Mathematician 1825
1 Account Bet
Kempton 4.25
COLEBROOKE 14/1 - 16/1
Each Way
Sorry the message is late
I have just had trouble connecting online
I have 4 options today. choosing what should
be the account bet is down to so many different
factors not least Luck. I feel he's the best bet at
16/1 given 8 runners. I should put a conditional
bet saying all 8 must run but I won't as some will
want to risk it for the big price. If there is a non
runner then reduce stakes. He is the Least likely
of my options. It is likely he will lose but I prefer
big priced horses on the account and the price
and field size swing it his way.
M e s s a g e C o n t e n t
Some very watchable racing today full of quality
horses. I don't feel it is a day to get too ambitious.
I've done just 8 Previews and kept it manageable
as have not roamed too far off the beaten track.
I have ignored lots of races. It is a compact sort
of message. We have to chose from four options.
M e s s a g e H i g h l i g h t s
I don't want to bother with short priced
bets today but I feel this pair should win.
Kempton 3.10 - Irving 10/11
Fairyhouse 3.15 - Mount Benbulben 6/4
When you watch Mount Benbulben I would also keep
a close eye on ON HIS OWN the main danger as he is
my Grand National early fancy. Bet him now at 25/1 in
case he wins today. It won't matter if he doesn't win.
Four Bets from the message
Lingfield 1.45
RIVELLINO 7/1 Each Way
This selection flys against the stats of this race as he's
had a recent race and all past winners had absences.
I am ignoring that. I think he won with something in
hand last time and has an improving profile. It might
not be the cleverest each way bet. I might have been
better with a saver on Tarooq but I'm going each way.
Lingfield 2.15 - RANDOM SUCCESS 9/4
Lingfield 3.30 - GRANDEUR 6/4
Each Way Double
On paper a really good each way double mixing the
improving RANDOM SUCCESS and the class horse of
his race GRANDEUR. My only real worries are traffic
problems for Random Success and Grandeur getting
help up and finishing too late. I think both will win.
Newcastle 2.55
SEVEN WOODS 16/1 Each Way
SUN CLOUD 8/1 Win Bet
I wanted to sort the Eider Chase out and have ended
up with two 7 year olds something I didn't expect. I'm
certain SEVEN WOODS is value but whether he's man
enough for the race I don't know but I have so many
doubtful stayers I am hopeful. SUN CLOUD has raced
in 5 Chases like the last 2 winners and looks betable.
Kempton 4.25
COLEBROOKE 16/1 +
Each Way
Only 8 runners and we are betting an outsider as
My angles are firmly against the 3 market leaders.
It does smell very much of an intelligent loser but
at the prices I think he is worth a bet today.
F r i d a y ' s R e v i e w
I was looking for accuracy and consistency yesterday
and we had that with a W L W L W L W L W message.
Five winners in 9 Previews and some reasonable odds
as well so I am pleased with that. I got the main calls
right about what not to bet and not to trust and we did
ok at the top of the message. It was quite an effective
message and I felt pleased with the overall picture.
P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S
LINGFIELD 1.45
9/2 Ladies Are Forever, 5/1 Hoof It, 5/1 Tarooq
7/1 Hawkeyethenoo, 7/1 Rivellino, 10/1 Forest Edge
10/1 Nocturn, 12/1 Ballista, 14/1 Rummaging
20/1 Hitchens, 20/1 Iptisam, 50/1 Bravo Echo.
This is a 6f Listed race. The seven previous winners
of this were all absent over a month which included
LADIES ARE FOREVER winning last year with a 98
day break. Not sure about her this year. She is older
and now exposed. She wasn't last year and this year
her absence is significantly longer and she now faces
more runners. Not sure I could trust any statistics here
given there are only 7 similar races but as yet no past
winner was aged 8 or more. HITCHENS looks unsafe
as a 9 year old out of form. I'm against NOCTURN as
he's raced just once in months. The worse weighted
horses are IPTISAM and BRAVE ECHO neither appeal.
