No Full Bet Today
1 Options
18 Races Discussed
T o d a y' s B e t
Aintree 3.05
WISHFULL THINKING 11/2
Each Way
I was very tempted to side with Cascading in
the 1.15pm at Newbury each way around 4/1
but a very late change of mind means I have
now gone with Wishfull Thinking. Lots to say
today. Interesting message all the way to the
end. I think it deserves a winner but whether
we get one or not is another matter of course.
Statistically Significant Races
Newbury 1.15
CASCADING 4/1 Each Way
Maiden so have to guess but having ruled out a
few with a 0-254 statistic I felt there was a case
for betting this horse each way. These races do
have known unknowns but seemed worth a bet.
Newbury 1.45
CAY DANCER 5/1 Each Way
YEAH BABY 6/1 Saver Bet
This looks very significant. Maiden Race. There
are four horses failing a 0-254 statistic and that
includes the favourite and a gamble as well. It
will be painful if one of those wins. I still had 5
potential winners even after all that so you can
see how open it is. I threw in some sire stats as
well to try and reduce the shortlist. I managed
to get it down to 2 and that did not include the
Roger Charlton trained Lady Tyne just the sort
to spoil a bet when you don't bet her. I'm going
for CAY DANCER each way with YEAH BABY a
saver. I 'd love to see my statistics work here.
Stratford 2.10
LOYAUTE 9/1 Win Bet
DREAMBROOK LADY 9/1 Win Bet
I love my angles in this race but I also have to
be cautious as there is a small sample size of
mares races like this. We're also dealing with
seasonal debutants. Bottom line is we do not
know if we have fit horses. I loved LOYAUTE
on paper but a small trainer and no idea the
level of fitness she has. DREAMBROOK LADY
is drafted in to shore up the staking but much
as the angles look and smell good it is risky.
Aintree 3.05
WISHFULL THINKING 11/2
Each Way
Maybe this is more statistically interesting than
significant as the past renewals are messy. It's
a race I do like. I was going to with a saver on
WALKON and win bet on WISHFULL THINKING.
It worried me that ASTRACAD could spoil that
bet. I don't really like him enough but there is
an argument he is the fittest horse in the race
and it will look oh so obvious after the race if
he wins. So I abandoned any saver options to
side with WISHFULL THINKING 11/2 each way.
M e s s a g e C h a n g e s
The clocks go back tomorrow so it's a chance to
play around with the message and freshen it up
a bit. I will be making some alterations as usual
as one season ends and another begins. One of
my changes will be a new extra daily paragraph.
I am calling this SIRES AND SYSTEMS. It should
be a short daily report looking at certain systems
that I can find that day and some opinions about
sire records. There may be the odd day where I
don't have much but there should be something
interesting most days. I'll trial it for a few weeks
and see how it goes down. This starts tomorrow.
T o d a y 's M e s s a g e
Time to buckle up as it is a long one today and
I have covered 16 races. I've deliberately left a
few short and unfinished. It's probably too long
but I found a lot I Liked. There is no sense in you
following this message through on a Saturday
as the racing is just too competitive. My idea
of the better bets are given in Todays Options.
This time of year there are Trust issues. There
is every reason to lose trust on the Flat at this
time of year. Trust in the National hunt grows
all the time but you still can't trust it quite yet.
****************************************************
****************************************************
P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W
N e w b u r y 1.15
3/1 Cameo Tiara, 5/1 Cinnilla, 11/2 Cascading
8/1 Crystal Nymph, 8/1 Dogaressa, 10/1 Wylye
12/1 Cradle Of Life, 12/1 Good Hope, 14/1 Secret Suspect
25/1 Step Away, 33/1 Isabella Liberty.
