Mathematician 1863
No Main Account bet
3 Optional Account bets
13 Previews
It is Scottish National day today and that race is the
longest preview in a message where I have covered
13 races in total. Not all these races are suitable and
I have added a few of the higher prestige races just
because it is a Saturday. It gets a bit frustrating that
in April a lot of races come down to only guesswork
as fitness is not known. I've done more at Newbury
than anywhere else. Thirsk is frightening. This track
can be a theatre of broken dreams and I am highly
cautious about having strong bets there. Overall I've
done what I can and the strongest bets are below.
3 Optional Account Bets
Newbury 1.20
MUTAKAYYEF 11/10
Win Bet
Navan 2.00
BATTLEROFTHEBOYNE 13/2
Each Way
Ayr 3.50
ROALCO DE FARGES 12/1 Win Bet
TRUSTAN TIMES 16/1 Win Bet
I work every Saturday and I can honestly say this day
last year was the worst Saturday I can remember as I
gave two bets that both lost. It was a big mistake that
it took me some time to get over. These two bets were
from the same stable and I hadn't known that the yard
were behind schedule. It was a very bad day. I wince
now when I think about it. Not knowing the fitness of
so many horses in April can force you to take chances
and today is no different. I do like the symmetry today
with 3 bets - One short, one medium and a big price.
MUTAKAYYEF 11/10
I have included him as a short priced horse much as
there was no need to really. I think he should win for
reasons given later on but this one's a bit unnecessary.
BATTLEROFTHEBOYNE 13/2
I won't pretend I know all I need to know about a 23
runner Irish Handicap but I loved his profile and his
last run on video. I can knock a few out. I don't want
to kid anyone that I have sorted this race out to the
acceptable level but I came away from this race just
thinking I have to bet him. Half of me thinks this is
a ridiculous bet. The other half a brilliant one and if
you watch the video of his last run and consider the
drop in class and his backclass you may well feel the
itch I had to bet him. I think he is my best bet.
ROALCO DE FARGES 12/1
TRUSTAN TIMES 16/1
I have done a lot of work in the Scottish National so
I feel strong about the race and don't think I will be
far away. I could have made this the main but it is
a huge field and Roalco De Farges is tipped up in so
many places that I decided not to bother with it.
F r i d a y 's S u m m a r y
Average day yesterday in a shortish message. There
were six previews but ignoring Taradrewe who won
not reaching the desired price the remaining 5 races
produced a L P L L W record with just Lucky Beggar
the only winner at 5/1. I decided Newbury was better
left to the bottom of the message. Instead I went for
a bet with 2 horses on the Optional Account that we
combined in singles and an each way double. They
finished 2nd and 3rd so we lost the singles but got a
bit back from the double. Made a small loss on that
bet but considering both horses lost we at least had
something back for the trouble. With hindsight if we
had just gone with an each way double then money
would have been made. One of those days we had
to avoid unnecessary risks and stake well. Overall
there was no real damage but it wasn't impressive.
P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S
N e w b u r y 1.20
5/4 Mutakayyef, 5/1 Brown Diamond, 5/1 Dursey Island
8/1 Villainous, 14/1 Hoy Hoy, 14/1 Isabella Bird, 14/1 Matalleb
20/1 Elite Force, 20/1 Hanno, 33/1 Sleeper, 50/1 I Am Not Here
50/1 Inspector Norse, 50/1 Silver Duke, 50/1 Triple Chief
100/1 Leftrightleftright.
* This is a 3yo maiden over a mile
* There are just 5 horses under 33/1 on Betfair
* At least of these 5 are badly drawn
* I should mention the Draw bias here
* Look at Newbury 8f races with between 10 and 20 runners
* Since 2011 there have been 20 of these races
* Horses drawn 12 or higher are 0-52
* DURSEY ISLAND is drawn badly in Stall 15
* ISABELLA BIRD is drawn badly in Stall 15
* VILLAINOUS is drawn 12 which is higher than ideal
* I should fail him on his draw but the stable are too red hot
* BROWN DIAMOND is one of the big 5 runners
* Not overkeen she is a filly drawn 1
* Look at the 20 races since 2011 with 10-20 runners
* These were the winning draws of the 20 winners
* 4 6 6 6 9 5 5 1 11 4 10 3 4 4 8 8 6 8 8 7
* Horses drawn 1 or 2 were just 1-39
* Middle Drawn horses had a far better record
* BROWN DIAMOND doesn't interest me enough drawn 1
* MATALLEB is unraced from a red hot stable
* He is in the same ownership as the favourite
* The stable jockey has chosen MUTAKAYYEF
* MUTAKAYYEF has a good draw (11) and looks the one
* VILLAINOUS from Gosden's is a Threat
* William Buick has said he may not beat the experience ones
* He states he wouldn't be surprised if others were more streetwise
Selection
MUTAKAYYEF 11/10
Win Bet
A y r 1.30
I have tried to make progress in this handicap hurdle but I
keep running into dead ends. Statistically I should oppose
the 4 year old Aalim. Not keen on his profile but I couldn't
make enough progress to develop the race beyond that. I
think the best option rather than throw hopeful darts at the
race is to oppose 4yo Aalim in a match bet with Silsol.
Selection
Match Bet
SILSOL to beat Aalim 4/5
N e w b u r y 1.50
7/2 Astonishing, 4/1 Mutashaded, 9/2 Noble Mission
5/1 Pether4s Moon, 8/1 Cubanita, 8/1 Khione
12/1 Quiz Mistress, 20/1 Cocktail Queen, 25/1 Nearly Caught
25/1 Rawaki.
* The John Porter is a Group race over 12f
* Unusual race tis year with 5 of the 10 runners Female
* No Female has won this race in recent times (0-8)
* Now with half the field female they have their best chance
* I know the least experienced winner had 5 runs
* MUTASHADED only has 3 runs which is a worry
* 22 of the last 24 winners had Group Class Form
* Last years winner was one of 2 that did not have that
* ASTONISHING doesn't have that yet is favourite
* She is also a 4yo filly first time out
* Hard to read with so few fillies aged 4 running
* PETHER4S MOON also lacks an Group form so far
* NOBLE MISSION was 3rd in last years race
* He didn't really see the trip out and this 12f stretches him
* He was only beaten half a length though and is a player
* The St Simon Stakes at Newbury is the best trial
* 1993 1995 1997 2003 2004 2006 2010 winners came from there
* QUIZ MISTRESS and CUBANITA both do this
* They are females though and none of those have won
* This is wide open this year and unlike any past renewals
* Statistically I should avoid MUTASHADED and ASTONISHING
* Statistically I should avoid PETHER4S MOON as well
* I think a split stake bet will give me more safety which I need
* NOBLE MISSION placed last year is worth considering to place
* CUBANITA , QUIZ MISTRESS and KHIONE are potential win bets
Selection
Split Stake Bet
CUBANITA 10/1 Win Bet
NOBLE MISSION 10/11 Place Bet
N a v a n 2.00
* An Irish 23 runner handicap !!
* I just had a look at the match bet here
* They have matched Stall 1 against Stall 23
* PEGGY4S LEG is drawn 1
* BEAU SATCHEL is drawn 23
* I had a look at every Course and Distance race
* Both horses have horrible draws
* None have won in races with 12 + runners since 2009
* I came away not being able to split them on the draw
* I did feel both had to be opposed though
* I am going to take a chance on one here
* Obviously I can't know enough about the race
* BATTLEROFTHEBOYNE each way at 8/1 is my Punt
* I like his draw in Stall 10
* He is by Majestic Missile who has little stamina
* He may not have stayed 7f in soft ground last time
* He is after all 0-11 when running over 6.5f or more
* BATTLEROFTHEBOYNE has a handicap mark of 70
* His task today is to beat a 0-69 rated field
* This horse was rated 90 a year ago
* He has significant backclass and looks well treated
* He had a good seasonal debut over 7f when 5th
* He Led that day and was 3 lengths clear by halfway
* Faded late as fitness and stamina may have told
* Big drop in class I wont be shocked if he wins
Selection
BATTLEROFTHEBOYNE 13/2
Each Way
A y r 2.05
6/4 Valdez, 2/1 Eduard, 4/1 Miley Shah
6/1 Aibrean, 20/1 Reaping The Reward.
This is a 2m 4f Novice Chase. It is a Pattern Class race and
dominated by VALDEZ and EDUARD. I did consider both of
the other horses. MILEY SHAH hasn't been a fluent jumper
and lacks any Graded chase form. AIBREAN is a mare that
has just pulled up. I feel it's a match. Statistically at almost
every test it feels VALDEZ has a little edge. He has 1 more
chase run than EDUARD which must help. He also has one
more run this season. He is a year old and comes from the
better stable. VALDEZ has that bit more backclass as well.
If you think about it every recent winner came from Listed
or Graded races which VALDEZ does but EDUARD does not.
* VALDEZ has a much better profile than EDUARD
* VALDEZ does have a stamina doubt though
* I will give him the benefit of the doubt in a small field
Selection
VALDEZ 11/10
T h i r s k 2.15
4/1 Klynch, 8/1 Dartrix, 8/1 Severiano, 8/1 Thatcherite
9/1 Kylladdie, 10/1 Go Go Green, 11/1 Sunny Side Up
12/1 Sunrise Dance, 12/1 Teetotal, 14/1 Holy Angel
14/1 My Name Is Rio, 16/1 Delores Rocket, 16/1 Dream Ally
16/1 Lucky Lodge, 20/1 Clubland.
* This is a big field 6f handicap
* Thirsk has 7 renewals of this race
* Just thought the age statistics were interesting
* Horses aged 4 are 0-33 in this race
* Dream Ally - My Name Is Rio- Delores Rocket fail this
* Severiano - Lucky Lodge - Teetotal also fail this
* 4 year olds are fine at other tracks and win plenty
* Thirsk is quite a unique track though and none have won here
* In fact it is the older horses that have dominated
* Horses aged 7 and 8 are 6-15 in this race
* That could make me start to fancy KLYNCH an 8 year old
* He won a 6f handicap last time out
* I looked at 174 similar races elsewhere
* I looked at horses aged 8 or more
* Those winning 6f handicaps last time
* Running within 2 weeks
* There was a 4-11 record with these horses
I feel I can comfortably go with KLYNCH as a positive
but under no illusion this is a pig of a track at times as
the last 4 winners of this at all 14/1 and more illustrate.
A saver is an option. The draw puts me off Thatcherite
but DARTRIX has to be considered as despite being a
5yo mare seasonal debutant his trainer won this race
in 2010 with an identical type so I have to respect her.
I would also respect the well drawn Kylladdie as well.
KLYNCH seems a reasonable choice but 11/4 is shorter
than I wanted or expected. This could have been one
of the best bets today each way had he been 4/1 but I
just think 5/2 is the right price for his decent profile.
Selection
KLYNCH 5/2
Win Bet
N e w b u r y 2.20
5/2 Al Thakhira, 5/1 Coral Mist, 5/1 Joyeuse, 7/1 Dutch Courage
10/1 Dutch Romance, 10/1 Valonia, 12/1 J Wonder
14/1 Beldale Memory 14/1 Lady Lara, 20/1 Manderley
33/1 Stealth Missile, 50/1 Alys Love.
The Fred Darling is a classic trial and a race best suited
to those that get information. Not sure I can help much.
* No winners came from Nurseries
* You don't really want a horse who has ever run in Nurseries
* DUTCH COURAGE has this problem
* J WONDER also has previous Nursery form
* BELDALE MEMORY - Not from a 5f race
* DUTCH ROMANCE - Statistically fine but wants softer ground
* LADY LARA - ALYS LOVE from small stables are hard to like
* MANDERLEY - I can't bet a maiden after 5 runs
* I think one of 4 should win
* JOYEUSE - Statistically fine but has to prove she stays
* Not convinced about a horse from Stall 1 either
* AL THAKHIRA is the top rated horse in the race
* Not overkeen on her draw in stall 12 of 12
* Not happy she is only a small horse as well
* I'd just worry others had more scope than her
* VALONIA has to be considered if her trainer has her fit
* Behind Al Thakhira last year she had excuses that day
* She raced on her own for most of that race
* She had at excuses in the Clyde Stakes before that at Ayr
* She had the longest absence of the last 20 winners of that race
* CORAL MIST won that Clyde Stakes and is a big player
Selection
CORAL MIST 13/2 Each Way
VALONIA 11/1 Saver Bet
A y r 2.40
Evs My Tent Or Yours, 5/1 Montbazon
7/1 Court Minstrel, 8/1 Clever Cookie, 11/1 Flaxen Flare
12/1 Cockney Sparrow, 14/1 Cotton Mill, 25/1 Ifandbutwhynot
33/1 Swing Bowler, 40/1 Barizan, 40/1 Silk Hall.
The Scottish Champion Hurdle gives us a chance to see
if MY TENT OR YOURS the Champion Hurdle 2nd is able
to give weight to some smart horses. I have no idea and
all I can do is look at similar horses like him coming via
the Champion Hurdle. There were 13 that tried and 1 of
these won. However MY TENT OR YOURS ran far better
in the Champion Hurdle than any previous horse trying
to win this from the same race. That may be significant.
Previous Champion Hurdle raiders that tried to win this
were often well beaten at Cheltenham. None managed
to achieve as much as MY TENT OR YOURS has and my
hope is he has the class to give all that weight away. I
would make sure I couldn't lose money if he does win.
Selection
MY TENT OR YOURS 11/10
Win Bet
N e w b u r y 2.55
7/4 Kingman, 7/2 Night Of Thunder, 6/1 Lat Hawill
7/1 Astaire, 7/1 Berkshire, 14/1 Golden Town, 16/1 Supplicant
20/1 Windfast, 50/1 No Leaf Clover, 100/1 Master Carpenter.
* The Greenham is a trial for the 2000 Guineas
* None of todays runners come from the Dewhurst
* Thats the best trial race so we have to look elsewhere
* BERKSHIRE has to come down from a Mile
* He wouldn't be my first choice doing that
* LAT HAWILL - 2 once raced maiden winners run and 1 won
* I don't think you could rule him out
* I'd have expected him shorter if he was fully tuned up
* I feel the same about GOLDEN TOWN at a big price
* SUPPLICANT - Not sure 7f or this ground will suit
* ASTAIRE hard to judge from a 6f race
* I couldn't find a horse with 4-5-6 runs coming from 6f
* There will probably be more natural 7f horses
Shortlist
* KINGMAN must have a strong chance
* My only worry would be whether he needs further
* Rule out Gosden at your peril
* NIGHT OF THUNDER - No problems with his profile
* The 2001 and 2007 winners had similar profiles
Selection
NIGHT OF THUNDER 11/4 Win Bet
KINGMAN 7/4 Saver Bet
* For every #10 Staked
* #4 win Kingman and #6 Night of Thunder
* I prefer that to betting Night of Thunder each way
N e w b u r y 3.30
8/1 Enobled, 10/1 Brownsea Brink, 10/1 Foxtrot Romeo
10/1 So Beloved, 12/1 Gabrial4s Kaka, 14/1 Bronze Angel, Dubawi Sound
14/1 Jacob Cats, Ocean Tempest, 14/1 One Word More, 14/1 Secret Art
14/1 Sweet Lightning, 16/1 Highland Duke, Tinghir, 20/1 Charles Camoin
20/1 Moonday Sun, 25/1 Amulet, 25/1 Bluegrass Blues, 25/1 Brocklebank
25/1 Magic City, 33/1 Burano, 33/1 Dixie4s Dream, 33/1 Spa4s Dancer
40/1 Tellovoi, 50/1 Askaud.
* The Spring Mile is an 8f Handicap
* I don't think it's worth a long preview today
* I looked at Newbury 8f handicaps with 12 + runners
* Since 2007 there has been 18 of these races
* Horses drawn 1-2-3 have a 0-49 record in these races
* Horses drawn 22 or higher have a 0-19 record
* I'd be inclined to ignore the very low and high numbers
* These horses look to have very difficult draws
* BROCKLEBANK - DIXIE4S DREAM - BROWNSEA BRINK
* SPA4S DANCER - CHARLES CAMOIN - JACOB CATS - HIGHLAND DUKE
* Horses aged 4 and 5 dominate
* They have won the last 12 renewals
* Male horses aged 6 or more are 1-90 in since 1997
* I think that really does mean we stay with 4-5 year olds
* Horses from 7f or shorter have a poor 1-68 record
* I would eliminate all horses doing this
* I'd ignore horses with 3 or more runs this season
* This leaves a shortlist of 7 horses
Possibles
* ENOBLED - Only 1 winner was a 4yo filly
* None came from a 3yo handicap or had so few runs
* AMULET is a 4yo filly. Not for me from a Listed Race
* BRONZE ANGEL - Not sure he will be fit enough first time
* TINGHIR - The stable form is a concern
* SO BELOVED - Can't discount well drawn
Shortlist
* FOXTROT ROMEO - Many similarities to the 2007 winner
* GABRIAL4S KAKA - The last 3 winners ran this season
* They all came from the Lincoln or Spring Mile like him
* He has more chance of getting home on this ground
Selection
FOXTROT ROMEO 12/1 Win Bet
GABRIAL4S KAKA 12/1 Win Bet
A y r 3.50
Coral Scottish Grand National
Handicap Chase Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 4m110y
8/1 Green Flag, 9/1 Mendip Express, 10/1 Sam Winner
12/1 Roalco De Farges, 12/1 Tidal Bay, 12/1 Trustan Times
12/1 Yes Tom, 16/1 Edmund Kean, 16/1 Godsmejudge
16/1 Hadrian4s Approach, 16/1 Merry King, 16/1 Midnight Appeal
16/1 Roberto Goldback, 20/1 Lie Forrit, 20/1 Rigadin De Beauchene
25/1 Alpha Victor, 25/1 Lackamon, 25/1 Mister Marker
25/1 Nuts N Bolts, 33/1 Adrenalin Flight, 33/1 Al Co
33/1 Baile Anrai, 33/1 Battle Group, 33/1 Fill The Power
33/1 Mcmurrough, 40/1 Sole Witness, 50/1 Ballybough Gorta
50/1 Pure Faith, 50/1 Summery Justice, 66/1 Sir Du Bearn.
* The Scottish National is a 4m Handicap Chase
* The recent winners had the following Chase runs
* 6 18 4 10 16 13 10 19 6 24 21 14 14 5 9 10
* Previous winners had the following runs that season
* Every past winner had at least 3 runs that season
* 6 5 3 3 5 4 4 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 5 3 5
* I would want at least 3 and no more than 7 run
* RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE has to go with 1 run this season
* ROBERTO GOLDBACK is 12 year old
* That's too old for me with just 4 runs this season
* TIDAL BAY is also too old aged 13 and comes from a bad trial race
* I'd avoid all horses that ran in the English Grand National
* You have to go back to 1987 for the last one that won
* Over 85 horses have since tried and failed
* The following horses fail this
* TIDAL BAY has this problem to overcome
* BATTLE GROUP does too - but it doesn't really count
* He refused to race at Aintree. I couldn't trust him anyway
* I looked at horses from Non Handicap Chases
* Horses coming from Non Handicap Chases are 2-71
* We can divide this 2-71 record into 3 different categories
* Horses from Listed or Graded Novice Chases were 0-25
* Horses from Non Graded Novice Chases were 0-26
* Horses from the 4m NH Chase at Cheltenham were 2-20
* Both winners came from this race finishing 2nd and 3rd last time
* We need to oppose horses from all Novice Chases
* Unless they come from the NH Chase at Cheltenham
* ADRENALIN FLIGHT comes from the Cheltenham 4 miler
* That gets him a pass as two winners did the same
* I don't think he will stay thought by Dr Massini
* His runners over 3m 4f and more are 0-25
* ADRENALIN FLIGHT is a horse I don't expect to stay
* Horses from Listed or Graded Novice Chases were 0-25
* SAM WINNER fails this statistic
* SAM WINNER comes from the RSA Chase
* We haven't had a winner from a Graded Chase win this
* Not overkeen on him as a 7 year old anyway
* Horses aged 7 won in 2013 2001 1992 1984 1979 1968 1966
* Horses aged 7 have won just 3 times since 1984
* They have underperformed over the years
* The 3 winners aged 7 had 6 14 6 Chase runs
* They had 6 5 6 runs that season
* SAM WINNER is 7 and has just 4 runs this season
* Thats fewer than all the rare 7yo winners of this
* All recent winners started life in Hurdles or Bumpers
* SAM WINNER did not do this and also has a stamina doubt
* Horses from Non Graded Novice Chases were 0-26
* MENDIP EXPRESS fails this angle
* He only has 4 Chase runs has bled recently and may not stay
* EDMUND KEAN also comes from a Novice Chase
* We know all 26 horses doing this lost
* No horse has won or placed with under 4 Chase runs
* EDMUND KEAN only has 3 Chase runs so isn't safe statistically
* ALPHA VICTOR has 4 Chase runs but refused twice
* He has under 3 runs if you take this into account
* We know 7 year olds have underperformed slightly
* I'd like at least 5 runs this season for any 7 year olds
* HADRIAN4S APPROACH has 3 full runs and one part run
* He fell at the 5th in one of these four races
* Coming off a poor last run there are more likely winners
* Horses that Fell or Pulled Up last time are 0-116
* Thats a really bad record and the stat has lasted decades
* GODSMEJUDGE fails this and has twice run badly in a row
* He looks short of runs this season to me
* MERRY KING fails this too and has a very hard season
* BALLYBOUGH GORTA also fails this
* TIDAL BAY already rejected also fails this
* Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled
* Only 1 past winner did that and he had a run within a week
* MISTER MARKER fails this and isn't bred to fully stay
* He was 3rd last year but had a better preparation
* PURE FAITH also fails statistically coming from 2m 4f
* SUMMERY JUSTICE doesn't offer enough
* Looking at absences 16 of the last 17 winners ran within 57 days
* The only horse that did not was absent 84 days
* AL CO is absent too long
* The following horses are badly weighted
* They are too far out of the weights for comfort
* SIR DU BEARN - BAILE ANRAI- SOLE WITNESS
* FILL THE POWER may not stay this far
* He has 3 runs over similar trips badly beaten each time
