Mathematician 2430
Saturday September 24th
1 Bet today
0 Negative
7 Previews
A rather optimistic Saturday message
7 Previews including the Cambridgeshire
Not a short price in sight today
I am highlighting 4 of my 7 races
The main selections are 12/1 12/1 4/1 20/1
So I can hardly expect many winners
But I am mainly interested in the account
And trying to choose the most suitable bet
Can only be hopeful given the prices
And this being the 18th message in 19 days
And thats why the message is late
Today's Bet
Newmarket 4.45
MAMA AFRICA 20/1
Each Way
I was going to have 2 savers
On Clef 6/1 and Arwa 10/1
I am going without them though
Keeping it as a clean and simple 20/1 bet
You can always save if you want to
Obviously this is likely to lose
Last Saturday we managed a 20/1 placed bet
Trying with another huge priced bet today
T o d a y s M e s s a g e
Highlighting 4 races today
Brief comments after each race
With a view to picking one for an account bet
Cambridgeshire Handicap Day
That race is one of the Priorities today
BANKSEA 12/1 is my Cambridgeshire horse
I think one if 4 horses will take this race
BANKSEA 12/1
American Artist 22/1
Spark Plug 16/1
Brave Zolo 16/1
We could go £3.50 Each Way
And have 3 x £1 Savers
As I have staked it in the preview
But my number 1 in the race
Has to be BANKSEA each way at 12/1
Newmarket 4.10 Cambridgeshire Handicap
BANKSEA 12/1
Each Way
Do I really want to stake this ?
And rely on Jamie Spencer holding him up ?
When he has never ridden the horse before
My staked bet is the same price
And has about 20 fewer horses to beat
Market Rasen 2.35
£3.50 Each Way HASSLE 10/1
£1 Win Bet KAPSTADT 12/1
£2 Win Bet WISTY 7/1
Interesting Listed Handicap Hurdle
I felt there were 3 horses I could select
Keeping it simple
The jockey worried me on Hassle
The race isn't really in my comfort zone
But my angles seem reasonably clear
They don't like the 1st 2nd 3rd favourites
I don't really want to bet 4 horses
WISTY probably should be the selection
But I think KAPSTADT is interesting
And HASSLE the main choice
Navan 4.35
REALT MOR 9/2
Each Way
Handicap Chase
Love some of the issues about this bet
Class horse dropping heavily in class
Just one or two things I can't predict
Like how a last race fall will affect him
The positives outweigh the unknowns though
What also worries me
Is there are no genuine outsiders to rule out
If I went with him we'd end up with 100/30
No negatives and be forced to bet him blind
Newmarket 4.45
£3 Each Way MAMA AFRICA 20/1
£2 Win Bet CLEF 6/1
£2 Win Bet ARWA 10/1
This is a bit of a leap of faith
I wanted CLEF as a saver
ARWA could easily have been the main bet
Not sure about MAMA AFRICA
I love the price and liked her last run
But will she have the class off bottomweight ?
22/1 each way does make some appeal
And I am tempted despite being least likely winner
In the end I commited to her
And dropped the savers
Daily Negatives
No Negative Today
Results of Negatives
27 correct bets from 38
P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s
R i p o n 2.05
5/4 Await The Storm, 4/1 Spruce Lodge
4/1 Uncle Charlie, 10/1 Ideal Bounty, 12/1 Performing
16/1 Royal Celebration, 16/1 Silk Mill Blue
25/1 Haafhder Thought, 50/1 Yelow Bird.