* This is a 2yo maiden for fillies over a Mile
* I want to start with a fascinating statistic
* October-November-December have 122 similar races
* I looked at horses beaten 10 + lengths last time
* There was a 5-365 record with these horses
* Look at those running within 31 days
* The record was 0-254 an amazing record
* The following horses fail this 0- 0-254 statistic
* GOOD HOPE - CRADLE OF LIFE - SECRET SUSPECT
* It's not much help sadly but interesting all the same
* CRYSTAL NYMPH doesn't appeal much
* Not after 3 races all in Auction races
* WYLYE may just need the run
Shortlist
Cameo Tiara - Cascading -Dogaressa - Cinnilla
* CINNILLA - DOGARESSA are unraced
* Both fair chances but the other 2 have run
* All 3 past renewals had 1 run which is a small clue
* CASCADING looks the solid each way option
* His trainer has won this race before
Selection
CASCADING 4/1
Each Way
N e w b u r y 1.45
7/2 Cay Dancer, 9/2 Royal Connection, 11/2 Yeah Baby
15/2 Female Strategy, 8/1 Sea Goddess, 17/2 Tioga Pass
9/1 Acclio, 10/1 Super Moment, 12/1 Lady Tyne
12/1 What A Scorcher, 20/1 Modern Art, 33/1 Olymnia.
* This is a 2yo maiden for fillies over a Mile
* In the earlier division I gave a strong statistic
* October-November-December have 122 similar races
* I looked at horses beaten 10 + lengths last time
* There was a 5-365 record with these horses
* Look at those running within 31 days
* The record was 0-254 an amazing record
* The following horses fail this 0-254 statistic
* SUPER MOMENT - MODERN ART
* TIOGA PASS - SEA GODDESS
* This statistic will be tested today
* SEA GODDESS is favourite so I will oppose her
* There was one doubt I had about opposing her
* She does fail that 0-254 statistic
* If she ran into a Group 1 horse last time
* Then her heavy defeat was more understandable
* The horse that beat her 13 lengths last time is Snow Sky
* That horse runs in a Group 1 race today
* SEA GODDESS's defeat becomes more forgivable
* I still have to oppose her though
* OLYMNIA doesn't offer enough with a break
* WHAT A SCORCHER - Not for me first time out
* FEMALE STRATEGY - Unraced . May need run
Possibles
* ROYAL CONNECTION is exposed with 8 runs
* I looked at horses with 7 + runs in these races
* Horses with 7 + runs starting under 40/1 were 2-5
* They finished W 5 3 W 2
* Neither winner came from a mile like her
* Neither came from an Auction Maiden
* ROYAL CONNECTION - Not quite right
* She will like the ground. I see her as neutral
* I looked at all Bahamian Bounty 2yo's on soft and heavy
* When running over 7f or more they were 0-19
* ROYAL CONNECTION may lack stamina
* ACCLIO has 2 runs from a 7f maiden within a fortnight
* I found 2 similar winners
* ACCLIO is a positive but has to prove soft suits
* ACCLIO's stamina bothers me
* I looked at all Acclamation 2yo's on soft and heavy
* Just 1-27 at 7f + and 0-8 at a mile or more
Shortlist
* LADY TYNE - Backward type not ruled out
* I don't really like relying on this stable
* I looked at his 8f maiden record in Oct-Nov
* 1 run absent a month his runners are 3-9
* She is just the type to win unbacked a spoil a bet
* YEAH BABY doesn't set a high standard
* I looked at horses from 7f with 3 or more runs
* There was a modest 2-46 record
* Both horses ran better than her last time
* She may have been handicapped last time
* This trip will suit better and she's a player
* CAY DANCER has had 3 runs
* I looked at horses from 7f maidens over a month ago
* Those with 3 runs had a 0-3 record
* Only 3 tried and they finished 2nd 2nd 4th
* CAY DANCER has to be seen as a positive
* She has to prove she handles soft as well
Negative -SEA GODDESS
Positive but stamina worry - ACCLIO
Positive but stamina worry - ROYAL CONNECTION
Selection
CAY DANCER 5/1 Each Way
YEAH BABY 6/1 Saver Bet
Chepstow 1.50
8/11 Kaki De La Pree, 3/1 Doing Fine
6/1 Closing Ceremony, 14/1 Midnight Mustang
25/1 Blazing Bouncer, 25/1 Hurricane Ivan
25/1 You Too Pet, 33/1 Ask The Boss.
Normally I'd have a strong view in a 2m maiden hurdle
at Chepstow but I'm ducking this one. My statistics say
that KAKI DE LA PREE has the best profile because of
the main dangers coming from either maiden or recent
bumpers but they also tell me KAKI DE LA PREE doesn't
have the profile you want for an odds on shot. I thought
it was silly to bet him at odds on when Nicky Henderson
sold him after just 1 race for a modest £13k. DOING FINE
has only an average profile but he could the each way
bet in the race assuming 8 run. I am not tempted here.
Doncaster 2.05
9/4 Stubbs, 11/4 Night Of Thunder, 7/2 Aeolus
6/1 Brave Boy, 6/1 Rufford, 16/1 Deeds Not Words.
I don't have a strong view in this 2yo Listed race.
NIGHT OF THUNDER and STUBBS fail my angles.
I do like STUBBS but 130 days is a long time off.
I can find a mare absent 108 days with 2 runs in
similar races. STUBBS with 4 runs isn't safe and
that disappoints me as I like him and think he is
the best horse in the race. NIGHT OF THUNDER
comes from an Auction Maiden and no winners
did that. My statistics suggest opposing both or
these. My heart says STUBBS my angles say No.
On profiles I would suggest RUFFORD as worth
a saver but the safest profile belongs to AEOLUS.
* Statistically weak - NIGHT OF THUNDER
* Statistically weak - STUBBS
* Best Profile - AEOLUS
* Selection - None
S t r a t f o r d 2.10
9/4 Rosie Probert, 5/1 Mini Muck, 5/1 Top Totti
8/1 Golden Gael, 8/1 Phase Shift, 10/1 Dreambrook Lady
14/1 Loyaute, 16/1 Definitely Glad, 20/1 Faith Jicaro
20/1 Flying Phoenix, 25/1 Lindsay´s Dream.
* This is a Mares Handicap Hurdle
* Not enough similar races to get a confident view
* In October-November there are 17 of these races
* Thats 17 Mares Handicaps short of 2m 2f
* Look at the record of 4 year olds. All 31 that ran lost
* That 0-31 record puts me off ROSIE PROBERT
* Never Underestimate Nicky Henderson of course
* The cold fact is all 31 horses aged 4 lost
* MINI MUCK only has 2 hurdle runs
* The 17 winners had the following hurdle starts
* 7 5 6 17 11 7 6 5 3 7 10 8 39 15 10 10 15
* Horses with 2 hurdle runs like MINI MUCK are 0-12
* Horses with 1-2-3-4 hurdle runs are just 1-35
* MINI MUCK could be a bit inexperienced
* DEFINITELY GLAD only has 3 hurdle starts
Then you sort of run into difficulty having to speculate
more. Like whether GOLDEN GAEL is safe with 4 races
and a huge absence or whether TOP TOTTI is safe as a
5yo from a Novice Hurdle. The ideal profile for a mare
racing first time out is aged 5 or 6 with under 9 hurdle
runs. DREAMBROOK LADY doesn't fit that profile but I
wouldn't rule her out with backclass. FAITH JICARO is
respected if only because she is fitter than most here.
* LOYAUTE has an interesting profile
* Horses aged 5 or 6
* Absent over 5 months
* Coming from a Handicap
* Starting under 25/1
* Under 9 hurdle starts
* 4 horses ran with this profile in similar races
* They finished W 2 2 W
* The winners were Sovietica and Long Shot
LOYAUTE wont be anything special and we don't
know how fit she is but she has run in some good
quality races and she wasn't staying over longer
when last seen. An educated guess no more but
easily the best profile I can find in this handicap.
Selection
LOYAUTE 9/1 Win Bet
DREAMBROOK LADY 9/1 Win Bet
N e w b u r y 2.20
9/4 Galiway, 4/1 Piping Rock, 7/1 Morning Post
7/1 Trading Profit, 8/1 Day Of Conquest
10/1 Anticipated, 14/1 Invincible Strike, 14/1 Lyn Valley
16/1 Extra Noble, 20/1 Cordite, 33/1 Kickboxer.
The Horris Hill is a 2yo Group race over 7f for
Colts and Geldings. Usually a messy race and
this year no different as the Middle Park was
mover later in the season. In the long history
of this race only 3 of 22 winners came from a
6f race. These rare winners had 4 6 10 races
and all of these ran within the past 3 weeks.
* The following horses from 6f are unsafe
* INVINCIBLE STRIKE - KICKBOXER - LYN VALLEY
* ANTICIPATED is a bit harder to rule out
* MORNING POST is also a bit harder
* Neither appealed as the correct profiles
* Neither achieved as much as other winners from 6f
* EXTRA NOBLE - No winners came from 8f Nurseries
* CORDITE took 3 runs to win a maiden so is out
* DAY OF CONQUEST - No winners from 8f Conditions races
Shortlist
* PIPING ROCK comes from a 7f conditions race
* Several winners did that but none with 2 career starts
* All 6 lost but 3 did finish placed
* GALIWAY - demands great respect from France
* It's been 15 years since a once raced horse won it
* TRADING PROFIT - Has a profile like the 2001 winner
Selection
Hard to split these. The French Raider Galiway will
probably win but one previous run is a bit short and
so is his price. I don't like doing this but it just seems
that PIPING ROCK 7/2 each way is the better option.
PIPING ROCK 7/2
Each Way
Chepstow 2.25
10/11 Just A Par, 5/1 Shotgun Paddy
6/1 Arthurian Legend, 6/1 Rev It Up
7/1 Boyfromnowhere.
No Bet. Just Background information.
Not getting involved in this Novice Chase. I looked
at horses like JUST A PAR from Grade 1 Novice as
5 year olds. Basically there were 14 that tried with
his profile and 5 won. Thats very good but is it that
good for an odds chance ? What I also noticed is
that these 5 winners all had 4 past hurdling starts
and JUST A PAR has just 3. Probably not too big
an issue. SHOTGUN PADDY's profile from a Grade
2 Novice last year was 1 winner from 2 that tried.
JUST PAR will probably win but on profiles there
is no good reason why he should be this short so
you could argue he is poor value and opposable.
Aintree 2.30
3/1 Fruity O´rooney, 4/1 Jamsie Hall
5/1 Hey Big Spender, 5/1 Pigeon Island, 5/1 Your Busy
7/1 Triggerman, 12/1 Categorical.
I just don't have enough similar races to consider
doing much in this Veterans Chase. The reason it
gets a mention is the favourite FRUITY O´ROONEY.
I don't think he is safe going from 18f to 24f with 1
run this season as this statistic hopefully will show.
* Handicap Chases in October over 2m 7f or more
* Horses aged 9 or more
* Coming from 2m 4f or shorter
* Running within 50 days
* Having 1 run this season
* Horses with this profile were 0-33
* FRUITY O´ROONEY fails this
Now this is not a normal Handicap Chase as it is
for horses aged 10 or more so the above statistic
may not be that relevant. Thats why I would not
lay him with a small field and several without a
run but I don't fancy him to win this from 18f.
D o n c a s t e r 2.40
4/1 Thomas Hobson, 5/1 Ennistown, Nicholascopernicus
6/1 Van Percy, 8/1 Centred, 10/1 Voodoo Prince
12/1 Kashmir Peak, 16/1 Highland Castle, 16/1 Itlaaq
16/1 Rio´s Rosanna, 25/1 O Ma Lad 33/1 Warlu Way.
This is a Class 2 handicap over 12f. Lots of annoying
issues for me like the fact 13 of the past renewals of
this race were lower grade. I noticed these things.
* 82 similar 12f handicaps in Class 2 and Class 3
* Horses aged 6 or more have a poor 3-131 record
* WARLU WAY - RIO´S ROSANNA - ITLAAQ are out
* Look at Handicaps here with 11 or more runners
* There are 19 races since 2010
* Horses drawn 1-2-3 have a 0-53 record
* THOMAS HOBSON is not well drawn in Stall 2
* He's 3 and won a 12f 3yo handicap last time
* Horses with this profile running within 3 weeks are 2-7
* They had 2 and 5 runs and he has 7 runs
* Not sure that's good enough to ignore that draw
* ENNISTOWN may have the worst draw in Stall 1
* He's 3 and won a 10f handicap last time
* Complicated profile. There are 5 similar winners
* Two were far lighter raced. Two were far more exposed
* I can find a winner like him. One thing bothers me
* Look at the 5 winners and their official ratings
* They won off marks of 84 88 85 90 96
* ENNISTOWN has to do this with a rating of 100
* Given that and the Draw I wasn't convinced
* CENTRED has a weak draw in Stall 3
* I looked at 3yo's down from 14f races like her
* There were 6 winners but none were fillies like her
* She only has 4 runs this year and 1 run in 116 days
* Not for me given all that and Stall 3
* NICHOLASCOPERNICUS - I don't fancy him
* He has raced just once since May
* Look at horses aged 4 + with 1 run in the last 3 months
* There was a 1-87 record and I doubt his fitness
* O MA LAD has a weak profile
Possibles
* KASHMIR PEAK - Only 3 runs this season
* For a 4 year old that's a bit short
* HIGHLAND CASTLE is 5 absent 69 days
* Horses aged 5 absent 6 weeks or more were 0-33
* It's not a safe profile but I can live with it
* Not many were fancied in that 0-33 record
* We have had a 6yo win this with a bigger absence
* 25/1 is too big if anyone wants a small nibble
* The ground will probably beat him though
* VOODOO PRINCE is 5 and comes up in trip
* There were 3 winners with this profile
* These 3 winners had 35 25 23 career starts
* VOODOO PRINCE with 16 is a bit short of that
* These 3 were absent 25 16 14 days
* VOODOO PRINCE has 35 days off the track
* All 3 winners had more runs that year as well
* VOODOO PRINCE isn't quite like similar winners
* I'd give him an each way chance
* VAN PERCY is 3 and has 11 career starts
* I looked at 3yo males from recent 12f handicaps
* I found 1 winner like him in a 1-11 record
* I just felt he was the most sensible selection
Selection
VAN PERCY 13/2
Win Bet
N e w b u r y 2.55
3/1 Prince Bishop, 7/2 Nichols Canyon
7/2 Quiz Mistress, 7/1 Masterstroke, 7/1 Sugar Boy
o8/1 Cubanita, 12/1 Model Pupil, 16/1 Cocktail Queen.
* The St Simon Stakes is a Group 3 race over 12f
* Horses that dropped in trip from 14f or more are weak
* That's unless they come from the St Leger
* MODEL PUPIL has a weak profile aged 4 from 2m
* NICHOLS CANYON comes from a 14f race
* Not an orthodox profile and not like any winners
* COCKTAIL QUEEN has been off too long
* CUBANITA - No 4yo filly has won this race yet
* MASTERSTROKE - Two disappointing runs this year
* QUIZ MISTRESS - 2 winners were exposed like her
* None of them were fillies though
* Her sire hasn't bred a British Group race winner yet
* QUIZ MISTRESS would be the first if she won
* PRINCE BISHOP has the ability to win
* Only one thing worries me about his profile
* He is an exposed 6yo with just 1 run since March
* SUGAR BOY is not unlike the 2004 winner
Selection
No idea. No interest.
May have underestimated MASTERSTROKE
Least worst profile is SUGAR BOY
This pair against the field but it's a guess
A i n t r e e 3.05
4/1 Walkon, 5/1 Wishfull Thinking, 6/1 Conquisto
6/1 Edgardo Sol, 7/1 Astracad, 10/1 Oiseau De Nuit
10/1 Saint Are, 12/1 Mr Moonshine, 14/1 Carrickboy
14/1 Viva Colonia, 20/1 Pure Faith.
* The Old Roan Chase is a Grade 2 Handicap Chase
* There are 9 past renewals of this race
This wouldn't be the safest handicap chase for any
trends as we had a Triple winner (Monet's Garden)
who broke some angles and Kauto Star also won it
and he was hardly the typical chaser. KAUTO STAR
was the only 6 year old winner and an exception to
any rule. I'd prefer an older horse here and I wasn't
keen on EDGARDO SOL. He may be 2-2 on this track
but not over 2m 4f and I'm not sure he will stay first
time out. I opposed him many times in 2012 mainly
because he is only a small horse. I wouldnt want a
small 6yo at Aintree on ground he doesn't want off
a tough handicap mark and first time out when his
record shows all his wins come after a recent race.
* Most past winners were seasonal debutants
* PURE FAITH isn't and doesn't look up to this
* OISEAU DE NUIT is a 11yo seasonal debutant
* He has a career high mark which looks tough
* He has never won at this trip before
* He isn't the type to defy big weights in these races
* VIVA COLONIA is not an experienced chaser
* We had 2 winners of this that were lightly raced
* Both had Grade 1 form and he doesn't
* I don't think he has the class to win this
* SAINT ARE wouldn't be my first choice
* He's won just twice before both times in the spring
* This trip looks a bit short for him as well
* Not convinced he jumps well enough anyway
* CARRICKBOY is a seasonal debutant
* His record first time out is nothing special
* He won at the Cheltenham Festival last year
* That was a 50/1 shock nobody saw coming
* Given his trainer he could be trained for that again
* He doesn't really have the backclass of past winners
* He has never won before Christmas
* Twice ran over Aintree fences and pulled up both times
* CONQUISTO has won 3 of 7 Chase starts
* He has never ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race though
* All past winners had done that before
* I don't really want a second season chaser like him
* Not an undersized one that hasn't been really tested
Possibles
* ASTRACAD has ran twice this season
* All his runs in Listed and Graded races failed
* I'd forgive him last run as it was a big field
* ASTRACAD is a small horse best in a small field
* Needs a career best to win this
* He wouldn't be my choice but he has 1 advantage
* He should be the fittest horse in the race
* MR MOONSHINE is well handicapped
* I don't think you can rule him out here
* He has experience and backclass
* I don't like the fact he is 0-9 above Class 2 grade
* He isn't proven here either so there are doubts
* This hasn't been a race for lightweights like him
* Being 5lbs out of the weights also puts me off
Shortlist
* WALKON has a great record when Fresh
* Last year he was second in the Paddy Power first time
* I don't think he fully stayed at Cheltenham that day
* I think this is his best distance
* Has to be shortlisted but he isn't reliable
* Not sure if he is as genuine as I'd like
* I think he is a potential saver
* WISHFULL THINKING is a 10yo debutant
* 4 of the last 5 winners were aged 10 + first time out
* He was second first time out in this race last year
* I think this is a much weaker renewal this year
* He couldn't live with the fast pace last year
* This looks his best distance
* He is a quirky sort with a history of breathing issues
* He's had multiple wind operations before
* When he is right he is a very smart horse
* A small field suits him admirably
* WISHFULL THINKING ought to go close here
Selection
WISHFULL THINKING 11/2
Each Way
N e w b u r y 3.30
5/1 Break Rank, 6/1 Hi There, 7/1 Cashpoint
8/1 Anton Chigurh, 8/1 Beaumont´s Party, 8/1 Mister Music
8/1 Soviet Rock, 8/1 Tigers Tale, 12/1 Sam Sharp
14/1 Salutation, 20/1 King´s Warrior, 20/1 Resurge.
* This is a Class 2 Handicap over 10f.
* There are 12 renewals of this race
* The best two statistics are these
* The last 12 winners of this race were aged 3 or 4
* None of the 14 winners came from 8f or shorter
* Not a race I wanted to spend much time on
* Decided these 4 were the most interesting
* SOVIET ROCK - BREAK RANK -TIGERS TALE -HI THERE
* HI THERE wouldn't be first choice but still respected
* SOVIET ROCK did interest me the most
* We just don't know if he is fit
D o n c a s t e r 3.50
7/2 Kingston Hill, 7/2 Pinzolo, 4/1 Century
8/1 Chief Barker, 8/1 Somewhat, 12/1 Johann Strauss
12/1 Snow Sky, 16/1 Altruistic, 16/1 Buonarroti
16/1 The Grey Gatsby, 200/1 Dolce N Karama.
