2m 4f - The Fontwell Spirite Hurdle as he did in 2006
* He won 9 lengths at Fontwell in 2006 before winning this but lost in the same race this year
* MY WAY DE SOLZEN also now has blinkers and I dont see that as a good sign

CONCLUSION

On Handicap ratings INGLIS DREVER has 9lbs in hand of the field and is clearly the class horse - the defending champion - and the horse to beat. My objections to him are mainly down to his age and his price really. I dont feel his age will neccesarily stop him winning but I do feel that his price is short enough to demand that I should look for better priced alternatives.

* WICHITA LINEMAN is fine statistically and has been laid out for the race
* Slight worries would be he has cheekpieces and can appear a bit lazy at time
* BLAZING BAILEY and KASBAH BLISS were 3rd and 5th in this race last year
* Thats creditable as both were 5 year olds and no horse aged 5 has ever won this race
* BLAZING BAILEY is strong statistically and a possible each way alternative
* He does have a few lengths to find on form but no obvious flaws
* He has been beaten up by Inglis Drever every time they have met recently
* KASBAH BLISS also looks a solid option after being beaten last year as a 5 year old
* KAZAL has never been out of Ireland but clearly looks smart
* He has won 7 of his 9 hurdle starts and wont mind the ground
* I can see the argument for him - he isnt exposed or battle weary
* In the end I have come down with the Ground playing a major part in my selection
* Think Drying ground helps KASBAH BLISS
* I feel INGLIS DREVER will come second if he doesnt win
* I am betting 2 horses to beat him in forecasts
* Both horses that were 5 year olds in last years race
* In 2 seperate forecasts I hope one can slay the favourite
* Two small staked split stake bets advised
* KASBAH BLISS in a forecast to beat INGLIS DREVER
* BLAZING BAILEY in a forecast to beat INGLIS DREVER

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CHELTENHAM 4:05 - RACING POST PLATE (HANDICAP CHASE) GRADE 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m5f

7/2 Don´t Push It, 7/1 Bible Lord, 8/1 Gwanako, 10/1 Mighty Matters, Oedipe, 12/1 Crozan, 14/1 Il Duce, Patman Du Charmil, 16/1 Palarshan, Regal Heights, 20/1 Boychuk, Cossack Dancer, Fundamentalist, Lucifer Bleu, Tikram, 25/1 Big Rob, Black Hills, Chief Yeoman, Kelrev, Limited Edition, 33/1 Borora, Mister McGoldrick.

* Formerly known as the Mildmay of Flete - Handicap Chase over 2m 5f
* Weight might be an issue worth considering in this race
* Horses that carried 11st 5lbs or more have a 0-37 record in this race
* 12 of the last 13 winners had 11st or less and I would be worried about big weights
* REGAL HEIGHTS - DONT PUSH IT - IL DUCE - FUNDAMENTALIST have 11st 10lbs +
* 15 of the last 16 winners were placed 1-2-3-4 on their latest start.
* Several of these didnt run well enough last time for me including these -
* PALARSHAN - LIMITED EDITION - IL DUCE - CROZAN - CHIEF YEOMAN
* Horses aged 11 or more have won but I dont see that as likely
* TIKRAM and MISTER MCGOLDRICK are opposed
* I dont want horses aged 10 or more either like the following
* KELREV - COSSACK DANCER - FUNDAMENTALIST - PALARSHAN
* Horses that have ran just once or twice that season did not score well
* DONT PUSH IT fails that and with the high weight I would be worried
* CROZAN - LUCIFER BLEU - LIMITED EDITION also have that against them
* DONT PUSH IT has weight against him and one run this year
* He also has the fact he comes from a hurdles race - no past winner did that
* Also against him may be the 138 day absence
* 14 of the last 15 winners won with an absence of between only 16 and 47 days
* Several others fail that statistic as well
* REGAL HEIGHTS and MISTER MCGOLDRICK come from a terrible trial race
* Big Rob - Black Hills - Borora look outclassed
* The best record comes from Horses that came from a Class 2-3-4 race
* Horses that came from Class 2-3-4 Races won 13 renewals from 149 runners
* Horses that came from Listed or Graded races won 2 renewals from 92 runners
* None have won this race since 1995 so I am against the following horses
* Palarshan - Mister McGoldrick - Regal Heights - Il Duce
* Fundamentalist -Boychuk -Black Hills
* GWANKO is the only 5 year old in the race and has had just 2 chase starts
* The least experienced past winner was Majadou (1999) with 4 starts
* The last 7 years produced 28 horses that finished 1st 2nd 3rd or 4th.
* They had the following number of races over hurdles and fences
* 18 16 25 29 22 26 13 14 13 39 28 10 25 19 23 15 25 18 18 38 28 23 29 17 19 19 19 25
* GWANKO has had 8 hurdle races and 2 Chase races and thats a worry
* His trainer (P Nicholls) is 0-15 in this race and only 1 placed
* He has ran two horses aged 5 in this race in the last 2 years and both flopped badly
* Favourite DONT PUSH IT who I already rejected has just 10 runs
* BIBLE LORD has 9 runs but I can forgive him that
* OEDIPE has 5 runs and that has to be a concern
* OEDIPE has not ran in 443 days and is very hard to judge
* Young Spartacus (2003) had not raced in 14 months before winning this race.
* As he is from a top stable and lightly raced I wont make him a negative
* Its still a tough task for him in my view

