A Sample Message From October 2022
The RED bits were added later.
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Mathematician 4242
Sunday October 2nd
9 Previews
0 Account Bet
No Account bet
Preview Selections
Tipperary 1.15
Covent Garden 11/8 (WON)
Win Bet
Kelso 1.25
£7.50 Win Bet Well Educated100/30 (WON)
£2.50 Win Bet The Navigator 100/30-7/2
Killarney 1.35
£8.00 Win Bet Our Bobby 4/1
£2.00 Win Bet Buttons And Bows 9/2 (WON)
Tipperary 1.50
£4.50 Each Way Eloquent Arthur 10/1 (Placed)
£1.00 Win Bet Allihies 11/1-12/1
Tipperary 2.25
£8.00 Win Bet Statement 3/1-100/30 (WON)
£2.00 Win Bet Current Option 100/30-7/2
Tipperary 3.00
Champ Kiely 6/4 (WON)
Win Bet
Longchamp 3.05 (LOST)
£7.00 Win Bet Al Hakeem 14/1-16/1
£1.00 Win Bet Vadeni 9/1
£1.00 Win Bet Onesto 10/1
£1.00 Win Bet Mendocino 40/1
Longchamp 4.25 (LOST)
£8.00 Win Bet Flotus 11/1
£1.00 Win Bet Teresa Mendoza 7/1
£1.00 Win Bet Tees Spirit 11/1
Killarney 5.05
Joeswayornoway 6/1 (WON)
Each Way
Today's Message
Not the easiest of days
The harder races covered
Potentially look too difficult
To go with any strong bets
The softer races are options
But this means short prices
Arc De Triomphe day
Covered two French races
More out of tradition really
Not many will be involved
Not expecting much there
Disappointing as it may be
The two short priced bets
Could be combined together
In an each way double bet
Tipperary 1.15 - COVENT GARDEN 11/8
Tipperary 3.00 - CHAMP KIELY 6/4
Each Way Double
That looks a sensible bet to me
It won't be universally popular
But anyone who buys into that
I think that a good strategic bet
Alternately
£4 Win Bet on both horses
£2 Win Double on them both
Would not be too bad a bet
Only 1 has to win not to lose
Both have massive chances
However despite all of that
Not putting myself through it
So shouldn't put you through it
My Best Bet
Difficult to choose one really
But settled on this selection
On a race where most races
Are of similar strength really
Today's Best Bet
Killarney 5.05
JOESWAYORNOWAY 6/1
Each Way
Underneath The Message
Tipperary 1.15
Covent Garden 11/8
Win Bet
Think this race is a match
There are multiple bet options
Discussed earlier in message
Thought about a radical bet
Betting him each way at 6/4
But you could do the same
For his market danger at 7/4
So going to sit this one out
Kelso 1.25
£7.50 Win Bet Well Educated100/30
£2.50 Win Bet The Navigator 100/30-7/2
Favourite fails a 0-196 statistic
The only reason this race is in
Selection little more than a guess
Killarney 1.35
£8.00 Win Bet Our Bobby 4/1
£2.00 Win Bet Buttons And Bows 9/2
Wasn't sure about staking
Every chance this is too risky
Downthecellar worries me too
Could have gone win + place
Gut feeling I should be doing
Downthecellar as the place
Our Bobby as the win bet
Not confident enough here
Suspect I've staked it wrong
Tipperary 1.50
£4.50 Each Way Eloquent Arthur 10/1
£1.00 Win Bet Allihies 11/1-12/1
I love the race but in the end
I was struggling for a clear choice
I am taking some warm comfort
That the market has no idea either
The safer stake in this handicap
Would be £2.50 each way on both
Worried about both their stamina
Gut says I have not nailed this one
Tipperary 2.25
£8.00 Win Bet Statement 3/1-100/30
£2.00 Win Bet Current Option 100/30-7/2
Like the 3 market leaders in this
Something had to give though
If I was having a bet in this race
I would alter the staking slightly
Current Option as a place bet 4/5
Statement as the win bet 100/30
But the official stakes will stand
Tipperary 3.00
Champ Kiely 6/4
Win Bet
Feel he should be winning
Prefer the each way double
Nightmare scenario would be
Mullins winning with 2nd string
Longchamp 3.05
£7.00 Win Bet Al Hakeem 14/1-16/1
£1.00 Win Bet Vadeni 9/1
£1.00 Win Bet Onesto 10/1
£1.00 Win Bet Mendocino 40/1
Hit and hope Arc bet
Longchamp 4.25
£8.00 Win Bet Flotus 11/1
£1.00 Win Bet Teresa Mendoza 7/1
£1.00 Win Bet Tees Spirit 11/1
