Mathematician Betting Full Message For Nov 7th 2014

Mathematician 2046
Thursday November 6th

0 Account Bet

9 Race Discussed

1 Selection

5 Profiles/Preview Selection

Todays Editorial

It is mainly a National Hunt message on a cold day
as it will be tomorrow. I don't plan a large message
tomorrow. It will be summarised as once this effort
goes out I want to do one or two Saturday races to
get a head start including the November Handicap.

Be careful with my National Hunt Selections today.
Some are in handicaps hurdles and It is very early
to be messing around in those races. They are not
strong selections. I have just followed the angles
in a few races and ended up where they led me so
trust me it's a low staking message to play around
with and one I wouldn't want to mislead you about.

This Thursday has always been a day where there
we have difficult tracks and scrappy cards and not
one I feel I can do much with. Therefore I am going
to suggest one small bet and leave it at that today.

T o d a y 's B e t t i n g M e n u

1 Top of the Message Bet

Wolverhampton 6.40

Memoria 4/1

Each Way

Profiles and Preview Selections

Towcester 1.10 - Agent Fedora 7/1 Each Way
Towcester 1.10 - Annaroe 8/1 Saver

Towcester 2.40 - Malibu Sun 4/1 Win Bet
Towcester 2.40 - Cove 7/1 Saver

Fakenham 2.50 - That's My Rabbit 5/1 Win Bet

Towcester 3.10 - Hannah Just Hannah 6/1 Each Way

Wolverhampton 6.40 - Memoria 4/1 Each Way

M o n d a y s S u m m a r y

There were two main bets yesterday with the
only other selection placed each way. We had
a winner and loser from the two bets. Whilst I
fancied Hazelrigg it was no real surprise that
he failed. Not one of my favourite course and
distances and I am wary about any selections
I give there. Delighted that SYTBBA won at 5/1
as the second bet in the message. He made it
a good day from a limited number of previews.

P r o f i l e s @ P r e v i e w s

T h u r l e s 12.55

4/1 Old Castletown, 4/1 Saltmills Blackie
9/2 Once And Always, 5/1 Like It A Lot, 5/1 The Doorman
14/1 Close One, 14/1 Company Coming
16/1 Magical Moon, 20/1 Marmaladeskies
20/1 What About Harry, 25/1 Are You Listening.

* This is a Beginners Chase over 2m 6f
* I looked at horses from recent hurdle races
* Those that came over 2m 4f or shorter last time are 0-46
* OLD CASTLETOWN fails this statistic
* From a 2m race I would oppose him
* LIKE IT A LOT also fails this angle
* SALTMILLS BLACKIE also fails this angle
* The above pair only just fail it

Obviously lots of known unknowns like how well
many of these came jump and how fit they are as
well. The interesting profile is ONCE AND ALWAYS
as a 6yo debutant from a handicap hurdle.

OLD CASTLETOWN - Negative 4/1

ONCE AND ALWAYS - Positive 11/2

Towcester 1.10 - Agent Fedora 7/1 Each Way
Towcester 1.10 - Annaroe 8/1 Saver

T o w c e s t e r 1.10

5/2 Boherna Lady, 11/2 Combustible Kate
6/1 Annaroe, 13/2 The Selector, 7/1 Agent Fedora
11/1 Do Be Dashing, Whichever, 14/1 Kentford Heiress
14/1 Miss Duffy, 16/1 Lady Garvagh, 20/1 Inside Out
25/1 Offherocker.

