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Mathematician 1695

5 Oct 2013

No Full Bet Today

11 Previews

1 Option

4 Mentions

T o d a y 's M e s s a g e

Eleven Previews today and a good mixture to
offer some variety. It's obviously a treacherous
time of year and as usual on a Saturday I have
done some races that I shouldn't really bother
with but plenty to say and it will be interesting.

The ground is fast at some tracks soft at others
so it's a matter of adapting. Saturday Messages
are not best followed because of the nature of
the races but I feel in form and happy to play.

Today's Bet

Split Stake Bet

Half Your Stake on Each Horse

Fontwell 1.55

GUN SHY 7/1

HANNIBAL THE GREAT (Evens)

T o d a y' s O p t i o n s

There's a temptation to cover a lot of the high
profile races and do too much on a Saturday.

It is almost like a kind of Gravity that pulls me
into tough races which lengthen the message
with races that we are unlikely to get winners
in. It's a tricky balancing act between covering
several races but also finding some races that
can provide the types top of the message bets
that can realistically retain a high strike rate.

Given todays message we will do well to get
more than a couple of winners. You must not
be afraid to change any of my selections and
bet different horses if you feel you have good
reason to do just that. Nothing is cast in stone.

Mentions

Longchamp 3.15 - CIRRUS DES AIGLES

I haven't previewed this race and this is not
an official selection or option but I wondered
if we haven't missed a trick here given he is
a top class horse at 3/1 who hasn't been right
this year until he won last time out. He's just
a mention but I wonder if he should be more.
I'll have a small bet if I haven't fallen asleep.

Ascot 1.30

MASAMAH 8/1 Win Bet
STEPS 13/2 Saver

I think that MASAMAH has a beautiful profile
but we don't really know about soft ground.
Connections have raised concerns at times
about this ground. There is no evidence he
won't like it. I want to bet him and have got
a saver on STEPS for extra safety. I do not
want an account bet on a horse with ground
issues but for me the Positives outweigh the
negatives and I am betting him myself today.

Redcar 5.35

THATCHERITE 11/4

I haven't previewed this race but watching
him on Video he struck me as a Must Win
next time out. I can argue that Stall 1 may
or may not help him. Hard to say. There is
also the fact he has never ran 5f in a race
as good as this before. I still think he wins
but I won't risk him at 11/4 with the doubts.

Today's Best Bet

FONTWELL 1.55

GUN SHY 7/1

HANNIBAL THE GREAT (Evens)

Half Stakes on both horses. Unusual stake for a
best bet but my angles are pretty clear. I wasn't
completely happy to bet GUN SHY each way as
he has no hurdling form. I think the split stake is
safer. HANNIBAL THE GREAT is fancied and has
a very solid chance. I have two negatives both
fancied in the betting. GUN SHY's profile is very
strong. Best profile of the day. One of those that
has a brilliant profile but because of his career
has not had a chance to show he can improve
the record of similar types. Thats another good
reason to ditch the each way bet and have the
split stake. If the favourite wins there is no real
damage and we have a chance of a good win.

Don't expect winner after winner today. I hope
to be competitive though in most of the races.

Final Thought

Il y aura un Message dimanche

F r i d a y 's S u m m a r y

It had been a disappointing message up until my
best bet ran last night. That wasn't a big surprise
given what a difficult day it had been in the past.
I was happy that BACKDROP was the best of the
message and when the hot favourite was beaten
out of sight and we were cantering on the bridle
it looked like he was about to win easily. He was
matched at 1.14 at this stage but somehow there
was another horse he couldn't get past and what
looked a certain winner turned into a 2nd place.
Seconds after the race Betfair's forum lit up with
complaints about the jockey and the bad ride he
gave the horse. I'm not so sure it was down to a
bad ride. I suspect we were on the best horse in
a race that went tactically against us. I think we
had a good bet that went unrewarded yesterday.

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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W

A s c o t 1.30

7/1 Doc Hay, 7/1 Steps, 8/1 Rocky Ground
9/1 Noble Storm, 10/1 Free Zone, 10/1 Masamah
10/1 Medicean Man, 12/1 Eton Rifles, 12/1 New Fforest
14/1 Dinkum Diamond, 16/1 Caledonia Lady
16/1 Elusivity, 20/1 Definightly, 20/1 Lady Gibraltar
25/1 El Manati, 25/1 Judge 4n Jury, 33/1 Smart Daisy K
33/1 Take Cover.