The Racing Post Trophy has never been a good
race for trends and It doesn't offer much. I didn't
like CENTURY having just won on his debut only
13 days ago. This may be a bit too soon for him.
SNOW SKY looks wrong as no horses won from
a maiden after as many as 3 runs. SOMEWHAT
is more exposed that all recent winners except
the 1997 winner who had a very recent race. I
wouldn't rule out JOHANN STRAUSS. He looks
the O'Brien second string and you have to get
past that if you fancy him. Pricewise had done
that and gone for him. I think he is more place
than win material and that could be the bet to
have in the race. Bond to improve and maybe
just enough to frame. I'm putting him in a split
stake bet choosing any of these 3 for the win.
I'm guessing and only doing this race as its a
Group 1 race. I don't have a strong opinions.
Selection
KINGSTON HILL 4/1 Win Bet
JOHANN STRAUSS 5/2 Place Bet
S t r a t f o r d 3.55
This is far too difficult to bother about. It is a
2m 3f Handicap Hurdle. I just wanted to say
that I looked at every similar race in October
and November between 2m 2f and 2m 4f. It's
interesting the favourite MAGNIFIQUE ETOILE
has not raced in 589 days and has topweight.
* I looked at horses absent 300 + days
* Only 6 won from 202 that tried
* Those that came from handicaps were just 1-134
* That winner was a light weighted 5yo mare (Limelight)
* MAGNIFIQUE ETOILE has a bad profile on this basis
* He may well go and win if he is the best horse
* My angles suggest he should not be favourite
C h e p s t o w 4.10
3/1 Virak, 4/1 Broadway Buffalo, 6/1 Araldur
8/1 Kaylif Aramis, 8/1 Peckhamecho, 10/1 Lamb Or Cod
12/1 Makethe Mostofnow, 12/1 Notus De La Tour
14/1 Quaddick Lake, 20/1 Hold Court
20/1 Shammick Boy.
* This is a 2m 4f Handicap Hurdle in Listed Class
* Seasonal debutants are best e
* QUADDICK LAKE didn't do enough last time
* NOTUS DE LA TOUR didn't appeal
* He comes from a Non Novice handicap chase
* No past winners did that and he isn't my choice
* ARALDUR is 9 older than all past winners
* In 22 renewals horses aged 9 or more are 0-23
* I looked at recent winners with an absence like him
* Those with 11st 3lbs or more were just 1-32
* The last 9 winners had no more than 10st 9lbs
* Most had far fewer hurdle runs as well
* ARALDUR doesn't offer me enough with topweight
* BROADWAY BUFFALO is a 5yo debutant
* He has more weight than any of the last 22 winners
* The 2004 winner was a 5yo debutant with 11st 10lbs
* He had far more runs and more backclass
* BROADWAY BUFFALO weight must hurt him
* SHAMMICK BOY is a bit too exposed first time out
* MAKETHE MOSTOFNOW - I don't want an 8yo first time
* VIRAK is a 4 year old
* Horses aged 4 have a 2-33 record since 1991
* These two had 10st 7lbs and 10st 9lbs
* VIRAK has 11st 7lbs considerably more weight
* I am worried about his inexperience
* VIRAK only has 1 previous hurdle race in England
* One 4yo winner (Mr Thriller) had 4 hurdle starts
* He had 5 more in France and had Graded form
* The other (Carlovent) had several hurdle runs too
* He also had a recent win behind him
* VIRAK may be very smart and may win
* He has a very worrying profile though
* I think he's priced up on stable reputation
Shortlist
* HOLD COURT comes from a Novice Hurdle last year
* 3 recent winners did that including in 2011 and 2011
* These had 2 3 4 previous hurdle runs
* HOLD COURT isn't too bad here with 6 runs
* His profile is certainly shortlistable but not perfect
* I don't like the stable much to be honest
* LAMB OR COD won this race last year
* He has a higher mark and higher weight this year
* There is a 6yo debutant winning from a handicap
* I wouldn't say the neck hairs are standing up
* There are plenty of horses with much worse profiles
* LAMB OR COD is definitely shortlistable
* PECKHAMECHO - I wanted a bit better last run
* I am unclear about a 10lbs claimer riding as well
* He has some very good handicap hurdle form
* Clearly not taken to chasing he is better hurdling
* KAYLIF ARAMIS is a 6yo debutant from a handicap
* The 2002 winner had a similar profile
* I would have liked some more backclass
* What I do like is his progressive Racing Post Ratings
* They went 108 107 111 116 121 127 121
Selection
KAYLIF ARAMIS 10/1 Win Bet
PECKHAMECHO 9/1 Saver
LAMB OR COD 9/1 Saver
C h e p s t o w 4.45
7/4 Sire De Grugy, 9/4 Rebel Rebellion
4/1 Majala, 7/1 Theatrical Star, 12/1 Cornas
20/1 Mister Matt.