* This is a 2m 5f Handicap Hurdle
* There are only 20 of these races in November
* Horses aged 5-6-7 dominate these races
* Horses aged 4 have struggled in these 20 races
* Only 1 has won from 28 that tried
* That 4yo winner had a very good recent run
* LADY GARVAGH looks too inexperienced as a 4yo
* INSIDE OUT is wrong as a 4yo with an absence
* KENTFORD HEIRESS is rejected for similar reasons
* DO BE DASHING is the wrong kind of debutant
* MISS DUFFY is also the wrong kind of debutant
* No seasonal debutant won aged 8
* WHICHEVER fails that and may not stay
* Horses by Where or When are 0-29 at 2m 5f +
* THE SELECTOR is 5 from a recent handicap hurdle
* Horses aged 5 doing this were 2-24
* Both winners came from Novice Handicaps
* Those that did not were 0-18
* THE SELECTOR fails this 0-18 statistic
* With a 0-11 Hurdles record she may find 1 too good
* COMBUSTIBLE KATE is an 8yo with 22 hurdle runs
* Horses aged 8 or more were only 1-32
* COMBUSTIBLE KATE also has 22 hurdle starts
* Horses with 15 or more hurdle runs were 1-39
* Clearly a bit too old and a bit exposed
* The 1 winner with 15 + hurdle runs won this last year
* She was a 7yo with 28 hurdle runs
* It's not a big leap to accept an 8yo
* You can see the case for her with a recent win
* Especially on the track so she is respected
* She looks a small horse to me
* Maybe that's why she's only won a 5 runner race
* She is 0-21 in fields of 6 or more
* The big field puts me off COMBUSTIBLE KATE

Shortlist

* BOHERNA LADY won a recent handicap hurdle
* 3 horses had her profile finishing 2nd 8th 9th
* Good chance but she has 15 hurdle runs already
* 18 of the 20 winners had 12 or fewer

* ANNAROE is 5 from a recent Novice handicap hurdle
* Her profile is fine and shortlisted
* Showed her 1st piece of decent form last time out

* AGENT FEDORA is 6 from a recent handicap hurdle
* Beaten a fair way last time and 1 run this season
* I found a reasonably similar winner (Emmaslegend)

Selection

AGENT FEDORA 8/1 Each Way

ANNAROE 8/1 Saver

T h u r l e s 1.25

No idea what wins this Irish 3m handicap chase
I just had a view about the two market leaders
EMBRACING CHANGE appeals more than FEDERICI

T o w c e s t e r 1.40

10/11 Come On Laurie, 5/1 Gamain, 7/1 Mogestic
8/1 Ozzy Thomas, 9/1 Vinegar Hill, 10/1 Seacon Beg
16/1 De Kerry Man, 25/1 Urban Storm, 50/1 Smart Music
100/1 Dome Patrol.

This is a 2m 5f Novice Hurdle

I don't fancy OZZY THOMAS and SEACON BEG is
not like a winner. VINEGAR HILL has a chance but
will need others to disappoint. COME ON LAURIE
should win this with a good profile but he is odds
on and I can't get very excited about a 1/2 win bet.

* GAMAIN - Horses with his exact profile were 1-16
* MOGESTIC - Horses with his exact profile were 1-3
* The above pair do offer some resistance
* Maybe the Place Bet is the right bet
* MOGESTIC to place 6/4

T o w c e s t e r 2.10

5/2 Star Presenter, 7/2 Keychain
4/1 Buddy Love, 8/1 Dance Floor King
8/1 Midnight Thomas, 8/1 Rebel High
12/1 Pembroke House, 20/1 Khazium.

This is a 2m Novice Handicap Chase
My Angles see weakness in these areas
KHAZIUM - 5 year olds with absences are weak
MIDNIGHT THOMAS - Needed a better last run for 5yo
REBEL HIGH - Age is an issue as is his last run
PEMBROKE HOUSE - Weight an issue first time out
These 4 negatives are not enough really
KEYCHAIN is a 4 year old
There are 4yo winners from handicap hurdles
There are 4yo winners from Novice Chases
None like KEYCHAIN from handicap chases
Only 4 tried though so hardly a good angle
KEYCHAIN is not like a winner though
I have to guess here

I am shortlisting 3 horses

BUDDY LOVE
STAR PRESENTER
DANCE FLOOR KING

T o w c e s t e r 2.40

3/1 Orby´s Man, 5/1 Malibu Sun, 13/2 Decoy
8/1 Cove, 9/1 Rendezvous Peak, 10/1 Malibu Rock
11/1 Mister Newby, 14/1 Ballyheigue Bay
16/1 Sunny Ledgend.