I don't want RUMMAGING with no experience of this
track. The race has always gone to horses that had a
break of over a month and that's alien to how I work
as I base much of my stuff on fitness so it's not really
a race that naturally suits me. I tried the following.
* Racing Post Ratings
* Numbers over 100
* 6f Lingfield only
* Since 2012 only
113 Ballista
110 Tarooq
108 Hawkeyethenoo - Hoof It
105 Forest Edge - Rivellino
104 Ladies Are Forever
102 Ladies Are Forever
101 Hawkeyethenoo Tarooq
100 Rivellino Hitchens
It is anyones guess whether BALLISTA will run his race
or flop again. HAWKEYETHENOO is 8 now and none his
age have won this yet. HOOF IT has some numbers that
tell me he could win but hard to know if he is capable
of delivering and his jockey's never ridden him before.
FOREST EDGE would not be first choice from a 5f race.
Shortlist - RIVELLINO - TAROOQ
I think TAROOQ has to be included and we could save
on a track record holder here. I prefer RIVELLINO who
is a risky bet. He has to improve but when he won last
time here he did so with a lot in hand. That was a very
good handicap and he had so much in reserve. I think
Stall One will make or break him. No Draw advantage
at all here on recent results. He could have many here
in a lot of trouble. His Racing Post Ratings have shown
progression (98 100 105) for a while now and he could
easily improve enough to win. Tactically there will be
no surprise to see trouble and he could win or flop and
whilst he lacks an absence like past winners he has the
momentum and looks an improving sprinter these days.
Selection
RIVELLINO 7/1
Each Way
LINGFIELD 2.15
15/8 Random Success, 13/2 Spellmaker, 13/2 Valmina
15/2 Glastonberry, 9/1 Multitask, 9/1 Welease Bwian
12/1 My Kingdom, 14/1 Lujeanie, 16/1 Chevise
20/1 Haadeeth, 25/1 Parisian Pyramid, 25/1 Pharoh Jake.
This is a Class 3 handicap over 6f but it is unusual
and not typical of normal Class 3 handicaps. I say
this because every horse in this race comes from
Class 5-6 races. They all come up two grades and
that is very rare. Nothing drops in class or comes
from even the same class. It makes it look a very
weak Class 3 contest. RANDOM SUCCESS looks a
serious improver from a powerful stable. Initially
I was worried that he comes from a Class 6 race.
That is a jump of 3 Grades but now I realise that
every other horse is jumping two grades then he
looks much more acceptable. She won a weaker
race last time but she did it easily and had plenty
in hand and the Racing Post Rating she clocked
suggests she is throw in off a mark of 70. I would
be worried about the big field and several others
have chances but she looks very interesting here.
I'm reluctant to oppose RANDOM SUCCESS. I find
it very interesting that when she won last time out
she recorded a Racing Post Rating of 79.
* MULTITASK - His best RPR is 74 after 18 runs
* SPELLMAKER - His best RPR is 71 after 16 runs
* WELEASE BWIAN - His best RPR is 78 after 36 runs
I have been banging on about PARISIAN PYRAMID for
a while now . He has just downgraded stables. I don't
think he will win this but his last run is excusable and
he has backclass in spades. What puts me off is that
he is 0-24 running round a left handed bend and thats
probably why he has never ran on sand. I will be upset
if he wins but I don't think he will and prefer the favourite.
* RANDOM SUCCESS has to be part of the staking
* The burglary bet could be a place bet on him at 4/6
* I could save or split stake the race but I wont
Selection
RANDOM SUCCESS 9/4
LINGFIELD 2.50
4/1 Grey Mirage, 5/1 Absolutely So, 6/1 Alfred Hutchinson
8/1 George Guru, 10/1 Bertiewhittle, 10/1 Newstead Abbey
10/1 Skytrain, 12/1 Hasopop, 12/1 Nassau Storm, 12/1 Yeeoow
16/1 Apostle, 20/1 Brocklebank, 25/1 Dr Red Eye
33/1 Verse Of Love.