* Not from a sire that gets stayers he is not for me
* MCMURROUGH is another unlikely stayer for me
* LACKAMON is an exposed 9 year old
* He has only had 2 proper races this season
* I think he is underraced for this sort of test
* NUTS N BOLTS also looks underraced this year
* His last 2 runs were very disappointing
* The last 15 winners were all 1-2-3-4-5-6 last time out
* NUTS N BOLTS can not say that and is too risky
* LIE FORRIT comes from a Hurdle race
* No past winner did that but his stamina worries me
* His sire hasn't bred a winner within half a mile of this trip
* Look at horses from Cheltenham's Festival
* Those that came from Handicap Chases did not score well
* In the last 17 renewals only 1 horse did this back in 1998
* Horses from a Cheltenham Handicap were just 1-45
Shortlist
* GREEN FLAG comes via a Cheltenham Handicap
* He is also a 7 year old
* That is not the best age and not the best preparation
* Still not enough to rule him out
* Wouldn't say he was well treated but have to respect him
* MIDNIGHT APPEAL has won 6 of his 13 Chase runs
* Not left him the best handicapped horse in the race
* The positives still outweigh the negatives
* YES TOM is a hard to read Irish raider
* He has just had an upgrade in stable
* Did him the power of good as he won well last time
* If he stays he should go very well
* His Sire hasn't had a winner beyond 3m 3f but just 3 tried
* YES TOM has to be shortlisted but stamina is unknown
* He also lacks fluency over fences and the big field worries me
* TRUSTAN TIMES comes from a Hurdle race
* No past winner did that but I won't rule him out on that stat alone
* After all the English National winner has just done the same
* In 2012 he stopped chasing and instead went hurdling
* He has only ran once over fences since when 3rd
* He looks well handicapped at the moment over fences
* I don't see 5 Chase starts being a big problem
* 2 of the last 3 winners had 4 and 6 Chase runs
* There have been 8yo winners with 5-6-7 Chase runs
* He's out of the weights but with him I don't mind
* He is too well handicapped to let that put me off him
* TRUSTAN TIMES does have to prove he will stay this far
* ROALCO DE FARGES had almost 2 years off before this season
* Just 3 runs this year but he did win last time out
* He will need more today but I couldn't rule him out
* I'd give him a chance despite 5lbs wrong at the weights
Selection
ROALCO DE FARGES 12/1 Win Bet
TRUSTAN TIMES 16/1 Win Bet
N e w b u r y 4.05
There has been a very big gamble in this 11f maiden
on John Gosden's EAGLE TOP who is now odds on so
given that I would be reluctant to oppose him. If you
look at the horses that have run last year none have
good Racing Post Ratings. The scores they have had
last year would not won this race by a long way and
every past winner had achieved more as juveniles in
their ratings bar one big priced shock winner. This is
telling me an unraced winner like EAGLE TOP is the
more likely scenario. I couldn't take odds on though.
SAYED YOUMZAIN could be the place option and the
split stake with EAGLE TOP to win looks reasonable.
Selection
EAGLE TOP 10/11 Win Bet
SAYED YOUMZAIN 6/4 Place Bet
T h i r s k 4.35
This 12f handicap plays with your mind a bit. Decided
not to finish it. I liked RETIREMENT PLAN as 100 rated
facing a 0-92 class field. I was not keen on just 3 runs
for him but I was happy to give him the benefit of that
doubt as the 1 horse that has won a similar race with
3 runs (Chai Walla) came from the same stable. What
bothers me most about RETIREMENT PLAN is the 15/8
price. I liked STOMACHION's profile as well and if the
race had smelt like there was no strength in depth He
may well have been an each way bet. The problem is
STOMACHION is far too short at 11/4 now as well given
the favourite could be different class. DARK RULER's a
potential non stayer. His Sire has had 12f winners but
not in anything like this class and I would not bet him.
I like RETIREMENT PLAN and STOMACHION just not at
the current price of either when the field is so big.
No Selection
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