SHORTLIST

I have 3 horses that felt had the best profiles

MIGHTY MATTERS 16/1
PATMAN DU CHARMIL 33/1
BIBLE LORD 7/1

I am going with a WIN Bet on MIGHTY MATTERS 16/1
and a saver on BIBLE LORD 7/1

MIGHTY MATTERS could have a fabulous advantage having won 6 days ago when jumping brilliantly. Track may be an issue - so would any rain and to be fair the trainer has little Cheltenham history but he gets the vote as he may just have that one big advantage and as I cant fault
him statistically and I have plenty of other negatives in the race he will do for me with the saver on Bible Lord.


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CHELTENHAM 4.40 - PERTEMPS FINAL (HANDICAP HURDLE) (LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m

6/1 Robin Du Bois, 7/1 Miko De Beauchene, 8/1 Backbord, 9/1 Onnix, 11/1 Dancing Tornado, Russian Trigger, 12/1 Footy Facts, 14/1 Ballyfitz, Gunner Jack, 16/1 Buena Vista, 20/1 Wild Cane Ridge, 22/1 Sir Overbury, 25/1 Artiste Bay, Counting House, Hennessy, Mobaasher, Prince De Bersy, 28/1 Dusky Warbler, Tighten Your Belt, 33/1 According To Pete, Lyes Green, Raslan, Temoin, 40/1 Glacial Sunset.

* One of the hardest handicaps of the week
* The Distance of this race Changed in 2005 from 3m 1f 110yds to 3 Miles
* Experienced horses with 21 + runs used to have a terrible record
* Then Kadoun 2006 (37 runs) and Creon 2004 (40 runs) bust that theory
* The last 16 winners of this race had the following levels of experience
* Number of All runs - 11 37 9 40 7 11 15 8 20 21 20 6 14 20 21 9
* There are only 2 horses that have over 21 career starts and I oppose both
* GLACIAL SUNSET is one and easy to oppose
* Second Favourite MIKO DE BEAUCHENE is the other
* MIKO DE BEAUCHENE is opposed for other reasons
* He is thrown in off 132 as his chase rating is 153
* However he peaked in December and won the Welsh National a gruelling race
* He then peaked again in Febuary and won the Red Square Vodka Chase
* Can he really peak for a third time here - and over hurdles ?
* I am taking the view that despite his handicap mark he will not do that
* I want to oppose the 5 year olds who havent won in 2 decades
* This includes favourite ROBIN DU BOIS
* I am against all the horses aged 10 or more - None won this race recently
* TIGHTEN YOUR BELT is added to the negatives list
* English horses with 5 or more runs that season have a 1-142 record
* It doesnt smack of the correct preparation
* RASLAN - MOBAASHER - LYES GREEN - HENNESSY fail that
* DUSKY WARBLER - PRINCE DE BERSEY also fail that
* English horses with 1-2 runs that season have a 1-58 record
* BUENA VISTA - RUSSIAN TIGER - GUNNER JACK fail that
* GUNNER JACK also came second last time out and that worries me
* Horses that came second are usually not well handicapped enough or not laid out
* GUNNER JACK with 4 hurdle races would be the least experienced past winner
* The least experienced hurdler had 5 runs (1995 Winner Miracle Man)
* RUSSIAN TRIGGER also has only 4 hurdle starts
* I would want a Horse that has won in their last half dozen races.
* Those that did not had a 1-108 record and I oppose these
* I dont fancy WILD CANE RIDGE on pedigree much as he is fine statistically
* Several winners were bred by Classiclly bred Flat sires
* Horses with between 6 and 20 runs have won many recent renewals
* 12 of the last 16 winners had ran in fewer than 9 handicaps.
* The Winners in 2005, 2003, 2002, 1998, 1995 and 1991 ran in Just 2 previous Handicaps.
* Strongly consider runners that had 2-8 previous handicap hurdle runs
* Strongly consider any runner that had just 2 previous handicap hurdle runs.
* I have the following 5 runners left and all make my shortlist