6f maiden for 2 year olds
May just be worth opposing the favourite
AWAIT THE STORM has the b est form
His numbers are reasonable without being impressive
But he has been sold for only 12k
And he has not raced in 85 days now
And he is not the biggest of horses either
Statistically I find him unsafe
Because horses who have 4 or more runs
Have yet to win similar races with absences
September and October
2yo Maidens over 6f or more
Run on Grass and not sand
Horses with 4 or more career starts
Absent longer than 53 days
There is a 0-57 record with these types
Won't be surprised if he wins
But I think with a weak profile he is too short
There is not a clear cut alternative
No Cast iron each way bankers
SILK MILL BLUE - Plenty I don't like about him
But he has a Racing Post Rating of 68
And comes here after 2 poor draws
SPRUCE LODGE is hard to read
Just 1 run over 5f ten days ago at Beverley
Very hard to win at Beverley first time out
Could well be the one but not convinced
Statistically his 10 days absence is complicated
If he had 12-13-14 days he'd have been safer
If he had 6-7-8 days he'd have been weaker
Hard to judge. Not my favourite sire either
UNCLE CHARLIE - 1 run and a long absence
Not a problem with this profile statistically
Selection
£6 Win Bet UNCLE CHARLIE 6/1
£4 Win Bet SPRUCE LODGE 7/2
Small Stakes
C h e s t e r 2.30
11/4 Undiscovered Angel, 4/1 Aimez La Vie
9/2 Celestation, 11/2 Hathfa, 6/1 Kitsey, 7/1 Singing Sands
10/1 Twiggy, 50/1 Bed Of Diamonds
100/1 I Dare To Dream.
2yo Maiden over 7f for fillies
Open looking race
Aside from the two outsiders
I DARE TO DREAM looks outclassed
BED OF DIAMONDS looks outclassed
I am against AIMEZ LA VIE
Not bothered about Stall 10
But I just do not see her staying this far
This is 4 seconds longer than the 7f she comes from
I have looked at her pedigree
I don't think she stayed last time
I don't believe she will get the trip today either
TWIGGY has 4 runs
Best Racing Post Rating of 66
I think she will need to find too much improvement
The worst winner of this race
Won in a Racing Post Rating of 72
CELESTATION has 3 runs
Should go close on his 2nd run
Would not win on her 1st run or her last run
She is from a first season sire called Excelebration
This sires runners over 7f or more are just 1-40
On Ground softer than good they are 0-11
If you look at the sires runners over any trip
When the ground was softer than good
His runners have a 0-28 record
7f on softer ground on the back of a poor last run
And I am not prepared to give her the benefit of doubt
UNDISCOVERED ANGEL has 1 run
First reaction was not safe enough
When so many others have more experience
When she only came from a 6f runner maiden
Only at lowly Carlisle when she was 16/1 outsider
My statistics show several once raced winners
They tell me I can have to consider her
But she is at a disadvantage in experience
Her sires 2 year olds are only 1-39
Her sires soft ground runners are 0-20
She could win but she is the shortest price
So I don't want her at the price given the doubts
Shortlist
SINGING SANDS has run 5 times
Racing Post Ratings of 69 71 65 73 70
Reasonable chance and certainly no negative
But not much evidence of progression
Stall 9 makes it a bit harder to select her
But I'm not hung up on the draw here
She has plenty of early pace
I think she has twice gone off too fast
She has ran out of petrol on her last 2 runs
I think a blistering early gallop cost her victory
HATHFA was an expensive horse
Made her a negative on her debut
She then disappointed at Newbury
Her last run was reasonable
Racing Post Ratings of 71 71 70 are steady
She could be a threat if she stays this far
KITSEY needs to improve but he could
I am confident he was Not busy on his debut
There is a good chance he didn't stay last time
Selection
£4 Each Way SINGING SANDS 7/1
£1 Win Bet KITSEY 10/1 +
£1 Win Bet HATHFA 8/1
M a r k e t R a s e n 2.35
5/2 Red Tornado, 11/2 Cloonacool, 13/2 Sir Toby
8/1 Wisty, 9/1 Hassle 12/1 Thunder Sheik,
14/1 Kapstadt, 14/1 The Outlaw.