This is a Class 2 handicap over 7f. There are only 9 of
these races in February. With a massive field I needed
a far bigger sample size than just 9 races . There is an
angle that did interest me based on these 9 renewals.
* Male horses aged 4-5-6
* Coming from 7f or 8f handicaps
* Running within 12 days
* Beaten under 4 lengths last time out
* Having at least 11 career stats
* There were 10 horses in 9 renewals with this profile
* They finished W W 5 W W 2 W W 3 W
* There was a 7-10 record with similar horses
* Only 2 horses in this race have this profile
* APOSTLE and BROCKLEBANK
* I don't suppose for a minute either will win
* Both are 16/1 and more though and share this 7-10 profile
* Interesting to see how they run as good profile outsiders
* APOSTLE and BROCKLEBANK are speculative outside bets
N e w c a s t l e 2.55
13/2 Our Island, 7/1 Relax, 7/1 Sun Cloud, 15/2 Smoking Aces
10/1 Financial Climate, 10/1 Royale Knight, 12/1 Presented
12/1 Safran De Cotte, 12/1 Swatow Typhoon, 12/1 Wyck Hill
14/1 Seven Woods, 16/1 Ballypatrick, 16/1 Junior, 16/1 Tarquinius
25/1 Chavoy, 33/1 War On.
* The Eider Chase is a handicap chase over 4m 1f
* I looked at recent renewals of this race
* I looked at 52 similar races in February or March
* Every handicap chase at 3m 6f + in Class 3 or higher
* Past winners of this had the following runs that season
* 5 3 5 3 4 4 6 7 7 4 3
* Today all horses have the bare requirement here
* Having a recent run is important in this race
* Past winners had the following absences
* 20 17 14 63 28 13 7 23 23 21 29
* Again I don't see an absence I can't live with
* Since 1990 the Eider Chase winners had these Chase runs
* 5 5 7 13 21 9 7 13 4 13 8 16 11 9 19 29 13 17 9
* SWATOW TYPHOON only has 4 Chase starts
* That would make him the joint least experienced chaser
* SWATOW TYPHOON also comes from a Novice Chase
* No past winner of this race managed that
* I will be surprised if he makes the frame
* WAR ON only has 4 runs and lacks backclass
* TARQUINIUS is an out of form 11 year old
* Needs a career best when he is running badly
* His Sire (Turgeon) hasn't bred a 3m 4f winner yet
* All 34 that tried have failed and he may not stay 4m 1f
* CHAVOY hasn't raced over fences since 2012
* He's never run over fences in this country before
* Hammered over hurdles 7 days ago he is hard to like
* FINANCIAL CLIMATE is a 7 year old
* 9 of the 52 winners were aged 7
* They had 7 3 3 9 3 5 5 7 8 career runs
* FINANCIAL CLIMATE has 10 more than all of them
* Not keen he has never been in this class before
* FINANCIAL CLIMATE may not stay this far either
* His Sire Exit To Nowhere is not one I like in these races
* So far all 22 of his runners over 3m 3f or more have lost
* BALLYPATRICK is a 7 year old
* Not the best age and 53 days absence won't be easy
* I wouldn't want a 7yo with that kind of absence here
* ROYALE KNIGHT has won over 4m at Kelso
* It was a small field though and not heavy ground
* This distance is over 20 seconds longer to run
* ROYALE KNIGHT will do well to stay this far
* His Sire's record over marathon trips is weak
* Career high mark I don't think he will get home
* OUR ISLAND has to be respected
* I tipped him in last years race but it was abandoned
* Stamina wise his sire's had a winner over 3m 4.5f no further
* He has bred a Grand National 3rd though
* OUR ISLAND has also placed on heavy in a 4m chase
* There are things that worry me about him
* He has lost all 15 times he raced in Class 3 or higher
* This is a Class 2 and he hasn't yet won in a similar race
* His field in fields of 14 or more also worries me
* When running in them he has the following record
* 7th 5th 5th PU 8th 6th 9th 7th
* Can he win in a field larger than he has before
* When racing in a Class he has yet to win in before
