Betting Strategy

The aim of this book is to provide to you the cold hard historical facts about horse racing trainers.

This is not the time nor the place for a full on discussion on the wide ranging topic of betting strategy.

That said, I thought it may be useful to briefly highlight a few thoughts in the hope that it may aid you in taking the information in this book and turning it into betting profit.

All the facts and figures I have provided for you here, I can assure you put you in the bracket of the most knowledgeable in the country when it comes to trainer records.

The facts however are simply a tool.

How you use this tool is ultimately up to yourself.

Below however I have split bettors into various camps with a few words as to how I envisage the information in this report being brought into real life betting.


The Form Analyst - The aim of the form analyst is to look at each individual race and try and try and find the value bet if one exists. Trainer profiles are simply one aspect of the total information to be taken into account. With this report however, I do feel that any form analyst will have a much better source of information when it comes to assess the impact of the trainer in their calculations. Check the race type and the time of year for strong positive or negative pointers and adjust your calculated true odds accordingly.

This is the camp I myself fall into on the whole. The trainer stats are simply one part of the overall picture when I analyse a race.


The Systems Man - One of the downsides of a form analyist approach is the workload involved ( hence the popularity of my members email service where members get a lot of the donkey work done for them..by my good self)

Many prefer to take a simpler more systematic approach. One a system has been defined and researched, daily bets can be pinpointed quite quickly.
There is no emotional agonising over whether to have a bet or not. If the system tells you it is a bet , it is a bet simple as that.

This document I see as a core base for development of systems based around trainer profiles.
At your disposal you have very strong pointers for profitable directions to examine for your self in greater detail.

Some suggestions may be put your self together a hot list of trainers to bet under certain conditions, whether it be race type , time of year or a combination of both.
With the rules defined , daily selection becomes mechanical.


The comments above apply equally truly whether you are a backer of horses or a layer of horses on the betting exchanges.

Bookmaker / Betfair Trader .. both these camps are generally highly numerically based. They are seeking arbitrage situations or to create "a book" with value on their side. At first glance you may feel an arber for example would place no real value on form assessment, however they do have the ability to shift the profit on any trade from the "If the horse wins" to the "If the horse loses" side of the bet.

The most successful traders and bookmakers will be those who know when to have a horse on their side and when to be opposing it. This document will help them make those decisions more accurately.


Betting Absolute Fundamental

I will finish this document with a reminder of one of the most fundamental principles of successful betting.

That being that you never just bet a horse, you bet a horse at a price.

Sadly, the vast majority of bettors never grasp the importance of this.

Putting a bit of effort in to secure top possible prices is often the separator of the long term winners and the perpetual losers.

The recently introduced price checking section on my web site is a significant aid in price hunting.
http://mathematician-betting.co.uk/odds

Remember to think long term and have the discipline to walk away from a likely winner on the day if the value is not there.

And Finally...

If this book has stimulated questions or ideas I urge you to come into the website member forums and share them.

The forum membership is made up of betters of wide ranging abilities and specialities.

What ever your own ability you are welcome to come join in, ask questions or answer them as appropriate.

Good Luck

Guy Ward

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk