Mathematician 3737
Friday March 5th

8 Previews
0 Bet Today


No Bet Today
 
 


Had an option for a bet
But it looks complicated
Decided no to stake this



Today's Best Bet


Lingfield 2.35

£6.50 Win Bet SUBLIMINAL 4/1

£3.50 Win Bet HARLOW 13/8-7/4






Today's Message

 
6 Meetings

Very heavy schedule

Only just scraped the surface
And that is with cutting corners

No time to find big priced bets
Not without taking several risks
The best outsider today is this
But not close to account strength
 
Doncaster 5.05

BARD OF BRITTANY 16/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4



Right now

Two weeks from Cheltenham

Reluctant to stake sand bets
Unless I am really confident

There are 2 all weather races
That are quite tempting today
But both do leave me queasy


Newcastle 6.15

£6 Win Bet DUKE OF FIRENZE 6/1

£4 Win Bet BUNIANN 6/4-13/8

We are betting a 12 year old
And saving on the favourite
Highly unusual for me to bet
Horses aged 12 in any race
But he is the fittest profile



My best bet

God help me

Is at Lingfield of all places

In a small 6 runner race



Lingfield 2.35

£6.50 Win Bet SUBLIMINAL 4/1

£3.50 Win Bet HARLOW 13/8-7/4


You will know my reluctance
To stake a Lingfield Friday bet

Have to consider

Is this bet too complicated ?
This is quite a weak market
Will everyone get on ?
Not so sure about that

And it we did stake this bet
We have all those track issues
The witchcraft and sorcery here

Very strange claimer

Only 6 horses

There are 2 horse in this
The 3rd and 4th favourites

Trying to win with a profile
That no horse has managed
In any claimer for many years

Betting 2 horses against them
We could get done by an outsider
That's what this track does to you

So all things considered

Not going to stake the bet




Today's Best Bet


Lingfield 2.35

£6.50 Win Bet SUBLIMINAL 4/1

£3.50 Win Bet HARLOW 13/8-7/4




Race Previews

Newbury 1.15
Fairyhouse 1.35
Lingfield 2.35
Fairyhouse 2.40
Newbury 3.35
Doncaster 5.05
Newcastle 5.45
Newcastle 6.15





Thursday's Review

Covered only 3 races yesterday
Competent symmetrical results
With a winner a loser and a place
Nothing back from Ludlows race
Time To Tinker did win at Taunton
And that meant we would not lose
Gabriel The Devil placed each way
My stats were very strong on him
So I was pleased to see him placed
The best bet though was a winner
A rare winning each way double bet
Staking £10 at SP returns us £47.83
So just over a 7/2 winner on the bet
Seeing that as bit of a bonus really
As my bet was changed last minute 
All's well that ends well on the day





PROFILES & PREVIEWS




Newbury 1.15

15/8 Herbiers, 5/2 Siroco Jo, 5/1 Saint Palais
6/1 See The Eagle Fly, 16/1 Lady De Vega
16/1 Old Friend 16/1 West On Sunset
33/1 Siempre Rapido 40/1 Salamanca School.

4yo Hurdle

HERBIERS won last time
Decent profile could win again

The race is mainly about
SIROCCO JO being able to improve
Lightly raced from Paul Nicholls
Pulled up 68 days ago on 1st UK start
He could and should improve here
But last time raises serious doubts

Happy to oppose the fillies
LADY DE VEGA one with an absence
WEST ON SUSNET the same problem
Fillies are 0-17 in this race
SEE THE EAGLE FLY another filly

HERBIERS offers the most

But in case the Nicholls horse
Shows significant improvement
Going to split stake the race

SAINT PALAIS ran well last time
Only 7 lengths behind Herbiers
He was entitled to need that run
And show get closer to him today
Which may be enough to place

Selection

£6 Win Bet HERBIERS 7/4- 2/1

£4 Win Bet SAINT PALAIS 5/4







Fairyhouse 1.35

11/8 Rambranlt'jac, 9/4 Hamundarson, 7/2 Hallowed Star
10/1 Lucky Max, 25/1 Adnap, 33/1 Name Me Famous,
33/1 Henry Star, 50/1 Boherlug, 50/1 Edmond Dantes
50/1 Gringo D'ainay, Know The Game, 66/1 Ballykilmurray
66/1 Boston Brahmin, El Nido, 66/1 Two For The Road.

