Copy of our analysis for Champions Day at Ascot
Ascot results I added later in Red
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Mathematician 2448
Saturday October 15th
0 Bet today
0 Negative
13 Previews
Champions Day at Ascot. It is a significant
meeting with top class horses so covering it
is important. Not a meeting where I can tell
you much more than you already know so it
will be a difficult battle there to finish ahead.
I have some long priced selections at Ascot.
Prices at 7/1 11/1 7/1 25/1 14/1 but none are
strong enough to stake on the main account.
There are 8 other previews elsewhere. Not
really a message that has thrown up a good
enough bet to stake. So I am going to leave
a bet until tomorrow. Ascot has hijacked the
message really. We have a lot of big priced
today and it is a low stakes speculative day.
Disappointing it but we shouldn't waste our
bullets unless there is something stronger.
Next Message Tomorrow
Today's Bet
No Account Bet
T o d a y s M e s s a g e
I am struggling for confident bets today
Today's Best Bet
Ascot 3.10
LIGHTNING SPEAR 11/1
Each Way [Placed]
I like two David Simcock horses at Ascot
Ascot 1.25
SHEIKHZAYEDROAD 14/1
Each Way [WON]
Ascot 3.10
LIGHTNING SPEAR 11/1
Each Way
Pricewise are on Lightening Spear
Strangely agreeing with Tom Segal Today
He has also selected another of my big priced bets
Ascot 2.35
£4 Win Bet PRETTY PERFECT 25/1
£4 Win Bet SEVENTH HEAVEN 6/4
£2 Win Bet JOURNEY 7/1 [WON]
What I like about these 3 Ascot races
Is not so much their chances on form
Or even on breeding or statistically
I like their preparations.
The trial races they come from
And the prices as well
So I see all these races as worth small bets
The National Hunt Racing is scrappy
Too much of it. Too many small fields in ideal races
Staying with Non Staked Ascot Mentions
Today's Best Bet
Ascot 3.10
LIGHTNING SPEAR 11/1
Each Way
P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S
M a r k e t R a s e n 1.05
11/10 Desert Retreat, 5/2 One Forty Seven
7/2 Doesyourdogbite, 12/1 Bubba N Squeak.
Novice Hurdle over 2m 4f
Only 4 runners
We are in Educated Guesswork territory
BUBBA N SQUEAK pulled up recently
Hard to make a case for him
DESERT RETREAT has reasonable bumper form
What I don't much like about him
Is his sire Sandmason
His National Hunt runners are just 1-79
I am going with ONE FORTY SEVEN
Based on this statistic
Nigel Twiston Davies
Unraced 4 year olds
October over 2m 4f or more
This trainer has a 4-8 record with these horses
The last to try (Flying Angel) Won
His trainer has a good record with similar types
Selection
ONE FORTY SEVEN 11/8
Win Bet
A s c o t 1.25
10/11 Order Of St George, 9/2 Simple Verse
13/2 Forgotten Rules, 7/1 Quest For More
11/1 Sheikhzayedroad, 14/1 Litigant, 16/1 Nearly Caught
40/1 Sandro Botticelli, 50/1 Suegioo, 100/1 Gold Prince.
This Group 3 race over 2 miles has been stolen
from Newmarket and is formerly known as the
Jockey Club Cup which was run in September.
ORDER OF ST GEORGE is the best horse
He was a superb 3rd in the Arc just 13 days ago
That contributes to one very important issue here
How will a hard recent race affect some of these ?