* The Rous Stakes is a Listed race over 5f
* This race used to be run at Newmarket
* I looked at 5f Ascot races with 12-18 runners
* There were 12 winners drawn in these stalls
* 18 5 10 8 18 18 2 12 4 13 2 7
* I suppose I'd rather be high than very low
* All past winners ran within 43 days
* Since 2000 they had the following runs that year
* 8 6 6 6 4 7 16 8 9 12 12 8
* You need a fit well raced horse this season
* I don't like the following horses
* These all seem short of the required fitness
* DINKUM DIAMOND - DEFINIGHTLY
* ETON RIFLES - EL MANATI
* CALEDONIA LADY is a 4yo filly
* Only one past winner was a filly aged 4
* She had more runs that year and a more recent run
* CALEDONIA LADY came back this year after a long break
* None of her 5 runs since suggest she's fit enough
* There were 7 winning 3 year olds in this race
* None of these came from all aged handicaps
* SMART DAISY K does that and is rated too low
* NEW FFOREST does that as well
* No 3yo has won from Class 3 or lower like her
* JUDGE 4N JURY is older than the last 22 winners
* He's never won in Listed or Group Class before
* LADY GIBRALTAR comes out badly at the weights
* As a filly with no pattern form she's out
* ELUSIVITY doesn't offer me enough
* He is 0-19 racing beyond Class 3 grade
* MEDICEAN MAN has the ability and likes it here
* Not sure it's his time of year now
* I couldn't bet him from Stall 1 either
* DOC HAY won this race last year as a 5yo
* This year he is again exposed and down in trip
* No exposed horse won a 6f race last time out
* Statistically not perfect but has to be respected
* It would worry me his win last year was just 9 runners
* Twice as many this year and he is drawn in Stall 2
* That may not be the best place much as one has won
* FREE ZONE was 2nd in last years race
* There were only 9 runners last year though
* There were 4 winners aged 4 with 21 + runs like him
* They all came from Grade 1 tracks and he doesn't
* They all had at least 3 more runs that season
* They all had slightly more recent races
* FREE ZONE has never won in a field this big either
* Having Lost all 9 times in this class he has bits to prove

Shortlist

* NOBLE STORM is 7 with 5 runs this season
* My worry is whether that will be enough
* The 2008 winner was older and had 4 runs
* That tells me it can be done so I respect him

* One of the best profiles is this
* Exposed horses coming from Handicaps
* At least 8 runs that season
* Running within the past two weeks
* Not beaten more than 10 lengths last time
* Similar horses had a 6-13 record
* The 1996 2000 2002 2003 206 winners had that profile
* MASAMAH has that profile
* MASAMAH hasn't won yet after Mid August
* I'd worry about the soft ground a bit for him
* He has run well with cut though

* STEPS has a lot in his favour including the ground
* He comes from a good trial race with a good profile
* Just hard to know if he ran well enough last time
* He did finish well and this is two Grades lower

Selection

MASAMAH 8/1 Win Bet

STEPS 13/2 Saver

Redcar 1.40

2/1 Erroneous, 9/4 Alisios,
8/1 Pure Amber, 8/1 Smart Alec, 20/1 Mighty Missile
20/1 Saranta, Molly Molone, 25/1 Unfinishedbusiness
33/1 Mindblowing, 33/1 Oriental Dream, 33/1 Ryeolliean
33/1 Tears And Rain, 33/1 Twenty Roses, 50/1 Elle West
50/1 Garfunkel, 50/1 Slingsby, 100/1 Tawan.

Too many runners in this 7f maiden. The betting is
dominated by two horses both drawn far apart. We
do see winners from Stall 17 here so ERRONEOUS
can't be a draw negative but lower stalls have had
a far better record recently and ALISIOS has that.
I'm going to ignore that though. It bothers me that
ALISIOS started 66/1 for a Leicester maiden on his
last start. ERRONEOUS was only 9/1 on a Grade 1
track on his debut. I can't know enough about all
of the others but of these two I prefer ERRONEOUS.

N e w m a r k e t 1.50

5/2 Wedding Ring, 7/2 Night Song, 7/2 Oxsana
7/1 Fashion Fund, 12/1 Aqlaam Vision, 12/1 Zawiyah
14/1 Flippant, 16/1 Wedding Wish, 20/1 Amnesia
20/1 Two Smart, 33/1 Chess Valley, 33/1 Manderley
50/1 Broughtons Secret, 100/1 Modify.