Maiden Hurdle

Looks a 3 horse race

RAMBRANTLT'JAC favourite
Understandable from W P Mullins
Even with 528 days off the track

Just prefer a couple of others
Not enough superficial support
From things like sire and purchase price
 
HAMUNDARSON is tempting
Has disappointed more than once

HALLOWED STAR is an option
Too short for a each way bet
Possible saver but it is a push
Stable seem to be struggling
Going for a win bet instead

Selection

HAMUNDARSON

Win Bet 9/4 or shorter

Each Way bet 5/2 or bigger







Lingfield 2.35

11/4 Harlow, 7/2 Prismatic, 7/2 Yuften
4/1 Subliminal 13/2 Contingency Fee
10/1 Epic Challenge.

10f Claimer

YUFTEN is 10 years old
He is going up from 7f to 10f

Looked at every race
Since 2001 run over 10f +
Any time of year
Any kind of race
Horses from 7f or shorter
Aged 9 or more
Have a 0-60 record
YUFTEN fails this 0-60 angle
None like him have won

CONTINGENCY FEE is unsafe
Not for me down from 14f to 10f
EPIC CHALLENGE is beatable
Put in to be claimed for just 3k

February and March
Claiming races
Any distance
Fillies aged 4
Under 10 career starts
Have a 0-42 record in them
PRISMATIC fails this
She only has 5 career starts

Claiming races
Since 2007
Any distance
Any time of year
Fillies aged 4
Under 8 career starts
Have a 0-170 record
PRISMATIC fails this

Feel one of two will win

HARLOW 15/8-7/4

SUBLIMINAL 4/1


HARLOW is more likely to win
He is a bit on the short side
As I do want/need the saver

So flip flopping the pair

Selection

£6.50 Win Bet SUBLIMINAL 4/1

£3.50 Win Bet HARLOW 13/8-7/4






Fairyhouse 2.40

11/8 Daphne Moon, 7/2 Robyndeglory
11/2 Presenting Ana 13/2 Burnt Ash, 8/1 Dukes Mill
20/1 Call Me Merry Callaghy Rose, Ocean's Of Money
25/1 Windmill Lady, 33/1 Cronebane Gold, 50/1 Forever On Fire
50/1 Getaclan, 66/1 Pugin Hall, Sound Of Glory.

Mares Maiden Hurdle

Not many can win this
DUKES HILL looks very unsafe
OCEANS OF MONEY is unraced
Her stable runs a shorter priced horse
PRESETING ANA has 495 days absence

February and March
Mares Maiden Hurdles
Horses unraced over hurdles
Absent more than 80 days
Have a poor 0-79 record
PRESETING ANA fails this

BURNT ASH is a 6yo
Only had 1 career start before
Not the safest of profiles

Leaves 2 shorter priced horses

DAPHNE MOON
ROBYNDEGLORY


ROBYNDEGLORY is respected
But he only looks a smaller horse
DAPHNE MOON is just preferred

Selection

DAPHNE MOON 6/4

Win Bet






Newbury 3.35

7/2 Howling Milan, 4/1 Dhowin, 5/1 Present Chief
5/1 Roque It, 7/1 Neverbeen To Paris, 9/1 Outonpatrol
12/1 Imperial Knight, 16/1 Boldmere, Colonial Dreams
20/1 Iwilldoit, Regarding Ruth, 25/1 Breaking Waves
33/1 Canyon City.

3m Handicap Hurdle

The highest rated horses
Are either underaced or unfit
None of the topweights appeal

ROQUE IT has 3 hurdle runs
Wanted more for a handicap like this
Several horses have long absences

One option is a split stake race
Two horses with recent races

HOWLING MILAN a win bet
DHOWIN a place bet as well
But with 4 places available
Decided to go each way here
HOWLING MILAN is preferred
Looks well treated now off 118

Selection

HOWLING MILAN 7/2 - 4/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4







Doncaster 5.05

4/1 Heart Of A Lion, 13/2 Passing Shadow, 8/1 Kloud Gate
8/1 Spanish Jump, Stylish Dancer, 10/1 Always Resolute
10/1 Get With It, Scrutinise, 14/1 Drewmain Legend
16/1 Bard Of Brittany, 16/1 Diakosaint, 16/1 Methag
16/1 Phantomoftheoscar, 20/1 Henri Le Bon, 25/1 Daranova
33/1 Linger, The Knot Is Tied, 50/1 Dalkadam.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 3f

Haven't had enough time
To get into this race properly

Just following a couple of hunches

Doncaster
2m 3f Handicap Hurdles
Run at this time of year
Show horses under 7 years old
With under 6 hurdle starts
Have a 0-40 record in them

I'd be inclined to oppose
The very lightly raced horses

HEART OF A LION has 5 runs
Just 3 previous hurdle starts
Going to look elsewhere here
GET WITH IT has just 2 hurdle runs
He also fails this 0-40 statistic
SPANISH JUMP has 3 career runs
He faces the same 0-40 statistic
DIAKOSAINT also has this problem
PHANTOMOFTHEOSCAR fails it too

LINGER is an 8yo with an absence
SCRUTINISE a 9yo absent longer
Neither of them appealed enough
Nor did any of the other outsiders
METHAG a mare with an absence
DREWMAIN LEGEND is the same
THE KNOT IS TIED is topweight
Combined with 103 days off the track
STYLISH DANCER an underraced mare

KLOUD GATE

He could be the one
Strong chance on his old form
But 3 heavy defeats this season
Offers no guarantee of being in form
And this is not a very big horse
Not for me in a field as bit as this

Possible's

PASSING SHADOW

ALWAYS RESOLUTE

Both these could be savers

BARD OF BRITTANY

He is an outsider
Far from certain to run his race
 
But 9 days ago
He ran in a flat maiden
Where he had no chance
Ran ok and the benefit of that
Could give him some momentum
He has competitive numbers
And he just looks overpriced here

Selection

BARD OF BRITTANY 16/1

Each Way







Newcastle 5.45

 5/2 Accrington Stanley, 3/1 Attaboy Roy, 5/1 Mehmo
7/1 Marta Boy, 10/1 Alehandro, 12/1 Hope Probe
14/1 The Queens Ladies, 16/1 Red Headed Tiger
20/1 Krystal Maze, Stamford Bridge.

3yo Handicap 5f

Several have long absence
Some are also underraced

You can win these races
With absences some do it

But I would take experience
Combined with recent runs

See 3 shortlistable profiles

MEHMO
ACCRINGTON STANLEY
MARTA BOY

MEHMO has a possible flaw
He is drawn in stall 1
5f Handicaps here
With 9-10 runners since 2014
Horses drawn 1 are just 1-44

ACCRINGTON STANLEY has 1 issue
He has raced just once in 78 days
Worries me a bit having had 12 runs

MARTA BOY's profile is safer
Not sure if he needs a bit further
But he seemed to cope at Lingfield

Don't normally choose a lightweight
But in this case he is my best guess

Selection

MARTA BOY 7/1-15/2

Each Way





Newcastle 6.15

2/1 Buniann, 4/1 Raasel, 5/1 Duke Of Firenze
5/1 Mondammej, 7/1 Dapper Man,  7/1 Saluti.

5f Handicap

SALUTI has 136 days off
DAPPER MAN has 148 days off

MONDAMMEJ only has 4 runs
RAASEL only has 4 career runs

February and March
Similar 5f Handicaps 
Horses aged 4
Under 6 career starts
Running this year are 0-13

That makes it slightly easier
To go for the unsavoury bet
DUKE OF FIRENZE as a 12yo

Betting a 12yo sound repulsive
And I appreciate the commentary
That he needs a fast pace to win
And may not get that in this race

Those comments are repeated
Endless times about his running
 Virtually nobody who repeats it
Has any idea if its true or how to know
The horse has just won in a small field

DUKE OF FIRENZE
Has the fittest profile by miles

Going to split stake the race

Selection

£6 Win Bet DUKE OF FIRENZE 6/1

£4 Win Bet BUNIANN 6/4-13/8






FUTURE BETTING ANGLES


 

Cheltenham

Generic Statistics

Got these finished last night
There will be at least 22 stats
Will send them shortly enough
If I can not find any more stats





Cheltenham Handicaps

Weights are now released
So there's nothing to stop us
Can start to cover these races