ORDER OF ST GEORGE - 3rd in the Arc 13 days ago
NEARLY CAUGHT - 3rd in the Prix Du Cadran 2 weeks ago
QUEST FOR MORE - Won the Prix Du Cadran
The Prix Du Cadran is a grueling race over 2m 4f
The Arc is a surpreme test only 13 days ago
You have to worry about so little recovery times
I don't think you can bet any of these with confidence
Not without running the risk the race comes too soon
ORDER OF ST GEORGE is a short priced favourite
I can not get excited with such a hard 12f recent race
He has to step up half a mile in trip as well
I feel I must look for an each way alternative
LITIGANT is a seasonal debutant
I don't mind that too much for a high class horse
But he was well beaten in last years race
And he is a horse with a history of Leg problems
Connections say his legs are like Charlie Chaplain
There is a breeding doubt about him as well
Look at the Pattern races winners sired by Sinndar
Those who raced over 1m 6f or more were 0-18
He hasn't had a Listed or Graded winner past 13f
FORGOTTEN RULES has raced once this year
I am not overkeen on having just 1 run in a year
Especially as that was a recent run as well
SIMPLE VERSE is a 4yo filly
This has not been a good race for fillies
None have won in 25 years now
Her sire has now finally had a 2m Group winner
There is a stamina doubt about her though
That stamina doubt and the record of fillies
And the fact she has never raced over 2m before
Leave me thinking she has enough to prove
SHEIKHZAYEDROAD won the Doncaster Cup last time
When this was the Jockey Club Stakes
That Doncaster race was a brilliant trial race
The 1999 2000 2003 2004 2005 winners prepped there
We can't see it in the same light now the race is in October
But I would far rather have come from that race
Than to have run in Group 1's in France 2 weeks ago
Selection
SHEIKHZAYEDROAD 14/1
Each Way
M a r k e t R a s e n 1.35
11/4 Like A Diamond, 4/1 Hoke Colburn
9/2 Strait Of Magellan, 11/2 Big Thunder, 6/1 Action Replay
7/1 New Member, 12/1 Southport, 66/1 Rossington.
This is a 2m Maiden Hurdle
Some of these are impossible to rate
Unraced horses. Seasonal Debutants
Hurdling Debutants as well.
All I can do is give the best profile
May not produce the winner of course
But it will produce a selection
Horses aged 4
Males only
Winning Bumpers last time
Absent over 5 months
There were 16 horses with this profile
They had a 8-16 record finishing as follows
W 11 W 3 W 5 W W 6 3 W 5 W 3 W 5
HOKE COLBURN shares this 8-16 record
HOKE COLBURN 5/2 is the statistical choice
Catterick 1.45
The more runs the better at this track
The 2 past renewals had 4 and 5 runs
I would have shortlisted these two horses
VAULTED
RAG TATTER
No strong angles to seperate them
RAG TATTER each way 7/2 is a guess
A s c o t 2.00
5/2 Quiet Reflection, 5/1 Shalaa, 6/1 The Tin Man
7/1 Twilight Son, 8/1 Librisa Breeze, 8/1 Mecca´s Angel
14/1 Brando, 16/1 Signs Of Blessing, 33/1 Donjuan Triumphant
40/1 Don´t Touch, 50/1 Mobsta, 50/1 Mr Lupton
66/1 Growl, 66/1 Jack Dexter.
This is a Group 2 race over 6f. There are 18 previous
renewals of this race. Most were run here but most of
them were run in September as the Diamed Stakes so
not the safest race to do from a statistical point of view.
The worst winner of this race
Did so in a Racing Post Rating of 116
GROWL has never bettered a 106 rating
He does not look good enough
MR LUPTON has never achieved that either
MOBSTA is underraced with 1 run since May
JACK DEXTER is older than all winners
I don't fancy DONJUAN TRIUMPHANT
Not as a 3yo with a poor last run
SHALAA has raced just once this season
That is not an appealing thought for a 3 year old
Not coming back just 2 weeks after a win
When he has been off a year with a Pelvic Injury
I don't want to risk MECCA´S ANGEL
He is the only horse that comes from a 5f race
Horses his age doing that are poor
He is drawn on the wide outside of the field
This is further than he ideally wants
And running in France last time adds risk
LIBRISA BREEZE was impressive last time
That was a career best but it was over 7f
This is a Group 1 race over 6f
I can't bet a horse who has never raced at 6f before
LIBRISA BREEZE has never done that yet
DON´T TOUCH is an unlikely winner
BRANDO won the Ayr Gold Cup
I looked at similar races for horses from handicaps
I can find 3yo winners but none aged 4 or more
BRANDO as a 4yo is not like any winners
Shortlist
QUIET REFLECTION - High class sprinter
But a 3yo filly absent 6 weeks is not ideal
And she has been on the go since April
SIGNS OF BLESSING - Talented French raider
TWILIGHT SON - 2nd last year when drawn 20 of 20
Every chance this year despite 3 months absence
THE TIN MAN - Every chance if the ground suits
Selection
£4.00 Each Way THE TIN MAN 7/1 [WON]
£1.00 Saver SIGNS OF BLESSING 12/1
£1.00 Saver TWILIGHT SON 6/1
Catterick 2.20
9/4 Starlight Romance, 4/1 Echoism, 7/1 Safwah
8/1 Ce La Vie, 12/1 Hollywood Style, 14/1 Ocelot
100/1 Enlighten Me.
Fillies Maiden over 7f
Like the 1.45pm the more runs the better
I could not bet the unraced SAFWAH or ECHOISM
Both from sires with poor records with these types
ECHOISM's unraced 2yo's are 1-32 and 0-26 on turf
CE LA VIE is also unraced and opposed
I am shortlisting 2 horses
OCELOT - Not out of this at a big price
STARLIGHT ROMANCE
No Selection
A s c o t 2.35
9/4 Seventh Heaven, 5/2 Zhukova, 6/1 Journey
8/1 Speedy Boarding, 10/1 Queen´s Trust, 16/1 Bateel
20/1 Architecture, 20/1 Even Song, 25/1 Pretty Perfect
33/1 Bocca Baciata, 33/1 California, 33/1 Promising Run
66/1 Maleficent Queen.
Group 1 over 12f for Fillies and Mares
I don't have a strong opinion in this race
The winner rarely steps up in distance
I am against the trip jumpers
SPEEDY BOARDING and BATEEL are up in trip
ARCHITECTURE is also up in distance
I don't want to be with ZHUKOVA
She has raced just once since May
I think Stall 1 will hurt her as well
Look at 12f races here since 2011 with 10 + runners
Horses drawn 1 have a weak 1-57 record
Shortlist
SEVENTH HEAVEN looks the best horse
The problem with her is the price
Especially as she is drawn on the outside
I am going to buy her out of the race as a saver
JOURNEY offers more in her price
Making her a saver as well
PRETTY PERFECT 25/1 can't be ruled out
I am taking a chance on her for one reason
She comes from the best trial race
Selection
Small Stakes
£4 Win Bet PRETTY PERFECT 25/1
£4 Win Bet SEVENTH HEAVEN 6/4
£2 Win Bet JOURNEY 7/1
C a t t e r i c k 2.55
7/4 English Summer, 5/2 Trendsetter,
5/1 An Fear Ciuin 11/2 Biff Johnson
10/1 Astra Hall
This is a Claiming race just short of 12f
Tight little race with just 6 runners
ENGLISH SUMMER has won this race in 2014 and 2015
He is trying to win it for the third time
No surprise at all if he wins
But he is 9 now and his last 2 runs were poor
He was in far better form in previous seasons before this
AN FEAR CIUIN drops from 2m to 12 furlongs
No horse won a similar race doing that aged 4 or more
BIFF JOHNSON wouldn't be my choice
There are better profile and better numbers
I felt the same about ASTRA HALL as well
Better weighted horses with better numbers
TRENDSETTER has some good numbers
His last 4 Racing Post Ratings are 90 90 88 81
That will probably be good enough to win this
The 5 past winners won in ratings of 88 64 83 86 85
He has to prove 12f on soft suits him well enough
But so do most of the other runners as well
I just preferred him in a tight and open race
Seletcion
TRENDSETTER 5/2
Win Bet
A s c o t 3.10
7/4 Minding, 5/2 Ribchester, 5/1 Galileo Gold
10/1 Awtaad, 12/1 Lightning Spear, 14/1 Jet Setting
25/1 Hit It A Bomb, 33/1 Hathal, 33/1 Stormy Antarctic
40/1 Mitchum Swagger, 66/1 Breton Rock
100/1 Adaay, 500/1 Barchan.
The Queen Elizabeth II Stakes is fascinating
again but the majority of previous renewals
were run earlier in the year and at a different
track so that problem needs bearing in mind.