This is a Fillies Trophy for 2 year olds over 7f and
very little I can say. It's a case of guessing from a
handful of obvious types. AQLAAM VISION looks
too exposed. I can take or leave NIGHT SONG as
she comes from a great stable but as yet no past
winners came from 7f conditions races. There are
just 5 renewals so I can't get excited. I would not
risk ZAWIYAH or WEDDING WISH on form so far.

* The 2010 and 2012 winners came from the same race
* WEDDING RING - OXSANA - FASHION FUND also do that
* There were 1-2-3 in that same race last time out
* FASHION FUND looks the weakest statistically
* Thats because she hasn't won yet. She's also drawn 1
* William Buick rode FASHION FUND that day in 3rd
* In Buick's column he makes an interesting statement
* He says OXSANA and FASHION FUND won't reverse form
* He is clear WEDDING RING should finish ahead of them
* Not sure I want to argue as he rode in that race
* Buick also says that NIGHT SONG is his best ride today
* With just 5 renewals I don't feel attached to my angles
* Interesting horses with 3-4 runs are 0-21 in the 5 races
* 5 winners had 1 2 5 5 5 career starts
* Perhaps those with 3-4 runs lack improvement of some
* Perhaps they lack the strength of horses with 5 runs
* Either way Buicks comments and that stat interest me
* It's a guessing race but I want to bet to the percentages

Selection - NIGHT SONG 3/1 Each Way

F o n t w e l l 1.55

2/1 Hannibal The Great, 5/2 Gate Please
4/1 Sash Of Honour, 7/1 Gun Shy, 12/1 Be Marvellous
20/1 Keppel Isle, 20/1 Mount Odell, 25/1 Supersticion
40/1 Pullmen, 100/1 Quernstone
100/1 Sylvan Legend.

* This is a 2m 4f Novice Hurdle
* I ran these through all similar races in Sept-Oct
* I found 1 Positive 2 Negatives and a mixed batch of others

* SASH OF HONOUR doesn't come out too well
* I looked at 4 year old seasonal debutants
* Since 1998 her had a 9-14 record
* Those from Bumpers were 7-67
* Those like SASH OF HONOUR from Hurdles just 2-61
* Those in that 2-61 record from a 4yo hurdle were 0-15
* SASH OF HONOUR doesn't have a strong profile

* GATE PLEASE is another that I couldn't match
* I looked at every Novice Hurdle in Sept-Oct
* Thats every single hurdle over any distance
* I looked at horses from Bumpers first time out
* Those aged 7 or more had a 0-55 record
* GATE PLEASE is an 8yo doing this
* I found 7yo's doing this in August and November
* None in Sept or October and none aged 8 either
* GATE PLEASE is statistically unsafe
* There is market confidence behind him though
* His trainer has actually done this before as well
* In 2010 she trained an 8yo bumper debutant to win
* That was Native Taipan at Ffos Las but that was in April
* Obviously he might win but his profile isn't strong

* BE MARVELLOUS - Not a good profile Not a Negative
* Would be annoying to be beaten by a horse like this

Shortlist

* HANNIBAL THE GREAT has every chance
* Nothing wrong with his profile as a Bumper debutant
* Especially one with Listed Form before
* Trainer said he was his best bumper horse last year
* There appears to be plenty of stable confidence
* I've read several comments singing the horses praises today
* Stable in Great form just one problem for me
* I have a better profile in the race

* GUN SHY comes from a Bumper last year
* I looked at 5 year olds that were doing that
* Take those that had just one previous Bumper Run
* Look at the horses that Won that Bumper as well
* There was a very strong 6-10 record
* Similar horses were 2 W W 5 W 3 W W 8 W
* GUN SHY clearly has the best profile by miles
* Of course the problem is the same old one
* We can't know if he is fit or can jump or doing his best
* Thats why I see the Split Stake bet perfect for this race
* If he wins we still have a nice winner
* The favourite would also get our money back if he doesn't

Selection

GUN SHY 6/1 + Half your stake to win

HANNIBAL THE GREAT 5/4 - Half your stake to win

A s c o t 2.05

7/2 Hot Streak, 5/1 Outer Space, 11/2 Extortionist
8/1 Fast, 9/1 Royal Mezyan, 10/1 Excel4s Beauty
12/1 Hay Chewed, 12/1 Umneyati, 14/1 Abbakova
16/1 Lady Chantilly, 25/1 Oasis Town, 50/1 Kickboxer.

