Mathematician 4034
Saturday Feb 5th
5 Previews
1 Account Bet
Staked Bet
Musselburgh 3.45
£7.00 Win Bet CAPTAIN CATTISTOCK 5/1
£3.00 Win Bet HIGHLAND HUNTER 9/4
Today's Message
Overdue a good Saturday
Last couple were hideous
Main aim today
Staked bet winner
I've cut down the previews
Took a calculated gamble
Focussed on 2 big handicaps
To see if we had a decent bet
Not worked out as I expected
Probably backfired a little bit
Both bigger priced selections
With strategic place saver bets
Like them but both unstakable
Interesting angles everywhere
Several beautiful generic stats
But will these get wasted today
The staked bet
Price comes out over 3/1
After a saver on the favourite
It might be 4 miles of misery
But the angles do seem clear
Musselburgh 3.45
£7.00 Win Bet CAPTAIN CATTISTOCK 5/1
£3.00 Win Bet HIGHLAND HUNTER 9/4
Preview Selections
Leopardstown 1.35
£7.00 Win Bet Fil Dor 6/4
£3.00 Place Ber Ben Siegel 9/4
Leopardstown 2.45
£3.00 Each Way Authorized Art 14/1-16/1
£4.00 Place Bet Dunboyne 6/4-13/8-7/4
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5-6
Sandown 2.55
£3.50 Each Way The Brimming Water 16/1
£3.00 Place Bet Call Me Lord 5/2 (4 Places)
Musselburgh 3.45
£7.00 Win Bet Captain Cattistock 5/1
£3.00 Win Bet Highland Hunter 9/4
Leopardstown 3.50
£9.00 Win Bet Mt Leinster 2/1-7/4
£1.00 Win Bet Capuccimix 8/1-9/1
Yesterday's Summary
Not a very ambitious message
Officially finished off W L L W
Got hit with collapsing markets
Collingham won his race easily
But his main dangers pulled out
Leaving us with an odds on shot
Perfect Symphony ran very well
Beaten a neck for 3rd and at 16/1
Place everywhere bar on the line
Adams Barbour was a nice finish
But 11/4-3/1 earlier ended up 7/4
Just got hit my withdrawals really
But overall results not too shabby
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
Leopardstown 1.35
5/4 Fil Dor, 11/8 Vauban, 11/2 Icare Allen
10/1 The Tide Turns, 12/1 Ben Siegel
25/1 Vadaly, 40/1 Six Feet Apart
50/1 Il Etait Temps, 100/1 Scenic Look.
Spring Juvenile Hurdle
4yo Hurdle
Grade 1
Triumph Hurdle trial
FIL DOR 7/2 second favourite
VAUBAN 9/2 is third favourite
Market suggests 2 horses
Have the superior chance
ICARE ALLEN is one of those
But he has raced just twice
Past winners
Had the following career runs
Races over any and every code
3 10 13 10 8 5 11 8 10 5 14 6
Every past winner had 3 + runs
All bar last year had 5 or more
ICARE ALLEN is not my choice
VADALY has the same problem
THE TIDE TURNS is drifting
Just one run since September
And the stables second string
Should be a 3 horse race
FIL DOR has 4 runs
Strong chance on figures
Looks the most likely winner
BEN SIEGAL maybe a little raw
But 2 past winners of this race
Came via a Punchestown maiden
Well thought of and overprices
VAUBAN is the problem to assess
He comes from a good trial race
Only had 1 run in 201 days now
Willie Mullins took the same path
With the 2015 winner of this race
But she was a filly and he is not
Can not take him on lightly here
FIL DOR just offers more
Feel the right way to play this
Use a place bet for the saver
Which allows us to be wrong
If we go for Elliot over Mullins
Selection
£7.00 Win Bet FIL DOR 6/4
£3.00 Place Ber BEN SIEGEL 2/1
Leopardstown 2.45
5/1 Panda Boy, 13/2 Good Time Jonny
7/1 Dunboyne 8/1 Priory Park, 17/2 A Great View
11/1 Futurum Regem 12/1 Unexpected Depth
14/1 Rightplacerightime 16/1 Aldo The Apache
16/1 Captain Kangaroo, 16/1 Maze Runner
16/1 The Jam Man, 20/1 Pour Pavore, Top Moon
25/1 Authorized Art, Ballywilliam Boy, Enjoy D'allen
28/1 Cobbler's Way, 28/1 De Name Escapes Me
28/1 Whatsnotoknow, 33/1 Dallas Des Pictons
33/1 Dark Voyager, 50/1 Scoir Mear
66/1 The Little Yank.