* This is a 2m 5f Handicap Hurdle
* November has 150 similar races
* ORBY´S MAN comes from a recent Novice Hurdle
* I looked at 5 year olds doing this
* Coming from a Novice Hurdle in the last 100 days
* There was a very weak 1-58 with 5yo's doing this
* That winner won this race in 2010 (Mister Hyde)
* He had 4 hurdle runs and ran well 7 days beforehand
* ORBY´S MAN only has 2 runs and achieved less
* My angles say oppose ORBY´S MAN
* BALLYHEIGUE BAY is also wrong from a Novice Hdle
* RENDEZVOUS PEAK looks unsafe
* No 5yo has won from a maiden hurdle last year
* DECOY is 8 and has 32 hurdle runs
* I looked at horses aged 8 + with 21 or more hurdle runs
* Almost all these winners ran within 3 weeks
* Those that didn't were only 1-34
* That winner only won a Class G at Ludlow
* DECOY's absence is a bit longer than ideal
* MISTER NEWBY - No 8yo won with his profile
* SUNNY LEDGEND - Not first choice as 9yo debutant
* MALIBU ROCK - 6yo from maiden hurdle last year
* 1 winner did that (Richards Sundance)
* He had 5 hurdle runs MALIBU ROCK has just 3
* Ropey profile and not quite right

Possibles

* COVE - Has a chance

* MALIBU SUN - Neutral profile first time out from Chase

Selection

MALIBU SUN 4/1 Win Bet

COVE 7/1 Saver Bet

F a k e n h a m 2.50

7/4 Prouts Pub, 2/1 Nicolas Chauvin
7/2 Thats My Rabbit, 7/1 Apterix, 25/1 Diego Suarez
25/1 Sir Note.

* This is a 2m maiden hurdle
* My angles seem quite clear but I do have trust issues
* They point me towards THATS MY RABBIT
* He has no hurdle form and is weak in the market
* A stable that can never be read properly he is risky

* Horses from Bumpers this season do win
* They all ran within 4 weeks though
* Those that did not were 0-30
* NICOLAS CHAUVIN absent 59 day fails that
* I looked at 5 year olds from maiden hurdles
* They have a surprising 0-40 record
* They win at other trips but are 0-40 in 2m races
* PROUTS PUB fails this angle

* THATS MY RABBIT had the best profile
* Horses aged 5
* Winning a Bumper last time out
* Absent more than 5 months
* 3 Previous Bumper runs
* Horses with this profile were W W
* THATS MY RABBIT comes out best

Selection

THATS MY RABBIT 7/2

Win Bet

T o w c e s t e r 3.10

11/8 Hurricane´s Girl, 4/1 Leaderofthedance
5/1 Gabriella Rose, 5/1 Hannah Just Hannah
12/1 Minnie Milan, 12/1 Rose Of The World
16/1 Miss Sassypants, 25/1 All Riled Up
25/1 Surf In September, 40/1 Dawnieriver
40/1 Gwendoliner, 50/1 Pattara, 100/1 My Treasure.

* This is a Mares Maiden Hurdle over 2m

Not strong views here. I don't have serious problems
with HURRICANE´S GIRL or LEADEROFTHEDANCE
much as both are lightly raced and this has been the
sort of race in the past where more experienced types
have done best. My angles say horses with one - two
career starts are just 1-65 with that winner (Down Ace)
taking this race last year after a win. If I follow this stat
I should oppose the two market leaders. I should also
ignore GABRIELLA ROSE on that angle and I was not
looking for a 4 year old from a bumper anyway on this
track. HANNAH JUST HANNAH is from unfashionable
connections but has hurdles form and that recent run
and that counts for plenty on a stiff demanding track.

Selection

HANNAH JUST HANNAH 7/1

Each Way

W o l v e r h a m p t o n 6.40

6/4 Ghany, 3/1 Jacqueline Jouliac, 4/1 Scarlet Sash
5/1 Memoria, 10/1 Synaesthesia, 33/1 Arsenale
33/1 The French Grey, 33/1 Undulate, 66/1 Shanghai Sunrise
100/1 Hidden Ambition, 150/1 Bahama Dancer.

* This is a maiden fillies race over a mile
* Hardly any of these fillies races in November
* We could take all 8f maidens for every sex
* It wouldn't be safe to do that but one stat stood out
* Horses dropping down from 12f to 8f were 0-37
* GHANY fails that 0-37 stat and I'd avoid him
*This could well be a 4 horse race
* I'd avoid the favourite with an e/w alternative
* MEMORIA is my choice each way

Selection

MEMORIA 4/1

Each Way

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