* The CORNWALLIS is a Group 3 race for 2 year olds
* Ascot has 18 renewals of this race
* I will start with the Draw which is never easy here
* I looked at races with 11-12-13-14-15 runners here
* Since 2011 there were 10 of these races
* 10 winners were drawn 9 8 15 11 11 4 12 6 2 7
* You'd have to say the very low numbers struggled
* FAST has Stall 1 and that does put me off him
* I looked at 30 races here with 10 or more runners
* Horses drawn 1 were 0-27 in these 30 races
* ROYAL MEZYAN has Stall 2
* I'd have liked a better draw than that
* ROYAL MEZYAN has an 85 day absence
* The longest absent winner was 79 days
* That's not far away and he is lightly raced as well
* The Draw just undermines his chance

* Only 3 past winners came from 6f
* Horses from 6f races had a weak 3-91 record
* All 3 winners had 5 or more runs
* They were all beaten last time and had Group 1-2 form
* Horses from 6f with no Group form were 0-55
* KICKBOXER fails this
* HAY CHEWED comes from a Nursery
* All 40 horses doing that were beaten
* HAY CHEWED also has 64 days absence
* Horses absent a month or more were 2-50
* Both horses were Male and had 3-5 career starts
* HAY CHEWED is a filly and fails that stat as well
* ABBAKOVA is a filly absent 50 days
* No filly won with that absence or with as many as 6 runs
* EXCEL4S BEAUTY fails the same angles as well
* LADY CHANTILLY is a filly from 6f
* The 2004 winner was a filly coming from the same race
* She had 9 runs and LADY CHANTILLY has just 6
* Not sure that matters and I would respect her
* My only problem is he comes from a Maiden
* It took him 4 runs to win a maiden
* Horses from Maidens all had 2-3 previous runs

Possibles

* OASIS TOWN is a filly with 5 runs
* She comes from the Roseberry with just Listed form
* The 2011 winner did the same with 8 runs
* Fillies score well in this race
* Most had a bit more experience but I wouldn't rule her out
* She has a lot of work to do on the numbers though

* OUTER SPACE has only had 1 career start
* In the last 15 years no horse tried to win this with 1 run
* That makes him impossible to assess
* The issue is do we really want 1 run in October
* Especially when the ground's on the soft side
* I see him as a saver from a powerful stable

* UMNEYATI is a filly with 5 runs
* She comes from the Roseberry with just Listed form
* The 2006 and 2011 winners came from this race
* Both were fillies with 6 and 8 runs
* UMNEYATI could go well in this
* I'd prefer to see a Racing Post Rating of 100 + though
* UMNEYATI doesn't have that

* HOT STREAK comes from a 6f race
* He is almost the right type but has 4 runs rather than 5
* I can overlook that but there is a less predictable issue
* Running 2 weeks ago not sure how that will affect him

* EXTORTIONIST comes from a good trial race
* The 1994 1995 and 2005 winners were similar
* Those 3 winners all had 6 career starts
* EXTORTIONIST has 5 but must be shortlisted
* He doesn't want the ground too soft though
* Best profile for me so gets benefit of the doubt

Selection

I am staking this race to #10 Stakes
Having 2 Savers and a main bet

#6 Win EXTORTIONIST 5/1

#2 Win OUTER SPACE 11/2

#2 Win HOT STREAK 9/2

R e d c a r 2.15

6/1 Ingleby Angel, 7/1 No Dominion, 8/1 Sound Advice
10/1 Swiftly Done, 12/1 Surround Sound, 14/1 Black Rider
14/1 Jo4burg 14/1 Kiwi Bay, Lilac Lace, 14/1 Toto Skyllachy
16/1 Broctune Papa Gio, Eeny Mac, 16/1 Hakuna Matata
16/1 Snooky, 16/1 Steelriver, 20/1 Copperwood
20/1 Victoire De Lyphar, 33/1 Jonny Lesters Hair.

This is quite a ridiculous 8f handicap but I have to
mention the Draw here with 19 runners taking part.