Hit and hope Abbaye bet
Killarney 5.05
Joeswayornoway 6/1
Each Way
I like this more than the market
But there are some strange issues
I'd like to see more market support
And she is capable of a mistake
That said she is now my best bet
Yesterday's Summary
Saturday threw up 11 previews
Lord Erskine was a non runner
Had a lot of win and place bets
More than I should have done
Appreciate some can not get on
But sometimes events take over
Races change at the last minute
Lets deal with the break levels
CRESTA was a good place saver
Allowed space for a ridiculous bet
High Definition flopped yet again
Not sure if we ever had a chance
But I thought it was well staked
There were other place returns
Indigo Breeze second each way
In a race only 6 horses took part
Queen Aminatu another place bet
Did what was needed to save us
Cold Case won another saver bet
MANACCAN was a decent winner
Profit effectively paid for 2 losers
Hurricane Vichi was one of those
Boardman another in a handicap
Most of the message did nicely
Those races paid for themselves
The day came down to 2 races
Both of these soft early previews
CHARLIE LUCIANO was second
Looked a winner 1.04 in running
Some blame a mistake at the last
My view the jockey was dossing
Took it too easy when well ahead
That should have been a winner
So that just left the staked bet
Philosophical in the close defeat
DELLBOY TROTTER ran nicely
Finished second our saver third
Soft ground long distance race
Conditional riders in play as well
Bound to be known unknowns
Pace tactics and the odd error
But I thought both ran very well
Just met one older horse better
Was not unhappy with the bet
The obvious issue was staking
Could have done that each way
But didn't so it was a losing bet
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
Tipperary 1.15
11/8 Covent Garden, 2/1 Mount King, 6/1 San Antonio
12/1 Newport, 14/1 Grey Fable, 16/1 Kingswood
20/1 Charlie Darling, 25/1 Vampire Slayer, 66/1 Annalough
200/1 Cloughaneely Mor.
2yo Maiden 9f
Jesus Mary and Joseph
Aidan Joseph and Donnacha
Train the main runners in this
Should really be a 2 horse race
NETWORK well beaten last time
That was only 15 days ago now
Doubt going up in trip will work
Given his pedigree and his sire
SAN ANTONIO is unraced
Unraced horses are 1-32 in this
The market leaders have 2 runs
MOUNT KING has a big chance
But he'd be my second choice
Not really because of sire stats
But his sire National Defense
Has not bred a 2yo winner at 8f +
That is only a matter of time
But over 9f on very soft ground
COVENT GARDEN got the vote
Selection
COVENT GARDEN 11/8
Win Bet
Kelso 1.25
5/2 Onward Route, 11/4 The Navigator, 5/1 Well Educated
7/1 Evita Du Mesnil, 8/1 Bollingerandkrug, 10/1 Scots Poet
12/1 Jackhammer, 25/1 My Macho Man.
2m Handicap Hurdle
Did not want to do this race
But a statistic fell in my lap
October and November
Handicap Hurdles
Run between 2m and 2m 3f
Horses aged 8 or more
Coming from a chase
Running within 5 months
Have a miserable 0-196 record
ONWARD ROUTE fails this stat
It is a strange angle
Spread it out to September
September to November
Handicap Hurdles
Run between 2m and 2m 3f
Horses aged 8 or more
Coming from a chase
Running within 5 months
Carrying 11st 4lbs or more
Have a horrible 0-111 record
ONWARD ROUTE fails this
Have to oppose him
But I have ran out of time
To look at all of these seriously
If we get him beaten
My statistics deserve credit
But the selection realistically
Has to be an educated guess
Selection
£7.50 Win Bet WELL EDUCATED 100/30
£2.50 Win Bet THE NAVIGATOR 100/30-7/2
Killarney 1.35
9/2 Buttons And Bows, 11/2 Our Bobby, 6/1 Toor Moment
13/2 Downthecellar, 7/1 Veneziano Springs, 8/1 Only One Plan
9/1 General Clermont, 10/1 Bonnie Kellie, 14/1 Crescent Lake
14/1 Elusive Rebeldom, Keep 'Em Lit, 20/1 All The Angels
20/1 Willie Bob, 25/1 Red Archangel, 33/1 Bal Kauto
50/1 Zeydabad.