I will start with some numbers
Racing Post Ratings
Within the past 12 months
8f races
Ratings of 110 or more
124 Galileo Gold
123 Galileo Gold - Ribchester - Ribchester
122 Awtaad - Awtaad
121 Minding - Galileo Gold
120 Awtaad
119 Minding - Minding - Lightning Spear
119 Lightning Spear - Jet Setting
117 Galileo Gold - Hathal
116 Galileo Gold - Mitchum Swagger
116 Stormy Antarctic - Stormy Antarctic - Stormy Antarctic
115 Lightning Spear - Lightning Spear
114 Mitchum Swagger - Hit It A Bomb - Hit It A Bomb
113 Breton Rock
112 Awtaad - Ribchester
111 Breton Rock
110 Galileo Gold- Mitchum Swagger
RIBCHESTER - Joint 2nd on my Racing Post Ratings
I have my doubts he stays this far in Group 1 Class
One of his numbers came in France
The other was also a slow pace race at Goodwood
This is a real stiff uphill mile
The sire has had 2 female Group 1 winners over 8f +
Both were in slowly run races
Male horses by Iffraaj running over 8f or more
Have a 0-18 record in Listed Class or higher
I would question his stamina here despite his record
Especially with one of the longest absences as well
ADAAY looks a doubtful stayer
Doesn't have the numbers over a mile
BRETON ROCK has never won over a mile
MITCHUM SWAGGER shouldn't have the class
Past winners had the following runs that season
5 5 4 4 4 4 4 6 4 3
The last 9 winners all had at least 4 runs that year
I can't bet HATHAL with just 1 run
HIT IT A BOMB is opposed with just 2 runs as well
STORMY ANTARCTIC has too much to prove
His limit seems to be a Racing Post Rating of 116
Equalled it 3 times never bettered and that isn't enough
JET SETTING won 13 days ago
Not convinced that is a healthy preparation
If you look at all past renewals
Horses that raced in the previous 24 days were 0-28
No horse has won this with a recent run
She is a small filly as well not for me
Shortlist
ADAAY - Entitled to be on the shortlist
High Class and comfortably in the top few
Has slipped under the Radar a bit
But there is no good reason why he can't win
But he has been on the go since March
GALILEO GOLD has every chance
Tops my Racing Post Ratings table
Has a sound each way chance
MINDING is absolutely top class
I could say fillies have a dismal record in this race
But she is no ordinary filly winning 2 classics
It all depends on how she gets back at a Mile
The only past winners to come from 10f or more
Were back before 2006 and were all 5 year olds
There are question marks
She has never raced at Ascot for one
But she is top class so can not be ruled out
LIGHTNING SPEAR - 5 year olds score best
The main worry is he is only 6th best on the numbers
But there is little between the best of these
And he didn't start racing until June this year
He can't have been expected to win his first 2 runs
Not in Group 1 races when clearly underraced this year
His run in France is easily excused
And he won a Group 2 easily last time
There could be a lot more from him
I just prefer his preparation than most others
Selection
LIGHTNING SPEAR 11/1
Each Way
C o r k 3.25
3/1 Galilean, 6/1 Circus Ring, 6/1 Rock In Peace
8/1 Jose Echegaray, 8/1 Sea Haar, 8/1 Tang Dynasty
8/1 Thomas O´malley, 10/1 Beast, 12/1 Althiba
16/1 Cleona, 20/1 Greenpanda, 20/1 Magnification.
This is a Nursery over a Mile
GALILEAN is Aidan O'Brien
Always interested in his topweights in Nurseries
I am going to look elsewhere though
His Racing Post Ratings are 82 82 78
That is lower than his handicap mark of 86
But my main problem is a combination
Of a very recent run 5 days ago and just 3 runs
If I look at horses with under 5 runs
When running in the previous 11 days
I find a 0-36 record which makes him unsafe
CIRCUS RING fails a similar angle
I could not bet him running over 6f under a week ago
THOMAS O´MALLEY also fails the same statistic
A recent run when inexperienced seems no help
Some of the bottomweights may not have the class
CLEONA falls into this category
GREENPANDA does not offer nearly enough
BEAST - I don't like his profile
One of those with sexy connections hard to rule out
But there are horses with far safer profiles
I have the same view with ALTHIBA
I don't want a filly with 3 runs from a maiden
I can not risk TANG DYNASTY at the moment
Heavy recent defeat and regressive numbers
Shortlist
SEA HAAR - Her raw profile is fine
But she has been operating in far easier races
This is a much better race than she is used to
ROCK IN PEACE - One of the best profiles
Has to prove he will stay though
Only 1 juvenile by Kodiac has won over 8f +
When the ground was softer than good
And he is a smaller horse which I don't like
JOSE ECHEGARAY flopped badly last time
That was when favourite in a very good Nursery
You could blame the ground
But he had just won on similar ground before that
If he bounces back he could easily win this
Selection
Small Stakes
£4 Win Bet JOSE ECHEGARAY 12/1
£4 Win Bet SEA HAAR 12/1
£2 Win Bet ROCK IN PEACE 5/1
C a t t e r i c k 3.30
11/2 Distant Past, 7/1 Demora, 8/1 Aleef
8/1 First Bombardment, 8/1 Fumbo Jumbo, 8/1 Udontdodou
10/1 I´ll Be Good, 10/1 Ocean Sheridan, 10/1 Tylery Wonder
12/1 Pipers Note, 16/1 Confessional, 16/1 Ladweb
16/1 Tangerine Trees, 20/1 Desert Law.
Class 2 Handicap over 5f
11 Past renewals
The interesting statistic is about 3 year olds
In this race horses aged 3 have a 0-33 record
That has to be a worry much as there are plenty of them
If you look at horses with under 17 previous runs
They have a 0-30 record in this race
Lighter raced horses and 3yo's win these races elsewhere
But on this track they have struggled over the 11 renewals
If I look at 3 year olds that have won elsewhere
The only profile I can accept for a 3yo
Is having 8-13 career starts
Running within a Month
ALEEF does not have enough runs for this track
FUMBO JUMBO is a 3yo filly with 16 runs
I don't see enough positives in that profile
We know 3 year olds are 0-33 in this race anyway
FIRST BOMBARDMENT is an exposed 3yo
Likewise I would look elsewhere
The rank outsiders do not offer enough
CONFESSIONAL looks an unlikely winner
TYLERY WONDER is probably best left alone
I don't think his recent numbers are enough
I don't fancy PIPERS NOTE without soft ground form
I´LL BE GOOD looks underraced to me
I feel the same about DEMORA as well
She is a mare and very short of runs
Her 38 day break is the longest in the race
She has only raced once since April
I wanted more runs for a mare as old as 7
Win lose or draw her profile is very unsafe
OCEAN SHERIDAN can't be ruled out
But Stall 14 of 14 may or may not help
And he has not raced over this trip for a year now
He has very limited runs over 5f
That would worry me in a class he has never won in
UDONTDODOU is a 3yo
We know these are 0-33 in this race
He is hard to read with 8 runs absent 32 days
The types of 3yo's that won similar races elsewhere
Had close enough profiles to him so I will respect him
But it is hard to bet a 3yo in this race
And Stall 13 of 14 is not certain to help him
He does look very well handicapped
I would consider him around 9/2 for a saver
DISTANT PAST - Strong chance with one concern
He has never raced on this track before
That is the only box I can not tick
Selection
DISTANT PAST 5/1 Win Bet
UDONTDODOU 4/1 Saver Bet
A s c o t 3.45
11/8 Almanzor, 9/4 Found, 5/1 Fascinating Rock
12/1 Jack Hobbs, 20/1 Midterm, 20/1 My Dream Boat
20/1 Us Army Ranger, 25/1 Racing History
50/1 The Grey Gatsby, 100/1 Gabrial
200/1 Maverick Wave.
The Champion Stakes is a Group 1 over 10f
Not as straight forward as I would like
FOUND won the Arc just 13 days ago
I am uncomfortable with the quick return
She was 2nd in this last year after running in the Arc
But she had a harder race this year and is older
Whilst we have had 2 recent winner from the Arc
No Arc winner had won this race in decades
And I just feel I can't rely on her because of that
JACK HOBBS has 168 days absence
Every Group 1 race in September-October any distance
The longest absence was 154 days
JACK HOBBS is off a bit too long for me
ALMANZOR is clearly the horse to beat
3 year olds have not done that well recently
They are 0-21 since 2008
No historical problem with 3yo's overall though
Stall 1 may not play in his favour
But he still looks the most likely winner
At the prices I am buying him out of the race
Making ALMANZOUR a saver
With FASCINATING ROCK the main choice
He won the race last season
Selection
£6 Win Bet FASCINATING ROCK 7/1
£4 Saver Bet ALMANZOUR 6/4 [WON]
S t r a t f o r d 3.50
6/4 Lostock Hall, 5/2 Vivas, 6/1 Restraint Of Trade
10/1 Hill Fort, 10/1 Lord Ben, 12/1 Diamond Rock
14/1 Mahlers Star.
Handicap Hurdle over 2m 2f
I don't like LOSTOCK HALL much
4 year olds from Novice Hurdles struggle
He won a very soft race recently
The odds on favourite fell at the second
Left him with nothing to beat
I would question his stamina as well
RESTRAINT OF TRADE has not been running well
He could bounce back now he goes back hurdling
But on his recent flat form not easy to like
MAHLERS STAR may need more runs
I think he looks unfit and out of form
DIAMOND ROCK doesn't offer enough
LORD BEN is 11 years old
He has just downgraded stables
Coming from a Chase he is opposable too
HILL FORT is a seasonal debutant
If he is wound up and fit he does have a chance
I would shortlist him despite fitness concerns
VIVAS makes the most appeal
Has a good recent run when second
Selection
VIVAS 9/4
Win Bet
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