2m Handicap Hurdle
This is a Listed Class race
18 similar races in September
If you look at 4 year olds in these races
They have a 0-18 record
RED TORNADO is a 4yo and favourite
Given he has 70 days absence
And has to carry Topweight as well
I do not think a 4yo is safe with that profile
Look at all Class 2 , Listed and Graded Handicap Hurdles
Run in September over any and every distance
There are 28 of these races at any distance
Horses aged 4 have a 1-29 record
The only winner won just 6 days beforehand
RED TORNADO is only a small horse anyway
I think we have to oppose him
SIR TOBY has only had 3 hurdle runs
Beaten in a Novice Hurdle last time as well
If I look at all similar races in September
Run over every distance
Horses aged 7 or less
Coming from Non Handicap Hurdles
Under 4 hurdle runs were 0-10
None that were beaten last time
Won in either September or October
SIR TOBY may win but his profile is unsafe
CLOONACOOL won this last year
He had an absence last year just as he does this year
When he won last year he only had 10st 4lbs
This year he has 11st 10lbs
If we look at 28 similar Class races in September
Run in Class 2 or higher over every distance
Horses absent more than 6 weeks were 4-97
Those with 9 or more hurdle runs were 0-59
CLOONACOOL has this problem and is rejected
THUNDER SHEIK also has this problem
THE OUTLAW is trying to win a Listed Handicap Hurdle
He has only won a selling novice hurdle before
He's never ran in any handicap hurdle
This may be too warm for him
WISTY has just won by 17 lengths
That was a Class 2 handicap hurdle 10 days ago
That is as good a profile as any
He is a bit exposed but brings big positives too
KAPSTADT must have a chance
Landed a 2015 Hat Trick
You can forgive his soft ground runs
This is a faster ground horse
Decent flat rating as well
I don't see why he cant win this
HASSLE - Huge Chances but inexperienced pilot
Selection
£3.50 Each Way HASSLE 10/1
£1 Win Bet KAPSTADT 12/1
£2 Win Bet WISTY 7/1
N e w m a r k e t 4.10
7/1 Third Time Lucky, 12/1 Bravo Zolo, 14/1 Banksea
14/1 Spark Plug, 16/1 Carry On Deryck, 16/1 Examiner
16/1 Master The World, 16/1 Very Talented
20/1 Celestial Path, 20/1 First Sitting, 20/1 Gm Hopkins
20/1 Knight Owl, 20/1 Treasury Notes, 25/1 Azraff
25/1 Bronze Angel, 25/1 Dark Red, 25/1 Educate
25/1 Erik The Red, Oasis Fantasy,
33/1 American Artist, 33/1 Bancnuanaheireann
33/1 Bastille Day, 33/1 Chil The Kite, Goodwood Mirage
33/1 Lat Hawill, 33/1 Ode To Evening 33/1 Stipulate,
33/1 Zhui Feng 40/1 Balmoral Castle,
40/1 Interconnection, 50/1 Ginger Jack.
The Cambridgeshire is a Handicap over 9f
The last winner aged 7 or more
Was back in 1992 some 24 years ago
That horse had won 8 days beforehand
The previous winner that age was in 1980
So I feel relaxed about opposing this age group
GINGER JACK is out aged 9
BANCNUANAHEIREANN is out aged 9
EDUCATE is too old as a 7yo
He won this in 2013 but a mark of 112 is extreme
BRONZE ANGEL is 7 and is badly underraced this year
CHIL THE KITE is wrong aged 7
STIPULATE is wrong aged 7 down from 1m 6f
BALMORAL CASTLE is 7 and also underraced recently
I am wary of horses lightly raced this season
If a horse has had 8 or more career starts
I would want at least 3 runs this season
Almost all had at least 3 runs in the last 4 months
I am looking for horses that looked underraced
EXAMINER has just 1 run since April
He is 5 and has not raced in 113 days
No horse aged 5 or more has won absent 7 + weeks
EXAMINER looks underraced
GM HOPKINS is 5 and absent 70 days
None his age have won absent that long in decades
Throw in a very tough draw and topweight he is out
KNIGHT OWL is a 6yo
We know all winners his age and older
Had at least 4 runs that season
KNIGHT OWL only has 3 runs this year
That is my only objection to his chance
I have looked at horses with just 1-2-3 runs
In the previous 9 months
You can argue the toss about a few winners
All going back before 1994
But since then none of them have won
I just don't think 3 runs is safe enough this year
KNIGHT OWL and EXAMINER are not for me
THIRD TIME LUCKY won this last year
He was a 3yo then with 6 runs that season
Now he is a 4yo with only 3 runs that season