* SMOKING ACES is 10 and has 17 Chase runs
* 13 of the last 14 winners were lighter raced over fences
* I looked at horses aged 10 or more with 14 or more Chase runs
* When beaten last time they had a miserable 2-161 record
* Both winners ran better than he did last time
* My angles suggest we should oppose SMOKING ACES
* JUNIOR also fails this 2-161 statistic
* JUNIOR last won 26 months ago
* He hasn't been convincing for a long time
* He has won over 3m1f110y before
* He hasn't won over further. None bred by Singspeil have either
* JUNIOR isn't easy to like over this far a distance
* Not with Topweight on heavy ground
* SAFRAN DE COTTE is an 8 year old
* He comes from a 3m 4f Handicap Chase
* I looked at 8 year olds doing this
* They all went close to winning last time
* They all had more recent races
* He doesn't offer enough on his profile
* PRESENTED is 7 and won last time out
* The only 7yo winners following up had 3 and 5 chase runs
* PRESENTED is a bit exposed with 9 Chase runs
* His jumping was not good last time either
* WYCK HILL is a 10yo absent 56 days
* I wanted a more recent race for a 10yo
* He hasn't shown enough this year with 3 poor runs
* I can see the argument many are giving for him
* It is based on a lot of assumptions though
* Given JPMcManus owns him this could be a prep race
* He is in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham. Not for me today
* RELAX has won 2 of his last 3 races
* Won off 127 and 132 and now he is off 139
* Having 21 chase runs really puts me off
* Recent winners had 5 5 7 13 21 9 7 13 4 13 8 16 11 9 runs
* Nil Desperandum did win in 2007 with 21 Chase runs
* He was different class though and all others had far fewer
* RELAX has to try and win a 3rd race in 4 runs
* With 22 Chase runs I have my doubt
* He will be several points shorter just because of his trainer
Shortlist
* SUN CLOUD is going nicely at the moment
* He won a 3m 6f handicap last time out
* The 2012 winner was 7 and did a similar thing
* That winner had 5 Chase just as SUN CLOUD does
* That winner is close enough to earn him respect
* The last 2 winners had 5 Chase starts as he does
* Up in weight and class he will have to improve
* Lightly raced though that is quite likely
* SUN CLOUD looks one of the best options here
* SEVEN WOODS is a 7 year old
* He comes from a hurdles race which I am ignoring
* He was beaten 45 lengths but over hurdles turn a blind eye
* I like the fact he has 7 chase starts
* He looks a dour stayer to me
* His Sire has a good record in 4m races
* He needed his first run of the season
* His second run was over far too short a distance
* 3rd run of the year he ran very well at Chepstow
* He was a close 2nd with a long gap back to the 3rd
* Last time over hurdles can be ignored
* A handicap mark of 128 seems very fair
Selection
SEVEN WOODS 16/1 Each Way
SUN CLOUD 8/1 Win Bet
FAIRYHOUSE 3.10
13/8 On His Own, 15/8 Mount Benbulben, 11/2 Roi Du Mee
12/1 Lion Na Bearnai, 12/1 Quito De La Roque, 14/1 Buckers Bridge
16/1 Make A Track.
The Bobbyjo Chase interests me for a number of reasons.
I think MOUNT BENBULBEN will win the race for starters
but I really fancy ON HIS OWN to win the Grand National.
I mentioned him twice recently. You want to take 25/1 as
he has a much better chance than that. It wouldnt be any
surprise if ON HIS OWN won this race and he might do it
but I prefer the other horse. Go back to Christmas and the
new year and ON HIS OWN was going well in handicaps
albeit classy ones. MOUNT BENBULBEN was beaten only
17 lengths in the King George a top class race. That was
such a good run considering he made plenty of mistakes.
That's what he does but there is a big difference between
jumping round Kempton at Grade 1 pace to running here.
I think he has the class to win it giving 6lbs to On His Own.