* I looked at 8f handicaps here with 10 + runners
* Since 2011 there were 21 of these races
* Here were the winning Stalls
* 9 6 1 4 11 5 7 1 2 10 6 12 12 4 8 2 2 11 1 7 6
* Horses drawn 13 or more are 0-53 in these races
* I'd avoid the higher drawn horses including these
* Ingleby Angel - Lilac Lace - Snooky - Kiwi Bay
* Jonny Lesters Hair - Steelriver - Black Rider
* I've taken out a few more I don't fancy
* Going for a speculative forecast
* HAKUNA MATATA - NO DOMINION - JO4BURG
* SWIFTLY DONE - SOUND ADVICE

A s c o t 2.40

3/1 Secret Number, 100/30 Royal Empire
7/2 Gatewood, 5/1 Gospel Choir, 8/1 Mijhaar
10/1 Hajras, 12/1 Repeater.

I've never liked the Cumberland Lodge statistically
so not bothered about this race. SECRET NUMBER
ran well in the St Leger. I said before the race that
he was the least likely to stay and to finish under 4
lengths behind the winner was a good run. I'd give
him a good chance here as the 2003 winner came
from the St Leger to show it has been done. There
are many imponderables in this race and one has
to be ROYAL EMPIRE being his stablemate. There
shouldn't be much between them. I'd rather have
one of those than GATEWOOD who has raced just
once since April or HAJRAS with just one race this
season. I do not fancy REPEATER either. MIJHAAR
has a lot to prove on current form and fitness. I'm
wary of GOSPEL CHOIR but he has fewer runs this
year than the Godolphin pair and nothing like the
backclass and I would prefer both ROYAL EMPIRE
and SECRET NUMBER in a poor race for angles.

Selection - SECRET NUMBER 4/1

Newmarket 3.35

11/4 Johann Strauss, 7/2 Venezia, 15/2 Battersea
15/2 Seagull Star, 8/1 Protected, 9/1 Dance Of Heroes
11/1 Mountain Lion, Wannabe Yours, 16/1 Indus River
25/1 Lobster Pot, 25/1 Rasameel, 25/1 Worthy Spirit
40/1 Excellent Royale, 50/1 Clodoaldo, 50/1 Lucky Jim.

This is a Mile maiden for 2 year olds. You can bet
your bottom dollar JOHANN STRAUSS is a serious
horse with a name and entries that he has but I'd
have expected a shorter price if he was expected
to be 100% straight. Aidan O'Brien tends to leave a
lot of condition on 2 year olds so they improve lots
as they run. They are rarely straight first time and
as this race has always gone to a once raced type
from 3 renewals I reject him. DANCE OF HEROES
has stall 1 and as he is unraced wouldn't appeal.
BATTERSEA unraced drawn 2 is also overlooked.
With all 3 past winners having one career start I
would see VENEZIA and MOUNTAIN LION as safer.

Selection

MOUNTAIN LION 6/1 Win Bet
VENEZIA 3/1 Saver Bet

A s c o t 3.50

7/1 Ascription, 7/1 Wentworth, 8/1 Big Johnny D
8/1 Redvers, 10/1 Loving Spirit, 10/1 Magic City
11/1 Bertiewhittle, 12/1 Sirius Prospect, 14/1 Anaconda
14/1 Pastoral Player, Es Que Love, 16/1 Heaven4s Guest
20/1 Arnold Lane, 20/1 Pied A Terre, 25/1 Glen Moss
25/1 Pacific Heights, 25/1 Royal Rock
25/1 Shamaal Nibras.

This is a 7f handicap for horses rated 0-109 and just
not my sort of race. I just don't seem to get enough
winners in these races. I can produce a convincing
angle about several but I don't usually find the right
one. Only a few quick notes about this nasty race.

* Ascot has had 16 renewals of this race
* There are 64 similar races in September and October
* 15 of these winners were 3 year olds
* They had 4 6 10 8 12 14 8 3 10 6 9 4 7 13 12 runs
* The 15 winners aged 3 had these official ratings
* 95 86 95 93 87 93 90 93 95 87 84 102 90 85 97
* No 3yo has won with a rating of more than 102
* I'm against certain types from Pattern races
* SIRIUS PROSPECT - PASTORAL PLAYER
* SHAMAAL NIBRAS is absent too long
* ANACONDA - I don't want a seasonal debutant
* The above horses would be my negatives
* Gets riskier from here
* ASCRIPTION - Not my choice given his weight
* BIG JOHNNY D - I wanted more runs this season
* MAGIC CITY - Not convinced this C+D will suit
* ES QUE LOVE - Not off his current mark
* PIED A TERRE - I can't match him to a winner

Shortlist

REDVERS - BERTIEWHITTLE
HEAVEN4S GUEST - LOVING SPIRIT

A s c o t 4.25

3/1 Nargys, 7/2 Enrol, 7/1 Switcher
9/1 Tantshi, 9/1 Winter4s Night, 10/1 Ghanaian
10/1 Melbourne Memories, 14/1 Maid A Million
25/1 I4m So Glad, 25/1 Valais Girl.

* The October Stakes is a 7f Listed race for fillies
* There are some strong angles in this race
* Every past winner were 3 year olds
* The following horses are aged 4 or more and unsafe
* WINTER4S NIGHT - SWITCHER - I4M SO GLAD -ENROL
* Past winners had 6-11-8-5-8-3-7-5-9-8-7-6 previous races
* They all had under 12 career runs
* I4M SO GLAD - WINTER4S NIGHT
* MAID A MILLION - SWITCHER fail that
* No past winner lost by more than 10 lengths last time
* SWITCHER and VALAIS GIRL fail that
* No past winners had 1-2-3 runs this season
* VALAIS GIRL - WINTER4S NIGHT fail that
* All past winners came from Class 3 or higher
* I4M SO GLAD fails that
* Horses that won last time out are 0-23 in this race
* Thats probably to do with the Penalty structure here
* NARGYS won last time out and has a penalty
* TANTSHI won last time as well
* All past winners had only 1 or 2 career wins
* ENROL- WINTER4S NIGHT have 3 wins
* MELBOURNE MEMORIES - TANTSHI also have 3 wins
* GHANAIAN passes main angles but has ground issues
* The best profile doesn't run (Indignant)
* I have to go with a flawed alternative

Selection

TANTSHI 10/1 Win Bet
GHANAIAN 8/1 Win Bet

N e w m a r k e t 4.45

5/1 Mince, 6/1 The Gold Cheongsam
6/1 Winning Express, 7/1 Gracia Directa, 8/1 Minalisa
10/1 Angels Will Fall, 10/1 Hopes N Dreams
10/1 Midnight Flower, 12/1 Miss Lahar, 16/1 Jubilante
16/1 Reqaaba, 20/1 La Fortunata, 20/1 Maid A Million
25/1 Links Drive Lady, 33/1 Finesse.

* This is a Listed race over 6f for all aged fillies
* There are 10 past renewals of this race
* No winners were aged 6 or more
* No past winners had 21 or more career runs
* Every winner had at least 4 runs that season
* Every winner came from a Grade 1 track
* Every winner came from at least a Class 2 race
* None of the winners came from a 5f race
* No winners came from 3yo handicaps

* If these angles work out then the following are wrong
* MINALISA - HOPES N DREAMS - ANGELS WILL FALL
* MIDNIGHT FLOWER - MISS LAHAR -FINESSE -JUBILANTE
* LA FORTUNATA - LINKS DRIVE LADY -MAID A MILLION
* 3 year olds from Handicaps were just 1-42
* That winner was different from REQAABA

Shortlist

* THE GOLD CHEONGSAM is 3 with an absence
* She is trying to do the same as the 2007 winner
* She came from the Oak Tree Stakes with 9 runs
* THE GOLD CHEONGSAM does the same with 12
* Will those extra 3 runs leave her vulnerable
* The drying ground will be in her favour though

* GRACIA DIRECTA - Hard to read foreign raider
* Just 1 winner older than 4 and she was lighter raced
* She should go close if the ground isn't too fast

* MINCE is a 4yo with 17 runs
* Horses aged 4 have a 2-32 record
* I looked at those from 6f Pattern races
* Those with 15 or more runs were 1-8
* MINCE has enough to be shortlisted
* She hasn't yet recaptured her 3yo form
* She hasn't been fit enough to do that yet
* He recent Ratings suggest she isn't far away
* Absent 64 days before her last run was a fair excuse

* WINNING EXPRESS is 3 and down in trip
* There were 5 winners with this profile
* The 2009 winner did it with 9 runs
* WINNING EXPRESS has 8 runs
* The 2010 winner had this profile with 8 runs
* She also came from the same trial race
* WINNING EXPRESS has the safest profile
* The question is will 6f suit her as much as 7f

Selection

WINNING EXPRESS 4/1 Win Bet
MINCE 7/2 Saver Bet

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