Handicap Hurdle 2m 1f
Open race
Not wasting time here
Thought many of these
Looked underaced this season
Many of these are outsiders
BONNIE KELLIE is not though
Just 1 run in 185 days now
And dropping down from 2m 6f
ONLY ONE PLAN leaves me cold
Beaten miles and only 2 days ago
TOOR MOMENT is a 7yo mare
Can resist her absent 130 days
VENEZIANO SPRINGS a 10yo
Would be an unsafe first choice
GENERAL CLERMONT a 6yo
Could win but a tough weight
With just 1 modest run since July
DOWNTHECELLAR is respected
May be well handicapped here
But beaten 14 lengths 6 days ago
Not convinced that was enough
Decided to split stake
Only 3 past renewals
Interesting all 3 winners
Dropped in trip from 2m 3f +
Selection
£8.00 Win Bet OUR BOBBY 4/1
£2.00 Win Bet BUTTONS AND BOWS 9/2
Tipperary 1.50
4/1 Mister Wilson, 13/2 Onlyhuman, 8/1 Star Harbour
9/1 Dare To Flare, 9/1 Inchturk, 10/1 Allihies
10/1 Eloquent Arthur, 11/1 Saltonstall, 12/1 Cowboy Justice
12/1 Quizical, 14/1 Only For Me, 14/1 Sirjack Thomas
25/1 Loingseoir, 25/1 New Hill.
9f Handicap
Horses rated 94 and less
There looks a draw bias
Against the lowest stall
Since 2011
Tipperary 9f handicaps
With 7 or more runners
Horses drawn 1 are 0-47
ONLY FOR ME has this draw
Tipperary 9f handicaps
With under 15 runners
No horse with over 12 runs
Has won drawn 12 or more
LOINGSEIOR fails this
STAR HARBOUR does too
SIRJACK THOMAS is unsafe
He is a 7yo going up 2 furlongs
NEW HILL is not running well
Horses aged 7 or more struggle
Tipperary 9f handicaps
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horses aged 7 or more are 1-62
Horses aged 8 or more are 0-30
SALTONSTALL is an 8 year old
Big weight and high draw will hurt
ONLYHUMAN is rejected as a 9yo
QUIZICAL is an underaced 7yo
Having just 1 race in 135 days
INCHTURK is absent too long
Just 4 runs and 151 days off
Not a track I'd risk absences
September to November
Titterary Handicaps
Run in Class 4 or higher
Any distance
Horses aged 3-4-5
Absent more than 25 days
Have a 0-51 record in them
INCHTURK fails this statistic
MISTER WILSON off 26 days
Technically fails this by 1 day
Obviously best to ignore that
But don't see enough I liked
He won last time out over 8f
But up in trip and no recent run
This is not a sire I would risk
Over this far on this ground
DARE TO FLARE won last time
Apprentice race for 0-72 horses
This is in a much classier 0-94
May just be too warm for him
COWBOY JUSTICE is a 3yo
Every chance on ability/profile
Got lost in a better race last time
Winner of that race got 88k
Winner of this race gets 12k
But he has lost momentum
ELOQUENT ARTHUR is a 4yo
Ran well 2nd just 10 days ago
Not the safest on sire statistics
But it was 9f on soft last time
ALLIHIES is a 3 year old
Ran in the same race 10 days ago
Handicapped to win this race
If he can stay 9f on soft ground
Selection
£4.50 Each Way ELOQUENT ARTHUR 10/1
£1.00 Win Bet ALLIHIES 11/1-12/1
Tipperary 2.25
4/1 Current Option, 9/2 Markaz Paname, 11/2 Statement
13/2 Casanova, 13/2 Snapraeterea, 9/1 Sh Boom
14/1 Laughifuwant, Maud Gonne Spirit, 16/1 Belle Image
16/1 Lustown Baba, Nectaris, 20/1 Pale Iris, 25/1 Prettiest.
Concorde Stakes
Group 3 (7.5f)
MAUDE GONNE SPIRIT
She is an older 5yo mare
She has raced once in a year
She could be underraced here
She also has a 15 day absence
Horses running within 20 days
Have a 0-32 record in the race
The following horses fail
MAUDE GONNE SPIRIT
PALE IRIS
SH BOOM
STATEMENT
PRETTIEST
CASANOVA also fails this
He has a tough draw in 1
Horses aged 5 or more
Absent over 29 days
Have yet to win this
LAUGHIFYOUWANT fails this
He has a testing 118 day break
SNAPRAETEREA is a 4yo
He's raced once in 12 months
No sign or form or fitness
BELLE IMAGE is a 4yo filly
She has not ran in 74 days
She has 1 run in 175 days
Would be worried about fitness
LUSTOWN BABA an older mare
Has raced once in 133 days
Adds up to an unsafe profile
NECTARIS is a 3 year old filly
They have a strong record in this
But they were all lighter raced
None were beaten as far last time
Shortlist
MARKAZ PANAME
CURRENT OPTION
STATEMENT
CURRENT OPTION is a 6yo
Only 2 older horses have won
You are better off with younger
But he did win this race in 2020
Considered him as a saver bet
MARKAZ PANAME is a 3yo
He has raced once in 175 days
Not keen on that lack of races
But he is very lightly raced
And because of it profile safe
Has to be said past renewals
Went to similar types 3 times
But they all dropped from 8f
MARKAZ PANAME does not
STATEMENT could be interesting
Statistically unsafe with 5 days off
Horses running within 20 days
Have a 0-32 record in the race
But looked at this angle closely
Many that tried were unfancied
Several came from lower grades
There were plenty that went close
Including 3 coming 2nd in this
STATEMENT has momentum
MARKAZ PANAME
Has a group race penalty as well
CURRENT OPTION 1 run in 63 days
Also worth bearing in mind here
If you go back to the 2009 race
Horses from handicaps are 0-21
The winner hasn't come that way
CURRENT OPTION fails this stat
MARKAZ PANAME does as well
So switching to a recent returner
Selection
£8.00 Win Bet STATEMENT 3/1
£2.00 Win Bet CURRENT OPTION 5/1
Tipperary 3.00
6/4 Champ Kiely, 7/2 Brazil, 11/2 Hubrisko
The Friday Man, 7/1 Marvel De Cerisy, 10/1 Gaelic Arc
12/1 Plains Indian, 16/1 Rioga Choice, 25/1 Granny Lowrie
25/1 Senecia.
Graded Novice Hurdle
My first gut reaction
CHAMP KEILY may be unsafe
Coming from a maiden hurdle
Having just 1 hurdle run before
Going straight into a Graded race
Soon changed my mind though
Willie Mullins farms this race
Won 6 of the last 7 renewals
And on 3 of those occasions
He won with a similar horse
Who had just 1 hurdle race
And came from a maiden hurdle
Last years winner an example
He came from the same maiden
When he won that maiden hurdle
He did it despite a long absence
If you do some deeper digging
CHAMP KEILY is well regarded
And his main rival has questions
BRAZIL is a 4 year old
He has 12 career starts
And 178 days off the track
Go back 25 years
January to October
Graded novice hurdles
Any and every distance
Horses aged 4
More than 5 career runs
Absent more than 54 days
Have a 0-35 record in them
Surprising statistic
Far from a deal breaker
BRAZIL shares this profile
What it basically means
No 4yo won with his profile
Before November since 1997
HUBRISKO could go well
But Mullins second string
Took 3 runs to win his maiden
THE FRIDAY MAN respected
But will he want a 5f drop in trip
I think the market is right here
Mullins can extend his domination
Selection
CHAMP KEILY 6/4
Win Bet
Longchamp 3.05
7/2 Luxembourg, 9/2 Alpinista, 7/1 Torquator Tasso
7/1 Vadeni, 8/1 Titleholder, 9/1 Westover, 10/1 Onesto
14/1 Al Hakeem, 25/1 Do Deuce, 25/1 Mare Australis
25/1 Mendocino, Mishriff, 33/1 Sealiway, 40/1 Bubble Gift
40/1 Mostahdaf, 50/1 Alenquer, 66/1 Broome, Deep Bond
66/1 Grand Glory, Stay Foolish.
Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe
Been covering this all week
No need to repeat everything
VADENI provisional selection
Still like his chances of winning
Even if his jockey complicates
Having just had a serious ban
For pushing over another jockey
AL HAKEEM
Changed my position on him
The angle he failed midweek
Was meaningless and wrong
Failed an absence stat by 1 day
Half of me says he is the bet
The other pragmatic half says
That if I look at his sires record
The numbers his runners post
When running over 12f or more
Are some way short of ideal
His 10f runners score far better
So will he get this distance here
You could say at this track
On soft it could be falsely run
Which would probably suit him
I wanted something on him
So in the end
Decided on a multi horse attack
All win bets so can use Betfair
Selection
£7.00 Win Bet AL HAKEEM 14/1-16/1
£1.00 Win Bet VADENI 9/1
£1.00 Win Bet ONESTO 10/1
£1.00 Win Bet MENDOCINO 40/1
Longchamp 4.25
5/2 The Platinum Queen, 13/2 Coeur De Pierre, 8/1 Berneuil
8/1 Teresa Mendoza, 12/1 A Case Of You, Flotus, Mitbaahy
14/1 Mooneista, 16/1 Tees Spirit, White Lavender, 25/1 Agiato
25/1 Castle Star, Caturra, Mo Celita, New York City, Raasel
33/1 Moss Tucker, 40/1 Ponntos, 50/1 Miramar.
Prix de l'Abbaye
Only covering this race
As it has a great heritage
And we have a favourite
Trained by Richard Fahey
Who is only 2 years old
THE PLATNUM QUEEN is a 2yo
Yes she gets lumps of weight
Comes here fit and in form too
But history of this race tells us
The last 2yo winner in this race
Was 44 years ago back in 1978
Either way opposing her today
Rejecting the highest draws too
A CASE FOR YOU drawn 19
BERNEUIL drawn in stall 1
Most past winners
Had raced twice or more
Since Glorious Goodwood
There are a couple that didnt
But the vast majority did though
Several of these look underraced
WHITE LAVENDER
AGIATO
COEUR DE PIERRE
He is a 6 year old
Just 2 runs in 12 months
That feels much to risky
MITBAAHY has a chance
Stall 15 is not a safe draw
Past 3yo winners of this race
Won from stalls 5 2 3 2 12
MITBAAHY is 3 stalls higher
MOONEISTA just missed out
Shortlisting 3 horses
Betfair prices
TERESA MENDOZA 7/1
FLOTUS 11/1
TEES SPIRIT 11/1
FLOTUS got the verdict
Would rather have a 3yo
Past 3yo winners of this
Had 9 8 11 9 10 13 runs
FLOTUS has had 12 runs
So is within that range
Selection
£8.00 Win Bet FLOTUS 11/1
£1.00 Win Bet TERESA MENDOZA 7/1
£1.00 Win Bet TEES SPIRIT 11/1
Killarney 5.05
3/1 Berliet Express, 100/30 Search For A Myth
5/1 Padraic's Choice, 7/1 Joeswayornoway
8/1 Cracklinrose, 14/1 Cluan Dara, Moonlit Sea
20/1 Rolling Revenge.
Handicap Chase 2m 1f
Found a track angle here
Not sure how good this is
As not many fail it
And this is a smallish field
Killarney
Handicap Chases
Any distance
Any class
Any time of year
No horse aged 5
Has won any of these races
a) With under 3 chase starts
b) When carrying 11st 5lbs +
SEARCH FOR A MYTH fails both
Having his chase debut and 11st 8lbs
CRACKLINROSE fails that as well
Having raced in just 1 chase before
CLUAN DARA is rejected
Needed a better run last time
MOONLIT SEA is resistible
PADRAIC'S CHOICE a 7yo
Has raced once in 14 months
That was in a hurdle race too
Last jumped a fence 21 months ago
BERLIET EXPRESS
Hacked up 2 days ago
That was only over hurdles
But he has 6 chase races
And this is not beyond him
Not the biggest of horses
JOESWAYORNOWAY a 6yo
Has every chance on his form
He would be my preference
The dilemma is the staking
Could go for a win bet at 6/1
BERLIET EXPRESS as saver
Or could go each way instead
And that was just preferred
Selection
JOESWAYORNOWAY 6/1
Each Way
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