That would be a big worry for me
THIRD TIME LUCKY has 14 career starts now
Look at how many runs past 4yo winners had
10 5 8 14 12 7
There was a winner with 14 runs like him
But that horse (Educate) has 7 warm up races
If you look at 4 year olds with 13 or more starts
They have a pretty miserable 1-144 record anyway
He is higher in the weights this year
He missed his prep run recently
And I would much rather reject him with 3 prep runs
VERY TALENTED is a 3yo
He only has 2 runs this season
He has raced just once since April
If we look at past 3yo winners
Winners aged 3 had the following runs that season
6 4 5 6 8 5 5 4 6
VERY TALENTED has 2 fewer than any of them
That has to be a serious worry
Win lose or draw too risky a profile for me
I doubt he will stay anyway
I feel the same about INTERCONNECTION
GOODWOOD MIRAGE - Beaten too far last week
RAISING SAND is a very lightly raced 4yo
I don't think he has the backclass to win
ZHUI FENG is the wrong type of 3yo
I needed a better last run
No 3yo has won this beaten as far as him last time
ODE TO EVENING has the same problem
He is more exposed than any 3yo winner as well
CELESTIAL PATH - Not the right type for me
Not well beaten in a Group race last time
FIRST SITTING comes from a Listed race
He does not get the benefit of the doubt
Not off a handicap mark of 106
Since 1998 the highest winning rating was 104
Look at horses who had handicap marks of 105 or more
Since 1998 they have a 0-47 record
MASTER THE WORLD has this problem
He is rated 108 and 4lbs higher than all past winners
Throw in Stall 1 and a months break not for me
OASIS FANTASY was well beaten last time out
Yet he has a higher mark than any past winner too
CARRY ON DERYCK is rated 105
No horse has won with that rating befre
He is also drawn 35 of 35
Personally I find that hard to stomach
If you look at every Newmarket race since 2011
That were 2m or shorter
No horse won any race drawn 32 of higher
Too much to overcome in my view
Horses well beaten last time are dreadful
If you look at horses from 9f or shorter
Who were beaten over 5 lengths last time out
You find a 0-139 record
DARK RED fails this 0-139 record
BASTILLE DAY fails it too and was beaten too far
He looks the wrong kind of 4yo anyway
ERIK THE RED has similar problems
Bit exposed for a 4yo
Didn't do enough last time
And may not get home in a race like this
AZRAFF also fails this 0-139 record
He is too exposed as a 4yo
Horses aged 4 with 15 or more runs are 0-115
AZRAFF is wrong and is opposed
LAT HAWILL was beaten too far last time over 8f
He also fails the 0-139 statistic
TREASURY NOTES is a 4yo who won last time
No 4yo has followed up a win when so exposed
Doesn't come from a Grade 1 track like almost all winners
TREASURY NOTES has 15 career starts
We know Horses aged 4 with 15 or more runs are 0-115
Horses aged 4
Coming from an 8f race
Running within 4 weeks are 0-67
TREASURY NOTES fails this 0-67 statistic
AMERICAN ARTIST fails this 0-67 statistic
BASTILLE DAY also fails it as well
Possibles
BRAVO ZOLO is 4 and absent 175 days
There were 2 winners aged 4 with long absences
These were back in 2003 and 2000
These 2 winners won off ratings of 87 and 92
BRAVO ZOLO has to defy a rating of 103
That is a far harder task than either that did it
Thats my problem with BRAVO ZOLO
SPARK PLUG is 5 and comes from a mile race
Horses aged 5 doing that were 2-55
Those absent over 14 days were 0-39
SPARK PLUG fails that 0-39 record
I wouldn't rule him out though
He has been laid out for this race
And is running at his best at the moment
AMERICAN ARTIST does fail a stat
But I am half inclined to forgive him that
The 2013 and 2014 runner ups were quite like him
BANKSEA is 3 and with 9 career starts
With runs this year his profile is fine
He should have improvement to come
I think he has the best overall chance
Selection
£3.50 Each Way BANKSEA 12/1
£1 Saver AMERICAN ARTIST 22/1
£1 Saver SPARK PLUG 16/1
£1 Saver BRAVO ZOLO 16/1
N a v a n 4.35
5/1 Myles Ahead, 5/1 Realt Mor, 6/1 Na Trachtalai Abu
9/1 Empresario, 10/1 Colbert Station, 10/1 Hash Brown
10/1 Valours Minion, 11/1 Black Zero, 11/1 Topper Thornton
12/1 Ballyfinboy, 12/1 Illtakeitfromhere, 14/1 Drumhart
14/1 Kylestyle.
