CHELTENHAM 4.50

 

4/1 Jury Duty, 6/1 Mossback, No Comment,
7/1 Ms Parfois, Rathvinden, 9/1 Keeper Hill,
10/1 Sizing Tennessee, 16/1 Pylonthepressure,
20/1 Duel At Dawn, Reigning Supreme, 25/1 Impulsive Star,
33/1 Clondaw Cian, Shades Of Midnight,
100/1 All Kings, Lofgren, Robin Of Locksley.

 

4m Novice Chase for Amateur Riders

 

Past winners had this many chase runs
10 4 3 5 9 11 3 3 7 4 4 4 4 12 5
No horse has won with under 3 Chase runs

 

NO COMMENT only has 1 chase run
He only has 1 run this season as well
I can not live with that profile
PYLONTHEPRESSURE has 2 Chase runs
He is underaced and a doubtful stayer
REIGNING SUPREME is also underraced
IMPULSIVE STAR is short on experience

 

Last time out Racing Post Ratings

 

156 Jury Duty
151 Mossback
148 Ms Parfois
145 Duel At Dawn
145 Sizing Tennessee
144 Shades Of Midnight
143 Keeper Hill
139 Pylonthepressure
137 No Comment
136 Reigning Supreme
135 Impulsive Star
0 Rathvinden

 

JURY DUTY has a clear edge here
His last 3 numbers 156 157 157
He has Grade 1 form
He has placed at a previous festival
Has enough runs this season
His profile is fine
He should be hard to kick out of the frame

 

MOSSBANK is a 6yo
Only 2 horses aged 6 have won since 1989
They are only 2-54 in the last 20 renewals
But certain types of 6 year olds are fine
And I don't have a big problem with him
MOSSBANK could be a threat
On last time out Racing Post Ratings
He has the second best numbers
Respected even if  Jury Duty is safer
He is older and has more experience

 

KEEPER HILL doesn't look good enough
His sire rarely gets long distant winners
None in Class 2 or higher won over 3m 2f +
All 36 that tried have been beaten

 

DUEL AT DAWN is a bit inexperienced
Past winners had these National Hunt runs
24 6 28 13 6 13 23 25 5 13 13 15 15 22 28 26 16 14
Only 2 of the last 18 winners had under 12 runs
DUEL AT DAWN only has 9 runs
Needs to improve a lot to win this

 

MS PARFOIS is a flat bred Mare
Hardly the perfect type for this race
I have my doubts about stamina
His sires runners in Class 3 or higher
Have yet to win past 3m 1f
None on soft or heavy have won past 3m 1f
Too many doubts given the above

 

SIZING TENNESSEE is a 10yo
The last his age to win was in 2002
He is a huge horse who jumps well
And he has some big numbers as well
But he may be vulnerable to improvers
And his sire's never had a winner over this far
In Class 2 or higher none have won past 3m 2f

 

RATHVINDEN has a shaky preparation
Comes here Brought Down and then unseated
He is also a 10 year old
Since 2003 horses aged 10 + are 0-12 in this race
He does have some big numbers though
So he must be a danger if at his best
This interests me about his chance

 

RATHVINDEN raced in October
It was his seasonal debut
He had a Racing Post Chase rating of 159

 

That seems a very smart figure for October
In contrast look at the winners of this race
The ratings they earnt on the day they won
155 160 151 138 155 151 153 145 150 140
RATHVINDEN 's rating of 159 in October
Is good enough to win all bar 1 of the renewals

 

He then went and repeated it next time out
He had pre Christmas numbers of 159 159
He had no chance when brought down next time
We could forgive him unseating rider last time
It was a Grade 1 against better horses
If he turns up and repeats his previous runs
You would have to argue he has every chance

 

There a few horses who could take this
If they run close to or above their best
Three of these stand out over the others
And prices allow us to bet all 3 of them

 

MOSSBANK
JURY DUTY
RATHVINDEN

 

Selection

 

£7.00 Win Bet RATHVINDEN 6/1 WON

 

£1.50 Win Bet JURY DUTY 6/1

 

£1.50 Win Bet MOSSBANK 6/1