BACKBORD
ONNIX
DANCING TORNADO
FOOTY FACTS
BALLYFITZ

In terms of a selection perhaps DANCING TORNADO seems so obvious but drying ground could be an issue as could stamina. BACKBORD flies through statistically
but 2 wins and weight rises leave me a bit cold. I would prefer these 3


ONNIX - FOOTY FACTS - BALLYFITZ

I will be gutted if BALLYFITZ wins but I wont pick 3 bets
so I have come down on a split staked bet on Irish and French horses ONNIX and FOOTY FACTS

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CHELTENHAM 5.15 - KIM MUIR HANDICAP CHASE (AMATEUR RIDERS) (CLASS 2) (5yo+,0-140) 3m1f110y

13/2 My Immortal, 8/1 Ma Yahab, Noir Et Vert, 9/1 Officier De Reserve, 11/1 Newbay Prop, Openide, 12/1 Whispered Secret, 14/1 Burntoakboy, High Chimes, 16/1 Bob Bob Bobbin, Idle Talk, Jaunty Times, Joes Edge, 20/1 Ardaghey, Back To Bid, Nykel, Royal Man, 22/1 Beat The Boys, 25/1 Innox, 28/1 Oscar India, 33/1 Run For Paddy, Undeniable, 50/1 St Matthew, 100/1 Celtic Son.

* The Kim Muir is a 25f Handicap Chase for Amateurs
* English horses have dominated and have won the last 24 renewals of this race.
* N. Henderson (3 wins) M.Pipe (2 wins) Ferdy Murphy (2 wins) R Alner (2 wins)
* This is one of the least predictable races of the festival.
* Stay with Horses aged 7-8-9-10 who have won the last 15 renewals
* Older horses aged 11 or more they have a combined record of 0-56
* JOES EDGE - RUN FOR PADDY - INNOX look too old all aged 11 or more
* Horses aged 6 in the race (0-14) are unproven
* Its asking a lot for a 6 year old to carry topweight so OFFICIER DE RESERVE is out
* The favourite MY IMMORTAL is the other 6 year old
* I would oppose horses with 21 + runs that had under 4 runs that season
* These types have a 0-31 record
* BOB BOB BOBBIN - CELTIC SON - INNOX - JAUNTY TIMES fail that
* JOES EDGE - RUN FOR PADDY - ST MATTHEW - WHISPERED SECRET fail that
* I would be looking for a horse that had their last race over 2m7f or more.
* Horses that ran over 2m 6f or shorter last time out have a poor 1-61 record.
* BACK TO BID - CELTIC SON - OFFICIER DE RESERVE fail that
* So to do WHISPERED SECRET and ST MATTHEW
* All 36 horses that ran in this race that did not come from a Handicap Lost.
* BACK TO BID - BEAT THE BOYS - CELTIC SON - INNOX fail that
* MA YAHAB the second favourite also fails that coming from a Novice Chase
* All 33 horses that came from a Novice race lost
* Many "Lightweights" and "Highweights" have won
* Horses with 11st 8lbs or more have a Poor record (after allowances taken off)
* OFFICIER DE RESERVE - IDLE TALK - JOES EDGE fail that
* No horse aged 10 or more had under 4 runs that season
* JOES EDGE -RUN FOR PADDY - INNOX fail that
* All 43 horses that came from a Class 3 handicap chase lost
* JAUNTY TIMES and WHISPERED SECRET have that to overcome
* I looked at all Horses that came from Class 2 or Class 3 handicap chases l
* Horses that placed or won last time out in a C2/C3 Handicap chase had a 1-72 record
* They also had a poor record in the William Hill Trophy earlier in the week
* The 1-72 record of horses placed in Class 2/3 handicaps includes 4 beaten favourites
* This suggests to me they struggle to take the step up in class
* WHISPERED SECRET - NYKEL - NEWBAY PROP -MY IMMORTAL fail that
* Horses aged 7 won last year but won only 2 others in the last 28 years
* All 3 winners aged 7 ran in the last 31 days
* All 3 winners aged 7 carried under 11st
* ROYAL MAN and NOIR ET VERT fail both those angles
* Course winners have a weak 1-69 record in 15 years
* ARDAGHEY - JOES EDGE - RUN FOR PADDY - WHISPERED SECRET fail that
* INNOX - OPENIDE - BURNTOAKBOY also fail that
* Exposed horses that were 1-2-3-4 last time out score badly
* They have a poor 1-54 record and the following fail that
* Whispered Secret - Jaunty Times -Back To Bid -Innox
* Run For Paddy- St Matthew -Celtic Son.