3m Handicap Hurdle
10 Past renewals
115 similar races
Horses aged 10 or more
Have yet to win this (0-29)
January and February
Similar races since 2008
Horses aged 11 or more
Have a poor 1-84 record
Those that raced that year
Had a 0-73 record in them
SCOIR MEAR rejected aged 12
DE NAME ESCAPES ME is too
A GREAT VIEW is 11 years old
Not really a safe enough type
Dublin Festival
Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Any Class of race
Horses from a Novice
Running within 5 months
Have a 0-57 record in them
THE LITTLE YANK fails this
GOOD TIME JOHNNY does
115 Similar races show
Horses aged 7 or more
Coming from 2m 4f or less
Absent more than 3 weeks
With over 10 career starts
Have a weak 2-111 record
Those with 10st 10lbs or more
Have a 0-53 record in them
GOOD TIME JOHNNY fails this
BALYWILLIAM BOY does too
This maybe significant
3m Handicap Hurdles
Run at any time of year
That had over 11 runners
Horses aged 7 or more
Coming from 2m 4f or less
Absent more than 22 days
Over 11 career starts
Carrying 10st 10lbs or more
Have a 0-150 record in them
The following horses fail this
GOOD TIME JOHNNY
BALYWILLIAM BOY
TOP MOON is 7 years old
He comes from a 2m hurdle
No past winner of this race
Came from 2m 3f or shorter
All 25 that tried were beaten
TOP MOON looks one to avoid
WHATSNOTOKNOW is out
He also steps up a mile in trip
Horses in this race
Not doing enough last time
COBBLERS WAY topweight
1 bad chase run in 11 months
DARK VOYAGER out of form
DALLAS DES PICTONS a 9yo
Is exposed with a tough weight
Not a race for the high weighted
Horses with over 19 career runs
Have a 0-40 record in this race
Several above fail this statistic
MAZE RUNNER also fails this
He did win this race last season
He was less exposed last year
Had considerably less weight
THE JAM MAN an exposed 9yo
Does not have the right profile
Especially with 11st 11lbs too
Horses with 10st 13lbs or more
Have a 1-41 record in this race
FUTURE REGEM is unsafe
Horses with over 19 career runs
Have a 0-40 record in this race
FUTURE REGEM fails this angle
He is so exposed for a 6 year old
Having 31 runs and 16 in hurdles
That said he is fit and is in form
He is also running career bests
But his type have not won this
He comes from a flat bred sire
Who has no winners over 3m +
The overall package is unsafe
CAPTAIN KANGEROO rejected
Not the best of breeding statistics
Hurdlers sired by Mastercraftsman
Running over 2m 5f and more
Absent more than 43 days
Have a 0-12 record up to know
UNEXPECTED DEPTH an 8yo
Has raced once in 9 months
May be a big ask with 14 runs
Horses with over 9 hurdle races
Have a Poor 1-61 record in this
UNEXPECTED DEPTH fails this
And is topweight on top of that
PANDA BOY has 5 runs
Bit on the inexperienced side
When you factor in 11st 6lbs
Horses with 10st 13lbs or more
Have a 1-41 record in this race
I can match him to a winner
If I am prepared to bend rules
My concern will he have enough
With only 6 runners behind him
In a big field with a lot of weight
And just 1 run in 91 days now
Just feels too big an ask for him
RIGHTPLACERIGHTTIME a 7yo
Has more runs than past winners
You can make a fair case for him
Rated only 116 and bottomweight
His figures show he is well treated
But will he have enough class
When bottomweight off 77 days
All previous winners of this race
Raced within the last 64 days
January to March
3m Handicap Hurdles
Run in Class 2 and higher
Horses under 9 years old
Over 12 career starts
Over 12 hurdle starts
Absent over 43 days
Have a winless 0-53 record
RIGHTPLACERIGHTTIME fails this
ENJOY D'ALLEN is from a chase
Can't rule him out despite that