 Ultima Handicap down below




I do find the best strategy
For betting at Cheltenham

Don't even think about it
Have no bets do no study

Get there fresh and hungry
With no preconceived ideas





Saturday

Newbury 1.50

Greatwood Gold Cup
 
4/1 Grand Sancy 5/1 Umbrigado 11/2 Killer Clown
7/1 Senior Citizen 8/1 The Big Bite 8/1 Pistol Whipped
11/1 Another Crick 16/1 Windsor Avenue 18/1 Capeland
20/1 Gala Ball  20/1 Barton Knoll 20/1 The Russian Doyen
25/1 Born Survivor 25/1 Gold Present

14 Declared

Not covering this today

Need a bit more time

My angle are shaping up

Towards a bet on an outsider

I have angles against a few

Umbrigado should be one I oppose

Grand Sancy still deciding about

He is between a negative and a neutral

Not keen on his profile
But his trainer has a great record in this

Want to be clear in my mind
Before I commit to any views

But right now

The most likely scenario

An each way outsider

With a saver sensible







Ante Post
 
Tuesday March 16th

Cheltenham 2.30

Ultima Handicap Chase

Handicap Chase 3m 1f

Escaria Ten 6/1 Happygolucky 6/1 Lieutenant Rocco 8/1
Remastered 10/1 Alnadam 12/1 Clondaw Castle 12/1
Coko Beach 12/1 Farclas 12/1 Sam Brown 12/1
Cloth Cap 14/1 Jerrysback 14/1 One For The Team 14/1
Milan Native 14/1 Aye Right 16/1 Run Wild Fred 16/1
Al Dancer 20/1 Cepage 20/1 Musical Slave 20/1 Ok Corral 20/1
Discordantly 20/1 Plan Of Attack 20/1 Pym 20/1 Achille 25/1
Aso 25/1 Cobra De Mai 25/1  Full Back 25/1 Crosspark 25/1
Goose Man 25/1 Hold The Note 25/1 Kiltealy Briggs 25/1
Lake View Lad 25/1 Paint The Dream 25/1 Pistol Whipped 25/1
Slate House 25/1 Snow Leopardess 25/1 Storm Control 25/1
Talkischeap 25/1 Tout Est Permis 25/1 Admiral's Secret 33/1
Beware The Bear 33/1 Choungaya 33/1 Cloudy Glen 33/1


Early thoughts

Nothing set in stone here

Going to presume that horses
Whish are rated 139 or lower
Are unlikely to get in the race
Can correct that later if wrong


Generic Statistics

Can not be 100% sure yet
Until we know who is running
And if the weights go up or not
But expecting these horses
To fail Generic Statistics

Crosspark 25/1
Paint The Dream 25/1
Lake View Lad 25/1
Cepage 20/1 
Tout Est Permis 25/1
Admiral's Secret 33/1
Hold The Note 25/1
Beware The Bear 33/1
Aso 25/1
Pym 20/1
Achille 25/1
Sam Brown 12/1
Ok Corral 20/1  
Happygolucky 6/1
Coko Beach 12/1
Lieutenant Rocco 8/1
Clondaw Castle 12/1
 
Two other horses
Who are Borderline failures
May or may not be a futures generic
 
Slate House 25/1 
Storm Control 25/1 

COKO BEACH fails 2 generics
No 6 year old has won a handicap
With more than 11st at the festival
LIEUTENANT almost fails this stat
Will do if the weights rise as well
But he is weak on another 6yo stat
CLONDAW CASTLE has topweight
Just now getting too exposed for it

HAPPYGOLUCKY is the favourite
Looks fancied and well backed early
But he fails this Generic statistic

 
Cheltenham
Handicap Chases
Run over 3m and further
Any time of year since 2007
Horses with under 10 career runs
Absent more than 77 days
Have a 0-72 record

HAPPYGOLUCKY only has 7 runs
Yet he faces 95 days off the track
The above angle is any time of year
And not just the Cheltenham festival
 
Past winners of this race
Had the following career runs

16 15 16 19 25 17 14 24 13 13 40
 
The last 11 winners of this
Had at least 13 lifetime starts
HAPPYGOLUCKY only has 7

 Raises doubts about others

ESCARIA TEN only has 8 career runs
He is one of the Gordon Elliot team
And just 3 chase starts is rather raw

PISTOL WHIPPED only has 8 runs
Having his 9th race this Saturday

KILTEALY BRIGGS has 9 races

ALNADAM has 9 lifetime starts
Could maybe forgive him that

Still very early days

Just a few of the horses

That are going to face problems

And likely to be rejected on the day
 
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