SHORTLIST

The 1 horses I felt came out best was HIGH CHIMES 16/1

* Oscar India (40/1) and Undeniable (66/1) came out well
* I just didnt feel either would win - Maybe the price put me off
* Might be a Mug for doing that


* HIGH CHIMES has to be the selection e/w

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CHELTENHAM 5:20 - WEATHERBYS CHAMPION BUMPER (NATIONAL HUNT FLAT) GRADE 1 (4-6yo) 2m110y

4/1 Zaarito, 9/2 Apt Approach, 9/1 Big Eared Fran, Cousin Vinny, 10/1 Corskeagh Royale, Lilywhitedancer, 14/1 Gold Award, 20/1 Cockleshell Road, Keki Buku, Mahonia, 25/1 Cottage Oak, Drive On Regardles, Genuine Pearl, Prince Geeno, 33/1 Kingston Lane, 40/1 Pineau De Re, 50/1
Quartetto, 66/1 Cockney Trucker, Lord Generous, 100/1 Corkage, Rockiteer, Shoreacres, Timisvar, Youngstown.

* The Champion Bumper usually falls to Ireland
* They lead 12-3 in the last 15 years and have won the last 4 renewals
* Willie Mullins in particular has won this in 1996, 1997, 1998, 2000 and 2005.
* I am against all English trained 6 year olds who have a 0-64 record to date
* Kingston Lane fails that
* All 3 English winners were Male horses aged 4 or 5 and came from a Grade 1 track last time out.
* Cockney Rebel - Keki Buku - Kingston Lane - Prince Geeno fail that
* Rockiteer -Shoreacres -Youngstown also fail that
* Horses that won last time out have dominated this race.
* They have won the last 3 renewals and have been responsible for 13 of the last 15 winners.
* This adds no new negatives to the race
* Horses aged 4 have the weakest strike rate (2-75 in the last 15 years)
* Given there are only two I am against both
* This takes out Lord Generous and Quartetto
* All 25 horses that had previously ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 Bumper lost in this race.
* The horses that have won have been ones that have been trained to peak on this one day.
* Not the horses already tested against the best of their peers often resulting in a hard race.
* CORSKEAGH ROYALE - SHOREACRES fail that
* Big Field Form looks quite important.
* The last 10 winners had won in fields of the following
* 16-24 -15 - 27 - 28 - 24 - 17 -19 -20 -22 - 17 runners.
* COTTAGE OAK - GOLD AWARD -SHOREACRES have not
* The last 5 winners of this race had 3-4-3-3-4 previous races
* Its not a great stat but I prefer horses with more than 1 race on this ground
* This takes out several more
* I am taking out the French Breds like Pineau De Re
* I am left with a shortlist of 7 and 3 are rank outsiders
* The statistically fine outsiders are Genuine Pearl - Corkage -Timisvar
* The shorter priced horses that pass my stats are these
* Zaarito - Apt Approach - Mahonia - Drive On Regardles
* Zaarito - Apt Approach are the only ones under 40/1
* ZAARITO Each Way surely ?

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Guy Ward

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
 

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