He is probably well handicapped
But is this a Grand National prep
And he does fail this statistic
January to March
3m Handicap Hurdles
Class 2 and higher
Horses aged 8 or more
Over 16 career starts
Coming from a chase
Have a 0-99 record in them
ENJOY D'ALLEN is rejected
POUR PAVORE is a 6yo
Hat trick bid failed last time
But it was in a good trial race
Lightly raced from a big yard
He is overpriced around 33/1
But this is much warmer class
Than he has been used to
ALDO THE APACHE
Similar profile to Priory Park
With a bit more experienced
His hat trick bid failed last time
But he had a few weeks break
And made the running last time
Should not be underestimated
Maybe be could bounce back
PRIORY PARK is a 6yo
He has 7 runs all in hurdles
3m Handicap Hurdles
Class 2 and higher
Run at any time of year
Horses aged 6
Under 8 career runs
Over 5 hurdle starts
Coming from 2m 4f or less
Have a 0-18 record in them
Not a profile I can match well
I would see him as a neutral
AUTHORIZED ART is a 7yo
One main statistical objection
Horses running within 2 months
Beaten 10 + lengths last time out
Have a winless 0-62 record
AUTHORIZED ART fails this stat
He only just fails it beaten 12 L
And that seems very forgiveable
As he was stepping up 8f in trip
DUNBOYNE is a 7 year old
Passes all my angles in this
Ran well last time hampered
Had a rough passage as well
Does he want to win this race
Currently 10/1 ante post fav
For the Pertempts hurdle
He will probably get in off 128
With a lightweight at Cheltenham
Todays race is more valuable
So he should be here on merits
But everyone can see his chance
And he is not a rewarding price
Going to make him a place saver
Selection
£3.00 Each Way AUTHORIZED ART 14/1-16/1
£4.00 Place Bet DUNBOYNE 6/4-13/8-7/4
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5-6
Sandown 2.55
11/2 Green Book, 6/1 Ree Okka, 13/2 Beauport
8/1 Born Patriot, Orbys Legend, 9/1 Call Me Lord
9/1 Dans Le Vent, 11/1 Jesuitique, 16/1 Dolphin Square
16/1 Flemcara, Onagatheringstorm,The Brimming Water
20/1 Padleyourowncanoe, The Cob, 25/1 Ask Dillon
25/1 If The Cap Fits, 33/1 Easysland, 66/1 Garo De Juilley.
Graded Handicap hurdle (3m)
EASYLAND has topweight
Not to mention 325 days off
Big weights struggle in this
Last 18 winners of this race
ran within the last 63 days
They score badly elsewhere
Graded Handicap Hurdles
January to March
Run over 2m 4f and more
Horses absent 90 + days
Have a horrible 1-119 record
Those with 5 or more runs
Have a 0-103 record in them
EASYLAND fails this statistic
BORN PATRIOT also fails this
No winners were aged 10 +
GARO DE JUILLEY is one
FLEMCARA another 10yo
Has twice failed to win this
That was way back 2018-19
Not trusting now at his age
Technically with 11st 2lbs +
He also fails a weight angle
This is a race for lightweights
Horses with 10st 13lbs or more
Have a poor 1-58 record in this
IF THE CAP FITS is a 10yo
He fails the age and weight stat
High weights do not score well
IF THE CAP FITS has 11st 6lbs
Looks too exposed and beatable
DOPLHIN SQUARE an 8 year old
More runs and weight than ideal
ORBYS LEGEND has 11st 4lbs
He has won 3 hurdles this year
Now 15lbs higher than he was
He will need a career best to win
This is interesting
Go back to 1997
Sandown Handicaps
Run in Listed and Graded class
Any distance
Any time of year
Horses under 9 years old
Absent more than 28 days
Carrying 10st 13lbs or more
Have a 0-110 record in them
That's quite a surprising stat
ORBYS LEGEND fails this
DOLPHIN SQUARE fails it
ASK DILLON is not running well
THE COB pulled up last time out
REE OKKA is a 6 year old
Lest experienced horse here
He's only has 3 lifetime starts
All past winners had 4 or more
Horses with fewer are 0-10
Not a profile I could trust here
PADDLEYOUROWNCANOE an 8yo
Pulled up early in a chase last time
Not trusting him with 38 races
More than all past winners of this
GREEN BOOK is 5 years old
The last 5 year old winner
Was 19 years ago in 2003
Since then all 22 were beat
Those 5yo winners
Won last time out as well
GREEN BOOK unseated
This statistic worries me
January and February
Handicap Hurdles 2m 5f +
Class 2 races and higher
Horses aged 5
Over 16 career starts
Have a 0-31 record in them
GREEN BOOK has 22 races
That seems a bit too exposed
Go back to 2013
January to September
Handicap Hurdles
Listed and Graded races
Run over 2m 1f and more
Horses aged 5
Over 12 career starts
Return a 0-65 record
GREEN BOOK fails this angle
ONAGATHERINGSTORM a 7yo
Has a testing absence 57 days
Comes here after a poor last run
JESUITIQUE has 19 hurdle runs
Quite exposed for 49 days off
January and February
Handicap Hurdles
Run over 2m 6f and more
In Class 2 and higher
With over 10 runners
Horses aged under 10
Over 15 career starts
Absent over 43 days
Return a 0-92 record
JESUITIQUE has this profile
BEAUPORT is a 6 year old
Lightly raced with 7 races
3m Handicap Hurdles
Class 2 and higher
Run at any time of year
Horses aged 6
Under 8 career runs
Over 5 hurdle starts
Coming from 2m 4f or less
Have a 0-18 record in them
See him more as a neutral
He's raced once in 90 days
So there are some concerns
Could be a possible saver
The Lanzarote Hurdle
Run 3 weeks ago at Kempton
Is a significant trial race for this
The 2017 2018 2019 winners
All came from that handicap
GREEN BOOK ran in that race
REE OKKA won the Lanzarote
Rejected both earlier in preview
Horses with 10st 13lbs or more
Have a poor 1-58 record in this
CALL ME LORD has 11st 6lbs
That weight could be a problem
But there is a case to overlook it
The topweight who has no hope
Rated 6lbs higher than the rest
Allows this horse a lighter weight
And he is the class horse in this
With an impressive track record
He should have enough to place
But he fails this statistic
Since 2010
Handicap Hurdles
England and Ireland
Run over 2m 1f and more
Listed and Graded class
Any time of the season
Horses with over 19 hurdle runs
Carrying 11st 3lbs or more
Have a winless 0-86 record
CALL ME LORD fails this
DANS LE VENT almost does
But a 5lbs claimer must help
DANS LE VENT is a 9yo
Also comes from the Lanzarote
He caught the eye at Kempton
He is one of the more exposed
But exposed 9 years old do win
He has a bit of weight as well
If we just take English races
He fails the following angle
Since 2010
Handicap Hurdles
England races only
Run over 2m 1f and more
Listed and Graded class
Any time of the season
Horses with over 19 hurdles
Carrying 10st 12lbs or more
Have a winless 0-91 record
DANS LE VENT fails this
CALL ME LORD fails this
Turning down this pair
Because of weight/exposure
THE BRIMMING WATER a 7yo
Beaten recently in a Class 3 race
This race is 3 grades higher
That is an immediate worry
But last time felt he had excuses
Felt he was given a poor ride
And needed a faster pace there
His figures say he can win off 127
And he has a bit of momentum
If he recovers from 2 weeks ago
Split staking this
CALL ME LORD is not safe
Certainly not as the win bet
But class can get him placed
And that may be needed
If the race comes too quickly
For the main selection at 16/1
Selection
£3.50 Each Way THE BRIMMING WATER 16/1
£3.00 Place Bet CALL ME LORD 5/2 (4 Places)
Musselburgh 3.45
15/8 Highland Hunter, 9/4 The Wolf
6/1 Mighty Thunder, 6/1 Captain Cattistock
8/1 Step Back 12/1 Robin Des Foret.
Edinburgh National
3m 7f
MIGHTY THUNDER
Won this race in 2021
His runs this year are poor
I think the reason for that
Too hard a season last year
After winning this race
Second in a Midlands National
Won the Scottish National
He is a long way from that
Can't be sure when or if
He will return to his best form
But don't see evidence right now
Some dodgy staying sires here
THE WOLF sired by Kapgarde
If you ignore a hunter chase win
He has no winners past 3m 3f
His stamina far from guaranteed
ROBIN DE FORET is a 12 year old
Not ideal given he has 83 days off
Not from a safe enough sire either
STEP BACK is now 12 years old
Just 1 bad run in 14 months now
This is interesting
Go back to 2002
Handicap Chases
Run over 3m 4f and more
In Class 2 and higher
Not including cross country's
Horses aged 12 or more
Have a poor 5-232 record
Those absent over 32 days
Have a 0-136 record in them
ROBIN DE FORET fails this
STEP BACK fails this as well
The last 12yo to do it
Was Flaked Oats back in 2001
And he had 38 days absence
Both these horses had more
CAPTAIN CATTISTOCK is a 9yo
He's raced once since May 2011
Pulled up on heavy over 3m 4f
Understandable after a long break
Not the safest of profiles to be fair
But the 2018 winner was similar
Having 1 run in several months
Feel he is one or two to shortlist
HIGHLAND HUNTER the other
Second in the Welsh National
Hoping that his break of 40 days
Should be enough recovery time
Still unexposed with just 6 chases
CAPTAIN CATTISTOCK as a saver
Turns the bet into a shorter price
Maybe worth flip flopping here
Although not sure how fit he is
He only faces a very small field
Several of these might not stay
And he gets lumps of weight
13lbs and more from all others
Selection
£7.00 Win Bet CAPTAIN CATTISTOCK 5/1-6/1
£3.00 Win Bet HIGHLAND HUNTER 9/4
Leopardstown 3.50
6/4 Mt Leinster, 9/2 Exit Poll, 7/1 A Wave Of The Sea
8/1 Batcio, 8/1 Grange Walk, 8/1 R'evelyn Pleasure
10/1 Capuccimix, 16/1 Scheu Time 16/1Stansfield
Handicap Chase 2m 1f
11 Past renewals
Past history shows us
High weights underperform
Since 2010
Horses with 11st 6lbs or more
Have a 0-30 record in this race
Official Ratings of past winners
133 140 132 123 120 109
100 115 116 110 132
Horses rated 141 or more
Have a 0-16 record in this
Taking out the high weights
EXIT POLL fails these angles
A WAVE OF THE SEA does too
Prefer an unexposed horse
Horses with over 22 races
Won just 1 of the 11 renewals
They have a poor 1-52 record
As unexposed horses did best
A WAVE OF THE SEA fails this
SCHEU TIME has 44 runs now
GRANGE WALK has 30 races
BATCIO also has 30 career runs
R'EVELYN PLEASURE has 31
STANSFIELD has 22 races too
More chase runs than is ideal
10 of the last 11 winners
Had under 14 Chase runs
10 of the last 11 winners
Had under 10 Chase runs
Past winners Chase runs
5 4 4 5 2 13 32 4 5 9 4
MT LEINSTER is a match
CAPUCCIMIX is a match
He is a big horse though
And just 1 run in months
Not completing in that race
Makes me question fitness
Perhaps the Grand Annual
MT LEINSTER
Does not convince everyone
He's has not done much wrong
Leading out in front every time
He looks the strongest runner
Selection
£9.00 Win Bet MT LEINSTER 2/1-7/4
£1.00 Win Bet CAPUCCIMIX 8/1-9/1
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