Annoying handicap chase as I don't fancy two
horses but know that's unsafe in a small field
and my alternatives are hardly bomb proof.
* SIRE DE GRUGY - Track and weight bother me
* REBEL REBELLION - No winners came from Graded Novices
* I also think this probably a prep run for Exeter
* Perhaps lay Sire De Grugy and Rebel Rebellion ?
* That way you get odds against every other runner
* Not sure about that bet or this race so bailing out
* Force me to choose maybe MAJALA is the one
Leopardstown 5.25
Only one preview to go and I haven't yet mentioned
any of the Irish Racing. I noticed one thing in the 5.25.
* This is 12f on soft ground
* STOCKTONS WING is sired by Jeremy
* I looked at this sire's flat runners at 11f and more
* So far the record is 0-40
* STOCKTONS WING - Too big a price to lay
* I'd like to oppose him in a match bet though
D o n c a s t e r 5.30
11/2 Glanely, 13/2 Tatlisu, 7/1 Lilac Tree
7/1 Soaring Spirits, 8/1 It Must Be Faith, 9/1 George Rooke
10/1 Teetotal, 12/1 Huntsmans Close, 12/1 Lazarus Bell
14/1 Dance With Dragons, 16/1 Banovallum, 16/1 Entwined
16/1 Lastchancelucas, 20/1 Ocean Applause
25/1 Shrimper Roo.
* This is a 3yo Apprentice Handicap over 7f
* Very rare race and only 20 past renewals
* There are some angles worth considering
* All 20 winners had at least 4 career starts
* IT MUST BE FAITH may be too inexperienced
* LILAC TREE only has 2 runs this season
* It's two less than every other horse
* He just looks wrong dropping down 3f as well
* Horses beaten 10 + lengths last time struggled
* With 7 or more career runs these types were 1-102
* The following horses are opposed failing this
* LASTCHANCELUCAS - SHRIMPER ROO
* OCEAN APPLAUSE - ENTWINED
* TEETOTAL should be avoided from a 5f race
* Horses from 3yo handicaps have struggled
* We haven't had one win in 12 renewals now
* None like HUNTSMANS CLOSE did it with an absence
* LAZARUS BELL doesn't appeal from a 3yo handicap
* BANOVALLUM - Not first choice up in distance
* DANCE WITH DRAGONS wouldn't be first choice
Shortlist
* TATLISU - Its not a very impressive profile
* Shortlistable but I wanted a bit better
* SOARING SPIRITS - His lack of backclass worries me
* He has no form beyond a Class 4 race and 9 + runs
* That used to be a disastrous profile in this race
* The 2011 winner did manage to overcome that
* GEORGE ROOKE - The 2010 winner was similar
* GLANELY - One of the safer profiles
Selection
GLANELY 5/1 Win Bet
SOARING SPIRITS 7/1 Saver
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