Selection
MOUNT BENBULBEN 13/8
Win Bet
KEMPTON 3.15
11/10 Irving, 2/1 First Mohican, 8/1 Amore Alato
8/1 Cup Final, 20/1 Dubai Prince, 20/1 Vaihau
25/1 Germany Calling.
The Dovecote Hurdle is not a great trends race but I am
struggling to see past IRVING here. He has an unbeaten
W W W record with Racing Post Ratings of 119 122 146.
No recent winner of this had raced just once before and
that puts me off his main rivals. FIRST MOHICAN is short
of runs with one hurdle start. CUP FINAL also has only 1
previous race. AMORE ALATO has a few runs and could
easily place but he may get out speeded here as he has
the look of a stayer. I couldn't see past IRVING here.
Selection
IRVING 10/11
Win Bet
LINGFIELD 3.30
11/8 Grandeur, 4/1 Robin Hoods Bay, 7/1 Chookie Royale
8/1 Modernstone, 10/1 Anaconda, 12/1 Hajras
14/1 Sennockian Star, 20/1 Tinshu, 25/1 Uramazin
33/1 Two Days In Paris.
This is the Winter Derby Trial. The record books show
that Two Days In Paris, Tinshu, Uramazin fall short of
the required quality. I respect ANACONDA but I do try
to avoid Stall 1 here. SENNOCKIAN STAR is surely too
exposed to be winning with so long off the track. This
should go to GRANDEUR if official ratings are believed.
He is rated 117 some way clear if his rivals. He is rated
far higher than CHOOKIE ROYALE who has never been
tested in Pattern company and may not stay. He's rated
a stone better than ROBIN HOODS BAY who has so far
lost every time he went higher than handicaps. He has
a big ratings edge on the filly MODERNSTONE as well.
The weights strongly point to GRANDEUR winning this.
Selection
GRANDEUR 6/4
Win Bet
KEMPTON 4.25
2/1 Royal Player, 9/4 Full Shift, 5/1 Minella On Line
10/1 Colebrooke, 11/1 Songsmith, 12/1 Gores Island
14/1 Valid Reason, 16/1 Hidden Justice
25/1 Minella Special.
* This is a 2m 5f Handicap Hurdle
* Long History to this and experience matters
What we have here is a race dominated by unsuitable
lightly raced horses. This is probably going to be won
by a Stat Buster as too many fancied horses are wrong.
* ROYAL PLAYER is 5 with just 2 hurdle runs
* FULL SHIFT is 5 with just 2 hurdle runs
* MINELLA ON LINE is 5 with just 2 hurdle runs
* Past winners had the following National Hunt Runs
* 11 15 12 8 12 10 7 9 9 7 17 6 9 5 9 10 9 6
* Past winners had the following Hurdle Starts
* 7 7 12 8 9 6 7 9 8 7 16 6
* You want between 5 and 15 National Hunt runs
* Every past winner had 6-12 previous hurdle runs too
* ROYAL PLAYER- FULL SHIFT- MINELLA ON LINE fail this
These three horses dominating the market are not like
any past winners of this race. If you take lightly raced
hurdlers in this race with under 5 previous hurdle runs
you find a weak 0-42 record. I looked at similar races
at other tracks. Very rare to see a 5 year old win from
a Novice Hurdle when very lightly raced. There was a
horse do this at Plumpton (Preuty Boy) in a weaker race
with 3 hurdle runs but as a profile it is flawed. The issue
here is simple. Can we find a bigger priced horse worth
a bet or do we sit back and watch a bad profile horse
win because the race has too many of them to ignore.
I don't want MINELLA SPECIAL with just 1 bad run this
season. SONGSMITH is out as a seasonal debutant too.
HIDDEN JUSTICE hasn't shown enough this year. There
are two horses that could offer a glimmer of hope here
COLEBROOKE - More suitable than most of these
COLEBROOKE 16/1
Each Way
****************************************************
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Best Wishes
Guy
www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk
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