2m 4f Handicap Chase
Obviously wide open
What I like about this race
Is if I can get COLBERT STATION beaten
And he is after all a 12 year old
Who has not won in 3 and a half years
Then REALT MORE who is rated 133
Only has a 0-123 class field to beat
Now this was a high class horse who went wrong
He has been nursed back to some kind of form now
Two runs ago he won a Chase
But if you look at his last run in the Kerry National
REALT MOR was going very well when he fell
He was staying on in 4th place and was far from beaten
That was a Graded 0-156 Chase
REALT MOR was one of the lighter weighted horses
So he goes from getting weight from superior horses
To conceding weight to inferior horses
This is a huge drop in Class for him
Now he could have all sorts of problems still
Not least confidence problems after a fall
But he does look to be running very well right now
If this horse runs his race and has no hangover
From falling last time out
Then he could well blow these horses away
The annoying thing for me
Is having no chance of predicting his performance
Or how his last run has affected him
But he is the Class act
He looked good to me on video last time
And I am giving him the benefit of the doubt
Should really be a win bet but I am tempted each way
Selection
REALT MOR 9/2 - 5/1
Each Way
N e w m a r k e t 4.45
5/1 Pichola Dance, 5/1 Salamah, 6/1 Blushing Rose
7/1 Clef, 7/1 Parsnip, 7/1 Romantic View, 10/1 Arwa
10/1 Tonahutu, 12/1 Lady In Question, 14/1 Harmonise
16/1 La Casa Tarifa, 20/1 Mama Africa
20/1 Suffragette City.
Fillies Nursery over 7f
Only 13 similar races at this time of year
I am against ROMANTIC VIEW
She has the most weight and longest absence
All 13 winners of similar races ran within 6 weeks
ROMANTIC VIEW has 99 days off the track
She also comes from a Pattern race
Only one of the 13 winners managed that
Past winners had the following career starts
5 2 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 8 4 3 4
Horses with 4 career starts are clearly best
Only 1 of the winners had 2 career starts
None of them had just 1 previous run before
That's why I oppose SALAMAH with 1 run
BLUSHING ROSE ran 7 days ago
That would worry me
It feels like she is here as an afterthought
Rather than here as a long established plan
If I look at all similar races to this
Horses that raced within 21 days were 0-33
That suggests there is sense in that argument
So win lose or draw I am looking elsewhere
SUFFRAGETTE CITY fails the same statistic
If you look at horses from Maiden races
There is a very average 5-81 record
Those absent longer than 4 weeks were 0-28
HARMONISE has this problem
SUFFRAGETTE CITY comes from a maiden
But was beaten in that race and has 6 runs now
None were as exposed as she is from maidens
TONAHUTU comes from a Maiden
That was only an Auction Maiden though
PICHOLA DANCE won a maiden last time
Just 2 career starts has not been ideal in this race
LA CASA TARIFA did not do enough last time
Shortlist
PARSNIP is an option with 3 runs
But her profile would be better with 4 runs
MAMA AFRICA is hard to read
Instant reaction was a Class 2 race may be too warm
But several light weights have won this
But she had an impossible task last time
And I thought she ran extremely well
That was her first run beyond 5f and a huge field
And her Racing Post Ratings
Suggest she can win off 68
LADY IN QUESTION - Average profile
Ran in the same race as Mama Africa last time
Ran well enough to earn respect
Main worry would be drawn 1
ARWA also has 3 runs
I would prefer more
But she comes from a good trial race
The 1999 2010 and 2012 winners came from that race
That tempts me a bit
Much depends on how Stall 13 of 13 works for her
CLEF has more to offer than most
Selection
£3 Each Way MAMA AFRICA 20/1
£2 Win Bet CLEF 6/1
£1 Win Bet ARWA 10/1
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Best Wishes
Guy Ward
www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk